The Strategic Forum
Proprietor and Principal Consultant Dr. Llewellyn B. Lewis
www.strategicforum.co.za
research@bmi-brscu...
Developing competitive industry foresight
and
strategic leadership as a way of business life.
Developing competitive indus...
Developing competitive industry foresight
and
strategic leadership as a way of business life.
Developing competitive indus...
Some underlying principles on which our Strategic Forum is based
THE STRATEGIC FORUM
www.strategicforum.co.za
The pace of change has accelerated
way beyond the comfort zone of most
people
The rules that guided decisions in the
past,...
THE STRATEGIC FORUM
www.strategicforum.co.za
Connectivity is putting everyone and
everything on-line in one way or another and has
led to the death of distance, a shri...
Since the economy and business are part of
the universe, time, space and mass are the
fundamental dimensions of them as we...
STRATEGIC
FORUM
Quarterly Meetings
Research
STRATEGY
REGENERATION
Workshops
ORGANISATIONAL
REINVENTION
Workshops
LEADERSHI...
STRATEGIC
FORUM
Quarterly Meetings
Research
STRATEGY
REGENERATION
Workshops
ORGANISATIONAL
REINVENTION
Workshops
LEADERSHI...
KNOWN AND UNKNOWN
www.strategicforum.co.za
An internet search of “known
unknown” in the autumn of 2010
resulted in more th...
“Reports that say something hasn’t happened are always
interesting to me because as we know, there are known
knowns: there...
“Known knowns are facts, rules and laws that we know with certainty.
We know for example, that gravity is what makes an ob...
Known knowns
• We know the industry as far as the reported information is concerned;
• We know that the Industry is interc...
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) urged
the Bank of England to raise interest rates
to avert the possibility of a cras...
THE STRATEGIC FORUM DASHBOARD
www.strategicforum.co.za
In his address to statisticians, Mr Manuel bemoaned the
lack of use...
THE STRATEGIC FORUM DASHBOARD
www.strategicforum.co.za
At our BMI Strategic Forum we have always ascribed to a paradigm of...
THE STRATEGIC FORUM DASHBOARD
www.strategicforum.co.za
THE STRATEGIC FORUM DASHBOARD
www.strategicforum.co.za
THE STRATEGIC FORUM DASHBOARD
www.strategicforum.co.za
THE STRATEGIC FORUM DASHBOARD
www.strategicforum.co.za
THE STRATEGIC FORUM GFCF DASHBOARD
www.strategicforum.co.za
THE STRATEGIC FORUM DASHBOARD
www.strategicforum.co.za
A paper-less strategic forum
Password enabled access to user-
friendly strategic information
Current information at all ti...
Bridging the gap between daily events
and long-term scenarios
Information arbitrage across industry
boundaries - breaking ...
The Strategic Forum is not simply an
assembly where strategic conversations
take place
By attaching it to a Web-site – put...
THE STRATEGIC FORUM
It is based on the Silicon Valley
model, where views are readily shared
We appreciate that spreading
k...
THE STRATEGIC FORUM
Networking relationships and information
arbitrage are crucial to the success of the
strategic forum
T...
Developing competitive industry foresight
and
strategic leadership as a way of business life.
Developing competitive indus...
CREATING THE FUTURE
CREATIVE TENSIONCREATIVE TENSION
SEEKS RESOLUTION : RESULTS IN ACTION
STRATEGIC ACTION PLANS
PERFORMAN...
CREATING THE FUTURE WITH SCENARIOS
KEY ACTORS
STRATEGIC POSTURE
SCENARIO
LOGICS
SCENARIO
STORY LINES
IMPACTS
MONITORING
CU...
CREATIVE TENSION
SEEKS RESOLUTION
RESULTS IN ACTION
THE GLUE
THAT
HOLDS
STRATEGY
TOGETHER
Regenerating Strategy : Strategi...
STRATEGIC
FORUM
Quarterly Meetings
Research
STRATEGY
REGENERATION
Workshops
ORGANISATIONAL
REINVENTION
Workshops
LEADERSHI...
