General situation of solar thermal energy - Eduardo Iglesias (Protermosolar)


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General situation of solar thermal energy - Eduardo Iglesias (Protermosolar)

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General situation of solar thermal energy - Eduardo Iglesias (Protermosolar)

  1. 1. General situation of Solar Thermal Energy andprediction needsEduardo Garcia IglesiasDeputy Secretary-General of ProtermosolarCiemat, 11-6-2013
  2. 2. Solar Energy
  3. 3. 050100150200EolicaFVSTE2821013General situation of Solar ThermalEnergyAdditional 3 GWunder construction
  4. 4. The ESTELA forecast
  5. 5. TechnicalFeaturesLocalEconomicDevelopmentLarge deployment of STE power plantsCO2 free electrical generation systemEnergy independence at affordable priceSustainable futureCostThe reasons for a brilliant STE future
  6. 6. The reasons for a brilliant STE future1. TechnicalSTE is the only dispatchable and grid-friendly -enhancing gridstability- renewable technology with potential enough to meetthe electricity needs worldwide in order to achieve a carbon freegeneration system2. Local Economic DevelopmentLocal content of STE plants -and corresponding contribution tothe GDP- will be one of the main drivers behind the supportingpolicies in many countries.3. CompetitivenessThe cost of STE plants will show important reductions whenapproaching from the current 3 GW installed to the similarvalues of Wind (300 GW) and PV (100 GW)
  7. 7. 1. TechnicalThe reasons for a brilliant STE future
  8. 8. In Operation (45 / 2054 MW)In Advanced Construction Stage(5 / 250 MW)MálagaBadajozSevillaAlmeríaAlicanteCiudad RealGranadaUpdated information: www.protermosolar.comCádizCórdobaMurciaLéridaCáceres
  9. 9. Some recent data on production in SpainSource REEImportant milestonesin July 2012: Max. contribution 4,1%(July the 11th at 17:00)Max. daily contribution 3,2%(July the 15th) Monthly production 2,3%(524 GWh in July)Solar Thermal Electricity production in Spain. July 2012MWh
  10. 10. IntegratedSolar FieldPeak Power(No storage)Base Load(Large storage)Dispatchable(Medium size storage)Opportunities and value of different STEtechnologiesEfficiencyFresnelParab. troughFresnelParab. troughSteam TowerCompressedAir Rec. TowerParab. troughMolten salt tower Molten salt towerStrong PV competitionHybridization willenhance competitivenessParab. trough
  11. 11. 2. Local Economic DevelopmentThe reasons for a brilliant STE future
  12. 12. The consulting firm Deloitte carried out the study“Macroeconomic impact in 2010 of the SolarThermal Electricity Industry in Spain”, which canbe downloaded from www.protermosolar.comIn the 2010 study the basic element for calculating the impact on the GDPand on the other economic aspects was the number of plants underconstruction or operation along the different months of 2010.When calculating the impact in 2012 we have used the same ratios to allpower plant under construction or in operation, along with another set ofconsistent hypotheses in line with those used by Deloitte in 2010.Macroeconomic impact of theSTE Industry in Spain in the year 2012
  13. 13. Main results of themacroeconomic impact in 2012Installed capacity 1.970 MWContribution to the GDP 1.835 millions €GDP in construction 958 millions €GDP in O&M 877 millions €Electricity generated 3.432 GWhEquivalent premium (CNE) 927 millions €Employment 17.816 PersonsEmployment in construction 15.607 PersonsEmployment in O&M 2.209 PersonsI+D investment 60 millions €CO2 emissions avoided 2,4 t CO2Savings in CO2 rights 17 millions €Savings from replacing imported fossil fuels 131 millions €
  14. 14. Premiums: 927 M€Savings in CO2 rights: 17 M€Savings from replacingimported fossil fuels: 131 M€Fiscal contribution(Social Security, Corporate, Personaland Local Taxes,) 772 M€Contribution to GDP:1835 M€+ Leadership of the Spanish industry+ Attraction of foreigner investment+ Reduction of electricity pool price+ Regional economical convergenceComparison between premiums receivedand returns to the economy in 2012Unemployment subsidiesavoided: 132 M€Supporting STE was awise decision for Spain
  15. 15. Breakdown of GDPcontribution by industry sector
  16. 16. From the first large plants connected in 2008 till the new onesTechnology DevelopmentComponent manufacturingBasic EngineeringSite DevelopmentProject developmentEPCDetailed engineeringConstructionOperation and MaintenanceTOTAL LOCAL CONTENT 50% 80%Past situation Current CapabilitiesSpanish ForeingThe natural evolution of local content
  17. 17. Industry localization in Spainfor solar field componentsPrerequisite:Stable program of somefew hundred MW per yearAbsorber tubesCurved mirrorsCollector structure
  18. 18. Other direct effects on IndustryReorientation of other mature industries:- Construction, civil works- Engineering of conventional power plants- Electricity Transmission Infrastructures- Galvanizers, …Reinforcement of some industry sectors:- Piping and tanks- Heat exchangers- Boilers- Cabling- Telecommunication and controlEnlargement of supplier’s subsidiaries in the country:(Promotion, Maintenance, Stock Management, …)Huge impact in auxiliary sectors- Cleaning, environmentalists, labs, …- Road transport- Training, …
  19. 19. Jobs in a typical STE plantin Spain (50 MW, 7,5 h. storage) 2214 one year equivalent jobs on the whole value chain(promotion, engineering, comp. manufact.,& construction) 47 direct jobs for operation and related services duringthe whole life span of the plant
  20. 20. Evolution of the contribution to GDP1,6502,0841,83505001,0001,5002,0002,5002010 2011 20121,474 1,69087717539495805001,0001,5002,0002,5002010 2011 2012GDP Construction GDP O&M
  21. 21. 3. CompetitivenessThe reasons for a brilliant STE future
  22. 22. What has been done so far(Stars mean achievements)Source:Deloitte, Macroeconomic Impact of STE sector in Spain, 2010Cost breakdown for a 50 MW plant with 7 h. storageCost reduction:StructureTubesMirrorsPerformance increaseCost reductionCost =Performance increaseCost =The increase of financingcosts has counteracted thiseffort to some extend
  23. 23. Cost references from current projects30 c€/kWh13 c$/kWh25 c$/kWh25 c€/kWh30c€/kWh1021 c$/kWh14 c€/kWh0?
  24. 24. The “harmonization” model for STE costsActual PPA for agiven project at acertain locationunder specificsupportcircumstancesHarmonized PPA fora “typical” project atthe same locationwithout publicsupport“Discount” factorsPPA or FiT durationConcessional loansSpecific FinancialconditionsPlant sizePPA escalation rateLoan durationGrantsDISCLAIMER: This attempt to provide reference prices must be considered approximated. There are manydefault values that might be not applicable to all projects as well as some country specific requirements.“Typical” project150 MW4h storage25 PPANo public financingand no escalation
  25. 25. Cost reduction estimations:The view from the Industry in 2012Hypothesis: 30 GWwill be built at that time.Some breakthroughs mightaccelerate this trend.Source: ESTELA Position PaperStars corresponds to “normalized”PPAs or FiTs in 2012 at their respectivelocations in Spain, USA, India, MoroccoSouth Africa and Israel
  26. 26. Thank you for your