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The industry dashboard april 2013
The industry dashboard april 2013
The industry dashboard april 2013
The industry dashboard april 2013
The industry dashboard april 2013
The industry dashboard april 2013
The industry dashboard april 2013
The industry dashboard april 2013
The industry dashboard april 2013
The industry dashboard april 2013
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The industry dashboard april 2013

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The Building, Construction and Property Industry Dashboard takes a holistic systemic view of the State of the Industry with analysis of all the interconnecting influences and takes a short-term view …

The Building, Construction and Property Industry Dashboard takes a holistic systemic view of the State of the Industry with analysis of all the interconnecting influences and takes a short-term view of the future(one year) as well as well as a long-term view to 2020.

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  1. BMI-BRSCU Industry Dashboard: April 2012BMiBMI-BRSCU INDUSTRY DASHBOARD APRIL 20131BMiBMIStudium Ad ProsperandumVoluntas in ConveniendumBUILDING RESEARCHSTRATEGY CONSULTINGUNIT ccReg. No. 2002/105109/23•BMIStudium Ad ProsperandumVoluntas in ConveniendumBUILDING RESEARCHSTRATEGY CONSULTINGUNIT cc•BMI•BMI•BMI•BMIStudium Ad ProsperandumVoluntas in ConveniendumBUILDING RESEARCHSTRATEGY CONSULTINGUNIT ccReg. No. 2002/105109/23•BMIStudium Ad ProsperandumVoluntas in ConveniendumBUILDING RESEARCHSTRATEGY CONSULTINGUNIT cc•BMI•BMI•BMI•BMI•BMI•BMI•Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecY/Y Cum Actual 2007 25 978 62 107 100 948 132 633 173 165 202 794 234 730 266 502 294 231 326 922 358 811 384 052Y/Y Cum Actual 2012 15 440 37 567 58 475 75 204 92 776 110 403 127 594 144 446 161 212 180 877 199 963 214 894Y/Y Cum Actual 2013 14 035 32 570 52 604 69 866 89 213 107 772 126 387 146 153 165 534 186 958 207 733 224 262Y/Y Cum Actual 2013 vs 2012 % Change -9.10% -13.30%-10.04% -7.10% -3.84% -2.38% -0.95% 1.18% 2.68% 3.36% 3.89% 4.36%-16%-14%-12%-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%050 000100 000150 000200 000250 000300 000350 000400 000RMillions(CurrentValues)Cum Actual New Mortgage Loans and Readvances applied on Existing Buildings:2013 vs 2012 and 2007 by month(Source: SARB, BMI-BRSCU Workings)MAT FORECASTACTUALTHE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: APRIL 2013: MORTGAGE ADVANCES (DEC 2012),GFCF RES, NON-RES AND CONSTRUCTION (DEC 2012), BPP AND BC (FEB 2013),CEMENT (DEC 2012) AND LUMBER SALES (MARCH 2013).The Building, Construction and Property Industry is a large system of some R3 Trillion whichis interconnected with a multitude of local and global influences affecting itsdevelopment.The Building and Construction Industry is about R350 Billion annually, it has momentum, hascritical mass and it has a good future.The Industry is fundamentally dependent on the availability of financing. Consequently it isimportant to monitor all the segments of the Mortgage Bond Market because it informsour understanding of the finance available in the pipeline. Outstanding MortgageAdvances is about R1095 Billion and Total Mortgage Advances amounted to aboutR238 Billion in 2012 (compared to R441 Billion in 2007).MORTGAGE ADVANCES (DEC 2012)Mortgage Loans and Re-advances on EXISTING Buildings ended 2012 at – 5,93% (-R13,544 Billion) compared to 2011 (but – 44,05% compared to 2007).Cumulative Y/Y January 2012 for Mortgage Advances on EXISTING BUILDINGS recordedan increase of +13,10% compared to 2011, followed by a Cumulative Y/Y increase of +13,38% in February, + 6,99% in March, + 5,54% in April, + 4,41% in May, + 1,79% inJune, -0,55% in July, -3,55% in Aug, -6,84% in Sept, - 5,99% in Oct, - 6,47% in Novand – 5,93% in December thus a DECLINING trend.The MAT Forecast for EXISTING BUILDINGS shows an INCREASE of + 4,36% for 2013vs 2012.