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The Strategic Forum (established 1990) is a place of assembly for strategic conversations. Subscribers meet twice per year to discuss the State of the Economy; the State of the Building-, Construction-, and Property Environments and to make sense of the F

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The Strategic Forum (established 1990) is a place of assembly for strategic conversations. Subscribers meet twice per year to discuss the State of the Economy; the State of the Building-, Construction-, and Property Environments and to make sense of the F

  1. 1. The Strategic Forum Proprietor and Principal Consultant Dr. Llewellyn B. Lewis www.strategicforum.co.za research@bmi-brscu.co.za Established 1990 THE STRATEGIC FORUM A place of assembly for strategic conversations BMI Studium Ad Prosperandum Voluntas in Conveniendum BUILDING RESEARCH STRATEGY CONSULTING UNIT cc Reg. No. 2002/105109/23 • BMI Studium Ad Prosperandum Voluntas in Conveniendum BUILDING RESEARCH STRATEGY CONSULTING UNIT cc • BMI • BMI • BMI • BMI Studium Ad Prosperandum Voluntas in Conveniendum BUILDING RESEARCH STRATEGY CONSULTING UNIT cc Reg. No. 2002/105109/23 • BMI Studium Ad Prosperandum Voluntas in Conveniendum BUILDING RESEARCH STRATEGY CONSULTING UNIT cc • BMI • BMI • BMI • BMI • BMI • BMI •
  2. 2. Developing competitive industry foresight and strategic leadership as a way of business life. Developing competitive industry foresight and strategic leadership as a way of business life. Our Context We assist organisations in developing the competitive foresight required to influence the direction and shape of industry evolution,and STRATEGIC LEADERSHIP AS A WAY OF BUSINESS LIFE. We achieve this through EXCELLENCE in our CORE COMPETENCIES of scenario learning competitive industry foresight strategic and scenario research strategy regeneration leadership reinvention organisational reinvention www.strategicforum.co.za BMI Studium Ad Prosperandum Voluntas in Conveniendum BUILDING RESEARCH STRATEGY CONSULTING UNIT cc Reg. No. 2002/105109/23 • BMI Studium Ad Prosperandum Voluntas in Conveniendum BUILDING RESEARCH STRATEGY CONSULTING UNIT cc • BMI • BMI • BMI • BMI Studium Ad Prosperandum Voluntas in Conveniendum BUILDING RESEARCH STRATEGY CONSULTING UNIT cc Reg. No. 2002/105109/23 • BMI Studium Ad Prosperandum Voluntas in Conveniendum BUILDING RESEARCH STRATEGY CONSULTING UNIT cc • BMI • BMI • BMI • BMI • BMI • BMI •
  3. 3. Developing competitive industry foresight and strategic leadership as a way of business life. Developing competitive industry foresight and strategic leadership as a way of business life. The Strategic Forum (established 1990) is a place of assembly for strategic conversations. Subscribers meet twice per year to discuss the State of the Economy; the State of the Building-, Construction-, and Property Environments and to make sense of the Future. Many commissioned market research studies are conducted into new product positioning, feasibility studies, mergers, acquisitions and diversification strategies. The generic information gathered contributes to the knowledge bank of BMI-BRSCU and benefits all clients. BMI-BRSCU Maintain a comprehensive data-bank on the Industry and the Market for Major Building Product Groups. www.strategicforum.co.za THE STRATEGIC FORUM www.strategicforum.co.za
  4. 4. Some underlying principles on which our Strategic Forum is based THE STRATEGIC FORUM www.strategicforum.co.za
  5. 5. The pace of change has accelerated way beyond the comfort zone of most people The rules that guided decisions in the past, are no longer reliable The elements of change that are driving these momentous shifts, are based on the fundamental dimensions of the universe itself. Time, space and mass (Stan Davis : 2001) Some underlying principles on which our Strategic Forum is based THE STRATEGIC FORUM www.strategicforum.co.za
  6. 6. THE STRATEGIC FORUM www.strategicforum.co.za
  7. 7. Connectivity is putting everyone and everything on-line in one way or another and has led to the death of distance, a shrinking of space. Intangible value of all kinds like service and information, is growing explosively, reducing the importance of tangible mass. Connectivity, Speed and Intangibles – the derivatives of time, space and mass – are blurring the rules and redefining our businesses and our lives. What we see is a melt-down of all traditional boundaries. (Stan Davis : 2001) THE STRATEGIC FORUM www.strategicforum.co.za
  8. 8. Since the economy and business are part of the universe, time, space and mass are the fundamental dimensions of them as well. Until recently, this notion was too abstract to be very useful. Now we are realising the extraordinary power this insight has to the business world. Almost instantaneous communication and computation are shrinking time and focusing us on speed. (Stan Davis : 2001) These are some the underlying principles on which our Strategic Forum is based THE STRATEGIC FORUM www.strategicforum.co.za
  9. 9. STRATEGIC FORUM Quarterly Meetings Research STRATEGY REGENERATION Workshops ORGANISATIONAL REINVENTION Workshops LEADERSHIP REINVENTION Workshops Monthly Reports Quarterly Reports Annual Reports Scenario models SCENARIOS World South Africa Building Industry Construction Residential Property Commercial Property Local Government Water Refurbishment Facilities Management Furniture Low Income Housing News Trends Survey Results Trends Strategy Letter Trends Strategy Letter Trends Leadership LetterTrends Reinvention Letter PORTFOLIO A place of assembly for strategic conversations Lessons from the future ! THE STRATEGIC FORUM www.strategicforum.co.za
