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So what if it's a bubble? So what if it's a bubble? Presentation Transcript

  • So what if it’s a bubble?
  • The platform
    • A wall coming down
    • Mac / Windows
    • Netscape
    • Office
    • Google
    • Open source (opencourseware)/msft walking to the side
    • Fiber optics
    • Karl Marx’s revenge! Writely, Zoho, Uploading
  • What Google does & what Google doesn ’t know
    • Previously to Google, when the Secretary of State asked an advisor for a UN Security Council resolution, the advisor would just go get it and bring it to the Secretary.  Now, the Secretary of State googles the security council resolution, and the advisor is better be prepared to interpret and discuss it.
    • Thomas Friedman , vencedor do prêmio Pulitzer
    • "If someone has broadband, dial-up, or access to an internet café, whether a kid in Cambodia, the university professor, or me who runs this search engine, all have the same basic access to overall research information that anyone has.  It is a total equalizer.  This is very different then how I grew up.  My best access was some library, and it didn't have all that much stuff, and you either had to hope for a miracle or search for something very simple or something very recent.  [...Google gave that kid] universal access."
    • Sergei Brin , fundador do Google
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    • “The hottest business, media and technology success of our time”
    • THE ECONOMIST: “a religion disguised as a company”
    • GOOG: max over $470;
    • today (30 May 2006) around $370 (143B)
    • Market Cap Today? Over 113 Billion US$
    • (Petrobras ~99B)
  • “ Intent drives search ” The chasm between computer processing & human information processing.
    • There is immense value in organizing the internet in a meaningful manner.
    • “the Billion-Dollar Start-up that took on Microsoft”
    • Lessons so valuable that they’re going for $0.42 Hardcover
    • What does Lycos do?
    • Hardcover: $0.39
    • Have you ever Altavista-ed?
    • “ The search revolution!”
    • $0.01
  • Who has heard of these?
    • WWW Wanderer
    • WWW Worm
    • Webcrawler
    • Lycos
    • Infoseek
    • Excite
    • Altavista
    • Google
    • Ask (formerly Ask Jeeves)
    • MSN Search
    • Yahoo! Search
  • You shall know a word…
    • … by the company it keeps.
    • (J.R. Firth 1957)
    • Word co-occurrence programs have 4 big problems:
      • they do not take into account the intrinsic deformability of semantic space due to context-dependence;
      • the cannot detect co-occurrences of abstract structures, especially when they are highly distal;
      • they lack of essential world knowledge, which humans acquire through learning or direct experience with the world;
      • they assume that words are “atomic” entities.
  • Finding names for fathers and mothers
  • Naming plausible heads of state
  • israeli prime minister name (googled on 30 May 2006)
    • AMONG TOP 10 RESULTS…
    • BBC NEWS | Middle East | Hamas 'names its prime minister' - [ Traduzir esta página ]Israel says it will not deal with a Hamas government unless it renounces violence ... We have decided to nominate brother Ismail Haniya as prime minister ... news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4721456.stm - 41k - Em  cache - Páginas   Semelhantes
  • Rate on a scale of 1 (terrible) to 10 (excellent)
    • “ rate lawyers as: horses, fish, telephones, stones, sharks, cats, flies, birds, slimeballs, kangaroos, robins, dogs, and bastards.”
  • Rating lawyers as…
  • You shall know a word…
    • … by the company it keeps.
    • (J.R. Firth 1957)
    • Word co-occurrence programs have 4 big problems:
      • they do not take into account the intrinsic deformability of semantic space due to context-dependence;
      • the cannot detect co-occurrences of abstract structures, especially when they are highly distal;
      • they lack of essential world knowledge, which humans acquire through learning or direct experience with the world;
      • they assume that words are “atomic” entities.
    • How about the changing landscape of the internet?
    • Images, video, podcasts, radios, etc.
    • What is the quality of the relevance of google search results?
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  • Google Sets
    • imagine a sensationalist reporter wants to prey on a celebrity plagued by a sex scandal, and types “ Michael Jackson, Bill Clinton, and Hugh Grant ” as keywords for Google Sets. Would the following list be of much use for our cherished member of the free press: “ Zapiro, Monica Lewinsky, Thabo Mbeki, Robert Mugabe, Hansie Cronje, Nelson Mandela, Nkhosasama Zuma, Whitney Houston, Barney Pityana, Phillipe Troussier ”? Because it is highly unlikely that many webpages will have lists of ‘sex-scandal celebrities’, Google Sets response becomes way off mark.
