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Ricardo @ Take A Breath 2012

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Ricardo at the third edition of Take A Breath, workshop organized by Loccioni Group, to discuss the potential of innovation in the automotive industry. …

Ricardo at the third edition of Take A Breath, workshop organized by Loccioni Group, to discuss the potential of innovation in the automotive industry.

On 28th and 29th June 2012, 50 companies of 12 countries - including automobile manufacturers (OEMs), automotive component manufacturers (Tier 1) and the international scientific community - met in Italy in Marche region, to discuss the future of the motor.The international speakers parterre - from Volksvagen to Daimler, from General Motors to Ferrari, with Denso, Magneti Marelli, Continental, Delphi, Bosch, IAV, Cummins, Fev, Ricardo with the Polytechnic of Turin and Chalmers University - has drawn the technical, economic and scientific scenario of the sector as well as the current international strategies.

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  • 1. The Future for Gasoline EnginesAn overview of key gasoline engine drivers and technologies for 2020Ken PendleburyDirector Gasoline EnginesJune 2012 www.ricardo.com © Ricardo plc 2012
  • 2. There are many drivers for gasoline engine development but thecurrent emphasis on fuel consumption is driven by legislation Powertrain Technology Drivers Engine Implications Legislation, Emissions Down-sizing/down-speeding strategy for CO2 Climate Cost-effective EU5/6 and SULEV Low parasitic loss designs Change and Energy CO2 and fuel economy Advanced combustion systems Security Robust real-world FE improvement Hybrid engine solutions Functionality and Safety Fun-to-drive performance, package Reliability and service costs Low engine speed transient performance Car Buyers Efficiency Package to enable improved cabin space Fuel economy and ownership cost Optimum solution for real world FE and emissions, not just legislation Environment Emerging awareness of climate change Increased specific power and torque Brand Identity Transient performance Performance, driveability and NVH 2 and 3 Cylinder NVH challenges OEMs and Profitability Cost, complexity and commonality Suppliers Cost-effective fuel economy solutions considering total product range Fewer more flexible engine families Cylinder size versus cylinder count Global engine portfolio Emerging market opportunities Client Confidential January 2012 © Ricardo plc 2012 2
  • 3. The growth of both regulation and targets for Low Carbon Vehiclessets a major challenge for the road transport sector 270 US-LDV EU, USA, Canada, Australia, China and Japan all have Grams CO2 per kilometer, normalized to NEDC California-LDV 250 Canada-LDV legislation / agreements for fuel 230 EU economy or CO2 Japan EU Proposal for vans 210 China – 175 g/km from 2014-16 190 S. Korea – 135 g/km by 2020 Australia 170 USA has set target of – 35.5 mpg by 2016 150 – 54.5 mpg by 2025 130 2025: US 2025: – To be implemented over Solid dots and lines: historical performance 107 110 Solid dots and dashed lines: enacted targets China 2020: 117 whole of USA by EPA Solid dots and dotted lines: proposed targets Japan 2020: 105 Hollow dots and dotted lines: unannounced proposal EU 2020: 95 Challenging targets: 90 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 – EU 3.9% pa to 2020 [1] Chinas target reflects gasoline fleet scenario. If including other fuel types, the target will be lower. – US 4.7% pa to 2025 [2] US and Canada light-duty vehicles include light-commercial vehicles. EU regulation set at 130 g/km assuming a further 10 g/km is achieved via biofuels and “other non drive cycle related measures” – Long term target is 95 g/km in 2020 Vehicles with CO2 emissions below 50 g/km receive super-credits - Vehicle counted as 3.5 cars in 2012/13, 2.5 cars in 2014, 1.5 cars in 2015 & reverts to direct impact only in 2016 Sources: http://www.nhtsa.gov/staticfiles/rulemaking/pdf/cafe/Oct2010_Summary_Report.pdf www.theicct.org/info/documents/PVstds_update_apr2010.pdf; Client Confidential January 2012 © Ricardo plc 2012 3