  2. BMI-BRSCU Industry Dashboard: April 2012BMiBMI-BRSCU INDUSTRY DASHBOARD APRIL 20132BMiJan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecY/Y Cum Actual 2007 1 884 4 617 7 589 9 943 13 030 15 327 17 955 20 424 22 582 25 076 27 213 28 574Y/Y Cum Actual 2012 1061 2192 4234 6 027 7 617 9548 11422 12824 14242 15 884 17 592 18 954Y/Y Cum Forecast 2013 1215 2751 4474 6054 7889 9646 11407 13161 14883 16759 18447 19781% Change Y/Y Cum Actual 2013 vs 2012 14.47% 25.49% 5.66% 0.45% 3.57% 1.03% -0.13% 2.63% 4.50% 5.51% 4.86% 4.36%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%05 00010 00015 00020 00025 00030 00035 000%DifferenceY/YCumActual2013vs2012RMillions(CurrentValues)Y/Y Cum Actual Gross new Mortgage Loans and Readvances for Construction of new Buildings2013 vs 2012 and 2007 by month(Source: SARB, BMI-BRSCU Workings)MAT FORECASTACTUALMortgage Loans and Re-advances on CONSTRUCTION of NEW Buildings ended 2012at + 21,77% (+ R3,388 Billion) compared to 2011 (but – 33,67% compared to 2007).Cumulative Y/Y January 2012 for Mortgage Advances on CONSTRUCTION of NEWBuildings recorded an increase of +18,15% compared to 2011, followed by CumulativeY/Y increase of + 12,07% in February, + 36,98% in March, + 40,08% in April, +43,39% in May, + 41,14% in June, + 42,90% in July, + 37,01% in Aug, + 29,99% inSept, +26,34% in Oct, +24,62% in Nov and + 21,77% in December thus a stronggrowth trend.The MAT Forecast for CONSTRUCTION OF NEW BUILDINGS shows an INCREASE of +4,36% for 2013 vs 2012.Mortgage Loans and Re-advances on VACANT LAND ended 2012 at – 54,58% (- R5,163Billion) compared to 2011 (but – 85,07% compared to 2007).Cumulative Y/Y January 2012 for Mortgage Advances on VACANT LAND recorded andecrease of – 47,43% compared to 2011, followed by Cumulative Y/Y decrease of – 45,55%in February, – 38,21% in March, - 48,35% in April, - 43,36% in May, - 46,97% in June, -42,92% in July, - 42,27% in Aug, – 46,34% in Sept, - 48,92% in Oct, - 53,04% in Nov and –54,58% in Dec, thus a decreasing trend and still far behind 2011 and very far behind 2007.The MAT Forecast for VACANT LAND shows an INCREASE of + 4,36% for 2013 vs2012.TOTAL GROSS NEW MORTGAGE LOANS AND RE-ADVANCES ended 2012 at – 6,04%(- R15,315 Billion) compared to 2012 (but – 46,05% compared to 2007).Cumulative Y/Y January 2011 for TOTAL GROSS NEW MORTGAGE LOANS ANDREADVANCES recorded an increase of + 11,45% compared to 2011, followed byCumulative Y/Y increase of + 11,40% in February, + 7,12% in March, +5,55% in April, +4,87% in May, + 2,22% in June, + 0,37% in July, - 2,67% in Aug, – 6,15% in Sept, -5,64% inOct, - 6,37% in Nov and -6,04% in Dec - thus a declining trend and still very far behind2007.The MAT Forecast for TOTAL GROSS NEW MORTGAGE LOANS AND RE-ADVANCESshows an DECREASE of + 4,36% for 2013 vs 2012.