  10. 10. STRATEGIC FORUM Quarterly Meetings Research STRATEGY REGENERATION Workshops ORGANISATIONAL REINVENTION Workshops LEADERSHIP REINVENTION Workshops Monthly Reports Quarterly Reports Annual Reports Scenario models SCENARIOS World South Africa Building Industry Construction Residential Property Commercial Property Local Government Water Refurbishment Facilities Management Furniture Low Income Housing News Trends Survey Results Trends Strategy Letter Trends Strategy Letter Trends Leadership LetterTrends Reinvention Letter PORTFOLIO A place of assembly for strategic conversations Leadership across Worldviews ! Lessons from the future ! THE STRATEGIC FORUM www.strategicforum.co.za
  11. 11. KNOWN AND UNKNOWN www.strategicforum.co.za An internet search of “known unknown” in the autumn of 2010 resulted in more than 300000 entries, 250 000 of which was linked to Donald Rumsfeld. “The phrase first became publicly linked to me in early 2002. Toward the end of one of my Pentagon press briefings, a journalist told me that ‘reports’ were suggesting the absence of a link between Saddam Hussein’s regime and terrorists seeking weapons of mass destruction. These unidentified reports, the questioner suggested, were evidence of a lack of a ‘direct link’”.
  12. 12. “Reports that say something hasn’t happened are always interesting to me because as we know, there are known knowns: there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns: that is to say we know there are some things (we know) we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don’t know we don’t know. And if we look throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tends to be the difficult one. “At first glance, the logic may seem obscure. But behind the enigmatic language is a simple truth about knowledge: there are many things of which we are completely unaware – in fact there are things of which we are so unaware, we don’t even know we are unaware of them. KNOWN AND UNKNOWN www.strategicforum.co.za
  13. 13. “Known knowns are facts, rules and laws that we know with certainty. We know for example, that gravity is what makes an object fall to the ground. Known unknowns are gaps in our knowledge, but they are gaps that we know exist. We know, for example that we don’t know the exact extent of Iran’s nuclear weapons programme. If we ask the right questions we can potentially fill this gap in our knowledge, eventually making it a known known. “The category of unknown unknowns is the most difficult to grasp. They are gaps in our knowledge, but gaps we don’t know exist. Genuine surprises tend to arise out of this category. Nineteen hijackers using commercial airlines as guided missiles to incinerate three thousand men, women and children was perhaps the most horrific single unknown unknown America has experienced.” KNOWN AND UNKNOWN www.strategicforum.co.za
  14. 14. Known knowns • We know the industry as far as the reported information is concerned; • We know that the Industry is interconnected; • We know that we don’t spend sufficient time in Socratic dialogue, asking the right questions. Known unknowns • We know that our information is not complete and some of our information is based on assumptions; • We know that we can’t forecast the future; • We don’t know what the Affordable Housing Plans of Government entails; • We don’t know what the Infrastructure programme of Government entails or how the roll-out will take place; • We don’t know what the plans of the Banks are with regard to Mortgage Advances; • We don’t know what will happen if Malema becomes President; • We don’t know exactly how the industry connections work. Unknown unknowns • We don’t know where the next surprise will come from; • We don’t know what we don’t know. But we can ask the right questions and fill the gaps in our knowledge. . . But we can be alert to weak signals of change, listen “outside the boundaries” and do scenario thinking. . . KNOWN AND UNKNOWN IN OUR INDUSTRY www.strategicforum.co.za
  15. 15. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) urged the Bank of England to raise interest rates to avert the possibility of a crash in house prices. It also warned about the risks posed by high levels of household debt, saying, 'the main risk to the outlook is the possibility of an abrupt correction in the housing market'. (The Telegraph, London, 25 April 2004) Early warning (in our 2004 Strategic Forum). Not heeded? KNOWN UNKNOWN? KNOWN AND UNKNOWN www.strategicforum.co.za
  16. 16. THE STRATEGIC FORUM DASHBOARD www.strategicforum.co.za In his address to statisticians, Mr Manuel bemoaned the lack of use of statistics, particularly those generated by Statistics SA, by public office holders and members of the public service to create policy. "Sometimes one feels that the kind of policy papers used could have been written 20 years ago and in another country," he said. In some cases decision makers acted as though they did not need statistics, because they had the answers even before the question was put. "Sometimes, this may well be a consequence of ignorance — the people who are expected to have access to information simply do not! And sometimes it may be a consequence of decision makers not caring because there are no consequences," he said. Mr Manuel went on to name the three impediments to development as "ideology, ignorance and inertia". He also commented that perhaps the lack of use of statistics was directly related to the country’s educational system, which did not encourage curiosity among its students. (Business Day, 16 July 2013) Planning Minister Trevor Manuel.