  • 4. Traditional passenger car markets are stagnating or in decline,volume growth will come from China, India, S America and SE Asia Passenger Car Sales by Market: 2005, 2010 & forecast for 2015, 2021* (mn units) * Spot forecast 14.6 12.9 14.6 15.8 1.4 1.8 3.2 4.0 2005 2010 2015 2021 26.1 15.7 15.2 16.2 20.9 Russia 10.6 2005 2010 2015 2021 Western Europe 11.9 3.2 2005 2010 2015 2021 1.8 1.6 2.5 3.6 USA 2005 2010 2015 2021 China 4.7 4.2 3.8 4.8 2005 2010 2015 2021 Eastern Europe 2005 2010 2015 2021 1.1 2.2 4.6 10.6 Japan 2005 2010 2015 2021 5.0 2.6 3.2 4.3 India 5.6 6.9 2005 2010 2015 2021 2.0 3.7 SE Asia 2005 2010 2015 2021 South America Region Definitions Eastern Europe: Bosnia, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine South America: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Venezuela, Uruguay South East Asia: Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand Sources: JD Power, Ricardo analysis Client Confidential January 2012 © Ricardo plc 2012 4
  • 5. Diesel penetration will reduce in Europe as Hybrid and Gasolinetechnologies improve. Gasoline remains the dominant globally USA Europe 100% 100% Diesel (CI) 90% 90% 80% 80% 70% 70% 60% 60% Gasoline (SI) 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% Hybrid 20% 20% (Gasoline) 10% 10% 0% 0% 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Hybrid (Diesel) USA passcar & SUV market to remain Europe to maintain gasoline and Diesel predominantly gasoline. Hybrid and EV Some decline in Diesel share expected Electric Vehicles growth but not mainstream until 2025+ particularly in small vehicle segments with & others Diesel will continue to dominate Heavy- growth of advanced gasoline & HEV` Duty sector, and opportunity for Light Japan Duty products to support CAFE strategy 100% 90% 80% 70% Growth Markets 60% 50% China: passcar market to be dominated by gasoline with 40% 30% modest hybrid and EV growth in major cities. Some Diesel 20% growth in SUV/MPV segment 10% 0% 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 India: 32% Diesel passenger cars and growing, strong Strongest growth of hybrid and demand for low cost diesel solutions EVs in Japan - Negligible Diesel Client Confidential January 2012 © Ricardo plc 2012 5
  • 6. Technology roadmaps for gasoline engines focus on CO2 reductionas emission legislation remains less challenging Emissions Euro 4 (2005) Euro 5 (2009) Euro 6 (2014) 130g/km CO2 95 g/km CO2 target kW/l Reduce CO2 and increase kW/l Engine Engine Downsizing, Downspeeding & Hybridisation Concept Energy Recovery / Split Cycle Improved Friction Engine Design Thermal & Lubrication Systems Advanced Structures Variable Tumble Intake Ports Air Handling Twin Scroll, 1050, Twin T/C VGT, E-boost, Compounded Boost Cylinder Deactivation, CPS, VVL Biofuel Homogeneous GDI Combustion 2nd Generation Stratified GDI CAI, WOT, EGR, Lean Boost, Deep Miller Cycle TWC – Optimising Formulation and Substrates Emissions Control LNT GPF 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Source: Ricardo Analysis Client Confidential January 2012 © Ricardo plc 2012 6
  • 7. Gasoline combustion system development pathsBase engine architecture improvements can be applied to all engines such as low frictiontechniques. Combustion research has focused on two parallel paths. Stoich Dev Steps S1 S2 S3 HyBoost S4 S5 S6? Displacement Baseline Downsize Downsize Downsize Downsize Increased EGR Injection PFI Side/Central DI Central DI Central DI Central DI Dilution at Part Load to reduce λ=1 Valvetrain DVVT DVVT CVVL DVVT DVVT + Miller PMEP – requires Air Handling NA FGT Adv.FGT WOT EGR Adv.Boost advanced Aftertreatment 3WC 3WC + GPF? 3WC + GPF? 3WC + GPF 3WC + GPF ignition FC/CO2 0% 15-20% 20-25% 25-30% 25-35% 40%? Lean Dev Steps L1 L2 Volcano L3 L4? Displacement Baseline Downsize Downsize Increased EGR Injection Central DI Central DI Central DI Dilution for Eng.Out NOx λ>1 Valvetrain DVVT DVVT DVVT Control – requires Boosting NA FGT or Adv.FGT Adv. FGT + WOT EGR advanced Aftertreatment GPF+LNT/SCR GPF+LNT/SCR GPF+LNT/SCR ignition FC/CO2 10-15% 25-35% 35-40% 45%? Increasing kW/L = Higher Performance or More Aggressive Downsizing / Increased CR / Reduced Cylinder Count Client Confidential January 2012 © Ricardo plc 2012 7
