E1: Scenario Planning:  Future Technologies and Their Applications
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E1: Scenario Planning: Future Technologies and Their Applications

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Slides for a 1-day workshop on "Future Technologies and Their Applications" facilitated by Brian Kelly and Tony Hirst at the ILI 2013 conference on Monday 14 October 2013. ...

Slides for a 1-day workshop on "Future Technologies and Their Applications" facilitated by Brian Kelly and Tony Hirst at the ILI 2013 conference on Monday 14 October 2013.

See http://ukwebfocus.wordpress.com/events/ili-2013-workshop/
See http://ukwebfocus.wordpress.com/events/ili-2013-workshop/

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E1: Scenario Planning: Future Technologies and Their Applications Presentation Transcript

  • 1. Future Technologies and Their Applications A one-day workshop at ILI 2013 facilitated by Brian Kelly and Tony Hirst Twitter hashtag: #ili2013fut Available under a Creative Commons (CC-BY licence) 1 E1: Technology Trends: Scenario Planning
  • 2. Review We have: • Heard about the approach developed by the JISC Observatory for detecting signals of new technological developments. • Heard about the importance of open processes for discussing the implications of the evidence. • Used a Delphi process for identifying technological developments which you feel to be important. • Presented cases giving reasons why these areas should be investigated further. 2
  • 3. But What Of Our Organisation? How will our organisations respond to: • The technological developments we have identified? • Unforeseen technological developments? • Political, social, economic and cultural changes? 3
  • 4. Scenario Planning Scenario planning is: • A strategic planning method that some organisations use to make flexible long-term plans. • An adaptation and generalization of classic methods used by military intelligence. Processes: • Step 1 - decide assumptions/drivers for change • Step 2 - bring drivers together into a viable framework • Step 3 - produce initial mini-scenarios • Step 4 - reduce to two or three scenarios • Step 5 - write the scenarios • Step 6 - identify issues arising 4 From http://en.wikipedia.org/ wiki/Scenario_planning
  • 5. Scenarios Possible scenarios 5 Commercialisation Devolved ownership Everyone’s a librarian The niche librarian
  • 6. Scenario 1: Commercialisation By 2016: • Libraries had responded by financial pressures by making significant use of commercial services • Companies are now looking to respond to pressure from shareholders to increase profits 6 In your group: • How would your organisation respond to this scenario? • What evidence should you gather in order to see if this scenario is likely to happen? • What are the pros and cons of this scenario? Is this scenario one you: • Feel is likely? • Would welcome?
  • 7. Scenario 2: Devolution By 2016: • Facebook, Amazon, … had alienated users due to abuse of privacy, failure to pay taxes, … • There was a move towards small-scale services which were owned/managed by trusted organisations 7 In your group: • How would your organisation respond to this scenario? • What evidence should you gather in order to see if this scenario is likely to happen? • What are the pros and cons of this scenario? Is this scenario one you: • Feel is likely? • Would welcome?
  • 8. Scenario 3: Everyone’s a Librarian By 2016: • The majority are now connected using social networks and are comfortable in using the services • Skills which previously librarians possessed (cataloging resources, resource discovery, …) are now held by many. • The role of the dedicated librarian is being questioned 8 In your group: • How would your organisation respond to this scenario? • What evidence should you gather in order to see if this scenario is likely to happen? • What are the pros and cons of this scenario? Is this scenario one you: • Feel is likely? • Would welcome?
  • 9. Scenario 4: The Niche Librarian By 2016: • We had seen a decline in student numbers in library schools and the demise of their professional organisation following significant government cuts • The professional body asked its few remaining members for their thoughts on the future of the profession 9 In your group: • How would your organisation respond to this scenario? • What evidence should you gather in order to see if this scenario is likely to happen? • What are the pros and cons of this scenario? Is this scenario one you: • Feel is likely? • Would welcome?
  • 10. Scenario 5: Your Own Scanario You may choose to : • Define a scenario which will mean a changed environment for your organisation by 2016 • Provide a brief summary of the scenario and then address the issues below 10 In your group: • How would your organisation respond to this scenario? • What evidence should you gather in order to see if this scenario is likely to happen? • What are the pros and cons of this scenario? Is this scenario one you: • Feel is likely? • Would welcome?
  • 11. Scenarios Possible scenarios 11 Commercialisation Devolved ownership Everyone’s a librarian The niche librarian Your own scenarioa
  • 12. Group Exercise You should now: • Address one of these scenarios. • Give a report on your discussions. 12
  • 13. Questions Any questions? 13