Lumber sales YTD 2012 (Dec 2012)

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In this analysis we look at the performance of Local Building Lumber Sales in particular related to BPP and BC, Cement Sales.

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Lumber sales YTD 2012 (Dec 2012)

  1. 1. THE STRATEGIC FORUM www.strategicforum.co.za Studium Ad Prosperandum •• BUILDING RESEARCH BUILDING RESEARCH BMI BMI STRATEGY CONSULTING STRATEGY CONSULTING UNIT cc UNIT cc Voluntas in Conveniendum Reg. No. 2002/105109/23 THE STRATEGIC FORUM A place of assembly for strategic conversations Towards Making sense of the Building Industry: Lumber Sales Dr. Llewellyn B. Lewis January 20131 © BMI-BRSCU
  2. 2. THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: BPP & BC, CEMENT AND LUMBER SALES: 2010, 2011 & 2012 THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: JAN 2013: CEMENT (SEPT 2012) AND LUMBER SALES (DEC 2012), BPP AND BC (NOV 2012), . DOMESTIC CEMENT SALES (TONNES) ENDED 2011 AT +3,35% COMPARED TO 2010 Cumulative Y/Y January 2012 for Domestic Cement Sales recorded an increase of + 21,69% compared to 2011, followed by Cumulative Y/Y increase of +13,74% in February and +6,71% in March, +6,77% in April, +6,81% in May, +6,84% in June, +5,17% in July, +3,91% in August and +2,88% in September. The MAT Forecast for Domestic Cement Sales shows growth of + 2,13% for 2012 vs 2011. Domestic Cement Sales: Cumulative YTD 2012 vs 2011 and MAT Forecast 2012 (Source: Cement & Concrete Institute; BMI-BRSCU Workings) 12 000 000 25% ACTUAL MAT FORECAST 10 000 000 20% Cumulitive % Change: YTD 2012 vs 2011 8 000 000 15% Tonnes Publication of Cement Statistics stopped on 3 6 000 000 April 2012 by Competition Commission. Quarterly Statistics, delayed by 3 months will be published in future. Extrapolation by BMI- 10% BRSCU. 4 000 000 5% 2 000 000 0 0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Cum YTD sales: 2011 638 749 1 462 683 2 471 585 3 287 922 4 200 506 5 197 006 6 170 010 7 184 949 8 289 826 9 345 495 10 486 74311 234 427 Cum YTD sales 2012 & MAT Forecast 779 003 1 663 703 2 637 349 3 510 506 4 486 609 5 552 469 6 488 841 7 465 568 8 528 848 9 584 517 10 725 76511 473 449 % Change Cum YTD 2012 VS 2011 21.96% 13.74% 6.71% 6.77% 6.81% 6.84% 5.17% 3.91% 2.88% 2.56% 2.28% 2.13%2
  3. 3. THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: BPP & BC, CEMENT AND LUMBER SALES: 2010, 2011 & 2012 LOCAL BUILDING LUMBER SALES (M3) ENDED 2011 AT +14,6% COMPARED TO 2010. Cumulative Y/Y January 2012 for Local Building Lumber Sales recorded a decrease of - 4,10% compared to 2011, followed by an increase of + 1,60% in February 2012, + 5,24% in March, + 5,98% in April, + 5,87% in May, + 3,29% in June, + 2,19% in July, +2,39% in August, -0,10% in September, + 1,07% in October, +1,82% in Nov and +0,38% in Dec. With 12 months passed in 2012, it is evident that the growth in Local Building Lumber Sales