Time series solar radiation forecasting

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  • Buenas días, mi nombre es Luis Martín y voy a presentar el trabajo realizado hasta la fecha en el ámbito de la predicción de la radiación solar diaria.
  • He organizado el contenido de la presentación, comenzando por la presentación de los objetivos, revisión de técnicas predictivas para la predicción de la irradiancia solar diaria, después se pasará a describir la metodología empleada en el ensayo propuesto, se presentarán los resultados obtenidos para terminar comentando las conclusiones así como las principales líneas de trabajo en el futuro.
  • Lost component is the difference between extraterrestrial solar irradiance and ground solar irradiance. Therefore, lost component represents the quantity of energy absorbed by the atmosphere. Even this time series is not stationary and has seasonal variations which can be solved differencing consecutive half-days.
  • The result is a time series nonstationary with a probability density function similar to a delta function. This signal is the random part of solar irradiance and is isolated from the deterministic part of solar irradiance
  • Time series solar radiation forecasting

    1. 1. Global solar radiation forecasting with non-linealstatistical techniques and qualitative predictions from Spanish National Weather Service Presented by: LUIS MARTÍN POMARES ENERGY DEPARTAMENT Renewable energy division 5rd Experts Meeting of the IEA SHC Task “Solar Resource Knowledge Management” & MESoR Meeting Wels, Austria 9 – 11 June 2008
    2. 2. OUTLOOK1. TIME SERIES GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION HALF DAILY PROPERTIES2. CLEARNESS INDEX PREDICTIONS3. LOST COMPONENT PREDICTIONS4. LOST COMPONENT + QUALITATIVE PREDICTIONS5. CONCLUSIONS 2
    3. 3. TIME SERIES GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION HALF DAILY PROPERTIES Global solar irradiance half daily time series :Non StationaryNon Gaussian Data Data PreprocessingNon Linear Removing stationarity from time series:  Using clearness index.  Using lost component variable.  Subtracting each value mean value of 2d+1 days.  Removing from time series anual armonic (first armonic from fourier analysis). If the time series obtained is not stationary a good way to achieve so is differencing consecutive days. 3
    4. 4. CIES2008, June 17-21,2008, Vigo (Spain) CLEARNESS INDEX HALF DAILY PREDICTIONS 45.0 ° N IMPROVEMENT OVER PERSISTENCE IN TERMS OF %RMSD  ierrormod el  42.5 ° N improvement = 1 − ÷  ierror ÷ 40.0 ° N • Madrid RRN AEMet 37.5 ° N  persistence  • Murcia RRN AEMet MADRID RRN AEMet 35.0 ° N 15.0 ° W12 .5° W10.0° W 7.5 ° W 5.0 ° W 2.5° W 0.0 ° 2.5 ° E 5.0 ° E 7.5 ° E 10.0 °E MURCIA RRN AEMet M adrid: M ejora frente Persistencia M urcia: M ejora frente Persistencia 24 24 M S (2)-A R (1)/P ersistencia 22 N N (10)/P ersistencia 22 A N FIS (6)/P ersistencia 20 20 18 18M ejo ra % R M SD 16 16 M S (2)-AR (1)/Persistencia NN (10)/P ersistencia 14 14 A N FIS(6)/Persistencia 12 12 10 10 8 8 6 6 1 2 3 Horizonte Predicción (Sem idías) 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 4 Horizonte Predicción (Sem idías) 5 6
    5. 5. CIES2008, June 17-21,2008, Vigo (Spain) CLEARNESS INDEX HALF DAILY PREDICTIONS RMSD FOR BEST MODEL: NN(10) MADRID RRN AEMet MURCIA RRN AEMet 40 40 N N (1) N N (1 ) 38 N N (2) 38 N N (2 ) N N (3) N N (3 ) 36 N N (4) 36 N N (4 ) N N (5)% R M S D P re d ic c ió n S e m id ia ria K t N N (6) N N (5 ) 34 34 N N (7) N N (6 ) 32 N N (8) 32 N N (7 ) N N (9) N N (8 ) N N (10) N N (9 ) 30 30 PER N N (1 0 ) 28 28 PE R 26 26 24 24 22 22 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 H orizonte Pre dic c ión (S em idía s ) H o rizo nte Pre d ic c ió n (S e m id ía s ) 5
