The Demographic Tranistion Model


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The Demographic Tranistion Model

  1. 1. The Demographic Transition Model
  2. 2. Learning Objectives <ul><li>Know what the DTM is; </li></ul><ul><li>Be able to describe the stages of the DTM and consider a possible 5 th stage; </li></ul><ul><li>Understand the DTM in relation to the MEDW and LEDW; </li></ul><ul><li>Evaluate the usefulness of the DTM. </li></ul>
  3. 3. The Demographic Transition Model
  4. 4. Stage 1 – High fluctuating phase <ul><li>BR and DR are high – often 30-40 per 1000 </li></ul><ul><li>Fluctuating due to impacts of wars, droughts, famine and disease </li></ul><ul><li>Overall, population is relatively stable </li></ul><ul><li>UK: Pre 1760 </li></ul><ul><li>Refers to pre-industrial societies </li></ul><ul><li>No countries fit this stage now, although it can be linked with some communities e.g. indigenous rainforest populations </li></ul>
  5. 5. Stage 2 – Early expanding phase <ul><li>BR remains high </li></ul><ul><li>DR starts to fall </li></ul><ul><li>Therefore this is a period of high rates of natural increase and hence population growth </li></ul><ul><li>UK: 1760-1880, although in the UK (and other MEDCs) the BR and DR were much closer together so there was never the huge population growth experiences in many LEDCs </li></ul>
  6. 6. Stage 2 – Early expanding <ul><li>Sierra Leone is an example </li></ul><ul><li>BR of 47 per 1000 </li></ul><ul><li>DR 18 per 1000 </li></ul><ul><li>But, unlike the MEDW where population change was a product of economic development, for the LEDW it is often experienced in largely agricultural countries – causing a ‘poverty trap’. </li></ul>
  7. 7. Stage 3 – late expanding <ul><li>Population growth begins to slow down </li></ul><ul><li>DR continues to fall </li></ul><ul><li>BR also beings to fall </li></ul><ul><li>Towards the end of stage 3, BR and DR start to converge </li></ul><ul><li>UK: 1880-1940 </li></ul><ul><li>China, Brazil, Tunisia are at this stage </li></ul>
  8. 8. Stage 3 – late expanding <ul><li>Tunisia – part way through this stage </li></ul><ul><li>BR of 22 per 1000 </li></ul><ul><li>DR of 7 per 1000 </li></ul><ul><li>Still much less industrialised than the UK was at this stage in the model </li></ul>
  9. 9. Stage 4 – low fluctuating <ul><li>Low BR and DR therefore low natural increase and population growth </li></ul><ul><li>DR largely stable </li></ul><ul><li>BR slightly more fluctuating due to ‘baby booms’ – often linked to times of economic prosperity </li></ul><ul><li>Many countries of the MEDW have now reached stage 4 e.g. Canada, USA, Japan </li></ul><ul><li>UK: post 1940 </li></ul>
  10. 10. Stage 5 - decline <ul><li>The original model had only 4 stages, but there has recently become a need to consider a ‘5 th stage’ as countries such as Sweden, Germany and Italy have found themselves with a population below the replacement level – this means there is a natural decrease in population as BRs have fallen below DRs. </li></ul><ul><li>UK: Post 2000? </li></ul>
  11. 13. Which stage? <ul><li>Bangladesh </li></ul><ul><li>Brazil </li></ul><ul><li>Canada </li></ul><ul><li>China </li></ul><ul><li>Denmark </li></ul><ul><li>France </li></ul><ul><li>Germany </li></ul><ul><li>Greece </li></ul><ul><li>Italy </li></ul><ul><li>Mali </li></ul><ul><li>Niger </li></ul><ul><li>Philippines </li></ul><ul><li>Switzerland </li></ul><ul><li>UK </li></ul>Country Birth Rate Death Rate Stage of DTM Justification
  12. 14. MEDW vs LEDW <ul><li>MEDW </li></ul><ul><li>Most passed through all stages </li></ul><ul><li>Stage 4 – around 1960s </li></ul><ul><li>Some into Stage 5 </li></ul><ul><li>Took about 200 years </li></ul><ul><li>Growth rates c. 1% / yr </li></ul><ul><li>Led by economic growth </li></ul><ul><li>LEDW </li></ul><ul><li>Many entered stage 2 mid C20th </li></ul><ul><li>Many still in Stage 2/3 </li></ul><ul><li>High population growth </li></ul><ul><li>Pop growth between 2 and 4% </li></ul><ul><li>More rapid </li></ul><ul><li>Driven by governments and western medical aid </li></ul>
  13. 15. The usefulness of the DTM <ul><li>It is universal in concept – it can be applied to all countries </li></ul><ul><li>It provides a starting point for the study of demographic change </li></ul><ul><li>The timescales are flexible </li></ul><ul><li>It is easy to understand </li></ul><ul><li>It allows comparisons to be made between countries </li></ul><ul><li>Allows some predictions to be made </li></ul>
  14. 16. The usefulness of the DTM <ul><li>The original model did not include a 5 th stage </li></ul><ul><li>It is eurocentric – assumes that all countries will follow the European sequences of change </li></ul><ul><li>Does not allow for the role of governments or the impact of migration </li></ul><ul><li>Not all countries (or regions) will pass through all of the stages or at the same rates </li></ul><ul><li>No account of base population e.g. China where low rates of natural increase -> large population growth </li></ul>
  15. 17. Thailand