  • 8. Fuel Consumption Benefit of DownsizingWhile there are two parallel paths to combustion system development, lean technology requiresless downsizing to realise the benefits. Pure downsizing can utilise current aftertreatment 25 Drive Cycle Fuel Consumption Benefit [%] Ricardo LBDI vehicle demonstrator 20 Ricardo "DI Boost" vehicle demonstrator Ricardo Next Generation SGDI turbo (simulation) 15 10 1.8l PFI V’s 1.2TGDI 5 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 Downsize Ratio [%] Client Confidential January 2012 © Ricardo plc 2012 8
  • 9. Downsizing with some electrification will become more commonRicardo HyBoost combines a range of technologies which can be used together or in isolationto achieve the performance larger engines and good fuel economy Base Electrical Belt Starter Energy Engine Supercharger Generator Storage 1.0 litre, 30 Bar 3kW Machine which 6kW in regen, 4 kW Ultra capacitor or BMEP with gives up to 10kW at motoring, advanced lead-acid conventional the crankshaft Used for Stop/Start battery Turbocharger Only used during operation Larger capacity of LA Central DI Lambda=1 aggressive transients Used for torque battery gives greater Good base engine from low speed where augmentation in drive fuel consumption fuel consumption traditional turbo has cycle region improvements at poor response lower cost Technologies combined to give fuel CO2 emissions of 90g/km in current ‘C’ -class vehicle with future glide path to 50g/km Client Confidential January 2012 © Ricardo plc 2012 9
  • 10. Downsizing with some electrification will become more commonRicardo HyBoost combines a range of technologies which can be used together or in isolationto achieve the performance larger engines Hy Boost Operation Downsized, DI, Belt starter turbocharged engine BSG starts engine using 12+x Volts generator Starting In gear stop/start used on cycle BSG used for torque augmentation – Light accelerations Acceleration – Light load pull-away E-Charger used for hard accel’s + - Conventional Cruising Surplus energy can be harvested turbocharger “12+X” energy storage & Electric BSG Generates power for storage controller supercharger Deceleration Client Confidential January 2012 © Ricardo plc 2012 10
  • 11. Downsizing with some electrification will become more commonRicardo HyBoost combines a range of technologies which can be used together or in isolationto achieve the performance larger engines 300 280 260 240 220Torque (Nm) 200 180 160 HyBoost Torque Curve no VTES HyBoost Torque Curve with VTES 140 2.0L Duratec NA PFI HyBoost Torque Curve Large T/C no VTES 120 Best Torque Potential fill-in from VTES Std Fox 100 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500 6000 6500 Engine Speed (rpm) Client Confidential January 2012 © Ricardo plc 2012 11
  • 12. Ford Focus HyBoost vehicle performance attributes Vehicle 2009 Ford Focus 2.0L 2011 Ford Focus 1.6L 2011 Ford Focus 1.0L 2010 Toyota Prius Duratec EcoBoost HyBoost P/T Maximum power 145 (107) @ 6000 rpm 150 (110) @ 5700 rpm 143 (105) @ 5500 rpm 99 (73) @ 5200 rpm [PS(kW)] Hybrid system net power = 136 (100) @ 5200 rpm Peak torque [Nm] 185 @ 4000 rpm 240 @ 1600 rpm (o/b) 240 @ 3500 rpm 142 Nm 0 – 62 mph*** [s] 9.2 8.6 9.2 10.4 sec 31 – 62 mph** [s] 11.9 8.6 11.2 TBC Max. speed [mph] 128 mph 130 mph 128 mph 112 mph Cycle CO2 reduction Baseline (0%) 18% 41 – 47% 47% 150 300 As on NEDC, UCap capacity is too small to store all regen 125 braking energy during decel 250 from high speed 100 200 75 150 pe ( m , O ( ) o g ( ) Se d k / ) S C% Vl a e V 50 100 t 25 50 , ur n A Cre t( ) 0 0 h -25 -50 -50 -100 -75 -150 -100 Veh Spd -200 UCap Voltage -125 UCap SOC -250 UCap Current -150 -300 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 Time (s) Client Confidential January 2012 © Ricardo plc 2012 12
