Paradigm Shift in Information Management
We regularly conduct the holistic analysis of The State of the Building Industry, as well as Lumber
Sales YTD 2012.
All the information and Xcell spread-sheets are also posted on our web-site for access by our
At our BMI Strategic Forum we have always ascribed to a paradigm of sharing all information with
our subscribers on the premise that knowledge must be freely shared and empowering. Accordingly
we developed an improved information management system to facilitate the process.
We have organised all the Building, Construction and Property (BCP) information together in 5
Dashboards in one interconnected model thus providing a complete BCP system overview at a
1. BPP by Province Dashboard;
2. BC by Province Dashboard;
3. Building Industry Dashboard;
4. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) Dashboard;
5. Mortgage Advances Dashboard;
6. Building Materials Dashboard
Navigation between Dashboards and to the individual Excel spread-sheets in each Dashboard is at
the click of a button. Each S/S is accompanied by all the Charts necessary to get a complete view.
Although the sheets are locked for proprietary reasons, the Charts are accessible and can be copied
These Dashboards are updated as information changes and posted on the website for downloading
(BMI Alerts). Advice of postings are on the default page of our website where a quick-link is provided
which takes subscribers directly to the web-site page, at which point a subscriber user name and
password is required for access.
BMI-BRSCU SENSEMAKING UPDATE APRIL 2013
In this Sensemaking Update for the YTD February 2013 as well as the Industry Dashboard we have
analysed all the information regarding 2012 for GFCF as well as the first two months of 2013 for the
other series (with 3 months for Lumber sales). It therefore provides a good basis for understanding
the past year as well as an indication of what can be expected in this year. We of course monitor the
actual performance against forecast and our interactive models provide the means of continuous
updating of the outlook thus providing a very useful strategic monitoring system.
The Industry Dashboard takes a holistic systemic view and it can be seen that the MAT Forecast for
MORTGAGE ADVANCES for the Construction of New Buildings shows an increase on 2012 (but –
33,67% of the 2007 level); GFCF Residential, Non Residential and Total Building shows healthy
growth and Construction is expected to decline. This of course has an impact on building material
sales. The majority of other indicators indicate a turning point and the MAT Forecasts display a
generally flat pattern for 2013 vs 2012.
• Mortgage Advances on EXISTING BUILDINGS, CONSTRUCTION OF NEW BUILDINGS, VACANT
LAND and TOTAL GROSS NEW MORTGAGE LOANS AND RE-ADVANCES shows an average
INCREASE of + 4,36%
• GFCF RESIDENTIAL shows an INCREASE of + 4,89%
• GFCF NON RESIDENTIAL shows an INCREASE of + 1,97%
• GFCF TOTAL BUILDING shows an INCREASE of + 3,14%
• Domestic Cement Sales shows a decrease of - 2,75% and
• Local Building Lumber Sales shows an increase of – 1,56%.
Residential BPP (in m2) recorded a decline of – 0,07% in 2012 vs 2011 and Non Residential BPP
showed growth of + 1,51%. Total BPP (in m2) ended 2012 with marginal growth of + 0,42%
compared to 2011.
At this early stage of 2013 it is expected that the
• Private Residential BPP (in m2) will increase by + 5,22% in 2013 vs 2012 while the
• Private Non Residential BPP will increase by + 8,47% and
• Total Private BPP will increase by + 6,24%.
Residential BC (in m2) recorded a decline of -3,99% in 2012 vs 2011 and Non Residential BC showed
growth of +5,59%. Total BC (in m2) ended 2012 with marginal decline of -1,21% vs 2011.
Similarly it is expected that the
• Private Residential BC (in m2) will increase by + 6,69% in 2013 vs 2012 while the
• Private Non Residential BC will increase by + 3,42% and
• Total Private BC will increase by + 5,68%.
It is important to remember in the Investment in Building Table that Private Sector (Residential and
Non Residential) BC comprises just more than 30% of Total Investment in Building (the rest
comprises Public Residential, Non Residential and Unrecorded Additions and Alterations).
Nevertheless it is the MOST IMPORTANT, CURRENT INFORMATION AVAILABLE on the development
of the Industry and this is the reason why we spend a considerable amount of time to analyse it
Building Investment relates to both Private and Public Building and it is expected that Public Sector
Residential and Non Residential will contribute to an overall increase of about + 2,18% in Total
Investment in Building for 2013 compared to 2012 (in constant 2012 Rand Value).
In the report we also provide a detailed forecast of the Investment in Building and Construction for
the period 2013 – 2020 (in constant 2012 Rand values). It can be seen that Total Investment in
Building is expected to average almost R183 Billion annually, whilst Investment in Construction is
expected to average nearly R160 Billion per annum – thus a total investment in Building and
Construction of about R346 Billion annually. This would translate into an Investment in Total Building
and Construction of about R1,037 Trillion over the next 3 years, thus this top-down estimate of
forecast investment provides some support for the much vaunted Infrastructure programme of
ALL REPORTS, POWERPOINT PRESENTATIONS AND XCELL SPREADSHEETS ARE POSTED ON OUR
WEBSITE. IN OUR ONGOING SURVEILANCE WE ALSO MONITOR SOME 13 ENVIRONMENTS RELEVANT
TO THE CONTEXT OF THE BUILDING, CONSTRUCTION AND PROPERTY INDUSTRIES WITHIN A
SCENARIO CONTEXT AND POST RELEVANT NEWS DAILY ON THE VARIOUS SCENARIO SITES. IN THIS
WAY WE IDENTIFY EARLY SIGNALS OF CHANGE AND VERIFY THEM WHEN THEY MANIFEST IN THE
PUBLISHED DATA. THIS IS A HOLISTIC INFORMATION MANAGEMENT PROCESS. IF YOU WOULD LIKE
TO KNOW MORE ABOUT OUR STRATEGIC FORUM AND HOW TO SUBSCRIBE PLEASE CONTACT THE
BMI -Building Research Strategy Consulting Unit assists organizations in developing the
COMPETITIVE INDUSTRY FORESIGHT required to influence the direction and shape of industry
evolution, and STRATEGIC LEADERSHIP as a way of business life.
We achieve this through EXCELLENCE in our CORE COMPETENCIES of:
• scenario learning
• strategic and scenario research
• strategy regeneration
• leadership reinvention
• organizational reinvention
The Strategic Forum (established 1990) is a place of assembly for strategic conversations.
Subscribers meet twice per year to discuss the State of the Economy; the State of the Building-,
Construction-, and Property Environments, the State of the Nation and to make sense of the Future.
Many ad-hoc market research studies are conducted into new product positioning, feasibility
studies, mergers, acquisitions and diversification strategies
BMI-BRSCU Maintain a comprehensive data-bank on the Market for Major Building Product Groups.
• You can join our Strategic Forum
• We can conduct ad-hoc research for you according to your requirements
• We can facilitate Strategy Regeneration Workshops for your company
• Our leadership and organisational reinvention programmes are regularly offered in multi
company workshops or customised for in-company programmes
• Our consultants are available to address in-company seminars or customer events
Dr. Llewellyn B Lewis,
Principal Consultant, email@example.com; www.strategicforum.co.za