  17. 17. THE STRATEGIC FORUM DASHBOARD www.strategicforum.co.za At our BMI Strategic Forum we have always ascribed to a paradigm of sharing all information with our subscribers on the premise that knowledge must be freely shared and empowering. Accordingly we developed an improved information management system to facilitate the process. We have collected all the Building, Construction and Property (BCP) information together in 6 Dashboards in one interconnected model thus providing a complete BCP system overview at a glance. 1. BPP by Province Dashboard; 2. BC by Province Dashboard; 3. Building Industry Dashboard; 4. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) Dashboard; 5. Mortgage Advances Dashboard; 6. Building Materials Dashboard. Navigation between Dashboards and to the individual Excel spread-sheets in each Dashboard and is at the click of a button. Each S/S is accompanied by all the Charts necessary to get a complete view. Although the sheets are locked for proprietary reasons, the Charts are accessible and can be copied and pasted. These Dashboards are updated as information changes and posted on the website for downloading. Advice of postings are on the default page of our website where a quick-link is provided which takes subscribers directly to the web-site page, at which point a subscriber user name and password is required for access.
  18. 18. THE STRATEGIC FORUM DASHBOARD www.strategicforum.co.za
  19. 19. THE STRATEGIC FORUM DASHBOARD www.strategicforum.co.za
  20. 20. THE STRATEGIC FORUM DASHBOARD www.strategicforum.co.za
  21. 21. THE STRATEGIC FORUM DASHBOARD www.strategicforum.co.za
  22. 22. THE STRATEGIC FORUM GFCF DASHBOARD www.strategicforum.co.za
  23. 23. THE STRATEGIC FORUM DASHBOARD www.strategicforum.co.za
  24. 24. A paper-less strategic forum Password enabled access to user- friendly strategic information Current information at all times Daily, Monthly, Quarterly and Annual updating Regular newsletters Sense making of information overload in scenario context Ongoing strategic conversations THE STRATEGIC FORUM www.strategicforum.co.za
  25. 25. Bridging the gap between daily events and long-term scenarios Information arbitrage across industry boundaries - breaking the “silo” paradigm Developing larger world view and challenging mindsets Developing industry foresight Leveraging the strategic quotient of leadership team Contributing to learning culture THE STRATEGIC FORUM www.strategicforum.co.za
  26. 26. The Strategic Forum is not simply an assembly where strategic conversations take place By attaching it to a Web-site – putting it on-line, making it interactive, allowing it to learn – we’re attempting to practise what we teach We share details of just about everything we do in a holistic empowering process THE STRATEGIC FORUM www.strategicforum.co.za
  27. 27. THE STRATEGIC FORUM It is based on the Silicon Valley model, where views are readily shared We appreciate that spreading knowledge quickly increases everyone’s learning, and we know there is more than enough opportunity to go around By giving away information we attract more ideas from our clients in a mutually reinforcing learning cycle www.strategicforum.co.za
  28. 28. THE STRATEGIC FORUM Networking relationships and information arbitrage are crucial to the success of the strategic forum The forum promotes networking across industry boundaries and facilitates leadership across wider world-views Leveraged learning comes through the challenging of existing mental models and industry recipes by a questioning leadership community brought together through the strategic forum www.strategicforum.co.za These are some the underlying principles on which our Strategic Forum is based
