The industry dashboard ytd 2011 sv Dec 2011 (PP Presentation)

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This Industry Dashboard PP Presentation gives a comprehensive view of the state of the building, construction and property industry.

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The industry dashboard ytd 2011 sv Dec 2011 (PP Presentation)

  1. 1. THE STRATEGIC FORUM www.strategicforum.co.za Studium Ad Prosperandum •• BUILDING RESEARCH BUILDING RESEARCH BMI BMI STRATEGY CONSULTING STRATEGY CONSULTING UNIT cc UNIT cc  Voluntas in Conveniendum Reg. No. 2002/105109/23 THE STRATEGIC FORUM A place of assembly for strategic conversations Towards Making sense of the Building-, Construction- and Property-Industry: THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: YTD 2011 Dr. Llewellyn B. Lewis December 20111 © BMI-BRSCU
  2. 2. THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: BPP & BC, CEMENT AND LUMBER SALES: 2010, 2009 & 2011 THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: DECEMBER 2011: BPP AND BC (OCT), CEMENT AND LUMBER SALES (NOV). Domestic Cement Sales (Tonnes) ended 2010 at -7,75% compared to 2009 Cumulative Y/Y January 2011 for Domestic Cement Sales recorded a decrease of -5,04% compared to 2010, followed by Cumulative Y/Y declines of -3,34% in February, -2,85% in March, -1,91% in April, -2,11% in May, +0,04% in June and +0,07% in July and + 0,69% in August, +2,08% in September, +2,95% in October and + 3,58% in November - thus a gradually improving trend. The MAT Forecast for Domestic Cement Sales shows marginal growth of + 3,34% for 2011 vs 2010. Local Building Lumber Sales (m3) ended 2010 at +7,20% compared to 2009. Cumulative Y/Y January 2011 recorded a massive increase of 34,58% compared to 2010, followed by Cumulative Y/Y growths of 19,62% in February, 17,38% in March, 12,86% in April, 12,56% in May, 15,57% in June, 15,78% in July, 14,61% in August, +17,48% in September, +15,67% in October and + 14,10% in November. It does appear as if Lumber Sales is continuing to "buck the trend" which may be the "green shoots" the building industry is looking for. The MAT Forecast for Local Building Lumber Sales (in m3) shows strong growth of + 13,22% for 2011 vs 2010. . Total Building Plans Passed (m2) ended 2010 at -11,65% compared to 2009. Cumulative Y/Y building plans passed (BPP) by larger municipalities (in m2) for YTD Oct 2011 decreased by - 2,25% compared with Oct 2010. • A decrease was reported for Additions and Alterations BPP (- 16,07%), whilst • BPP for Residential Buildings increased by + 2,60%. • The increase reported for non residential buildings BPP was + 11,19%. Longer term trends in the non- residential sector still reflect falling demand levels. The MAT Forecast for Residential BPP (in m2) shows marginal growth of + 2,23%, Non Residential BPP shows growth of + 9,48%, Additions and Alterations BPP shows decline of – 13,69% and Total BPP shows decline of – 1,92% for 2011 vs 2010.2
