Let's Predict the Future: E1 Scenario Planning

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Slides on "Let's Predict the Future: Scenario Planning" for a workshop session on "Predicting the Future" held on 3 June 2014 at the SAOIM 2014 conference in Pretoria, South Africa and facilitated by Brian Kelly, Cetis.

See https://ukwebfocus.wordpress.com/events/saoim-2014-lets-predict-the-future-workshop/

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Let's Predict the Future: E1 Scenario Planning

  1. 1. E: Scenario planning Let’s Predict the Future! A half-day workshop at the SAOIM 2014 conference held on Tuesday 3 June 2014 facilitated by Brian Kelly, Cetis Slides available under a Creative Commons licence (CC-BY) 1 E1: Let’s Predict the Future: Scenario Planning
  2. 2. Review We have: • Heard about the approaches for detecting signals of new technological developments. • Heard about the importance of open processes for discussing the implications of the evidence. • Used a Delphi process for identifying technological developments which you feel to be important. • Presented cases giving reasons why these areas should be investigated further. 2
  3. 3. But What Of Our Organisation? How will our organisations respond to: • The technological developments we have identified? • Unforeseen technological developments? • Political, social, economic and cultural changes? 3
  4. 4. Scenario Planning Scenario planning is: • A strategic planning method that some organisations use to make flexible long-term plans. • An adaptation and generalization of classic methods used by military intelligence. Processes: • Step 1 - decide assumptions/drivers for change • Step 2 - bring drivers together into a viable framework • Step 3 - produce initial mini-scenarios • Step 4 - reduce to two or three scenarios • Step 5 - write the scenarios • Step 6 - identify issues arising 4 From http://en.wikipedia.org/ wiki/Scenario_planning
  5. 5. Future of Libraries Possible scenarios 5 Commercialisation Devolved ownership Everyone’s a librarian The niche librarian
  6. 6. Scenario 1: Commercialisation By 2018: • Libraries had responded by financial pressures by making significant use of commercial services • Companies are now looking to respond to pressure from shareholders to increase profits 6 In your group: • How would your organisation respond to this scenario? • What evidence should you gather in order to see if this scenario is likely to happen? • What are the pros and cons of this scenario? Is this scenario one you: • Feel is likely? • Would welcome?
  7. 7. Scenario 2: Devolution By 2018: • Facebook, Amazon, … had alienated users due to abuse of privacy, failure to pay taxes, … • There was a move towards small-scale services which were owned/managed by trusted organisations 7 In your group: • How would your organisation respond to this scenario? • What evidence should you gather in order to see if this scenario is likely to happen? • What are the pros and cons of this scenario? Is this scenario one you: • Feel is likely? • Would welcome?
  8. 8. Scenario 3: Everyone’s a Librarian By 2018: • The majority are now connected using social networks and are comfortable in using the services • Skills which previously librarians possessed (cataloging resources, resource discovery, …) are now held by many. • The role of the dedicated librarian is being questioned 8 In your group: • How would your organisation respond to this scenario? • What evidence should you gather in order to see if this scenario is likely to happen? • What are the pros and cons of this scenario? Is this scenario one you: • Feel is likely? • Would welcome?
  9. 9. Scenario 4: The Niche Librarian By 2018: • We had seen a decline in student numbers in library schools and the demise of their professional organisation following significant government cuts • The professional body asked its few remaining members for their thoughts on the future of the profession 9 In your group: • How would your organisation respond to this scenario? • What evidence should you gather in order to see if this scenario is likely to happen? • What are the pros and cons of this scenario? Is this scenario one you: • Feel is likely? • Would welcome?
  10. 10. Scenario 5: Your Own Scenario You may choose to : • Define a scenario which will mean a changed environment for your organisation by 2018 • Provide a brief summary of the scenario and then address the issues below 10 In your group: • How would your organisation respond to this scenario? • What evidence should you gather in order to see if this scenario is likely to happen? • What are the pros and cons of this scenario? Is this scenario one you: • Feel is likely? • Would welcome?
  11. 11. Scenarios Possible scenarios 11 Commercialisation Devolved ownership Everyone’s a librarian The niche librarian Your own scenario
  12. 12. Group Exercise You should now: • Address one of these scenarios. • Give a report on your discussions. 12
  13. 13. Questions Any questions? 13

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