is subdued compared to the buoyant growth in 2011. Local Building Lumber Sales (in m3) recorded growth of + 0,38% for 2012 vs 2011. Lumber Sales by End-use: Local Building: Cum Y/Y 2012 vs 2011 (Dec) (Source: Crickmay & Associates, BMI-BRSCU Workings) 1 200 000 8% % Change Cum Y/Y Local Building: 2012 vs 2011 6% 1 000 000 4% 800 000 Cubic Metres 2% 600 000 0% 400 000 -2% 200 000 -4% - -6% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2011 Cum Y/Y Local Building 83 590 174 204 265 674 345 749 437 896 537 281 628 339 729 731 837 356 933 839 1 036 3 1 109 9 2012 Cum Y/Y Local Building 80 164 176 989 279 604 366 414 463 621 554 962 642 100 747 186 836 497 943 845 1 055 1 1 114 1 % Change Cum Y/Y Local Building: 2012 vs 2011 -4.10% 1.60% 5.24% 5.98% 5.87% 3.29% 2.19% 2.39% -0.10% 1.07% 1.82% 0.38%3
  4. 4. THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: BPP & BC, CEMENT AND LUMBER SALES: 2010, 2011 & 2012 TOTAL BUILDING PLANS PASSED (M2) ENDED 2011 AT – 0,83% COMPARED TO 2010. CUMULATIVE Y/Y building plans passed (BPP) by larger municipalities (in m2) for YTD November 2012 increased by + 0,23% compared with November 2011. • Additions and Alterations BPP decreased (- 0,31%), • Residential BPP increased (+ 0,08%), • Non-Residential BPP increased (+ 1,62%). • Longer term trends in BPP reflect a slow growth scenario The MAT Forecast for Residential BPP (including A&A) (in m2) shows marginal decline of – 0,30%, Non Residential BPP shows growth of + 1,62% and Total BPP shows marginal growth of + 0,29% for 2012 vs 2011. RES BUILDING PLANS PASSED (BPP): SOUTH AFRICA: MAT* 2012 VS 2011 m2 R*1000 Dwelling-house < 80 square metres -184 726 -16.95% 7 105 0.26% Dwelling-house => 80 square metres 146 514 3.90% 2 175 391 11.52% Flats and townhouses 52 722 3.76% 1 278 237 17.89% Other buildings -9 537 -10.22% -13 094 -2.94% Additions and alterations -33 924 -1.07% 779 083 5.16% TOTAL -28 951 -0.30% 4 226 722 9.53% * Nov 2012 NON RES BUILDING PLANS PASSED (BPP): SOUTH AFRICA: MAT* 2012 VS 2011 m2 R*1000 Office and banking 144 988 25.68% 1 152 366 30.68% Shopping 9 233 1.41% 134 716 3.66% Industrial and warehouse 18 116 1.25% 459 054 7.74% Other buildings -125 083 -25.61% -739 930 -28.04% Additions and alterations 21 884 1.99% 731 420 11.68% TOTAL 69 138 1.62% 1 737 626 7.80% TOTAL 40 187 0.29% 5 964 348 8.96% * Nov 20124
  5. 5. THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: BPP & BC, CEMENT AND LUMBER SALES: 2010, 2011 & 2012 RES BUILDINGS COMPLETED (M2) ENDED 2011 AT – 7,50% COMPARED TO 2010. CUMULATIVE Y/Y Total buildings reported as completed (BC) to larger municipalities (in m2) for YTD November 2012 decreased by – 1,23% compared with November 2011. • Non-residential BC increased (+ 15,71%), • Residential BC increased (+ 0,45%) and • Additions and Alterations BC decreased (- 18,03%). After these first 11 months results it is our view that the decline in Private Residential and Non Residential BC has been arrested and will show moderate growth or decline in 2012. The MAT Forecast for Residential BC (including A&A) (in m2) shows marginal decline of - 3,75%.5