  3. 3. THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: BPP & BC, CEMENT AND LUMBER SALES: 2010, 2009 & 2011 Total Buildings Completed (m2) ended 2010 at -27,87% compared to 2009. Cumulative Y/Y buildings reported as completed (BC) to larger municipalities (in m2) for YTD Oct 2011 decreased by – 7,92% compared with Oct 2010. • The largest percentage decrease in the value of buildings reported as completed (BC) was reported for Non residential BC (- 22,41%), whilst • Residential buildings recorded a decline (- 1,85%) and • Additions and Alterations decreased (- 5,12%). After these first 10 months results it is still our view that the decline in Residential Investment should decrease month on month from now on and in spite of the expected decline in Non Residential activity (about half that of Residential Building) will contribute to the positive growth in Total Investment in Building from the third quarter of 2011. The MAT Forecast for Residential BC shows marginal decline of – 1,51%, Non Residential BC shows DECLINE of – 19,56%, Additions and Alterations BC shows a DECLINE of -4,34% and Total BC shows DECLINE of – 6,62% for 2011 vs 2010. From the foregoing comparisons it can be seen that ALL the indicators indicate a turning point and MAT Forecasts indicating gradual growth (less negative). It still remains to be seen whether the gradual improvement in BPP and BC from the levels achieved in 2010 will be encouraged by the increasing willingness of the Banks to relax their stringent lending criteria so that Mortgage Advances can flow into the industry. At this stage it is mainly first time homebuyers in the middle income sector that are benefiting.3
  4. 4. THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: BPP & BC, CEMENT AND LUMBER SALES: 2010, 2009 & 2011 Cumulative YTD Buildings Completed (BC) % Change by Sector Total: January - Sept 2011 (Source: StatsSA; BMI-BRSCU Workings) 40% MAT FORECAST 30% 20% 10% Percentage 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% Jan- Feb Mar Apr- May Jun- Jul- Aug Sep Oct- Nov Dec 11 -11 -11 11 -11 11 11 -11 -11 11 -11 -11 Total Res BC Cum YTD % Change (m2) -13.68% -9.13% 3.09% -0.18% -7.48% -3.69% -5.13% -6.44% -3.23% -2.92% -2.62% -2.41% Total Non Res BC Cum YTD % Change (m2) -27.22% -3.67% -10.82% -9.64% -13.66% -8.22% -17.75% -19.86% -18.45% -16.06% -14.73% -13.80% Total BC Cum YTD % Change (m2) -17.93% -7.58% -1.42% -3.25% -9.44% -5.12% -9.29% -10.79% -8.11% -7.24% -6.54% -6.06% Domestic Cement Sales (Tonnes) -5.04% -3.34% -2.85% -1.91% -2.11% 0.04% -0.02% 0.61% 2.08% 2.95% 3.58% 3.34% Local Building Lumber Sales (m3) 34.58% 19.62% 17.38% 12.86% 12.56% 15.57% 15.78% 14.61% 17.48% 15.67% 13.93% 13.06%4
  5. 5. www.strategicforum.co.za PROPERTY OWNERSHIP ENGINE FOR GROWTH LISTED PROPERTY SECTOR AND WEALTH CREATION EMPLOYMENT MARKET CAPITALISATION R4,8 TRILLION RES PROPERTY IN BUILDING & CONSTRUCTION > R100 BILLION R1,7 TRILLION NON RES PROPERTY > 1 000 000 PEOPLE (Land included) PRIMARY AND SECONDARY PROPERTY MARKET ANNUAL HOUSING NEED URBAN HOUSING R267 BILLION PA MORTGAGE BACKLOG > 1,5 MILLION ADVANCES PA (POP. GROWTH ONLY) UNITS IN 2010 R1000 BIO MORTGAGES O/S 250 000 INTEGRATED HOUSING FTHB SUBSIDIES (1,9% OF BUDGET = R13,8 BILLION) RESIDENTIAL AND BUILDING INV. (500 000 HOUSING UNITS) NON RES BPP AND R108,5* BILLION INVESTMENT IN AFFORDABLE HOUSING BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC) (20,8% OF GFCF) (R1,4 TRILLION 2010-2020) GOVERNMENT BUDGET GFCF GDP R798,9 BILLION R521,6 BILLION R2663 BILLION (22% OF GDP) (30% OF GDP) GOVERNMENT CONSTR. INV. TRANSFER DUTY INFRASTRUCTURE SPEND R174,9 BILLION R8- R9 BILLION PA (R846 BILLION 2010-2020) (33,5% OF GDFI) * When the UNRECORDED Home Improvement and Affordable Housing is taken into5 account Building Investment = 30,5% of GFCF © BMI-BRSCU
