Workshop on Applications of Solar Radiation Forecasting - Introduction - Jesús Polo (CIEMAT)
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Workshop on Applications of Solar Radiation Forecasting - Introduction - Jesús Polo (CIEMAT)

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Workshop on Applications of Solar Radiation Forecasting - Introduction - Jesús Polo (CIEMAT)

Workshop on Applications of Solar Radiation Forecasting - Introduction - Jesús Polo (CIEMAT)

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Workshop on Applications of Solar Radiation Forecasting - Introduction - Jesús Polo (CIEMAT) Workshop on Applications of Solar Radiation Forecasting - Introduction - Jesús Polo (CIEMAT) Presentation Transcript

  • Applications of Solar Radiation Forecasting, 11 June 2013CiematWorkshop on Applications ofSolar Radiation ForecastingINTRODUCTIONJ. PoloRenewable Energy Divission (Energy Department)Ciemat
  • Applications of Solar Radiation Forecasting, 11 June 2013CiematWelcome to Ciemat
  • Applications of Solar Radiation Forecasting, 11 June 2013CiematWelcome from SHC ExCo member• IEA-SHC (www.iea-shc.org) Established in 1977• Mission: To continue to be the preeminent internationalcollaborative programme in solar heating and cooling technologiesand designs.• 20 Country members and 2 organisation members (EuropeanComission and ECREE)
  • Applications of Solar Radiation Forecasting, 11 June 2013CiematWelcome from SHC ExCo memberSolar Heat Worlwide Annual Report38 completed Tasks covering:Solar Energy in BuildingsSolar Resource AssesmentMaterials R&DSolar CoolingLarge systemsSolar heat for industrial processesAnnual SHC Conference and support for ISESActivities:
  • Applications of Solar Radiation Forecasting, 11 June 2013CiematWelcome from SHC ExCo memberTask 51 - Solar Energy in Urban PlanningTask 50 - Advanced Lighting Solutions for Retrofitting BuildingsTask 49 - Solar Heat Integration in Industrial ProcessesTask 48 - Quality Assurance and Support Measures for Solar Cooling SystemsTask 47 - Solar Renovation of Non-Residential BuildingsTask 46 - Solar Resource Assessment and ForecastingTask 45 - Large Scale Solar Heating and Cooling SystemsTask 44 - Solar and Heat Pump SystemsTask 43 - Solar Rating & Certification ProceduresTask 42 - Compact Thermal Energy StorageTask 40 - Net Zero Energy Solar BuildingsTask 39 - Polymeric Materials for Solar Thermal ApplicationsOngoing Tasks:
  • Applications of Solar Radiation Forecasting, 11 June 2013CiematWelcome from SHC ExCo memberTask 51 - Solar Energy in Urban PlanningTask 50 - Advanced Lighting Solutions for Retrofitting BuildingsTask 49 - Solar Heat Integration in Industrial ProcessesTask 48 - Quality Assurance and Support Measures for Solar Cooling SystemsTask 47 - Solar Renovation of Non-Residential BuildingsTask 46 - Solar Resource Assessment and ForecastingTask 45 - Large Scale Solar Heating and Cooling SystemsTask 44 - Solar and Heat Pump SystemsTask 43 - Solar Rating & Certification ProceduresTask 42 - Compact Thermal Energy StorageTask 40 - Net Zero Energy Solar BuildingsTask 39 - Polymeric Materials for Solar Thermal ApplicationsOngoing Tasks:
  • Applications of Solar Radiation Forecasting, 11 June 2013Ciemat10:00-11:00 FORECASTING NEEDS FOR SOLAR ENERGY,Eduardo Iglesias (Protermosolar)11:00-11:30 MANAGMENT,Maria Sanchez (REE)12:00-13:30 SELL SOLAR ELECTRICITY,J.I. Burgaleta (Torresol Energy), Miguel Martínez (WenerSolar)13:30-14:00 BUY SOLAR ELECTRICITY,Jorge González (Gesternova)14:00-15:00 LUNCH15:00-16:00 COMERCIAL SERVICES,L. Martín Pomares (IrSOLaV), J. Liria (S2m Solutions)16:00-17:00 FUTURE GUIDELINES,D. Pozo (U. Jaen), Isabel Martínez (AEMet)Agenda
  • Applications of Solar Radiation Forecasting, 11 June 2013CiematCiemat activities in Solar EnergyLiquid biofuelsSolid biofuelsBIOMASSIsolated wind energysystemsWindenergyresourceWINDENERGYPV materials anddevicesPV components andsystemsPHOTOVOLTAICSConcentrating solarsystemsSolar chemistrySolar resourcePLATAFORMASOLARDE ALMERIAIntegration of solar energyin buildingsSolar components forfor buildingsSOLAR ENERGYIN BUILDINGSRENEWABLEENERGYDIVISIONSolar ResourcesgTIGERStructure of Renewable Energy Division
  • Applications of Solar Radiation Forecasting, 11 June 2013CiematCiemat activities in Solar EnergySolar Platform of AlmeríaDesalinationplantParabolic trough: DISS, HTF,Eurotrough and DCS-SSPSSolar towers: CESA-I y CRS-SSPSSolardetox andSolfinLECEDish/Stirling systemsSolarfurnace
  • Applications of Solar Radiation Forecasting, 11 June 2013CiematFuture of Solar Energy
  • Applications of Solar Radiation Forecasting, 11 June 2013CiematPerspectives of growth in global markets 2012-2020Solar PV at a GlimpseSource: Griffins S. Strategic considerations for deployment of solar photovoltaics in the Middle East and North AfricaEnergy Strategy Reviews. Elsevier
  • Applications of Solar Radiation Forecasting, 11 June 2013CiematSolar Thermal Power at a GlimpsePerspectives of growth to 2020Source: ESTELA and Protermosolar