  6. 6. THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: BPP & BC, CEMENT AND LUMBER SALES: 2010, 2011 & 2012 NON RES BUILDINGS COMPLETED (M2) ENDED 2011 AT – 7,50% COMPARED TO 2010. CUMULATIVE Y/Y Total buildings reported as completed (BC) to larger municipalities (in m2) for YTD November 2012 decreased by – 1,23% compared with November 2011. • Non-residential BC increased (+ 15,71%), • Residential BC increased (+ 0,45%) and • Additions and Alterations BC decreased (- 18,03%). After these first 11 months results it is our view that the decline in Private Residential and Non Residential BC has been arrested and will show moderate growth or decline in 2012. The MAT Forecast for Non Residential BC (including A&A) (in m2) shows increase of + 5,28% 2012 vs 2011.6
  7. 7. THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: BPP & BC, CEMENT AND LUMBER SALES: 2010, 2011 & 2012 TOTAL BUILDINGS COMPLETED (M2) ENDED 2011 AT – 7,50% COMPARED TO 2010. CUMULATIVE Y/Y Total buildings reported as completed (BC) to larger municipalities (in m2) for YTD November 2012 decreased by – 1,23% compared with November 2011. • Non-residential BC increased (+ 15,71%), • Residential BC increased (+ 0,45%) and • Additions and Alterations BC decreased (- 18,03%). After these first 11 months results it is our view that the decline in Private Residential and Non Residential BC has been arrested and will show moderate growth or decline in 2012. The MAT Forecast for Total BC (including A&A) (in m2) shows decline of – 1,13% for 2012 vs 2011.7
  8. 8. THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: BPP & BC, CEMENT AND LUMBER SALES: 2010, 2011 & 2012 NON RES TOTAL (INCL A&A): BC: CUM ACTUAL 2011 VERSUS MAT FC 2012 BY MONTH: TOTAL RSA (OCT) (Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU Workings) 3 000 000 35% MAT FORECAST CUM ACTUAL 30% % Difference: Cum Actual 2011 vs Forecast 2012 2 500 000 25% 2 000 000 20% Square Metres (m2) 1 500 000 15% 10% 1 000 000 5% 500 000 0% 0 -5% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec NR Total: Cum MAT FC 2012: m2 191 336 431 549 643 784 994 828 1 301 855 1 497 235 1 657 694 1 875 385 2 197 376 2 352 147 2 638 658 2 827 961 NR Total: Cum Actual 2011: m2 146 339 377 453 657 760 893 943 1 123 484 1 400 138 1 607 932 1 762 745 1 957 877 2 214 575 2 501 086 2 690 389 NR Total: Cum MAT FC 2012 vs 2011: % 30.75% 14.33% -2.12% 11.29% 15.88% 6.93% 3.09% 6.39% 12.23% 6.21% 5.50% 5.11% The MAT Forecast for Non Residential BC (including A&A) (in m2) shows increase of + 5,11% 2012 vs 2011.8