  3. BMI-BRSCU Industry Dashboard: April 2012BMiBMI-BRSCU INDUSTRY DASHBOARD APRIL 20133BMiJan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecY/Y Cum Actual 2007 2 250 5 202 8 380 10 793 13 689 15 707 17 937 20 463 22 479 24 893 27 144 28 784Y/Y Cum Actual FC 2013 294 645 1032 1391 1792 2178 2573 2969 3343 3754 4149 4484Y/Y Cum Actual 2012 256 642 1166 1484 1903 2340 2928 3510 3692 3961 4178 4297Y/Y Cum Actual FC 2013 vs 2012 % Change 14.97% 0.46% -11.52% -6.28% -5.84% -6.94% -12.11% -15.42% -9.47% -5.22% -0.70% 4.36%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%05 00010 00015 00020 00025 00030 00035 000RMillions(CurrentValues)Cum Actual New Mortgage Loans and Readvances applied on Vacant Land:2013 vs 2012 and 2007 by month(Source: SARB, BMI-BRSCU Workings)MAT FORECASTACTUALJan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecY/Y Cum Actual 2007 30111 71925 116917 153368 199882 233827 270620 307387 339290 376890 413167 441410Y/Y Cum Actual 2012 16758 40402 63876 82716 102296 122292 141944 160781 179147 200723 221734 238146Y/Y CUM Actual 2013 15 384 35 457 57 458 76 646 98 306 119 02 139 84 161 92 183 55 207 33 230 25 248 52Y/Y Cum % Change Actual 2013 vs 2012 -8.20% -12.24 -10.05 -7.34% -3.90% -2.67% -1.48% 0.71% 2.46% 3.29% 3.84% 4.36%-14%-12%-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%050000100000150000200000250000300000350000400000450000RMillionsY/Y Cum Actual Total gross new Mortgage Loans and Readvances:2013 vs 2012 and 2007 by month: January - Dec(Source: SARB, BMI-BRSCU Workings)MAT FORECASTACTUALY/YCum%ChangeActual2013vs2012GFCF FOR RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS ended 2012 at + 9,19% compared to 2011 (on topof decline of – 2,47% for 2011 vs 2010).Cumulative Q/Q for Q1 2012 for GFCF RESIDENTIAL recorded an increase of + 8,51%compared to Q1 2011, + 8,94% Q2 2012 vs Q2 2011, + 9,30% for Q3 2012 vs Q3 2011 and+ 9,19% for Q4 2012 vs Q4 2011 - thus a gradually IMPROVING trend.The MAT Forecast for GFCF RESIDENTIAL shows an INCREASE of + 4,89% for 2013 vs2012.
  4. BMI-BRSCU Industry Dashboard: April 2012BMiBMI-BRSCU INDUSTRY DASHBOARD APRIL 20134BMiCumRes/QCUM Q/Q GFCF RESIDENTIAL 2012 10 043 20 891 32 223 43 303CUM GFCF RESIDENTIAL 2013 10 528 21 776 33 534 45 420CUM Q/Q % CHANGE 2013 VS 2012 4.83% 4.23% 4.07% 4.89%CUM Q/Q % CHANGE 2012 VS 2011 8.51% 8.94% 9.30% 9.19%0.00%1.00%2.00%3.00%4.00%5.00%6.00%7.00%8.00%9.00%10.00%05 00010 00015 00020 00025 00030 00035 00040 00045 00050 000CumQ/QPercentageChangeRMillionsCUM Q/Q GFCF RESIDENTIAL 2013 VS 2012 (FC)(Source: SARB, BMI-BRSCU Workings)MAT FORECASTACTUAL2012/01 2012/02 2012/03 2012/04CUM GFCF NON RES BUILDING 2012 16 426 32 682 48 451 64 929CUM GFCF NON RES BUILDING 2013 16082 32194 48617 66209CUM Q/Q % CHANGE 2013 VS 2012 -2.10% -1.49% 0.34% 1.97%CUM Q/Q % CHANGE 2012 VS 2011 10.01% 10.35% 9.53% 8.70%-4.00%-2.00%0.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%10.00%12.00%010 00020 00030 00040 00050 00060 00070 000CumQ/QPercentageChangeRMillionsCUM Q/Q GFCF NON RESIDENTIAL BUILDING 2013 VS 2012(Source: SARB, BMI-BRSCU Workings)MAT FORECASTACTUALGFCF FOR NON RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS ended 2012 at + 8,70% compared to 2011(on top of GROWTH of + 8,21% for 2011 vs 2010).Cumulative Q/Q for Q1 2012 for GFCF NON RESIDENTIAL recorded an increase of +10,01% compared to Q1 2011, + 10,35% for Q2 2012 vs Q2 2011 and + 9,53% for Q3 2012vs Q3 2011 and + 8,70% for Q4 2012 vs Q4 2011 - thus an IMPROVING trend.The MAT Forecast for GFCF NON RESIDENTIAL shows an INCREASE of + 1,97% for2013 vs 2012.