  6. 6. www.strategicforum.co.za PROPERTY OWNERSHIP LISTED PROPERTY SECTOR ENGINE FOR GROWTH MARKET CAPITALISATION It is estimated that for every R1 spent EMPLOYMENT AND WEALTH CREATION > R100 BILLION on infrastructure, R1.40000 &added to a R3,8 TRILLION RES PROPERTY IN BUILDING CONSTRUCTION > 1 is 000 PEOPLE “Unless the Housing Market TRILLION NON RES PROPERTY R1,3 country’s gross domestic product. recovers, the Economy will PPP’s are the ideal vehicle for funding not recover.” SECONDARY PRIMARY AND (Warren Buffet, CNN, ANNUAL the gaps in infrastructure in Africa. HOUSING PROPERTY MARKET 4 October 2011) NEED URBAN HOUSING R267 BILLION PA MORTGAGE (Deloittes research, BACKLOG > 1,5 MILLION May 2011) ADVANCES PA (POP. GROWTH ONLY) UNITS IN 2010 R1000 BIO MORTGAGES O/S 250 000 INTEGRATED HOUSING FTHB SUBSIDIES (1,9% OF BUDGET = R13,8 BILLION) RESIDENTIAL AND BUILDING INV. (500 000 HOUSING UNITS) NON RES BPP AND R108,5* BILLION INVESTMENT IN AFFORDABLE HOUSING BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC) (20,8% OF GFCF) (R1,4 TRILLION 2010-2020) GOVERNMENT BUDGET GFCF The UK Government plan to GDP R798,9 BILLION R521,6 BILLION R2663 BILLION promote building. “It clearly (30% OF GDP) has (22% OF GDP) recognised the need to boost house building, both to address GOVERNMENT TRANSFER DUTY CONSTR. INV. the housing crisis and to create INFRASTRUCTURE SPEND R174,9 BILLION R8- R9 BILLION PA (R846 BILLION 2010-2020) (33,5% OF GDFI) jobs.” (Business Day, 22 November 2011) * When the UNRECORDED Home Improvement and Affordable Housing is taken into6 account Building Investment = 30,5% of GFCF © BMI-BRSCU
  7. 7. TOTAL MORTGAGE LOANS & RE-ADVANCES: 1979-2010 www.strategicforum.co.za Total Mortgage Loans and Readvances by application: 1979-2010 (Current Values) (Source: SARB, BMI-BRSCU Workings) BNG Housing Programme Transition to Democracy Sub Prime Crisis (NCA) Democratic Election World Trade Centre Economic recovery Mandelas release Currency collapse Austerity package Rubicon speech Defining Events Debt standstill Gold boom SASOL III SASOL II 450,000 130% R233 Billion taken 120% 110% 400,000 out of the system 100% in two years! 90%R Millions (Current Value) 350,000 80% Y/Y Percenatage Change 70% 300,000 60% 50% 250,000 40% 30% The deleveraging by the Banks 200,000 20% 10% and the loss of consumer 0% 150,000 -10% spending power could only -20% 100,000 -30% mean lost growth: -40% -50% mortgage 50,000 -60% -70% repossessions, business 0 -80% 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 failures, and personal bankruptcies . . .7 © BMI-BRSCU