  9. 9. THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: BPP & BC, CEMENT AND LUMBER SALES: 2010, 2011 & 2012 TOTAL BUILDINGS COMPLETED (M2) ENDED 2011 AT – 7,50% COMPARED TO 2010. CUMULATIVE Y/Y buildings reported as completed (BC) to larger municipalities (in m2) for YTD October 2012 increased by – 2,02% compared with October 2011. • Non-residential BC increased (+ 14,28%), • Residential BC decreased (- 1,02%) and • Additions and Alterations BC decreased (- 16,90%). After these first 9 months results it is our view that the decline in Private Residential and Non Residential BC has been arrested and will show moderate growth or decline in 2012. The MAT Forecast for Total BC (including A&A) (in m2) shows decline of – 1,68% for 2012 vs 2011.9
  10. 10. THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: BPP & BC, CEMENT AND LUMBER SALES: 2010, 2011 & 2012 RES & NON RES TOTAL (INCL A&A): BC: CUM ACTUAL 2011 VERSUS MAT FC 2012 BY MONTH: (M2) (NOV) (Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU: Buildings Completed Total RSA; Chart BC57) 10 000 000 15% CUM ACTUAL MAT FORECAST 9 000 000 % Difference: Cum Actual 2011 vs Forecast 2012 8 000 000 10% 7 000 000 SQUARE METRES 6 000 000 5% 5 000 000 4 000 000 0% 3 000 000 2 000 000 -5% 1 000 000 0 -10% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Res & NR Total: Cum MAT FC 2012: M2 599 109 1 335 014 2 129 967 2 954 585 3 784 933 4 505 436 5 203 919 6 007 366 6 830 135 7 527 057 8 457 353 9 173 669 Res & NR Total: Cum Actual 2011: M2 525 633 1 282 340 2 239 897 2 953 942 3 707 281 4 602 871 5 372 891 6 033 699 6 849 005 7 681 415 8 562 469 9 278 785 Res & NR Total: % Difference Cum Actual 2011 vs FC 13.98% 4.11% -4.91% 0.02% 2.09% -2.12% -3.14% -0.44% -0.28% -2.01% -1.23% -1.13% 2012: M2 The MAT Forecast for Total BC (including A&A) (in m2) shows decline of – 1,13% for 2012 vs 2011.10
  11. 11. THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: BPP & BC, CEMENT AND LUMBER SALES: 2010, 2011 & 2012 Cumulative YTD Buildings Completed (BC), Domestic Cement Sales and Local Building Lumber Sales: % Change by Sector: January - Dec 2012 (Source: StatsSA; BMI-BRSCU Workings) 40% 30% CUM ACTUAL MAT FORECAST 20% 10% Percentage 0% -10% Publication of Cement Statistics stopped on 3 April 2012 by -20% Competition Commission. Quarterly Statistics, delayed by 3 -30% months will be published in future. -40% Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Total Res BC Cum YTD % Change (m2) 7.51% -0.16% -6.06% -4.87% -3.90% -6.07% -5.81% -3.25% -5.28% -5.34% -4.08% -3.75% Total Non Res BC Cum YTD % Change (m2) 30.75% 14.33% -2.12% 11.29% 15.88% 6.93% 3.09% 6.39% 12.23% 6.21% 5.68% 5.28% Total BC Cum YTD % Change (m2) 13.98% 4.11% -4.91% 0.02% 2.09% -2.12% -3.14% -0.44% -0.28% -2.01% -1.23% -1.13% Domestic Cement Sales (Tonnes) 21.96% 13.74% 6.71% 6.77% 6.81% 6.84% 5.17% 3.91% 2.88% 2.56% 2.28% 2.13% Local Building Lumber Sales (m3) -4.10% 1.60% 5.24% 5.98% 5.87% 3.29% 2.19% 2.39% -0.10% 1.07% 1.82% 0.38% Total Residential BPP (m2) 14.75% 11.39% -6.79% -4.93% -3.39% -5.95% -5.84% -4.03% -3.40% -0.62% -0.33% -0.30% Total Non Residential BPP (m2) -33.37% -13.28% -17.16% -2.20% 0.09% 3.38% 4.33% 4.85% 1.64% -0.99% 1.78% 1.62% Total Building BPP (m2) -3.83% 2.96% -9.87% -4.15% -2.37% -3.25% -2.97% -1.51% -1.91% -0.74% 0.32% 0.29%11
