Let's Predict the Future: B1 Predicting Needs and Risks


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Slides on "Let's Predict the Future: Predicting Needs and Risks" for a workshop session on "Predicting the Future" held on 3 June 2014 at the SAOIM 2014 conference in Pretoria, South Africa and facilitated by Brian Kelly, Cetis.

See https://ukwebfocus.wordpress.com/events/saoim-2014-lets-predict-the-future-workshop/

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  • We should be happy. The future has arrived.

    And we were happy – until a few years ago!
  • Let's Predict the Future: B1 Predicting Needs and Risks

    1. 1. B: Predictions #soaim14 Let's Predict the Future! A half-day workshop at the SAOIM 2014 conference held on Tuesday 3 June 2014 facilitated by Brian Kelly, Cetis Slides available under a Creative Commons licence (CC-BY) 1 B1: Predicting The Future: The Need and the Risks
    2. 2. Optimism 2 Photo used with permission.
    3. 3. #soaim14 Time of Growth  1990s & early 2000s saw: • Increased funding across education sector • Significant developments in IT sector • Willingness by senior managers & funding bodies to invest in innovative IT developments (e.g. JISC development programmes) 3 “Great proposal – we’ll fund it” Image from Flickr. CC BY-NC-SA licence: http://www.flickr.com/photos/inlinguamanchester/5036313154/
    4. 4. Stormy times 4 From the Sea of Tranquility to the Perfect Storm
    5. 5. #soaim14 Time of Growth is Over  Late 2000s and beyond: • Decreased funding across education & public sector • Acknowledgements that innovation can provide growth and cost savings • Significant developments continue in IT sector • Investment in innovative IT developments need to be based on evidence of benefits & likelihood of success 5 Image from Flickr. CC BY-NC-ND licence: http://www.flickr.com/photos/drewleavy/339489258// “You want how much? And no evidence it will work! You’re crazy!”
    6. 6. #soaim14 The Future: A Quick Summary What technological developments might have an impact in the future? For the impatient, here’s a summary! 6
    7. 7. #soaim14 The Future: A Quick Summary In the future: • Data will be Big • Content and services will be open • Services will use open source software • We’ll continue to see a growth in importance of online services • This will lead to a recognition of the value of libraries and librarians • We will travel to work by monorail • We will use jetpacks on weekends • We will go to lunar base for our summer holidays 7
    8. 8. #soaim14 The Future from the Past The future was exciting in 1956! 8 Monorail, Incorporated built a short test track of their suspended system at Arrowhead Park in Houston, Texas. Each bogie was powered by a 310-horsepower Packard automobile engine. The driver was seated high above the passenger carriage on one of the two bogies. After eight months of testing, the track was dismantled and rebuilt at the Texas State fairgrounds where it ran for many years. Its promoters claimed it could reach speeds of 160 km but no Skyway transit installations were ever built.
    9. 9. “Eagle has Landed” 9 Awoken at 3 am on 16 June 1969 to watch lunar landing on black and white TV. But the future was exciting!
    10. 10. The Future from the Past 1969 was exciting! 10
    11. 11. The future is exciting! 11 What I Expected in the Future
    12. 12. #soaim14 The Present: Better than Predicted Star Trek predicted mobile phones 12 Nokia 8110 “stole the show in 1998” but not smart phones!
    13. 13. Has the Future Arrived? Mobile phones 13
    14. 14. The Future from the Past The future is exciting! 14
    15. 15. Shush! 15 Acknowledgements to Patrick Hochstenbach (@hochstenbach) Librarians will appropriate technological developments to support their activities!
    16. 16. #soaim14 What Can We Conclude? Assumptions of: • Inevitability of technological developments • Economic growth (we can afford them) • Political and social environment (no legal or environmental barriers) There is a need to: • Be wary of predictions which:  Simply justify our organisation’s current approaches (cf. music industry)  Reflect personal beliefs • Base predictions on evidence • Acknowledge that evidence may challenge organisational or personal beliefs / prejudices 16 We need a more systematic way of predicting future developments
    17. 17. The Context In the future mobiles will be smaller & faster; Data will be Big and content and services will be open. Lots of opportunities for librarians  17
    18. 18. #soaim14 Questions Any questions? 18