  8. 8. NEW MORTGAGE LOANS & RE-ADVANCES: TOTAL www.strategicforum.co.za Y/Y Cum Actual Total gross new Mortgage Loans and Readvances: Cum YTD June 2011 vs 2010 and 2007 by month (Source: SARB, BMI-BRSCU Workings) 450,000 6% MAT FORECAST 5% 400,000 4% % Change Y/Y Cum Actual 2011 vs 2010 350,000 3% R Millions (Current Values) 2% 300,000 1% 250,000 0% 200,000 -1% -2% 150,000 -3% 100,000 -4% -5% 50,000 -6% 0 -7% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Y/Y Cum Actual 2007 30,111 71,925 116,91 153,36 199,88 233,82 270,62 307,38 339,29 376,89 413,16 441,41 Y/Y Cum Actual 2011 15,036 36,268 59,631 78,368 97,547 119,63 142,33 164,40 189,39 214,33 239,16 260,26 Y/Y CUM Actual 2010 14,454 35,182 60,337 81,776 104,52 126,80 149,49 171,56 196,55 221,49 246,32 267,42 % Change Y/Y Cum Actual 2011 vs 2010 4.03% 3.09% -1.17% -4.17% -6.67% -5.65% -4.79% -4.17% -3.64% -3.23% -2.91% -2.68%8 © BMI-BRSCU
  9. 9. CURRENT REALITY OF BUILDING & CONSTRUCTION: 2010* BUILDING INVESTMENT BUILDING & CONSTRUCTION INVESTMENT CONSTRUCTION INVESTMENT R159 277 MILLION R334 221 MILLION R174 944 MILL CONTRACTOR (50,8%) RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT R67 914 MIO R12 775 MILLION R59 682 LABOUR (40%) R133 688 MIO SUBCONTRACTOR (49,2%) NON RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT R65 775 MIO R64 488 MILLION MATERIAL (60%) DIRECT TO USER (40%) UNRECORDED ADDITIONS AND ALT’S INVEST** R200 533 MIO R80 213 MILLION R35 106 MILLION LARGE CHAIN BLDRS MERCHANT INDIRECT VIA DISTRIBUTION LARGE IND BUILDERS MERCHANT (25%) (60%) (10%) R50 133 MILLION R120 320 MILLION R20 053 MILLION SPECIALIST SHOP LOCAL HARDWARE STORE HYPERMARKET/SUPERMARKET (5%) (15%) (5%) R10 027 MILLION R30 080 MILLION R10 027 MILLION * 2010 Prices9 ** Residential and Non Residential © BMI-BRSCU
  10. 10. R MILLIONS (CURRENT VALUES)10 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 0 10 000 12 000 14 000 1993/01 1993/02 Defining Events 1993/03 1993/04 1994/01 Democratic Election 1994/02 1994/03 1994/04 1995/01 1995/02 1995/03 1995/04 1996/01 Transition to Democracy 1996/02 1996/03 1996/04 1997/01 1997/02 1997/03 1997/04 1998/01 Currency Collapse 1998/02 1998/03 1998/04 1999/01 1999/02 1999/03 1999/04 2000/01 2000/02 2000/03 2000/04 2001/01 2001/02 2001/03 World Trade Centre 2001/04 2002/01 2002/02 2002/03 ON TOP OF DECLINE OF - 4,99% IN 2009 VS 2008 2002/04 2003/01 2003/02 2003/03 2003/04 (Source: SARB; BMI-BRSCU Workings) 2004/01 BNG Housing Programme 2004/02 2004/03 www.strategicforum.co.za 2004/04 2005/01 CUM Q4 2010 VS 2009 = R40 811 MIO VS R45 321 MIO = - 9,95% 2005/02 2005/03 2005/04 CUMULATIVE YTD Q ON Q (PREVIOUS YEAR) % CHANGE 2006/01 2006/02 Sub Prime Crisis (NCA) 2006/03 2006/04 GFCF RESIDENTIAL BUILDING: Q1 1993-Q3 2011: CURRENT VALUES 2007/01 2007/02 2007/03 2007/04 2008/01 CUM YTD Q3 2011 VS 2010 = - 3,46% 2008/02 2008/03 2008/04 GFCF RESIDENTIAL BUILDING: Q1 1993-Q3 2011 2009/01 2009/02 2009/03 2009/04 Soccer World Cup 2010/01 2010/02 2010/03 2010/04 2011/01 2011/02 2011/03 2011/04 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% -20% -10% CUM Q/Q (PREVIOUS YEAR) % CHANGE© BMI-BRSCU
  11. 11. GFCF RESIDENTIAL BUILDING: Q1 1993-Q3 2011 www.strategicforum.co.za CUM Q/Q GFCF RESIDENTIAL 2011 VS 2010 (*Q3) (Source: SARB, BMI-BRSCU Workings) 45 000 0.00% MAT FORECAST 40 000 -1.00% -2.00% 35 000 Cum Q/Q Percentage Change -3.00% 30 000 -4.00% R Millions 25 000 -5.00% 20 000 -6.00% 15 000 -7.00% 10 000 -8.00% 5 000 -9.00% 0 -10.00% Cum Cum Cum Cum GFCF Q1 GFCF Q2 GFCF Q3 GFCF Q4 CUM Q/Q GFCF RESIDENTIAL 2010 10 283 20 685 30 912 40 811 CUM GFCF RESIDENTIAL 2011 9 388 19 425 29 842 39 741 CUM Q/Q % CHANGE 2011 VS 2010 -8.70% -6.09% -3.46% -2.62%11 © BMI-BRSCU