  5. BMI-BRSCU Industry Dashboard: April 2012BMiBMI-BRSCU INDUSTRY DASHBOARD APRIL 20135BMiCumGFCF Q1CumGFCF Q2CumGFCF Q3CumGFCF Q4CUM Q/Q GFCF TOTAL BUILDING 2012 26 469 53 573 80 674 108 232CUM GFCF TOTAL BUILDING 2013 26 610 53 970 82 151 111 629CUM Q/Q % CHANGE 2013 VS 2012 0.53% 0.74% 1.83% 3.14%CUM Q/Q % CHANGE 2012 VS 2011 9.44% 9.80% 9.44% 8.89%0.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%10.00%12.00%020 00040 00060 00080 000100 000120 000CumQ/QPercentageChangeRMillionsCUM Q/Q GFCF TOTAL BUILDING 2013 VS 2012 (FC)(Source: SARB, BMI-BRSCU Workings)MAT FORECASTACTUAL2012/01 2012/02 2012/03 2012/04CUM GFCF CONSTRUCTION 2012 45 393 90 913 137 498 185 772CUM GFCF CONSTRUCTION 2013 40 149 80 550 122 812 168 358CUM Q/Q % CHANGE GFCF CONSTR 2013VS 2012-11.55% -11.40% -10.68% -9.37%CUM Q/Q % CHANGE GFCF CONSTR 2012VS 20119.51% 10.19% 9.86% 9.40%-15.00%-10.00%-5.00%0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%020 00040 00060 00080 000100 000120 000140 000160 000180 000200 000CumQ/QPercentageChangeRMillionsCUM Q/Q GFCF CONSTRUCTION: 2013 VS 2012 (FC)(Source: SARB, BMI-BRSCU Workings)MAT FORECASTACTUALGFCF FOR TOTAL BUILDINGS ended 2012 at + 8,89% compared to 2011 (on top ofDECLINE of – 0,02% for 2011 vs 2010).Cumulative Q/Q for Q1 2012 for GFCF TOTAL BUILDING recorded an increase of + 9,44%compared to Q1 2011, + 9,80% for Q2 2012 vs Q2 2011, + 9,44% for Q3 2012 vs Q3 2011and + 8,89% for Q4 2012 vs Q4 2011 - thus an IMPROVING trend.The MAT Forecast for GFCF TOTAL BUILDING shows a INCREASE of + 3,14% for 2013vs 2012.GFCF FOR CONSTRUCTION ended 2012 at + 9,40% compared to 2011 (on top ofGROWTH of + 7,32% for 2011 vs 2010).Cumulative Q/Q for 2012 for GFCF CONSTRUCTION recorded an increase of + 9,51%compared to Q1 2011 and + 10,19% for Q2 2012 vs Q2 2011 and + 9,86% for Q3 2012 vsQ3 2011 and + 9,40% for Q4 2012 vs Q4 2011 - thus an IMPROVING trend.The MAT Forecast for GFCF CONSTRUCTION shows a DECREASE of – 9,37% for 2013vs 2012.