  12. 12. CURRENT REALITY OF THE LUMBER MARKET: 2001 – 2012 (December) Lumber Sales by End-use: January 2001 - Dec 2012 (m3) (Source: Crickmay & Associates, BMI-BRSCU Workings) 200 000 180 000 160 000 140 000 120 000Cubic Metres 100 000 80 000 60 000 40 000 20 000 - Jan 01 May 01 Sep 01 Jan 02 May 02 Sep 02 Jan 03 May 03 Sep 03 Jan 04 May 04 Sep 04 Jan 05 May 05 Sep 05 Jan 06 May 06 Sep 06 Jan 07 May 07 Sep 07 Jan 08 May 08 Sep 08 Jan 09 May 09 Sep 09 Jan 10 May 10 Sep 10 Jan 11 May 11 Sep 11 Jan 12 May 12 Sep 12 Local Building Local Furniture Local Packaging & Other Overseas Export TOTAL 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Local Building) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (TOTAL) 12 © BMI-BRSCU
  13. 13. CURRENT REALITY OF THE LUMBER MARKET: 2001- MAT 2012 (DECEMBER) Lumber Sales by End-use: 2001 - MAT* Dec 2012: Cubic Metres (Source: Crickmay & Associates, BMI-BRSCU Workings) 2 000 000 1 800 000 1 600 000 1 400 000 Cubic Metres 1 200 000 1 000 000 800 000 600 000 400 000 200 000 - 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Overseas Export 115 349 238 159 163 088 104 013 48 387 29 940 15 822 8 439 5 303 5 995 3 885 5 838 Packaging & Other 242 878 278 066 250 003 263 842 310 282 297 990 292 108 226 276 169 006 163 485 202 307 225 647 Re-manufacturing 352 020 501 267 398 789 427 826 433 190 332 829 302 934 255 647 222 954 274 519 208 402 187 096 Local Building 477 837 525 727 813 183 1 013 571 1 149 592 1 122 607 1 128 010 1 108 166 903 458 968 525 1 109 928 1 114 12013 © BMI-BRSCU
  14. 14. CURRENT REALITY OF THE LUMBER MARKET: 201114 © BMI-BRSCU
  15. 15. Cubic Metres15 - 100 000 120 000 20 000 40 000 60 000 80 000 Jan 01 Apr 01 Jul 01 Oct 01 Jan 02 Apr 02 Jul 02 Oct 02 Jan 03 Apr 03 Jul 03 Oct 03 Jan 04 Apr 04 Jul 04 Oct 04 Jan 05 Apr 05 Jul 05 Oct 05 Jan 06 Local Building Apr 06 Jul 06 Oct 06 Jan 07 Apr 07 Jul 07 Oct 07 Jan 08 Apr 08 Jul 08 Oct 08 (Source: Crickmay & Associates, BMI-BRSCU Workings) Jan 09 Apr 09 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Local Building) Jul 09 JANUARY 2001 – 2012 (DECEMBER) Oct 09 Lumber Sales by End-use: Local Building: January 2001 - Dec 2012 (m3) Jan 10 THE LOCAL BUILDING LUMBER MARKET: Apr 10 Jul 10 Oct 10 Jan 11 Apr 11 Jul 11 Oct 11 Jan 12 Apr 12 Jul 12 Oct 12© BMI-BRSCU
  16. 16. THE LOCAL BUILDING MARKET: CUM Y/Y 2011 VS 2010 (Jan - December) Lumber Sales by End-use: Local Building: Cum Y/Y 2011 vs 2010 (Source: Crickmay & Associates, BMI-BRSCU Workings) 1 200 000 40% % Change Cum Y/Y Local Building: 2010 vs 2009 35% 1 000 000 30% 800 000 25% Cubic Metres 600 000 20% 15% 400 000 10% 200 000 5% - 0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2010 Cum Y/Y Local Building 62 111 145 62 226 32 306 35 389 02 464 88 542 71 636 69 712 76 807 35 908 24 968 52 2011 Cum Y/Y Local Building 83 590 174 20 265 67 345 74 437 89 537 28 628 33 729 73 837 35 933 83 1 036 1 109 % Change Cum Y/Y Local Building: 2011 vs 2010- 34.58% 19.62% 17.38% 12.86% 12.56% 15.57% 15.78% 14.61% 17.48% 15.67% 14.10% 14.60%16 © BMI-BRSCU