  12. 12. R MILLIONS (CURRENT VALUES)12 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 0 1993/01 1993/02 1993/03 1993/04 1994/01 Democratic Election 1994/02 1994/03 1994/04 1995/01 1995/02 1995/03 1995/04 1996/01 Transition to Democracy 1996/02 1996/03 1996/04 1997/01 1997/02 1997/03 1997/04 1998/01 Currency Collapse 1998/02 1998/03 1998/04 1999/01 1999/02 1999/03 1999/04 2000/01 2000/02 2000/03 2000/04 2001/01 2001/02 2001/03 World Trade Centre 2001/04 2002/01 2002/02 2002/03 ON TOP OF GROWTH OF + 31,93% IN 2008 VS 2007 2002/04 2003/01 2009 VS 2008 = R60 880 BIO VS R57 160 Bio = + 6,51% 2003/02 2003/03 www.strategicforum.co.za 2003/04 2004/01 BNG Housing Programme 2004/02 2004/03 (Source: SARB; BMI-BRSCU Workings) 2004/04 2005/01 2005/02 2005/03 2005/04 2006/01 2006/02 2006/03 2006/04 YTD Q3 2010 VS Q3 2009 = + 6,3% 2007/01 2007/02 CUMULATIVE YTD Q TO Q (PREVIOUS YEAR) PERCENTAGE CHANGE 2007/03 2007/04 GFCF NON RESIDENTIAL BUILDING: Q1 1993-Q3 2010: CURRENT VALUES 2008/01 2008/02 GFCF NON RESIDENTIAL BUILDING: Q1 1993-Q3 2011 2008/03 2008/04 Defining Events 2009/01 2009/02 2009/03 2009/04 2010/… 2010/… 2010/… 0% 5% -5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% -10% CUM YTD Q/Q % CHANGE© BMI-BRSCU
  13. 13. GFCF NON RESIDENTIAL BUILDING: Q1 1993-Q3 2011 www.strategicforum.co.za CUM Q/Q GFCF NON RESIDENTIAL BUILDING 2011 VS 2010 (*Q3) (Source: SARB, BMI-BRSCU Workings) 70 000 3.50% MAT FORECAST 60 000 3.00% Cum Q/Q Percentage Change 50 000 2.50%R Millions 40 000 30 000 2.00% 20 000 1.50% 10 000 0 1.00% 2011/01 2011/02 2011/03 2011/04 CUM Q/Q GFCF NON RES BUILDING 2010 14 935 29 646 44 028 58 747 CUM GFCF NON RES BUILDING 2011 15 151 30 416 45 509 60 228 CUM Q/Q % CHANGE 2011 VS 2010 1.45% 2.60% 3.36% 2.52%13 © BMI-BRSCU
  14. 14. 14 R Millions (Current Value) 5 000 0 10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 30 000 1993/01 1993/02 1993/03 Defining events 1993/04 1994/01 Democratic Election 1994/02 1994/03 1994/04 1995/01 1995/02 1995/03 1995/04 1996/01 Transition to Democracy 1996/02 1996/03 1996/04 1997/01 1997/02 1997/03 1997/04 1998/01 Currency Collapse 1998/02 1998/03 1998/04 1999/01 1999/02 1999/03 1999/04 2000/01 2000/02 2000/03 2000/04 2001/01 2001/02 2001/03 World Trade Centre 2001/04 2002/01 2002/02 2002/03 2002/04 Axis Title 2003/01 2003/02 2003/03 2003/04 ON TOP OF GROWTH OF + 1,28% IN 2009 VS 2008 2004/01 BNG Housing Programme www.strategicforum.co.za 2004/02 2004/03 2010 VS 2009 = R105 290 MIO VS R106 201 MIO = - 0,85% 2004/04 2005/01 (Source: SARB; BMI-BRSCU Workings) 2005/02 2005/03 2005/04 2006/01 2006/02 Sub Prime Crisis (NCA) Cumulative YTD Q/Q (Previous Year) % Change 2006/03 2006/04 2007/01 2007/02 2007/03 CUM YTD Q3 2011 VS 2010 = + 1,14% GFCF TOTAL BUILDING: Q1 1993-Q3 2011 2007/04 2008/01 2008/02 GFCF Total Building by Quarter: Q1 1993 - Q3 2011: Current Values 2008/03 2008/04 2009/01 2009/02 2009/03 2009/04 Soccer World Cup 2010/01 2010/02 2010/03 2010/04 2011/01 2011/02 2011/03 2011/04 0% 5% -5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% -10%© BMI-BRSCU Cum YTD Q/Q Percentage Change
