FICCI-IIFA Global Business Forum Presentation (April 24, 2014)

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The presentation given by Dr. R.K. Pachauri at the FICCI-IIFA Global Business Forum 2014: "Indo-U.S. Partnership: A Catalyst for Economic Growth". This was a side event to the International Indian Film Academy (IIFA) Awards celebration held in Tampa, Florida in April, 2014.

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  • Figure SPM.8. Final energy demand reduction relative to baseline (upper row) and low-carbon energy3 carrier shares in final energy (lower row) in the transport, buildings, and industry sectors by 2030 and4 2050 in scenarios from two different CO2eq concentration categories compared to sectoral studies5 assessed in Chapters 8-10. The demand reductions shown by these scenarios do not compromise6 development. Low-carbon energy carriers include electricity, hydrogen and liquid biofuels in transport,7 electricity in buildings and electricity, heat, hydrogen and bioenergy in industry. The numbers at the8 bottom of the graphs refer to the number of scenarios included in the ranges which differ across9 sectors and time due to different sectoral resolution and time horizon of models.
  • FICCI-IIFA Global Business Forum Presentation (April 24, 2014)

    1. 1. Chairman, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change FICCI-IIFA Global Business Forum 2014 Tampa, Florida R. K. Pachauri 24 April 2014
    2. 2. “Problems cannot be solved at the same level of awareness that created them.” - Albert Einstein
    3. 3. 3 Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis Human influence of the climate system is clear • 95% certainty that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century • Since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. • Limiting climate change will require sustained and substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions Source : IPCC AR5
    4. 4. 4 Warming of the climate system is unequivocal Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface than any preceding decade since 1850. Source : IPCC AR5
    5. 5. 5 Warming of the climate system is unequivocal Source : IPCC AR5 • The oceans have warmed and risen • The amounts of snow and ice have diminished • Sea level has risen • The concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased
    6. 6. 6 The oceans have warmed and risen Warming of the climate system is unequivocal • Ocean warming dominates the increase in energy stored in the climate system: more than 90% of energy accumulated between 1971 and 2010. • The rate of sea level rise since the mid-19th century has been larger than the mean rate during the previous two millennia. • From 1901-2010, global mean sea level rose by 19 cm. Source : IPCC AR5
    7. 7. 7 The concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased Warming of the climate system is unequivocal • The atmospheric concentrations of CO2, methane, and nitrous oxide have increased to levels unprecedented in at least the past 800,000 years. • The ocean has absorbed ~30% of the emitted anthropogenic carbon dioxide, causing ocean acidification. • CO2 emissions from fossil fuels combustion and industrial processes contributed about 78% of the total GHG emissions increase from 1970 to 2010 Source : IPCC AR5
    8. 8. 8 Total anthropogenic GHG emissions were the highest in human history from 2000 to 2010 Trends in GHGs and their drivers Source : IPCC AR5 Greenhouse gas emissions by economic sectors • Accounting for indirect emissions raises the contributions of the industry sector to 31% • Globally, economic and population growth continue to be the most important drivers of increases in CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustions • These are expected to continue to drive emissions growth without additional efforts to reduce GHG emissions.
    9. 9. 9 Industry Trends in GHGs and their drivers Source : IPCC AR5 • In 2010, the industry sector accounted for around 28% of final energy use. • Emissions are projected to increase by 50–150% by 2050 in baseline scenarios, unless energy efficiency improvements are accelerated significantly. • Emissions from industry are currently greater than emissions from either the buildings or transport end‐use sectors.
    10. 10. 10 Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and changes in the climate system Future changes in the climate system Source : IPCC AR5 • Oceans will continue to warm during the 21st century. • It is very likely that the Arctic sea ice cover will continue to shrink and thin as global mean surface temperature rises. • Global glacier volume will further decrease. • Global mean sea level will continue to rise during the 21st century
    11. 11. Extreme events during and by the end of the 21st Century Source : IPCC SREX • It is very likely that the length, frequency, and/or intensity of warm spells or heat waves will increase over most land areas • Under some scenarios, a 1-in-20 year hottest day is likely to become a 1-in-2 year event in most regions • It is likely that the frequency of heavy precipitation or the proportion of total rainfall from heavy falls will increase over many areas of the globe
    12. 12. 12 Future risks of climate change Projected risks for natural systems over the century Source : IPCC AR5 Fresh water resources • Significant reduction of renewable surface water and groundwater resources in most dry subtropical regions • Climate change is projected to pose risks to raw and drinking water quality Terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems • Increased extinction risk under all warming scenarios (RCPs) • Increased tree mortality, forest dieback with risks for carbon storage, biodiversity, wood production and economic activity • Submergence and coastal flooding/erosion due to sea-level rise Marine systems • Redistribution and reduction of global marine-species and biodiversity with challenges for fisheries • Expansion of “dead zones” with constraints for fish habitat • Polar ecosystems and coral reefs at substantial risk due to ocean acidification (RCP 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5)
