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042009  W S1 Input  Lowland Communities And Agriculture
 

042009 W S1 Input Lowland Communities And Agriculture

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W S1 Input Lowland Communities And Agriculture

W S1 Input Lowland Communities And Agriculture
National Grassroots Climate Change Conference
Balay Kalinaw, UP Diliman
20-21 April 2009

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    042009  W S1 Input  Lowland Communities And Agriculture 042009 W S1 Input Lowland Communities And Agriculture Presentation Transcript

    • Climate Change and Its Impacts on Agriculture 1 by: 2 Lourdes V. Tibig 1 Presented at the Conference on Climate Change organized by the Kalikasan-People’s Network for the Environment on April 20-21, 2009 at the Blai Kalinaw. 2 Klima/Manila Observatory
    • Outline  Climate change science - IPCC AR4 - Fingerprints: Philippine Scene  Impacts - Current climate variability - El Niño/La Niña events - Tropical cyclone passage/occurences - Climate risks
    • We live in unusual times!  Ghg concentrations are increasing rapidly and are now much higher than they have been for at least 420,000 years
    • IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4)  Warming of the climate system is unequivocal  Widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level  We are committed to a warming of 0.2°C/decade
    • How have the earth’s surface temperature changed? Variations of Earth’s surface temperature for the past 140 years PROJECTED TEMPERATURE CHANGE Warming in the last 50 years is UNUSUAL in the last 1300 years 1900 2000 2100
    • Signals of climate change…. • 11 of the last twelve years: warmest years since 1850 • More frequent hot days, hot nights, and heat waves but less frequent cold days, cold nights and frost over the last 50 years • More intense and longer droughts since the 1970s • More frequent, persistent and intense El Niño since the mid-1970s
    • Is climate change inevitable? • We have pumped enough greenhouse gases into the atmosphere to warm the planet for many decades to come, • The Earth’s natural system will be affected for decades even if ghg emissions are reduced NOW.
    • Are there projections for further warming? • There are projected increases of from 1.1°C to 6.4°C during the 21st century. • For the next two decades a warming of about 0.2°C per decade is projected.
    • What is happening in the Philippines?
    • Observed Mean Annual Mean Temperature Anomalies in the Philippines Period: 1951-2006 (departures from the 1961-1990 normal values) 1.5 Anomaly 1 5 year running mean Linear (5 year running mean) Temperature Anomaly (°C) 0.5 0 -0.5 y = 0.0109x - 0.2423 -1 -1.5 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96 01 06 Year An increase of 0.6104°C from 1951-2006
    • Observed Mean Annual Maximum Temperature Anomalies in the Philippines Period: 1951-2006 (departures from the 1961-1990 normal values) 1.5 Anomaly 5 year running mean 0.947774998 1 Temperature Anomaly (°C) Linear (5 year running mean) 0.5 0 -0.5 y = 0.0062x - 0.1747 -1 -1.5 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96 1 6 Year An increase of 0.3472°C from 1951-2006
    • Observed Mean Annual Minimum Temperature Anomalies in the Philippines Period: 1951-2006 (departures from the 1961-1990 normal values) 1.5 Anomaly 1 5 year running mean Temperature Anomaly (°C) Linear (5 year running mean) 0.5 0 -0.5 y = 0.0159x - 0.3266 -1 -1.5 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96 1 6 Year An increase of 0.8904°C from 1951-2006, increase in minimum temperatures almost 3 times increase in maximum temperatures
    • Tracks of tropical cyclones that entered the PAR during the period 1948-2005 1128 tropical cyclones
    • Annual frequency of T.C. entering the PAR and crossing the Philippines (1948-2006) 35 Not Crossing the Philippines 30 Land falling/Crossing the Philippines 25 20 15 10 5 0 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 Total = 1148, Mean = 19 to 20 , Std. Dev. = 4, Max = 32 , Min = 11 528 T.C. or 46% crossed /land fall in the Country Average crossing = 9 T.C.
    • Average tropical cyclone tracks (1948-2005)
    • Average tropical cyclone tracks (1948-2005)
    • Anomaly of Annual Philippine Rainfall With Normal Base Period 1961- 1990 Annual 150 5 years mean 125 100 75 50 25 0 -25 -50 -75 -100 -125 -150
    • Percentage of Annual Rainfall associated with the passage of Tropical Cyclones (1951-2005) % of Rainfall 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Station Names NAIA 429 PortArea 425 Science Garden 430 Sangley Point 428 Vigan 222 Tuguegaro 233 Baguio City 328 Dagupan 325 Iba, Zam bales 324 Cubi Pt,Subic 426 Am bulong 432 Calapan 431 Puerto Princes a 618 Cuyo 630 Coron 526 Itbayat 132 Bas co Synop 135 Calayan 133 Aparri 232 Cabanatuan 330 Cas iguran 336 Alabat 435 Infanta 434 Rom blon 536 Mas bate 543 Daet 440 Legas pi 444 Virac Synop 446 Virac Radar 447 Roxas City 538 Iloilo 637 Catarm an 546 Catbalogan 548 Tacloban City 550 Dum aguete 642 Mactan 646 Maas in 648 Surigao City 653 Hinatuan 755 Dipolog 741 Lum bia 747 Cagayan De Oro 748 Malaybalay 751 Davao 753 Zam boanga 836 % A nnual RR due to TC % Annual RR due other Wx Systems
    • FREQUENCY OF FLOODS IN D CITIES AND O MUNICIPALITIES S T - P A G A S THE STUDY ON THE A NATIONWIDE FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT AND THE FLOOD MITIGATION PLAN FOR THE SELECTED AREAS IN THE REPUBLIC OF THE PHILIPPINES: : JICA, 2004
    • Trends of extreme events
    • Trends in extreme daily temperatures and rainfall Results: • Majority of stations show an increase in hot days and warm nights HOT WARM DAYS NIGHTS