  • 13. Stratified charge engines are an alternative to downsizingAs an alternative to ‘extreme’ downsizing stratified charge engines offer much of the fuelconsumption benefit with a larger engine. Interest primarily from the US. Base Engine Combustion System Fuel Injection Control (Ricardo Volcano) Geometry Systems Systems Lower downsize Geometry designed to ‘A’-nozzle, hollow Control of multiple rations required give best Knock cone injectors injections essential for Base engine parasitic performance necessary for good stratified region loses still key Central DI for best stratification Potential for Boosting technologies control of AFR at the Multiple injections advanced ignition key for best economy spark plug used to control spray system to improve and performance penetration EGR tolerance New injector and control technologies allow fuel consumption similar or better than a current Diesel engine Client Confidential January 2012 © Ricardo plc 2012 13
  • 14. Example of optimised control strategy using CFD and optical engine1500RPM, 3 Bar BMEP WOT using 3 unevenly spaced injectons Client Confidential January 2012 © Ricardo plc 2012 14
  • 15. Ricardo Volcano fuel consumption map Stratified charge engines offer a wide area of good fuel economy. EGR is used to reduce the burden on lean aftertreatment and control knock at higher loads 35 Grey region:Red region: Best BSFC achieved at mid load under boosted conditions. - Lambda 1 operating With this concept it could be possible to over downsized or BSFC [g/kWh]- WOT boosted region with multipleregion downspeed the engine dependant on vehicle application injection strategies for- Combination 30 knock mitigation 340 300 280of closed -- Low pressure cooledspaced late 420 WOT EGR (5 – 15%)injections and can be used whenMIVIS strategy 25 combined with- EGR 0 – 10% Remaining region: advanced boosting and 240 - Lambda 1 .4 - 1 increased CR for operating region, further efficiency bar] 20 230 no EGR required improvements BMEP [b 220 Green region: 15 - WOT Boosted regionLower speed 203 - MIVIS strategy forbest BSFC island best BSFClimited by 240 - EGR 0 % as “off-cycle” 10 210achievable boostpressure – 210 260 Blue region:rematching of - WOT (effectively) NA 280the T/C should 5 stratified region 300improve this - All late, close spaced 340 420 multiple injections - EGR 10 – 30%, 0 dependant on engine 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500 6000 out NOx target Engine speed [rev/min] Client Confidential January 2012 © Ricardo plc 2012 15
  • 16. k1 Fuel consumption of some best in class engines The lean stratified engines from both Ricardo research and Mercedes production engines show fuel consumption better than a benchmark Diesel engine 410 Ricardo Volcano SGDI engine - stoichiometric mode 390 Best-in-class I4 GDI engine 370 Mercedes V6 SGDI - stratified lean mode Benchmark diesel engine 350 Ricardo Volcano SGDI engine - lean stratified mode 330 BSFC [g/kWh] 310 290 270 250 230 210 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 BMEP [bar] Client Confidential January 2012 © Ricardo plc 2012 16
  • 17. Diapositiva 16k1 Remove animtaion and supuefluos engines if possible kjp; 27/06/2012
  • 18. Ricardo Volcano fuel consumption at 2500 rev/minDetailed SGDI engine data show how BSFC can be maintained to high loads whilst not exceedingPMax limits BMEP SGDI Diesel 1 426.1 585.3 450 120 2 300 314.7 Diesel 1bar BMEP 425 BSFC = 585 g/kWh 100 Boost pressure (kPa[g]), Spartk Advance (deg CA 400 80 BSFC 375 BM Diesel BSFC 60 BIC Gasoline Engine BSFC (g/kWh) BTDCF), PMax (bar) 350 Boost 40 Spark 325 PMax 20 300 0 275 -20 250 -40 225 -60 200 -80 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 BMEP (bar) Client Confidential January 2012 © Ricardo plc 2012 17