    13. 13. 13 Future risks of climate change Projected risks for human systems over the century Source : IPCC AR5 Food security and production systems • All aspects of food security are potentially affected (access, utilization and price stability) • Negative impacts for wheat, rice and maize production in some regions for local temperature increases of 2C Livelihoods and poverty • Slowing down of economic growth • Poverty reduction made more difficult • New poverty traps created especially in urban areas and hotspots of hunger Human health • Increases in ill-health in many regions especially in developing countries • Under- nutrition from reduced food production in poor regions • Increased risks from food and water borne diseases
    14. 14. 14 Adaptation and Mitigation “Climate-resilient pathways combine adaptation and mitigation to reduce climate change and its impacts. Since mitigation reduces the rate and magnitude of warming, it also increases the time available for adaptation to a particular level of climate change, potentially by several decades.” IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Source : IPCC AR5
    15. 15. 15 Stringent mitigation scenarios Characteristics of scenarios reaching levels of about 450 ppm CO2eq by 2100 (likely chance to keep temperature change below 2C relative to preindustrial levels): • Lower global GHGs in 2050 than in 2010 (40% to 70% lower globally) • Emissions levels near zero GtCO2eq or below in 2100 • More rapid improvements in energy efficiency • A tripling to nearly a quadrupling of the share of zero- and low- carbon energy supply from renewables by 2050 • Nuclear energy, biomass and fossil energy with CCS, and BECCS by the year 2050 Source : IPCC AR5
    16. 16. 16 CDR technologies Source : IPCC AR5 Many scenarios reaching 450, 500 and 550 ppm CO2eq by 2100 Require availability and widespread deployment of BECCS and afforestation post 2050 • But the availability and scale of these and other CDR technologies are uncertain and associated with challenges and risks.
    17. 17. 17 Mitigation options for industry Reduction of the energy intensity of the industry sector Source : IPCC AR5 Reduction of the energy intensity of the industry sector could be reduced through: • Wide‐scale upgrading, replacement and deployment of best available technologies, particularly in countries where these are not in use and in non‐energy intensive industries • Innovation • Information programmes for promoting energy efficiency • Economic instruments • Regulatory approaches and voluntary actions
    18. 18. 18 Mitigation options for industry Reductions in GHG emissions below baseline levels in the industry sector Source : IPCC AR5 • Improvements in GHG emissions efficiency and in the efficiency of material use • Recycling and re-use of materials and products • Service demand • Important options in waste management and reduction Many emissions-reducing options are: • Cost-effective • Profitable • Associated with co-benefits (environmental compliance, health benefits)
    19. 19. 19 Mitigation options for industry Collaborative approaches across companies and sectors to reduce energy and material use Source : IPCC AR5 Improved process performance and cost-effective plant- efficiency in large energy intensive industries and SMEs can be achieved through: • Application of cross-cutting technologies (e.g. efficient motors) • Application of cross-cutting measures (e.g. reducing air or steam leaks) • Cooperation across companies and sectors: sharing of infrastructure, information, and waste heat utilization.
    20. 20. 20 Industry Figure SPM.8. | Final energy demand reduction relative to baseline (left) and low-carbon energy carrier shares in final energy (right) in the industry sector by 2030 and 2050
    21. 21. 21 Impacts of mitigation on GDP growth Delaying additional mitigation further increases mitigation costs in the medium to long term 2030 TimeCurrent GDP GDP without mitigation GDP with stringent mitigation (reaching ≈ 450 ppm CO2eq in 2100) Loss in global consumption in 2030: 1.7% (median) Source : IPCC AR5 Loss in global consumption in 2050: 3.4% (median) Loss in global consumption in 2100: 4.8% (median) 2050 2100
    22. 22. 22 Co-benefits and adverse side effects There is an increased focus on policies designed to integrate multiple objectives, increase co-benefits and reduce adverse side-effects. The intersections of mitigation and adaptation with other societal goals, if well managed, can strengthen the basis for undertaking climate action: • Improved energy efficiency and security • Cleaner energy sources • Air quality and human health • Reduced energy and water consumption in urban areas • Sustainable agriculture and forestry • Protection of ecosystems for carbon storage Source : IPCC AR5
    23. 23. “A technological society has two choices. First it can wait until catastrophic failures expose systemic deficiencies, distortion and self-deceptions… Secondly, a culture can provide social checks and balances to correct for systemic distortion prior to catastrophic failures.” - Mahatma Gandhi “Speed is irrelevant if you are going in the wrong direction” - Mahatma Gandhi

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