  • Thesis #1
    • History & Strategy of “the Googles”; future changes in the internet landscape & associated challenges
  • Thesis #2
    • Cognitive psychology (intent / abs roles / analogies & semantics) to computer-based info processing
  • Karl Marx’s revenge
  • Nikon’s stunning gallery
    • Nikon found out that many flickr users had incredible images, & sponsored a “stunning gallery” website in which they could be displayed.
    • Nikon later gave out 200 of its new D-80 for free, for it’s pick of best photographers.
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  • Karl Marx Revenge (From Daniel Pink)
    • The means of production, in the form of computers, are now in the hands of the workers, often literally, “cheap enough to buy, small enough to house and easy to operate”
  • Blogging…
    • Bloggers have repeatedly outflanked the mainstream media on US domestic political news.
    • Glenn Reynolds, a law professor at the University of Tennessee, with no background in the media, gets half up to half a million page views a day for his blog, instapundit.com .
    • “ Talented people need organisations less than organisations need talented people.”
    • Daniel Pink,
    • Free Agent Nation: How America's New Independent Workers are Transforming the Way We Live, 2001.
  • Karl Marx’s revenge, part II: Open Source
  • Karl Marx’s revenge, part II: Open Source
    • Linux
    • OpenOffice
    • Firefox
    • Thunderbird
    • Wikipedia
    • Desciclopédia
    • OpenCourseWare
  •  
  • Menu
    • Quando a cadeia produtiva entra em colapso
  • estudo de caso na supply chain management FIGURA 1.1
  • “ Why the supply chain broke down”, BusinessWeek, March 19, 2001.
    • SETTING:
      • Telecom Networking companies (Lucent, Cisco)
      • Distributors (COMPUSA)
      • Component Makers (Motorola)
      • Software providers
      • Contract manufacturers large and small
      • ...discutindo sua SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT
  • Example: Microsoft (MSFT) The total market value of Microsoft’s assets and potential future earnings is about $272,000,000,000. (2003) There are about 11,000,000,000 shares of Microsoft stock available to buy. Therefore, the price of one share is about $25. (By the way, Bill Gates owns more than a billion shares of Microsoft stock!)
  • Bulls
  • Price of one share of Microsoft Jan 1996 to Dec 1999
  • Bears
  • Price of one share of Microsoft Jan 2000 to Nov 2003
  • NASDAQ
    • 3 de Dezembro de 1999: 3.507 pontos
    • Três meses mais tarde...
    • 10 de Março de 2000: 5.132 pontos
    • E dois meses mais tarde...
    • 10 de Maio de 2000: 3.367 pontos
    • Mínimo: 10 de Outubro de 2002: 1.108 pontos
  • “ Why the supply chain broke down”
    • Problema 1.
    • Existe uma grande dificuldade na integração dos inúmeros pacotes de software utilizados na gerência da cadeia produtiva. Provedores de software como Oracle, SAP, e i2 possuem uma gama de ferramentas para interligar fornecedores de materiais, departamentos de produção, engenheiros, e o chão de fábrica. Infelizmente, estes pacotes requerem um trabalho árduo de aprendizado por parte das corporações.
  • “ Why the supply chain broke down”
    • Problema 2.
    • Apesar de todos os avanços tecnológicos para a gestão da cadeia produtiva, os forecasts controlando todo o fluxo de trabalho continuam sendo realizados por pessoas (e não por dados obtidos das prateleiras de vendas em tempo real), de forma que, apesar da alta automação do sistema, os gerentes de vendas e CEOs continuam achando que o céu é o limite, e ainda não compartilham seu market intelligence interno com seus parceiros na supply chain .
    • Supply chain
    • Competidores
    • CEO
        • Acionistas
    PROFIT! MARKET SHARE ! MORE!
  • “ Why the supply chain broke down”
    • Enquanto a economia americana se desaquece, a indústria de eletrônicos encontra-se com uma pilha de estoques que pode levar até seis meses para ser renovada.
    • Problema 3:
    • Os fabricantes delegaram poder de compra aos contractors e distribuidores, o que gera as dúvidas sobre quem deve arcar com os imensos custos de inventário.