  • 19. Gasoline EnginesVehicle simulation resultsVehicle simulation shows a 40% improvement in fuel consumption over a conventional NA gasolineengine of similar performance and a 20% improvement over a lambda = 1 engine Performance Power [kW] @rpm 197 Torque [Nm] @rpm 391 Best BSFC [g/kWh] 203* (209) BSFC @2000rpm 2bar BMEP 276* (284) Vehicle : D-segment sedan Vehicle : D-segment sedan Vehicle : D-segment sedan Engine : 3.0 V6 NA PFI dVVT Engine : 2.0L TC GDI dVVT Engine : 2.0 I4 T-SGDI dVVT Transmission : 8AT Transmission : 8AT Transmission : 8AT IWC : 1810kg IWC : 1810kg IWC : 1810kg NEDC FE : 249 g/km CO2 NEDC FE : 183 g/km CO2 NEDC FE : 142 g/km CO2 Best-in-class Central Injector Volcano 2.0L Engine with 2.0L Non-CVVL Engine 2% LNT Re-Gen FC Penalty Client Confidential January 2012 © Ricardo plc 2012 18
  • 20. Sales and technology trends will have an impact on manufacturingEngine capacity and cylinder count has been reducing but in the shrinking premium segmentlarge cylinder counts (6,8 &12) remain dominant. Engine capacity have generally In the premium sector large been reducing cylinder counts are still common General downsizing is evident in all sectors Most premium manufactures anticipate that they will continue with ‘high cylinder count’ engines In luxury and sports product reduced cylinder count and turbocharging are the key means to These engines will become niche and maintain or improve performance manufactured in ever smaller volumes Larger engines will become niche product for mainstream manufactures Client Confidential January 2012 © Ricardo plc 2012 19
  • 21. GasolineFlexible, small volume manufacturing facilities will become commonWhilst downsizing and boosting gives fuel consumption benefits, larger engines will becomeand important niche for many manufacturers. Low volume facilities which are flexible and givethe same quality as traditional facilities will become more prevalent Low volume production Ricardo Engine Assembly Facility State of the art 800m2 facility producing up to 9,000 engines per year Capacity to assemble 5,000 engines per shift per year – Extendable to 10,000 units with double shift Quality must be the same as best conventional engine manufacturing facilities Full hot test facility – Quick load/unlock system – Fully automatic operation No faults forward assembly facility Client Confidential January 2012 © Ricardo plc 2012 20
  • 22. Conclusions Fuel consumption legislation is now the dominant driver for engine development! For the foreseeable future: – Diesel engines will remain popular Europe – The emerging markets show little or no appetite for Diesel engines – High efficiency gasoline engines will be required to achieve legislative fuel economy targets There will be a number of significant trends in gasoline engine development – Continued focus on reduced weight and friction – Downsizing & boosting will be seen in all markets in varying degrees – GDI as an enabling technology will become more prevalent in all but lowest cost engines – In some markets, lean burn will be adopted before extreme downsizing – Lower cylinder count will give us all challenges in NVH I6, V8 and larger engines will become premium and niche driving a requirement for high quality low volume manufacturing facilities with no compromise in quality Client Confidential January 2012 © Ricardo plc 2012 21
  • 23. Cost-benefit analysis for Ricardo research projects CO2 versus cost for powertrain technologies 60%relative to Euro 5 gasoline engine ~2014 BIC Gasoline Hybrid Full hybrid (+30% DS) 50% Battery Mild Hybrid Diesel Flywheel Mild Hybrid Diesel 2009 BIC Gasoline Hybrid Drive-cycle CO2 reduction Syner-D Advanced Conventional Diesel Full hybrid 40% T-SGDI HyBoost ECO Diesel E5 Stop Start 30% 2/4CAR Micro hybrid (12+X BSG) Lean Boost DI (LBDI) Stop-start (Super Starter) Diesel (E4) - no DPF 20% Boosted DI (Stoic) Diesel VVL + Homo DI Gasoline 10% Homo DI + VVT Micro hybrid (12v BSG) Ricardo projects Twin Phaser VVT Latest cars Stop-start (Super Starter) Gasoline (E4/E5) 0% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 350% 400% 450% Increase in cost relative to Euro 5 gasoline engine Client Confidential January 2012 © Ricardo plc 2012 22

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