  15. 15. GFCF TOTAL BUILDING: Q1 1993-Q3 2011 www.strategicforum.co.za CUM Q/Q GFCF TOTAL BUILDING 2011 VS 2010 (*Q3) (Source: SARB, BMI-BRSCU Workings) 120 000 1.50% MAT FORECAST 100 000 1.00% Cum Q/Q Percentage Change 80 000 0.50%R Millions 60 000 0.00% 40 000 -0.50% 20 000 -1.00% 0 -1.50% Cum Cum Cum Cum GFCF Q1 GFCF Q2 GFCF Q3 GFCF Q4 CUM Q/Q GFCF TOTAL BUILDING 2010 25 218 50 331 74 940 99 558 CUM GFCF TOTAL BUILDING 2011 24 539 49 841 75 351 99 969 CUM Q/Q % CHANGE 2011 VS 2010 -2.69% -0.97% 0.55% 0.41%15 © BMI-BRSCU
  16. 16. TREND IN TOTAL ACTIVITY: BPP AND BC: 1993-2011 (OCT) www.strategicforum.co.za Cum Y/Y % Ch: BPP and BC: Total Building (Incl A&A): 1993-2011: R*1000 (Current Values) (Oct) (Source: StatsSA; BMI-BRSCU: BC Total RSA by Month and Type of Building1993-2008: % CUM BC BY SEGM & MNTH: Chart 15(2)) 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5%-10%-15%-20%-25%-30%-35%-40%-45%-50% 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 % CUM BC BY SEGM& MNTH % CUM BPP BY SEGM& MNTH 12 per. Mov. Avg. (% CUM BC BY SEGM& MNTH) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (% CUM BPP BY SEGM& MNTH)16 © BMI-BRSCU
  17. 17. CUM YTD % CHANGE: TOTAL BPP & BC: 1994-2011 (OCT) www.strategicforum.co.za Cum Y/Y % Ch: BPP and BC: Total Building (Incl A&A): 1993-2011: R*1000 (Current Values) (Oct) (Source: StatsSA; BMI-BRSCU: BC Total RSA by Month and Type of Building1993-2008: % CUM BC BY SEGM & MNTH: Chart 15(2)) 60% 55% Total BC turned at about – 50% 45% 21% and move to positive 40% 35% growth by third quarter 2011 30% ... 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5%-10%-15%-20%-25%-30%-35%-40% Total BPP has turned at -35%-45%-50% and has breached zero in 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 first quarter 2011 . . . % CUM BC BY SEGM& MNTH % CUM BPP BY SEGM& MNTH 12 per. Mov. Avg. (% CUM BC BY SEGM& MNTH) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (% CUM BPP BY SEGM& MNTH)17 © BMI-BRSCU
  18. 18. NET BUILDING IN THE PIPELINE: 1993-2011 (OCT) www.strategicforum.co.za Total Building: BC: 1993-2011: Net Building in the Pipeline (NBIP): by Month: R*1000 (Current Values) (Oct) (Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU: BC Total RSA by Month and Type of Building1993-2008: NBIP (BPP-BC): Chart 16) 6 000 000 Total BC Trend-break 5 000 000 occurred in mid 2006. 4 000 000 3 000 000 2 000 000 1 000 000 0-1 000 000 1997 1993 1994 1995 1996 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Recovery is on the way. Total Building NBIP (BPP-BC) Total Building BC 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Total Building NBIP (BPP-BC)) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Total Building BC)18 © BMI-BRSCU