  • Applications of Solar Radiation Forecasting, 11 June 2013CiematClassification of solar radiation forecasting methodsOverview of forecasting techniques
  • Applications of Solar Radiation Forecasting, 11 June 2013CiematOverview of forecasting techniquesVery short-term Now-casting with Total sky ImagerTSICloud coverSolar Radiation• Very short-time horizon (10 min. – 3 hour)• High spatial resolution but limited coverage (few km)
  • Applications of Solar Radiation Forecasting, 11 June 2013CiematOverview of forecasting techniquesNow-casting with satellite images• short-time horizon (15 min. – 6 hour)• Spatial resolution over 1kmMotion vectorfieldCloud index toSolar RadiationForecast cloud index
  • Applications of Solar Radiation Forecasting, 11 June 2013CiematNWP model outputRegional mesoscalemodelStatistical post-processingDynamic DownscalingOverview of forecasting techniquesForecasting with NWP models• time horizon (12 hours – 48 hours)• Limited spatial resolution
  • Applications of Solar Radiation Forecasting, 11 June 2013CiematActivities in R&DTask 36 of Solar Heating and Cooling (IEA) . Framework for collaboration Task 36: Solar Resource Knowledge Management was the umbrelafor experts collaboration on important topics concerning SolarResource Assessment during 2005-2010 Many institutions participated actively: NREL, NASA, SUNY, DLR,Univ. Oldenburg, JRC-Ispra, Ciemat, Mines ParisTech ARMINES, BlueSky, Univ. Of Geneva, Geomodel, IrSOLaV, Univ. De Jaen, UPNA,Environment Canada, ENTPE, Canmet ENERGY, Meteotest, CENER… Subtask C, entitled, “Improved techniques for Solar ResourceCharacterisation and Forecasting”.http://task36.iea-shc.org/
  • Applications of Solar Radiation Forecasting, 11 June 2013CiematActivities in R&DTask 36 of Solar Heating and Cooling (IEA). Achievements on ForecastingTeam Approach NWP model with spatial andtemporal resolutionUniversity ofOldenburg,GermanStatistical post-processing incombination with a clear skymodelECMWF- 0.25°x 0.25°- 3 hoursBlue Sky,Austria,a)“human” cloud coverforecast (by meteorologists)b) BLUE FORECAST: statisticforecast toolfor b) GFS- 1° x 1° and 0,5°x 0.5°- 3 hours and 6 hoursMeteo-control,GermanMOS (model OutputStatistics) by MeteomediaGmbHECMWF- 0.25°x 0.25°- 3 hoursCiemat,SpainBias correction AEMet-HIRLAM- 0.2°x 0.2°- 1 hourCENER,SpainPost-processing based onlearning machine modelsSkiron/GFS- 0.1°x 0.1°- 1 hourMeteotest,SwitzerlandDirect model output ofglobal irradiance, averagingof 10x10 pixelsWRF/GFS- 5km x 5km- 1 hourUniversity ofJaen, SpainDirect model output ofglobal irradianceWRF/GFS- 3km x 3km- 1 hourBenchmarking of Solar Radiation forecasting methods
  • Applications of Solar Radiation Forecasting, 11 June 2013CiematActivities in R&DTask 46 of Solar Heating and Cooling (IEA). 2011-2015Solar Resource Assessment and Forecasting (Task 46)Subtask C: Solar Irradiance ForecastingActivity C.1: Short-term forecasting (up to 7 days ahead)DNI forecasting is including, Total sky cameras, motion vectorsfrom satellite images, NWP models, statistical models integratingdifferent data sources.Activity C.2: Integration of solar forecasts into operationsStrong link with industry, workshops, applications of solarforecastinghttp://task46.iea-shc.org/
  • Applications of Solar Radiation Forecasting, 11 June 2013CiematActivities in R&DDNICast 7th Framework ProgrammeThe main objective of the proposal is to establish a portfolio of innovative methods for the forecast of DNI,valid for a portion of the space defined by “time horizon – space resolution – space coverage”Total sky cameraSatellite basedmethodsNWP modelsGround measurementsBetter nowcastingof DNIImproved AerosolMonitoringPartners: OME, DLR, CENER, Meteotest, UniPatras, Ciemat, Armines, RIUUK,SMHI, TROPOS,MeteoSwis,Cyl
  • Applications of Solar Radiation Forecasting, 11 June 2013CiematActivities in R&DDNICast 7th Framework Programme. Some innovative features Improving satellite based DNI nowcastings by enhancing the connectionbetween the satellite data and the NWP models which are used for thenowcasting of the clouds Existing methods for calculation of DNI from information about clouds,aerosols, precipitable water etc will be evaluated and adapted to use NWPdata as input The spatiotemporal DNI variability will be estimated with a combinedstatistical analysis of satellite-based ground surface radiation estimates andground measurements with a high spatial-resolution grid such as available atPSA Plant modelling and nowcasting: coupling of the DNI nowcasting systemswith CSP and CPV plant output models
  • Applications of Solar Radiation Forecasting, 11 June 2013CiematActivities in R&DCOST Wire, “Weather Intelligence for Renewable Energieshttp://www.wire1002.ch Three main working groups:1. Power forecast, 2. Measurementsand Observations, 3. Power Plants and Electrical Grid Management Benchmarking exercise on short-term forecasting models forrenewable generation Workshops and summer schools
  • Applications of Solar Radiation Forecasting, 11 June 2013CiematThanks for the attention !