    6. 6. CIES2008, June 17-21,2008, Vigo (Spain) CLEARNESS INDEX HALF DAILY PREDICTIONS 1 0.9 0.8KT Semidiario Previsto 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 6 5 0.2 4 0.1 3 2 0 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 1 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 KT Semidiario Observado 0 0 6 0.2 0.4 0.6 Kt Semidiario 0.8 1
    7. 7. EUROSUN2008, October 7-10, Lisbon (Portugal) LOST COMPONENT PREDICTIONS 6000 5000 4000Wm-2 3000 2000 1000 0 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Half Day 7 Differencing day by day
    8. 8. EUROSUN2008, October 7-10, Lisbon (Portugal) LOST COMPONENT PREDICTIONS 5000 4500 4000Lost Component Wm-2 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Half Day 8 Differencies
    9. 9. EUROSUN2008, October 7-10, Lisbon (Portugal) LOST COMPONENT PREDICTIONS 3000 2000Diff Lost Component Wm-2 1000 0 -3 -1000 1.5 x 10 1 -2000 N u m b e r o f S am p les 0.5 -3000 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Half Day 0 -4 000 -3000 9 -20 00 -1 000 0 10 00 D iff L ost C om ponent 2000 300 0 4 000
    10. 10. LOST COMPONENT PREDICTIONS MADRID RRN AEMet MURCIA RRN AEMet 40 40 38 38 NN(1) 36 36 NN(2) NN(3) NN(4) 34 34 NN(5) NN(6) 32%RMSD NN(7) 32 NN(8) NN(9) 30 NN(10) 30 Persistencia 28 28 26 26 24 24 22 22 20 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 Prediction Horizon Half Daily Prediction Horizon Half Daily 10
    11. 11. CIES2008, June 17-21,2008, Vigo (Spain) LOST COMPONENT PREDICTIONS IMPROVEMENT OVER PERSISTENCE IN TERMS OF %RMSD 0.3 0.28 MADRID RRN AEMet 0.26 M adrid: M ejora frente Persistencia 24 0.24 N N /PE R M S (2)-A R (1)/P ersistencia 0.22 Im p ro v e m e n t % R M S E 22 N N (10)/P ersistencia A N FIS (6)/P ersistencia 20 0.2 18 0.18M ejo ra % R M SD 16 0.16 14 0.14 12 0.12 10 0.1 8 0.08 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 0.06 Horizonte Predicción (Sem idías) 1 2 3 4 5 6 Pre dic tion Horizon 11
    12. 12. CIES2008, June 17-21,2008, Vigo (Spain) LOST COMPONENT PREDICTIONSIMPROVEMENT OVER PERSISTENCE IN TERMS OF %RMSD 0.3 MURCIA RRN AEMet 0.28 0.26 M urcia: M ejora frente Persistencia24 0.24 Im p ro vem en t % R M SD22 0.2220 0.218 0.1816 M S (2)-AR (1)/Persistencia 0.16 NN (10)/Persistencia14 A NFIS (6)/Persistencia 0.14 N N /P E R12 0.1210 0.1 8 0.08 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 0.06 Horizonte Predicción (Sem idías) 1 2 3 4 5 6 Horizon Prediction Half D aily 12
    13. 13. EUROSUN2008, October 7-10, Lisbon (Portugal)LOST COMPONENT PREDICTIONS 13
    14. 14. EUROSUN2008, October 7-10, Lisbon (Portugal) AEMet Synoptic Predictions by SiteTotal Cloud Cover ECMWFHIRLAM/AEMet PROMETEO WRF/MM5…. Energy Values 14
    15. 15. EUROSUN2008, October 7-10, Lisbon (Portugal) LOST COMPONENT + QUALITATIVE PREDICTIONS MADRID RRN AEMet MURCIA RRN AEMet 40 40 NN(1) NN(2) 35 35 NN(3) NN(4) NN(5) NN(6) 30 30 NN(7) %RMSD NN(8) NN(9) 25 25%RMSD NN(10) PER 20 20 15 15 10 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 Prediction Horizon Half Daily Prediction Horizon Half Daily 15
    16. 16. EUROSUN2008, October 7-10, Lisbon (Portugal) LOST COMPONENT + QUALITATIVE PREDICTIONS MADRID RRN AEMet MURCIA RRN AEMet 0.7 0.7 NN(10)/PERImprovement %RMSD 0.68 NN(10)/PER Improvement %RMSD 0.68 0.66 0.66 0.64 0.64 0.62 0.62 0.6 0.6 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 Horizon Prediction (Half Daily) Horizon Prediction (Half Daily) 16
    17. 17. EUROSUN2008, October 7-10, Lisbon (Portugal) LOST COMPONENT +QUALITATIVE PREDICTIONS 17
    18. 18. EUROSUN2008, October 7-10, Lisbon (Portugal) LOST COMPONENT + QUALITATIVE PREDICTIONS MADRID RRN AEMet 40 40 35 35 30 30%RMSD 25 25 20 %RMSD 20 15 15 10 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 Prediction Horizon Half Daily Prediction Horizon Half Daily 18

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