  19. 19. RES & NR TOTAL BC: CUM ACTUAL 2011 VS 2010 (OCT): R MIO www.strategicforum.co.za RES & NON RES TOTAL (INCL A&A): BC: CUM ACTUAL 2011 VERSUS 2010 BY MONTH: TOTAL RSA (OCT 2011) (Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU Workings) 50 000 000 8% MAT FORECAST 7% 45 000 000 6% 5% Percentage Difference: Cum Actual 2011 vs 2010 40 000 000 4% 3% 35 000 000 2% 1% 30 000 000 0% R*1000 -1% 25 000 000 -2% -3% 20 000 000 -4% 15 000 000 -5% -6% 10 000 000 -7% -8% 5 000 000 -9% -10% 0 -11% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Res & NR Total: Cum Actual 2011: R*Mio 2 311 880 5 592 182 9 901 043 13 234 927 16 913 223 20 891 288 24 378 793 27 411 814 31 193 159 35 377 527 39 570 706 43 051 164 Res & NR Total: Cum Actual 2010: R*Mio 2 581 377 5 608 302 9 246 066 12 634 091 17 614 549 20 863 652 25 638 996 29 341 407 32 305 378 36 174 586 40 367 765 43 848 223 Res & NR Total: Cum Actual 2011 vs 2010 -10.44% -0.29% 7.08% 4.76% -3.98% 0.13% -4.92% -6.58% -3.44% -2.20% -1.97% -1.82%19 © BMI-BRSCU
  20. 20. % DIFFERENCE IN CUM Y/Y BC : ACTUAL 2011 VS 2010: OCT www.strategicforum.co.za % Difference in Cumulative Y/Y BC: Cum Actual Oct 2011 vs 2010 by Segment: Total RSA (Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU Workings) 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5%-10%-15%-20%-25%-30%-35%-40% R000 R000 R000 R000 R000 R000 R000 R000 R000 R000 R000 R000 R000 R000 No No No m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 Dwellings < Dwellings > Flats and TH Other Total Office & Shopping Ind&WH Other Total A&A A&A Other Total A&A 80m2 80m2 Banking Dwellings Total20 © BMI-BRSCU
  21. 21. CURRENT REALITY OF INVESTMENT IN BUILDING BY SECTOR AND SEGMENT: 2010 INVESTMENT IN BUILDING BY SECTOR AND BY SEGMENT: 2010: M2*1000 (TOTAL = 42 929 Million m2) (Source: SARB, StatsSA, MFA, BMI -BRSCU Workings) PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL 0 Dwelling-houses < 80 m2 1 049 Dwelling-houses > 80 m2 3 714 Townhouses & Flats 1 333 TOTAL = 42 929 Million m2 Other (Incl. hotels & casinos) 215 Additions & alterations 2 971 PUBLIC RESIDENTIAL Affordable Housing 9 092 Public authorities. 954 Public corporations 8 TOTAL RESIDENTIAL 19 334 PRIVATE NON-RESIDENTIAL Offices 1 358 Shops 1 714 Industrial & warehouse 3 075 Other 712 Additions & Alterations 2 725 PUBLIC NON-RESIDENTIAL Public Authorities 2 866 Public Corporations 1 053 TOTAL NON RESIDENTIAL 13 503 Unrecorded Res Adds and Alts 6 246Unrecorded Non Res Adds and Alts 3 846 0 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 12 000 14 000 16 000 18 000 20 00021 © BMI-BRSCU
  22. 22. CURRENT REALITY OF MAJOR BUILDING PRODUCTS BY PRODUCT: 2009 The market for major Building Product Groups by value: 2009 (Source: BMI-BRSCU) 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% Roofing and Vertical Cladding 4.40% Ceilings and Partitioning 1.26% Walling 7.28% Paving 1.35% Wall Tiles 1.36% Flooring 6.27% Cement 12.84% Aggregate and Sand 6.43% Reinforcing Steel and Sections 13.42% Sanware 3.01% Taps, Mixers and Fittings 2.61% Plumbing Pipes and Fittings 1.56% Pipes and Fittings 10.16% Geysers 1.90% Glass and Mirrors 1.98% Doors 1.17% Total value of major Building Product Garage Doors 0.33% Groups = R103,4 Billion in 2009. Frames 2.85% Major Building Product Groups account Roof Trusses 2.95% for 52,32% of Total Building and Construction Materials and 31,4% of TotalWindowsills, Fasciaboards and Bargeboards 0.87% Investment in Building and Construction. Rainwater Goods 0.25% Decorative Paint 6.46% Flatboard (PB, MDF, Other)** 8.27% Insulation 1.01%22 © BMI-BRSCU

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