  17. 17. THE LOCAL BUILDING MARKET: CUM Y/Y 2012 VS 2011 (DECEMBER) Lumber Sales by End-use: Local Building: Cum Y/Y 2012 vs 2011 (Dec) (Source: Crickmay & Associates, BMI-BRSCU Workings) 1 200 000 8% % Change Cum Y/Y Local Building: 2012 vs 2011 6% 1 000 000 4% 800 000 Cubic Metres 2% 600 000 0% 400 000 -2% 200 000 -4% - -6% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2011 Cum Y/Y Local Building 83 590 174 204 265 674 345 749 437 896 537 281 628 339 729 731 837 356 933 839 1 036 3 1 109 9 2012 Cum Y/Y Local Building 80 164 176 989 279 604 366 414 463 621 554 962 642 100 747 186 836 497 943 845 1 055 1 1 114 1 % Change Cum Y/Y Local Building: 2012 vs 2011 -4.10% 1.60% 5.24% 5.98% 5.87% 3.29% 2.19% 2.39% -0.10% 1.07% 1.82% 0.38%17 © BMI-BRSCU
  18. 18. THE LOCAL FURNITURE MARKET JANUARY 2001 – 2012 (DECEMBER) Lumber Sales by End-use: Local Furniture: January 2001 - Dec 2012 (m3) (Source: Crickmay & Associates, BMI-BRSCU Workings) 60 000 50 000 40 000Cubic Metres 30 000 20 000 10 000 - Jan 01 May 01 Sep 01 Jan 02 May 02 Sep 02 Jan 03 May 03 Sep 03 Jan 04 May 04 Sep 04 Jan 05 May 05 Sep 05 Jan 06 May 06 Sep 06 Jan 07 May 07 Sep 07 Jan 08 May 08 Sep 08 Jan 09 May 09 Sep 09 Jan 10 May 10 Sep 10 Jan 11 May 11 Sep 11 Jan 12 May 12 Sep 12 Local Furniture 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Local Furniture)18 © BMI-BRSCU
  19. 19. THE LOCAL FURNITURE MARKET: CUM Y/Y 2011 vs 2010 (Jan- December) Lumber Sales by End-use: Local Furniture: Cum Y/Y 2011 vs 2010 (Source: Crickmay & Associates, BMI-BRSCU Workings) 300 000 10% % Change Cum Y/Y Local Furniture: 2011 vs 2010 5% 250 000 0% 200 000 -5% Cubic Metres 150 000 -10% -15% 100 000 -20% 50 000 -25% - -30% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2010 Cum Y/Y Local Furniture 19 154 46 610 76 639 99 561 122 215 142 138 173 714 196 548 215 853 236 106 259 558 274 519 2011 Cum Y/Y Local Furniture 20 061 42 300 60 613 75 760 92 097 110 302 125 289 142 265 161 214 178 319 197 576 208 402 % Change Cum Y/Y: Local Furniture: 2011 vs 2010 4.74% -9.25% -20.91%-23.91%-24.64%-22.40%-27.88%-27.62%-25.31%-24.48%-23.88%-24.08%19 © BMI-BRSCU
  20. 20. THE LOCAL FURNITURE LUMBER MARKET: 2001 – 2012 (DECEMBER) Lumber Sales by End-use: Local Furniture: Cum Y/Y 2012 vs 2011 (Dec) (Source: Crickmay & Associates, BMI-BRSCU Workings: Lumber Sales by End-use; Chart 10(8)) 250 000 0% % Change Cum Y/Y Local Furniture: 2012 vs 2011 -5% 200 000 -10% Cubic Metres -15% 150 000 -20% 100 000 -25% -30% 50 000 -35% - -40% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2011 Cum Y/Y Local Furniture 20 061 42 300 60 613 75 760 92 097 110 30 125 28 142 26 161 21 178 31 197 57 208 40 2012 Cum Y/Y Local Furniture 13 146 30 173 47 267 62 748 80 509 98 675 114 42 132 60 145 37 163 10 180 07 187 09 % Change Cum Y/Y: Local Furniture: 2012 vs 2011 -34.47% -28.67% -22.02% -17.18% -12.58% -10.54% -8.68% -6.79% -9.82% -8.53% -8.86% -10.22%20 © BMI-BRSCU