    • Results: • There are few significant decreases in hot days at coastal stations (Aparri, Virac, Puerto Princesa), but this same behavior is also seen in coastal stations of northern and western Australia (Griffiths, et.al, 2005) Tr en ds in ex tre m e da ily te m pe rat
    • Trends in extreme daily temperatures and rainfall Results: • Decreases in cold nights and cool days are significant and almost all throughout the country. Again, this is spatially coherent across the broad Asia-Pacific region ( Manton, et. al., 2001, Griffiths, et.al., 2005 COOL COLD DAYS NIGHTS
    • Rainfall Indices • Most results are not significant. Generally, increases in total rainfall and number of raindays, again in the Visayas. TOTAL RAIN RAINFALL DAYS
    • • Increases in intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall events especially in the Visayas INTENSITY FREQUENCY R a i n f a l l I n d
    • Impacts
    • Impacts of changes in climate extremes: Known impacts:  Temperature increases beyond a threshold can affect key development stages of some crops; • Spikelet sterility in rice • Loss of pollen viability in maize • Tubers’ development in potatoes  Yield losses can be severe if temp > critical limits for even shorter periods;  Increased flood, landslide, mudslide events (and damages);  Some ecosystems show effects quickly (ex. Coral bleaching can occur in a single exceptionally warm season); and  Changes in the frequency of extreme events may disrupt some ecosystems as a result of differences in response times of species. Not adequately known: • On pest infestations • On ability of livestock to adapt to physiological stresses • on aggregated market sector effects (changes in GDP)
    • Examples of climate variability and extreme climate events and their impacts: Projected changes Projected impacts Higher maximum temperatures, • incidence of deaths and serious illness in older people and urban more hot days and heat waves poor over nearly all land areas • Heat stress in livestock and wildlife • risk of damage to a number of crops • electric cooling demand • energy supply reliability Higher minimum temperatures, • cold-related human morbidity and mortality and fewer cold days, frost days, • risk of damage to a number of crops and cold waves over nearly all • range and activity of some pests and disease vectors land areas • heating energy demand More intense precipitation • flood, landslide and avalanche damage events • Soil erosion • flood runoff could increase recharge of some flood plain aquifers • Pressure on government and private flood insurance systems and Increase in tropical cyclone disaster relief • Risks to human life, risk of infectious disease epidemics peak wind intensities, and mean • Coastal erosion and damage to coastal buildings and and peak precipitation infrastructure intensities • damage to coastal ecosystems such as coral reefs and mangroves
    • How vulnerable are we?  Documentation (done in 2000) of impacts of extreme climate events (ECEs) showed a very clear link between ECEs and adverse impacts on agriculture, water and coastal resources, health and environment, including disaster management
    • How vulnerable are we?  Preliminary vulnerability and adaptation (V & A) assessments in 5 most important sectors (agriculture, water and coastal resources, human health and forestry already indicated high vulnerability to adverse impacts of climate change  Lower capacity to adapt due to lack of financial, institutional and technological resources
    • Let’s take a look at natural disasters Major natural disasters around the world, 1963-1992
    • Major natural disasters in the Philippines
    • Some statistics on most disastrous tropical cyclones Tropical Cyclone Damages 1. Ruping 1990 P 10.8 B 2. Rosing 1995 P 10.8 B 3. Kadiang 1993 P 0.8 B
    • On agriculture and food supply  Too much or too little rains? One tonne of imported rice ~ 1000 tonnes of H2O  high temperatures spikelet fertility pest and diseases  Most fundamental of human need (food) is at great risk
    • Potential health impacts of climate and its change
    • What would climate change mean in the long term?  Freshwater availability in Southeast Asia to decrease along with population growth and increasing demand arising from higher standards of living, could adversely affect millions by 2050;  Coastal areas especially heavily-populated megadeltas will be at greatest risk due to increased flooding from the sea, and in some flooding from the rivers;
    •  Risk of hunger is projected to remain very high in several developing countries (decrease in crop yields);  Endemic morbidity and mortality due to diarrheal disease (primarily associated with floods and droughts are expected to rise due to projected changes in water cycles;
    •  Increases in coastal water temperature would exacerbate the abundance/toxicity of cholera; and  Climate change is expected to impinge on the sustainable development of most developing countries of Asia as it compounds pressures on natural resources and the environment.
    • Tipping point? To prevent a global temperature rise above 2oC, carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere has to be stabilised in the range 450 or 550 ppm  Current CO2 concentration is 380 ppm and has risen by around 100 ppm since the 1800s.
    • “Only the minimum emissions scenarios - a deep green future-can prevent global temperatures from rising more than 2oC relative to before the start of our coal and oil age.” Tyndall Technical Report, 2006
    • E-mail address: lvtibig@yahoo.com