  29. 29. Developing competitive industry foresight and strategic leadership as a way of business life. Developing competitive industry foresight and strategic leadership as a way of business life. The prime question to be addressed by organisations, is whether they are well equipped for the future, whether it can continuously reposition itself for competitive advantage, ahead of change. This is achieved by considering the organisation's strategic vision against the scenarios of the future business environment, to establish the degree of fit. The strategic regeneration and planning approach followed by BMI-BRSCU therefore takes a holistic view of the environment, identifying trends, core driving forces, strategic issues and key uncertainties and looks into the future by developing scenarios and industry foresight. Scenario planning is dynamic. The focus of attention needs to be on the ongoing strategic conversation, penetrating both the formal and informal exchange of views through which the strategic understanding develops - and strategic leadership results. Our contribution to the strategic conversation is by creating (via our Strategic Forum) "… events through which views can be exchanged outside the pressure of immediate decision-making." (Kees van der Heijden : 1997), triggered by thought- provoking inputs from our scenario team of experts. We can facilitate strategy regeneration workshops for your company. www.strategicforum.co.za THE STRATEGIC FORUM www.strategicforum.co.za
  30. 30. CREATING THE FUTURE CREATIVE TENSIONCREATIVE TENSION SEEKS RESOLUTION : RESULTS IN ACTION STRATEGIC ACTION PLANS PERFORMANCE GUIDELINES BUDGETS DONE BY MANAGEMENT SEEKS RESOLUTION : RESULTS IN ACTION STRATEGIC ACTION PLANS PERFORMANCE GUIDELINES BUDGETS DONE BY MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES A LOGIC AND FIRST LEVEL OF DETAIL, FOR HOW THE VISION CAN BE ACHIEVED DEVELOPED BY LEADERSHIP CONTEMPORARY ANALYST STRATEGIES A LOGIC AND FIRST LEVEL OF DETAIL, FOR HOW THE VISION CAN BE ACHIEVED DEVELOPED BY LEADERSHIP CONTEMPORARY ANALYST 2020 2013 CURRENT REALITY INFORMED BY MEMORIES OF THE PAST (HISTORY) HISTORIAN CONTEXT : A COMPELLING PICTURE OF THE FUTURE WE WANT TO CREATE. CREATED BY LEADERSHIP CONTEXT : A COMPELLING PICTURE OF THE FUTURE WE WANT TO CREATE. CREATED BY LEADERSHIP VISION INFORMED BY MEMORIES OF THE FUTURE (SCENARIOS) PROPHET
  31. 31. CREATING THE FUTURE WITH SCENARIOS KEY ACTORS STRATEGIC POSTURE SCENARIO LOGICS SCENARIO STORY LINES IMPACTS MONITORING CURRENT REALITY vs SCENARIOS STRATEGIC INTERVENTIONS CRITICAL SUCCESS FACTORS SCENARIO VARIABLES DRIVING STRUCTURAL CHANGE FOCAL ISSUE STRATEGIC INTENT STRATEGIES STRATEGIC ISSUES KEY CERTAINTIES KEY CHALLENGES CORE DRIVING FORCES KEY UNCERTAINTIES
  32. 32. CREATIVE TENSION SEEKS RESOLUTION RESULTS IN ACTION THE GLUE THAT HOLDS STRATEGY TOGETHER Regenerating Strategy : Strategic Leadership as a way of Business Life PARADIGMS and PARADIGM SHIFT LEADERSHIP STYLELEADERSHIP STYLE CULTURE, VALUES SCENARIOS CORPORATE CHALLENGES, COMPETITIVE INNOVATION, STRATEGIC ACTION PLANS SHARED UNDERSTANDING AND COMMITMENT TAPPING THE COLLECTIVE WISDOM OF THE TOTAL ORGANISATION PERFORMANCE MILESTONES Measuring Success STRUCTURE Required for the future STRATEGIES CORE COMPETENCIES FUTURE BUSINESS IDEA STRATEGIC ARCHITECTURE RESOURCES, SKILLS, KEY CAPABILITIES FUTURE DRIVING FORCE SWOT CHANGING GAME RULES REDEFINING BOUNDARIES STRATEGIC INTENT VISION, MISSION, SLOGAN VALUES, CONTEXT CURRENT REALITY RULES OF THE GAME BUSINESS IDEA
  33. 33. STRATEGIC FORUM Quarterly Meetings Research STRATEGY REGENERATION Workshops ORGANISATIONAL REINVENTION Workshops LEADERSHIP REINVENTION Workshops Monthly Reports Quarterly Reports Annual Reports Scenario models SCENARIOS World South Africa Building Industry Construction Residential Property Commercial Property Local Government Water Refurbishment Facilities Management Furniture Low Income Housing Trends Survey Results Trends Strategy Letter Trends Leadership Letter Trends Reinvention Letter PORTFOLIO A place of assembly for strategic conversations Lessons from the future ! An holistic portfolio of products and services. Leveraging the strategic quotient of the organisation. A wide range of Products and Services available Contact us via our web-site Or e-mail research@bmi-brscu.co.za THE STRATEGIC FORUM www.strategicforum.co.za

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