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Global Warming Is “Unequivocal” R H Gammon   University of Washington Bainbridge Graduate Institute 4/22/10
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How can public understanding and support be fading even as the climate change science grows ever more certain? The Problem:
Remember: Earth is alive   (NASA/satellite composite)
Some known tipping points in the Earth System. Arctic ice tipping point already  passed?
Recent updates (2009) on climate change science have only strengthened IPCC ‘07 conclusions and urgency of response
 
 
Public understanding of the climate threat is eroding Gallup
Gallup Poll 3/10 A growing partisan divide
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Extreme weather  events  are  increasing,  just as climate models had predicted  (IPCC ‘07)
East coast snowstorms (Jan-Feb, 2010) don’t disprove global climate change predictions,  but rather confirm them.
e Combining key climate change indices
Note the steady rise toward a less stable climate
NASA/GISS Note: 2005 warmest, (2009,2007,1998) tied for 2nd warmest
2008 was colder in the USA (~1.5% global area), but…
  … the world was still warming in 2008 Global temperature anomaly 2008  (NASA/GISS)
The most recent decade has been the warmest on record
The warming trend continues (2000-2010)  ----> Decadal average global surface temperature *
 
Professor Mann’s hockey stick has been confirmed by many other studies
A new (independent) ‘hockey stick’: Arctic temperature trends for the past 2000 years (Kaufman et al, Science, Sept ‘09)
Past and possible future global temperatures (IPCC ‘07)
Projected precipitation changes by 2100  (IPCC ‘07): Subtropical droughts, but high-latitude precipitation (rain) JJA
Sun:  small, regular (11-yr cycle) modulation of global temperature
Major factors:  (natural)  solar variability, volcanoes, ENSO   (human)  greenhouse gases
Combining all factors, fitting the record and ‘predicting’ to 2030 (Lean et al , GRL 2009)
Quiet sun (2009) Next solar max (modest) predicted for 2013, record warming coming?
Nov ‘09 Nov ‘08 La Nina cooled ‘08/’09 El Nino warms ‘09/’10
Measured increase in greenhouse heat stored in the upper ocean Most excess heat goes into  the ocean, not  the land or the atmosphere
Increasing atmospheric CO 2  at Mauna Loa (Hawaii) Combustion of coal, oil, natural gas, tropical forests ~390 ppm in 2010
Rapid increase in greenhouse gas concentrations since 1900, relative to the previous 10,000 yrs (IPCC ‘07)
Other greenhouse gases contribute ~30% additional warming
Worrisome recent increase in atmospheric methane ?
Measured recent release of CH 4 from Russian boreal peat bogs and continental shelf…  (+) climate feedback?
Arctic  sea-ice extent Sept ‘09 The NW passage is now open for business.
Multi-year sea ice rapidly disappearing
Arctic sea-ice extent declining rapidly
Observed rate of ice loss faster than any model prediction
Rapid and increasing loss of Greenland ice
Antarctica is also warming and losing ice, especially West Antarctica
Observed sea-level rising faster than model predictions
Possible sea-level rise by 2100 of 3 to 6 feet
Sea-level predicted to rise by 10 feet or more by 2300
Loss of coastal US land for sea-level rise of 20 feet.
New Orleans now Possible by 2050 (Rising sea-level, eroding delta)
A 5-ft sea-level rise would remake San Francisco Bay, inundating Both SFO and Oakland airports
A high estimate (4 ft) for Puget Sound by 2100
Impact of  sea-level rise in Puget Sound
“Copenhagen Accord” reached in the final hours of COP-15  (Jan 2010)
Global use of fossil fuels is exceeding all earlier predictions
China has passed the USA in country emissions, but not in  per capita  emissions
China leads the world in production of solar, and wind.
Estimated global CO 2  emission reduction pathways needed to have 67% probability of holding global warming below 2  o C   (WBGU, 2009)
Has the US turned the corner on CO2 emissions? ? Emission map
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Where we have to go. Will we do this at all? Will we do this in time?
Possible corporate responses to the  challenge and opportunity of climate change
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What You Can Do   *  Learn about climate change, convince others of the challenge * Urge your leaders to pass strong climate mitigation laws * Support clean, renewable energy * Replace incandescent light-bulbs with cfls * Save energy and water at home * Buy energy-efficient appliances  * Plant a tree, protect a forest * Recycle, reuse, rethink (don’t waste anything)  * Support better public transportation, walk, ride a bike. * Drive green (take your foot off the gas!), consider a Prius   “ Start by doing what’s necessary, then do what’s possible,    and soon you will be doing the impossible…” St Francis of Assisi

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