  21. 21. THE LOCAL PACKAGING MARKET: 2001 – 2012 (DECEMBER) Lumber Sales by End-use: Local Packaging & Other: January 2001 - Dec 2012 (m3) (Source: Crickmay & Associates, BMI-BRSCU Workings) 40 000 35 000 30 000 25 000Cubic Metres 20 000 15 000 10 000 5 000 - Jan 01 May 01 Sep 01 Jan 02 May 02 Sep 02 Jan 03 May 03 Sep 03 Jan 04 May 04 Sep 04 Jan 05 May 05 Sep 05 Jan 06 May 06 Sep 06 Jan 07 May 07 Sep 07 Jan 08 May 08 Sep 08 Jan 09 May 09 Sep 09 Jan 10 May 10 Sep 10 Jan 11 May 11 Sep 11 Jan 12 May 12 Sep 12 Local Packaging & Other 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Local Packaging & Other)21 © BMI-BRSCU
  22. 22. THE LOCAL PACKAGING MARKET: Y/Y 2011 VS 2010 (DECEMBER) Lumber Sales by End-use: Local Packaging & Other: Cum Y/Y 2010 vs 2009 (Source: Crickmay & Associates, BMI-BRSCU Workings) 180 000 50% % Change Cum Y/Y Local Packaging & Other: 2010 vs 2009 160 000 40% 140 000 120 000 30% Cubic Metres 100 000 20% 80 000 60 000 10% 40 000 0% 20 000 - -10% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2009 Cum Y/Y Local Packaging & Other 8 684 23 926 37 438 49 778 65 384 80 604 96 092 109 650 126 348 144 142 161 618 169 006 2010 Cum Y/Y Local Packaging & Other 12 524 28 619 45 364 59 737 72 860 84 862 98 885 112 202 122 943 139 629 154 994 163 485 % Change Cum Y/Y: Local Packaging & Other: 44.22% 19.61% 21.17% 20.01% 11.43% 5.28% 2.91% 2.33% -2.69% -3.13% -4.10% -3.27% 2010 vs 200922 © BMI-BRSCU
  23. 23. THE LOCAL PACKAGING MARKET: Y/Y 2012 VS 2011 (DECEMBER) Lumber Sales by End-use: Local Packaging & Other: Cum Y/Y 2012 vs 2011 (Dec) (Source: Crickmay & Associates, BMI-BRSCU Workings) 250 000 35% % Change Cum Y/Y Local Packaging & Other: 2012 vs 2011 30% 200 000 25% Cubic Metres 150 000 20% 100 000 15% 50 000 10% - 5% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2011 Cum Y/Y Local Packaging & Other 13 806 29 404 45 932 60 124 75 874 91 981 107 959 126 265 146 991 167 945 189 739 202 307 2012 Cum Y/Y Local Packaging & Other 15 927 38 415 58 313 76 264 96 044 114 444 131 294 152 295 171 601 191 726 214 026 225 647 % Change Cum Y/Y: Local Packaging & Other: 2012 vs 15.36% 30.65% 26.96% 26.84% 26.58% 24.42% 21.61% 20.62% 16.74% 14.16% 12.80% 11.54% 201123 © BMI-BRSCU
  24. 24. THE OVERSEAS EXPORT MARKET: 2001 – 2012 (DECEMBER) Lumber Sales by End-use: Overseas Export: January 2001 - Dec 2012 (m3) (Source: Crickmay & Associates, BMI-BRSCU Workings) 30 000 25 000 20 000Cubic Metres 15 000 10 000 5 000 - Jan 01 May 01 Sep 01 Jan 02 May 02 Sep 02 Jan 03 May 03 Sep 03 Jan 04 May 04 Sep 04 Jan 05 May 05 Sep 05 Jan 06 May 06 Sep 06 Jan 07 May 07 Sep 07 Jan 08 May 08 Sep 08 Jan 09 May 09 Sep 09 Jan 10 May 10 Sep 10 Jan 11 May 11 Sep 11 Jan 12 May 12 Sep 12 Overseas Export 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Overseas Export)24 © BMI-BRSCU
