Your SlideShare is downloading. ×
0
Akbar & greer social housing
Akbar & greer social housing
Akbar & greer social housing
Akbar & greer social housing
Akbar & greer social housing
Akbar & greer social housing
Akbar & greer social housing
Akbar & greer social housing
Akbar & greer social housing
Akbar & greer social housing
Akbar & greer social housing
Akbar & greer social housing
Akbar & greer social housing
Akbar & greer social housing
Akbar & greer social housing
Akbar & greer social housing
Akbar & greer social housing
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Thanks for flagging this SlideShare!

Oops! An error has occurred.

×
Saving this for later? Get the SlideShare app to save on your phone or tablet. Read anywhere, anytime – even offline.
Text the download link to your phone
Standard text messaging rates apply

Akbar & greer social housing

260

Published on

Presentation for Internation educators on social housing issues in Central Queensland

Presentation for Internation educators on social housing issues in Central Queensland

Published in: Education
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
260
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
0
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
3
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

Report content
Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
No notes for slide

Transcript

  • 1. Central East Housing and Homelessness Area Network 2010
    Modelling Social Housing Need
    An Overview of Actors & Factors
    Dr. Delwar Akbar
    Sustainable Regional Development Program
    Centre for Environmental Management (CEM)
  • 2. Modelling Social Housing Need- An overview of Actors & Factors
    Structure of the Presentation
    • CQ Region – An Overview
    • 3. SRDP (CEM)’s Expertise in Housing Study
    • 4. Our Engagement in the CQ Region
    • 5. Example: Bowen Basin Regional Housing Model(s)
    • 6. Social Housing Need – Provision and Actors
    • 7. Social Housing Need – Factors
    • 8. Proposed Model for Social Housing Need Analysis
    • 9. Questions
  • The CQ region – An Overview
    Second/third highest population growth within QLD
  • 10. TheCQ Region – An Overview
  • 11. Resource Boom and the CQ Housing
    Pressure, State, Impact & Response
    Economic force (Direct & Indirect & Flow on)
    Population Dynamics
    Behavioural Functions
    HOUSING
    (Quick, Short & Long)
    [Social Housing]
    Social Cohesion & Services Location
    Spatial Interaction
    (Push, Pull & Trade-off)
    Environmental Consideration
  • 12. CQU’sHousing Research
    Key areas
  • 13. Our Engagement in the CQ Region
    • 2010: Non-linear and neural housing demand modelling for the Surat Basin Towns
    • 14. 2010: Housing demand modelling and accommodation impact study for the Grosvenor Mine Project in “Economic Impact Study of Grosvenor Mine Project”.
    • 15. 2010: Housing demand forecasting and supply analysis for the Coppabella Underground Mine Project in “Social and Economic Impact Study of Coppabella Underground Mine Project”.
    • 16. 2009: Housing demand forecasting and supply analysis for the Codrilla Mine Project in “Social and Economic Impact Study of Codrilla Mine Project”.
    • 17. 2009: 2009: Housing demand forecasting and supply analysis for the Boulder Steel Project in “Economic Impact Assessment of the Boulder Steel Project”.
    • 18. 2009: Housing demand forecasting and supply analysis for Eagle Downs Mine Project in “Economic Impact Study of Eagle Downs Mine Project”.
    • 19. 2008-09: Assessing Housing and Labour Market Impacts of Mining Developments in Bowen Basin Communities (ACARP Funded Research Project)
  • Bowen Basin Regional Housing (BBRH) Model
    Aim
    To forecast housing demand for a long period in the Bowen Basin region
    Method
    • Stage 1: Linear extrapolation of demographic variables and housing types
    • 20. Stage 2: Incorporating local variable(s) into the model: changing labour market and expenditure pattern
    • 21. Stage 3: Testing the model
    Assumptions
    • Every household has propensity to own/rent a dwelling unit
    • 22. Government initiatives to construct public housing in a certain area or any emergency situation would not reflect in this model
    • 23. Changing housing preferences due to changes in tastes over time has not been considered
  • Example: Bowen Basin Regional Housing (BBRH) Model
    The Model
    Input:Population by age and sex, family type by age, housing type by family type; cumulative population impacts within the town’s threshold
    Process:Linear extrapolation based on 1996, 2001 and 2006 census data; count household size and occupancy rate by family type and % of changes over time; % of change in labour in-migration within the town’s threshold
    Output: Household types and dwelling types over a 20-30 year period.
  • 24. Bowen Basin Regional Housing (BBRH) Model
    Application of the model on Moranbah– based on ABS data
    10
  • 25. Bowen Basin Regional Housing (BBRH) Model
    Application of the model on Moranbah – Incorporating cumulating impacts
  • 26. Social Housing Provision in the CQ Region
    • Social housing stock
    • 27. 508/10,000hh in CQ (except Woorabinda)
    • 28. Public housing
    • 29. ATSI housing
    • 30. Long-term community housing
    • 31. Local government and affordable housing providers
    • 32. Social housing clients
    • 33. Low income (especially in the resource towns)
    • 34. Centrelink clients (26% in the CQ region compared to 35% in QLD - HS)
    • 35. Homelessness people (70/10,000p in CQ while 38/10,000p in QLD)
    • 36. Social housing providers and actors
    • 37. Churches and Community Organisations (e.g., Anglicare, Roseberry Community Services)
    • 38. Co-operatives and Large NGOs (e.g., Emu Park Housing Collective Ltd)
    • 39. Local Government (e.g., RRC)
    • 40. QLD Government
    • 41. Commonwealth Government
  • Social Housing Need in the CQ Region: Factors
    • Mining booms and labour market impacts on the regional and rural and resource (3R) towns:
    • 42. Higher housing and rental prices
    • 43. Higher real housing costs for lower income households,
    • 44. Accommodation costs of split families
    • 45. Housing affordability to the non-mining labours
    • 46. Population growth and changing demographic structure
    • 47. Unemployment, Income and wealth gap
    • 48. Seniors and disable persons
    • 49. Family violence, separation and divorce
    • 50. Mobility
    • 51. Aspiration
  • Social Housing Need: Proposed Model
    CQ Social Housing Demand Forecasting Model 1 – Linear
    • Stage 1: Baseline information structuring (family type by income and dwelling type by family type)
    • 52. Stage 2: Identifying and adding cumulative impacts
    • 53. Stage 3: linear extrapolation of the demographic and housing variables
    • 54. Stage 4: Predicting number of social housing need over a thirty years period
  • Social Housing Need: Proposed Model
    CQ Social Housing Demand Forecasting Model 2 – Non-linear
    • Stage 1: Establish relationship among income, occupation household type and dwelling type (Logit model)
    • 55. Stage 2: Identifying households for social housing - trend
    • 56. Stage 3: Applying Monte-Carlo Simulation
    • 57. Stage 4: Predicting number of social housing need over a thirty years period
  • Social Housing Need: Proposed Model
    CQ Social Housing Supply Analysis
    • Existing housing stocks
    • 58. Land availability
    • 59. Approval processes
    • 60. Building costs
    • 61. Availability of builders
    • 62. Institutional arrangements
    • 63. Social benefit-cost analysis
  • Modelling Social Housing Need - An overview of Actors & Factors
    Social Housing – A Key for Regional Sustainability
    Plan now – Act immediately
    !
    Thank You
    Questions?

×