    • Quem é o dono deste inventário? Quem deve pagar por ele, agora que a linha divisória entre comprador e vendedor foi apagada por alianças virtuais e outsourcing ; agora que uma mesma linha de produção pode “passar” por diversas empresas distintas?
  • “ Why the supply chain broke down”
    • Exemplo.
    • A Solectron Corp., fornecedora ( contract manufacturer ) para Cisco, Ericsson, e Lucent, pôde prever o que estava para acontecer. Cada um de seus grandes clientes esperava crescimento explosivo para seus equipamentos de tecnologia wireless e de interconexão de redes. Mas como a Solectron fornece a todos os grandes da indústria, ela sabia que havia algum problema no tamanho dos pedidos.
    • Ainda assim, seus clientes mantiveram os pedidos, assegurando que iriam pagar por qualquer produção em excesso. Mas, quando a economia esfriou, era tarde demais para a Solectron cancelar os seus pedidos para os seus 4000 fornecedores. Isso fez com que a Solectron ficasse com US$4.7 bilhões em estoques.
    • So what if it’s a bubble?
  • At the 1999 World Economic Forum in Davos
    • Bill Gates, at the insistence of reporters, proclaims that “yes, it is indeed an internet market bubble, but so what? This overinvestment is not necessarily bad. As Capacity is increased, there will eventually be enormous gains in productivity”.
  • The dot-com bust
    • “ The dot-com bust actually drove globalization into hypermode by forcing companies to outsource and offshore more and more functions in order to save on scarce capital.”
    • Thomas Friedman
    • A bundle of optical fibers. Theoretically, using advanced techniques such as DWDM , the modest number of fibers seen here could have sufficient bandwidth to easily carry the sum of all types of current data transmission needs for the entire planet. (~100 terabits per second per fiber [1] )
  • So…
    • After the bubble,
    • … when there’s this extra telecomunications capacity running around, price really goes way down.
    • This brought India, China, and others into the “plug and play work architecture”.
  •  
  • 2004, Amman, Jordan Club of Rome Think Tank Thirty Meeting
  • One month later, in Helsinki…
  •  
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  •  
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  • August 26-30, 2005
    • 3 events:
    • Inauguration of the Brazilian Chapter
    • tt30’s annual meeting
    • The 1 st tt30 event open to the public & press
  • Some great supporters of the inauguration…
  • tt30 Annual Meeting
  • tt30’s first public event
  •  
    • Third-party logistics
  • Third-Party Logistics (3PL)
    • Não é baseada em transações
    • O provedor de logística não possui uma função específica (transporte rodoviário, gerência de armazens etc)
    • MAS...
    • Comprometimento de longo prazo
    • +
    • Funções múltiplas
    • +
    • Gerência do sistema
    • Exemplo: Ryder dedicated logistics – 5 year contract para projetar, gerenciar, e operar a logística da Whirlpool Corp.
  • Third-Party Logistics (3PL)
    • 3PL é predominantemente encontrado em empresas grandes
    • Minnesota Mining & Manufacturing
    • Eastman Kodak
    • Dow Chemical
    • Time Warner
    • Sears
  • Third-Party Logistics (3PL)
    • Vantagens 3PL
    • Foco nas competencies “core”
    • Flexibilidade tecnológica
    • EDI, POS data, tracking de pacotes
    • Flexibilidades adicionais
    • Custos fixos tornam-se variáveis; maior facilidade para entrar e sair de mercados
  • Third-Party Logistics (3PL)
    • Desvantagens
    • Perda de controle (acentua-se quando o provedor possui contato direto com o consumidor)
    • Logística pode ser uma competência “core”
      • Wal-Mart
      • Fedex
      • Catterpillar
    • Ex. Indústria farmacêutica possui centros de distribuição próprios para drogas controladas, mas utiliza 3PL para itens comuns.
  • Third-Party Logistics (3PL)
    • Questões envolvidas
      • comparação de custo (técnicas ABC)
      • orientação do provedor ao cliente
        • orientação consumidor
        • Confiabilidade
        • Flexibilidade
        • Custo
    • Especialização do provedor
      • LTL – Rodeway logistics, Menlo logistics, Yellow logistics
      • Warehousing – Exel logistics, GATX, USCO
      • Pressão de tempo – FEDEX, UPS
    • Posse dos recursos (asset owning)
      • Poder de barganha
  • Third party logistics
    • Exemplo
      • Demes logistics