  25. 25. THE OVERSEAS EXPORT MARKET: CUM Y/Y 2011 VS 2010 (January - December) Lumber Sales by End-use: Overseas Export: Cum Y/Y 2011 vs 2010 (Source: Crickmay & Associates, BMI-BRSCU Workings) 7 000 -25% % Change Cum Y/Y Overseas Export: 2011 vs 2010 6 000 -35% 5 000 -45% Cubic Metres 4 000 -55% 3 000 -65% 2 000 -75% 1 000 -85% - -95% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2010 Cum Y/Y Overseas Export 1 234 1 619 2 633 2 952 3 070 3 513 3 911 4 585 4 879 5 160 5 885 5 995 2011 Cum Y/Y Overseas Export 81 500 610 1 097 1 491 1 817 2 571 3 037 3 352 3 721 3 885 3 885 % Change Cum Y/Y: Overseas Export: 2011 vs 2010 -93.44% -69.12% -76.83% -62.84% -51.43% -48.28% -34.26% -33.76% -31.30% -27.89% -33.98% -35.20%25 © BMI-BRSCU
  26. 26. THE OVERSEAS EXPORT MARKET: 2001 – 2012 (DECEMBER) Lumber Sales by End-use: Overseas Export: Cum Y/Y 2012 vs 2011 (Dec) (Source: Crickmay & Associates, BMI-BRSCU Workings) 7 000 60% % Change Cum Y/Y Overseas Export: 2012 vs 2011 40% 6 000 20% 5 000 Cubic Metres 0% 4 000 -20% 3 000 -40% 2 000 -60% 1 000 -80% - -100% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2011 Cum Y/Y Overseas Export 81 500 610 1 097 1 491 1 817 2 571 3 037 3 352 3 721 3 885 3 885 2012 Cum Y/Y Overseas Export 86 126 312 576 1 024 1 556 1 952 2 945 3 646 4 715 5 248 5 838 % Change Cum Y/Y: Overseas Export: 2012 vs 2011 6.17% -74.80% -48.85% -47.49% -31.32% -14.36% -24.08% -3.03% 8.77% 26.71% 35.08% 50.27%26 © BMI-BRSCU
  27. 27. THE TOTAL LUMBER MARKET: 2001 – 2012 (DECEMBER) Lumber Sales by End-use: Total: January 2001 - Dec 2012 (m3) (Source: Crickmay & Associates, BMI-BRSCU Workings) 200 000 180 000 160 000Cubic Metres 140 000 120 000 100 000 80 000 60 000 Jan 01 May 01 Sep 01 Jan 02 May 02 Sep 02 Jan 03 May 03 Sep 03 Jan 04 May 04 Sep 04 Jan 05 May 05 Sep 05 Jan 06 May 06 Sep 06 Jan 07 May 07 Sep 07 Jan 08 May 08 Sep 08 Jan 09 May 09 Sep 09 Jan 10 May 10 Sep 10 Jan 11 May 11 Sep 11 Jan 12 May 12 Sep 12 TOTAL 12 per. Mov. Avg. (TOTAL)27 © BMI-BRSCU
  28. 28. THE TOTAL LUMBER MARKET: CUM Y/Y 2011 VS 2010 (January - December) Lumber Sales by End-use: Total: Cum Y/Y 2011 vs 2010 (Source: Crickmay & Associates, BMI-BRSCU Workings) 1 600 000 25% 1 400 000 20% % Change Cum Y/Y Total: 2011 vs 2010 1 200 000 1 000 000 Cubic Metres 15% 800 000 10% 600 000 400 000 5% 200 000 - 0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2010 Cum Y/Y Total 95 023 222 47 350 96 468 60 587 17 695 40 819 22 950 03 1 056 1 188 1 328 1 412 2011 Cum Y/Y Total 117 53 246 40 372 82 482 73 607 35 741 38 864 15 1 001 1 148 1 283 1 427 1 524 % Change Cum Y/Y: Total: 2010 vs 2009 17.94% 12.00% 16.41% 19.36% 17.22% 14.41% 11.62% 12.29% 10.01% 8.74% 7.68% 8.60%28 © BMI-BRSCU

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