  6. BMI-BRSCU Industry Dashboard: April 2012BMiBMI-BRSCU INDUSTRY DASHBOARD APRIL 20136BMiNumbers m2 R*10006.44% 7.68% 9.91%5.58% 8.56% 9.85%16.72% 15.58% 17.38%-3.21% -5.50%-4.22% -3.24%5.22% 6.74%m2 R*100015.95% 18.11%22.12% 25.13%9.09% 9.63%-4.93% -2.68%-2.62% -1.65%8.47% 10.08%6.24% 7.84%GRAND TOTAL RES AND NON RES* Feb 2013ShoppingIndustrial and warehouseOther buildingsAdditions and alterationsTOTAL NON RESIDENTIALNON RES BUILDING PLANS PASSED (BPP): YTD FC 2013 VS 2012: TOTAL RSAOffice and bankingFlats and townhousesOther buildingsAdds and altsTOTAL RES* Feb 2013RES BUILDING PLANS PASSED (BPP): YTD FC 2013 VS 2012: TOTAL RSADwelling-house < 80 square metresDwelling-house => 80 square metresTOTAL BUILDING PLANS PASSED (M2) ENDED 2012 AT + 0,42% COMPARED TO2011.CUMULATIVE Y/Y building plans passed (BPP) by larger municipalities (in m2) for YTD February2013 increased by + 17,98% compared with February 2012.• Additions and Alterations BPP increased (+ 2,32%),• Residential BPP increased (+ 7,33%),• Non-Residential BPP increased (+ 62,86%).• Longer term trends in BPP reflect a slow growth scenario.The MAT Forecast for Residential BPP (including A&A) (in m2) shows growth of +5,22%, Non Residential BPP showed growth of + 8,47% and Total BPP showsgrowth of + 6,24% for 2013 vs 2012.TOTAL BUILDINGS COMPLETED (M2) ENDED 2012 AT – 1,21% COMPARED TO 2011.CUMULATIVE Y/Y Total buildings reported as completed (BC) to larger municipalities (inm2) for YTD February 2013 increased by + 11,56% compared with February 2012.• Non-residential BC increased (+ 1,42%),• Residential BC increased (+ 13,61%) and• Additions and Alterations BC increased (+ 17,91%).After these first 2 months of 2013 results it is our view that the decline in Private Residentialhas been arrested and will show growth and Non Residential BC will decline in 2013.The MAT Forecast for 2013 indicates that the Residential BC (including A&A) (in m2)will increase by + 6,69%, Non-Residential BC will increase by + 3,42%, and Total BCshowed decline of + 5,68% for 2013 vs 2012.
  7. BMI-BRSCU Industry Dashboard: April 2012BMiBMI-BRSCU INDUSTRY DASHBOARD APRIL 20137BMiJan Feb March April May June July August Sept Oct Nov DecRes Total: YTD FC 2013: M2 447943 1038431 1596436 2095441 2656015 3214767 3802199 4401256 4984454 5591813 6239566 6749288 6749288Res Total: YTD Actual 2012: M2 407773 903465 1486183 1959757 2483078 3008201 3546225 4131981 4632759 5174910 5823424 6325813 6325813Res Total: YTD FC 2013 vs 2012: % 9.85% 14.94% 7.42% 6.92% 6.96% 6.87% 7.22% 6.52% 7.59% 8.06% 7.15% 6.69% 6.69%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%010000002000000300000040000005000000600000070000008000000PercentageDifference:YTDFC2013vs2012M2RESIDENTIAL TOTAL (INCL A&A): BC: YTD FC 2013 VS 2012 BY MONTH (FEB)(Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU Workings)YTD FORECASTCUM ACTUALJan Feb March April May June July August Sept Oct Nov DecNR Total:YTD FC 2013: R*Mio 132148 450938 712336 947875 1196298 1433184 1680147 1920282 2177764 2448764 2718685 2937955NR Total: YTD Actual 2012: R*Mio 191336 431549 643784 994828 1301855 1497235 1657694 1875385 2197376 2352147 2660705 2840690NR Total: YTD FC 2013 vs 2012: % -30.93% 4.49% 10.65% -4.72% -8.11% -4.28% 1.35% 2.39% -0.89% 4.11% 2.18% 3.42%-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%0200000040000006000000800000010000000120000001400000016000000PercentageDifference:YTDFC2013vs2012M2NON RES TOTAL (INCL A&A): BC: YTD FC 2013 VERSUS 2012 BY MONTH (FEB)(Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU