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Demographic Transition
Demographic Transition
Demographic Transition
Demographic Transition
Demographic Transition
Demographic Transition
Demographic Transition
Demographic Transition
Demographic Transition
Demographic Transition
Demographic Transition
Demographic Transition
Demographic Transition
Demographic Transition
Demographic Transition
Demographic Transition
Demographic Transition
Demographic Transition
Demographic Transition
Demographic Transition
Demographic Transition
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Demographic Transition

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Emily Empel and Heather Schlegel's systems model of the demographic transition. Presented at the World Future Society Conference in Toronto.

Emily Empel and Heather Schlegel's systems model of the demographic transition. Presented at the World Future Society Conference in Toronto.

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  • 1. #wfs12 #besthf 07.29.2012The Demographic Transition Emily Empel I @localrat Heather Schlegel I @Heathervescent
  • 2. Females Aged >100 DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL Females Aged 90-99 Females Aged 80-89 Females Aged 70-79 Females Aged 60-69 Female Birth Rate Female Births Female Deaths Female Death Rate Females Aged 50-59 Technology Birth Control Education Improvements Females Aged 40-49 Females Aged 30-39 Females Aged 20-29 Females Aged 10-19 Females Aged <1-9Variables
  • 3. The Model
  • 4. 11 10.6 High 10 Medium Low 9 8.9 8 Population (in billions) 7.4 7 6.1 6 5 4 3 2.5 2 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050UN Population Projections
  • 5. Africa Asia 10 Latin America and the Caribbean Oceania 9 Northern America Europe 8 7 Population (in billions) 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2250 2250 2300UN Population Projections by Region
  • 6. Population Change Model+Birth Rates Death Rates - = Growth RateThe Demographic Transition
  • 7. Agricultural ~40/1000 Birth rate Growth rate Death rate Industrial ~15/1000The Demographic Transition
  • 8. Transition over Time
  • 9. 65 Age Male Female 15 Stage 1: Expanding Stage 2: Expanding Stage 3: Stationary Stage 4: Contracting Developing DevelopedPopulation Pyramids
  • 10. Food supply improvements. Public health improvements. Decline in infectious disease. Health education. Literacy. Living Costs. Urbanization. Value Systems.Influencing Factors
  • 11. Climate Change. Food Preferences. Resource Constraints. Energy. Healthcare. Education.Global Implications
  • 12. The Model
  • 13. Selected Variables 4 10 6B 2 5 3B 0 0 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 Time (Year) Daughter to Mother ratio : Nigeria Desired family size : Nigeria Total pop : NigeriaBOT - Baseline
  • 14. Selected Variables 400 M 4 10 200 M 2 5 0 0 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 Time (Year) Age 0 to 4 : Nigeria Desired BR : Nigeria Desired family size : NigeriaBOT - Baseline
  • 15. 65 Age Male Female 15 Stage 1: Expanding Stage 2: Expanding Stage 3: Stationary Stage 4: Contracting Developing DevelopedPopulation Pyramids
  • 16. Actual Population Pyramids
  • 17. Literacy VariableThe Model with Literacy Variable
  • 18. Selected Variables 4 4 6B 2 2 3B 0 0 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 Time (Year) Daughter to Mother ratio : Nigeria_education Daughter to Mother ratio : Nigeria Desired BR : Nigeria_education Desired BR : Nigeria Total pop : Nigeria_education Total pop : NigeriaBOT with Literacy Variable compared
  • 19. Total pop 6B 4.5 B 3B 1.5 B 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 Time (Year) Total pop : Nigeria_education Total pop : NigeriaTotal Population BOT with Variable
  • 20. Desired BR 4 3 2 1 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 Time (Year) Desired BR : Nigeria_education Desired BR : NigeriaBOT Birth Rate with Variable
  • 21. Emily Empel I @localratHeather Schlegel I @Heathervescent

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