Demographic Transition

#wfs12 #besthf 07.29.2012The Demographic Transition Emily Empel I @localrat Heather Schlegel I @Heathervescent

Females Aged >100 DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL Females Aged 90-99 Females Aged 80-89 Females Aged 70-79 Females Aged 60-69 Female Birth Rate Female Births Female Deaths Female Death Rate Females Aged 50-59 Technology Birth Control Education Improvements Females Aged 40-49 Females Aged 30-39 Females Aged 20-29 Females Aged 10-19 Females Aged <1-9Variables

The Model

11 10.6 High 10 Medium Low 9 8.9 8 Population (in billions) 7.4 7 6.1 6 5 4 3 2.5 2 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050UN Population Projections

Africa Asia 10 Latin America and the Caribbean Oceania 9 Northern America Europe 8 7 Population (in billions) 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2250 2250 2300UN Population Projections by Region

Population Change Model+Birth Rates Death Rates - = Growth RateThe Demographic Transition

Agricultural ~40/1000 Birth rate Growth rate Death rate Industrial ~15/1000The Demographic Transition

Transition over Time

65 Age Male Female 15 Stage 1: Expanding Stage 2: Expanding Stage 3: Stationary Stage 4: Contracting Developing DevelopedPopulation Pyramids

Food supply improvements. Public health improvements. Decline in infectious disease. Health education. Literacy. Living Costs. Urbanization. Value Systems.Influencing Factors

Climate Change. Food Preferences. Resource Constraints. Energy. Healthcare. Education.Global Implications

The Model

Selected Variables 4 10 6B 2 5 3B 0 0 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 Time (Year) Daughter to Mother ratio : Nigeria Desired family size : Nigeria Total pop : NigeriaBOT - Baseline

Selected Variables 400 M 4 10 200 M 2 5 0 0 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 Time (Year) Age 0 to 4 : Nigeria Desired BR : Nigeria Desired family size : NigeriaBOT - Baseline

65 Age Male Female 15 Stage 1: Expanding Stage 2: Expanding Stage 3: Stationary Stage 4: Contracting Developing DevelopedPopulation Pyramids

Actual Population Pyramids

Literacy VariableThe Model with Literacy Variable

Selected Variables 4 4 6B 2 2 3B 0 0 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 Time (Year) Daughter to Mother ratio : Nigeria_education Daughter to Mother ratio : Nigeria Desired BR : Nigeria_education Desired BR : Nigeria Total pop : Nigeria_education Total pop : NigeriaBOT with Literacy Variable compared

Total pop 6B 4.5 B 3B 1.5 B 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 Time (Year) Total pop : Nigeria_education Total pop : NigeriaTotal Population BOT with Variable

Desired BR 4 3 2 1 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 Time (Year) Desired BR : Nigeria_education Desired BR : NigeriaBOT Birth Rate with Variable

Emily Empel I @localratHeather Schlegel I @Heathervescent

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Demographic Transition

by Emily Empel on Jul 29, 2012

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