Workings)YTD FORECASTCUM ACTUALJan FebMarchApril May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov DecRes & NR Total: YTD FC 2013 580091 1489369 2308772 3043316 3852313 4647951 5482346 6321538 7162218 8040577 8958251 9687243Res & NR Total: YTD Actual 2012 599109 1335014 2129967 2954585 3784933 4505436 5203919 6007366 6830135 7527057 8484129 9166503Res & NR Total: % Difference YTD FC 2013 vs 2012 -3.17% 11.56% 8.39% 3.00% 1.78% 3.16% 5.35% 5.23% 4.86% 6.82% 5.59% 5.68%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%020000004000000600000080000001000000012000000M2RES & NON RES TOTAL (INCL A&A): BC: YTD FC 2013 VERSUS 2012 BY MONTH (FEB)(Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU: Buildings Completed Total RSA; Chart BC57)%Difference:YTDActual2012vsYTDForecast2013CUM ACTUAL YTD FORECAST
  8. BMI-BRSCU Industry Dashboard: April 2012BMiBMI-BRSCU INDUSTRY DASHBOARD APRIL 20138BMiJan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecCum YTD sales: 2012 779 003 1 663 70 2 637 34 3 510 50 4 486 60 5 552 46 6 488 79 7 465 47 8 528 70 9 615 29 10 789 9 11 559 5Forecast 2013 757 618 1 618 03 2 637 34 3 486 53 4 435 84 5 472 44 6 383 06 7 332 93 8 366 97 9 351 33 10 493 7 11 242 2% Change FC 2013 VS 2012 1.44% 0.69% 1.40% 0.69% -0.10% -0.95% -0.86% -0.76% -0.66% -1.81% -2.38% -2.75%-3%-3%-2%-2%-1%-1%0%1%1%2%2%02 000 0004 000 0006 000 0008 000 00010 000 00012 000 00014 000 000TonnesDomestic Cement Sales: Cumulative FC 2013 vs 2012(Source: Cement & Concrete Institute; BMI-BRSCU Workings)Cumulitive%Change:YTD2013vs2012FORECASTBMI-BRSCU Estimate of Cement SalesPublication of Cement Statistics stopped on 3 April2012 by Competition Commission. PPC withdrewfrom providing statistics and C&CI disbanded and thelast statistics were provided on 3rd April 2013.No further statistics will be provided.DOMESTIC CEMENT SALES (TONNES) ENDED 2012 AT + 2,89% COMPARED TO 2011Cumulative Y/Y January 2012 for Domestic Cement Sales recorded an increase of +21,96% compared to 2011, followed by Cumulative Y/Y increase of +13,74% inFebruary and +6,71% in March, +6,77% in April, +6,81% in May, +6,84% in June,+5,17% in July, +3,91% in August, +2,88% in September, + 2,89 in Oct, Nov andDec.The MAT Forecast for Domestic Cement Sales shows decline of - 2,75% for 2013 vs2012.The Building and Construction Industry is still suffering from a lack of timeous andcomprehensive information. Unfortunately the Competition Commission decided to ban thepublication of cement statistics which was the best source of information. The major cementmanufacturers have admitted to collusion and have been fined, but the Building andConstruction Industry will be punished in perpetuity through the banning of strategicallyimportant information.The cement industry will have greater competition from the end of 2013 when new entrantSephaku starts production. Sephaku is also building a cement mill near Delmas, inMpumalanga. We look like we will produce 2.5-million tons a year from the end of next year,Mr Fourie CEO of the Company said (Business Day, 10 Dec 2012).LOCAL BUILDING LUMBER SALES (M3) ENDED 2012 AT + 0,38% COMPARED TO2011.Cumulative Y/Y January 2013 for Local Building Lumber Sales recorded a decrease of– 0,75% compared to 2012, followed by a decrease of – 2,62% in February 2012, -6,22% in March, With 3 months passed in 2013, it is evident that the growth in LocalBuilding Lumber Sales has ended as has become evident in 2012.The MAT Forecast for Local Building Lumber Sales (in m3) shows a decline of – 1,56%for 2013 vs 2012.
  9. BMI-BRSCU Industry Dashboard: April 2012BMiBMI-BRSCU INDUSTRY DASHBOARD APRIL 20139BMiJan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2012 Cum Y/Y Local Building 80 164 176 989 279 604 366 414 463 621 554 962 642 100 747 186 836 497 943 845 1 055 1 1 114 12013 Cum Y/Y FC Local Building 79 559 172 349 262 215 349 025 446 232 537 573 624 711 729 797 819 108 926 456 1 037 7 1 096 7% Change Cum Y/Y Local Building: FC 2013 vs 2012 -0.75% -2.62% -6.22% -4.75% -3.75% -3.13% -2.71% -2.33% -2.08% -1.84% -1.65% -1.56%-7%-6%-5%-4%-3%-2%-1%0%-200 000400 000600 000800 0001 000 0001 200 000CubicMetresLumber Sales by End-use: Local Building: Cum Y/Y 2013 FC vs 2012 (March)(Source: Crickmay & Associates, BMI-BRSCU Workings)%ChangeCumY/YLocalBuilding:2013vs2012ACTUAL MAT FORECASTPROGNOSISFrom the foregoing comparisons it can be seen that the MAT Forecast for MORTGAGEADVANCES for the Construction of New Buildings shows an increase on 2012 (but –33,67% of the 2007 level); GFCF Residential, Non Residential and Total Building showshealthy growth and Construction is expected to decline. The majority of other indicatorsindicate a turning point and the MAT Forecasts display a generally flat pattern for 2013 vs2012.• Mortgage Advances on EXISTING BUILDINGS, CONSTRUCTION OF NEWBUILDINGS, VACANT LAND and TOTAL GROSS NEW MORTGAGE LOANS AND RE-ADVANCES shows an INCREASE of + 4,36%• GFCF RESIDENTIAL shows an INCREASE of + 4,89%• GFCF NON RESIDENTIAL shows an INCREASE of + 1,97%• GFCF TOTAL BUILDING shows an INCREASE of + 3,14%• GFCF CONSTRUCTION shows a DECREASE of – 9,37%• Residential BPP shows growth of + 5,22%• Non Residential BPP shows an increase of + 8,47%• Total BPP shows an increase of + 6,24%• Residential BC shows growth of + 6,69%• Non Residential BC shows an increase of + 3,42%• Total BC shows growth of + 5,68%• Domestic Cement Sales shows a decrease of - 2,75% and• Local Building Lumber Sales shows an increase of – 1,56%.The graphic overleaf shows the YTD Actual and the MAT Forecast expected.
  10. BMI-BRSCU Industry Dashboard: April 2012BMiBMI-BRSCU INDUSTRY DASHBOARD APRIL 201310BMi-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%PercentageJan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13Total Res BC Cum YTD % Change (m2) 9.85% 14.94% 7.42% 6.92% 6.96% 6.87% 7.22% 6.52% 7.59% 8.06% 7.15% 6.69%Total Non Res BC Cum YTD % Change (m2) -30.93% 4.49% 10.65% -4.72% -8.11% -4.28% 1.35% 2.39% -0.89% 4.11% 2.18% 3.42%Total BC Cum YTD % Change (m2) -3.17% 11.56% 8.39% 3.00% 1.78% 3.16% 5.35% 5.23% 4.86% 6.82% 5.59% 5.68%Domestic Cement Sales (Tonnes) 1.44% 0.69% 1.40% 0.69% -0.10% -0.95% -0.86% -0.76% -0.66% -1.81% -2.38% -2.75%Local Building Lumber Sales (m3) -0.75% -2.62% -6.22% -4.75% -3.75% -3.13% -2.71% -2.33% -2.08% -1.84% -1.65% -1.56%Total Residential BPP (m2) -2.70% 3.67% 6.97% 8.14% 7.32% 8.09% 8.48% 7.34% 7.93% 7.22% 5.57% 5.22%Total Non Residential BPP (m2) 84.87% 53.33% 56.87% 41.12% 29.69% 20.94% 21.22% 19.31% 16.18% 12.44% 10.57% 8.47%Total Building BPP (m2) 20.72% 17.98% 20.59% 17.70% 14.01% 12.05% 12.35% 10.96% 10.46% 8.84% 7.12% 6.24%Cumulative YTD Buildings Completed (BC), Domestic Cement Sales and Local Building Lumber Sales:% Change by Sector: January - Dec 2013(Source: StatsSA; BMI-BRSCU Workings)CUM ACTUALBMI-BRSCU Estimate of Cement SalesPublication of Cement Statistics stopped on 3 April2012 by Competition Commission. PPC withdrewfrom providing statistics and C&CI disbanded and thelast statistics were provided on 3rd April 2013.No further statistics will be provided.CUM FORECASTDr. Llewellyn B Lewis, Principal Consultant,BMI Building Research Strategy Consulting Unit cc,research@bmi-brscu.co.zawww.strategicforum.co.zaTel: (011) 884 2075, Cell 082 884 0063, Fax 086 6472 494May 2013

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