Climate change science, politics and urgent actionPresentation Transcript
Outline• Introduction• The science of globalwarming• Who is to blame?• Climate crisis in thePhilippines• Half Measures & FalseSolutions• Peoples responses• Our calls
Weatherthe particular state of the atmosphere in a certainregion at a certain time. e.g. Rainy, windy, sunny, cloudyClimatethe long term weather trend of a certain region over atime period e.g. Tropical, temperate Climate Change change in the state of the climate that can be identified by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties, and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer Warming of the climate system is unequivocal
Temperature riseRise in temperature wasunprecedented since 18501900s – hottest century1995 to 2006, (except1996)-- hottest decade2005 and 1998 – hottestyears;Increase in temperature inthe last 50 years was twicefaster than last 100 years
Sea level rise
Melting snow and ice Minimum arctic sea-ice extent from 1979 to 2007
Extreme weather events Increasing Strength and frequency of Typhoons (Category 4/5)Source: Science Magazine, Sep 16, 2005
Vulnerability Factors and conditions adversely affecting the ability of the community to respond,cope with or recover easily from disaster events. High Poverty Incidence High Inflation Rates Low wages despite the increasing daily cost of living High unemployment and underemployment rate Landlessness/Inequitable distribution of country’s resources
Poor countries like the Philippines are vulnerableto enhanced hazards due to climate change Impacts are worse 100% 80% Lack of Percentage affected 60% LDC financial,institutional and Deving CIT technological capacity and 40% Deved access to knowledge 20% 0% Impact disproportionately 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s upon poor within countries 4,000 Exacerbates inequities in Number affected (Millions) 3,000 health status and access to 2,000 Deved CIT Deving adequate food, clean water LDC and other resources. 1,000 - 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s
Climate Change in the Philippines From 27 typhoons during the period 2000-2003, the number ominously increased to 39 from 2004-2007 The typhoons are getting stronger and stronger, especially since the late 1990s. Typhoon signal no. 4 is a fairly recent category. Total damages brought about by typhoons increased by 408% from 2003 to 2006 Seven of the 20 deadliest typhoons in the Philippines covering the period 1947-2006 occurred in 1990-2006
Greenhouse effect Increasing levels of GHGs in the atmosphere make for a warmer world leading to abrupt changes in climate! Greenhouse gases (GHGs) trap heat from the sun to keep the Earth warm. CO2 N2O CO2 CO2 HFCs Methane N2O Nitrous Oxide CO2 CH4 CH4Carbon Dioxide HFCs CH4 NO2 CH N2O PFCs SF6CO2 CO2 CO2 4 CH4 CO2 2 CO SF6CO2 CO2CO SF6 SF6 2 HFCs H2O PFCsWater vapor UNEP
GHG gases Generated by Carbon Dioxide Fossil fuel combustion, land clearing for (CO2) agriculture, cement production Livestock production, extraction of fossil fuels, Methane (CH4) rice cultivation, landfills, sewageNitrous Oxide (N2O) Industrial processes, fertilizer use Hydrofluoro- Leakage from refrigerators, aerosols, air carbons (HFCs) conditioners Aluminum production, semiconductor Perfluoro-carbons industrySulfur Hexafluoride (SF6) Electrical insulationmagnesium smelting
Surging GHG emissions
US and other imperialist countries US is the largest emtter in volume and per capita
Transnational corporations 1998, 4 out of the 11 biggest 2004, the 10 biggest oil TNCs in producers of oil are TNCs (BP the US control around 55% of Amoco-Arco, Exxon Mobil, the oil production while the top Royal Dutch Shell at Chevron- 50 controls 77% Texaco). 2006, Exxon Mobil Corporation 2005, oil TNCs like British reported — TNC having the Petroleum, Exxon Mobil, Shell biggest GHG emission in the world (150 million tons-6th Dutch controls 18% of global oil largest if it were a country ) – reserves and a net profit of $39.5 billion TNCs owns the biggest from gross income of $377.6 agricultural plantations, logging billion corporations, large dams, energy plants, etc..
Role of International finance International capital Finance Stimulate production and sale of consumer goods Cover debt service burden and budgetary deficits Developing countries forced to follow prescriptions of the IMF and the WB which open up resources and markets
Philippine Government Large scale plunder of the environment Without benefit to the majority of our people Benefits only a small segment of society Government policies aggravates our climate vulnerability Biofuels Act Oil deregulation law Mining Act 1995 EPIRA Forestry Code Neoliberal Globalization Corruption
Philippine GHG emissionsGHGs in RP 1999, Philippines emitted 75,998,000 metric tons of CO2 or 0.3% of world total emission. From 1990 to 1999 our CO2 emission increased by 72%. Currently we have a higher CO2 emission than some industrialized countries like Switzerland (0.1%), New Zealand (0.1%), Sweden (0.2%), Ireland (0.2%) and Norway (0.2%), and also to some oil producing countries (OPEC members) like Bahrain (0.1%), Libya (0.2%), Nigeria (0.2%) and Kuwait (0.2%)
Climate change timeline 1970 First Earth Day. Environmental movement attains strong influence, spreads concern about global degradation. 1979: First World Climate Conference adopts climate change as major issue and calls on governments "to foresee and prevent potential manmade changes in climate.” 1985: First major international conference on the greenhouse effect at Villach, Austria, warns that greenhouse gases will "in the first half of the next century, cause a rise of global mean temperature which is greater than any in mans history."
1990 First IPCC report says world has been warming and future warming seems likely. Industry lobbyists and some scientists dispute the tentative conclusions. 1992: Climate Change Convention, signed by 154 nations in Rio, agrees to prevent "dangerous" warming from greenhouse gases and sets initial target of reducing emissions from industrialised countries to 1990 levels by the year 2000.
United Nations Framework Conventionon Climate Change (UNFCCC) Ultimate Objective is the "stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic human-induced interference with the climate system. Overarching Principle: Equity and Common but Differentiated Responsibilities
UNFCCC and KYOTO PROTOCOL International agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) reduce GHG emissions, on average by about 5% between 2008-2012 relative to 1990 The flexibility mechanisms • Funding mechanisms to assist developing countries 175 countries except US and Australia (Australia later signed on Kyoto)
PREAMBLE ...“Noting that the largest share of historical and current global emissions of greenhouse gases has originated in developed countries, that per capita emissions in developing countries are still relatively low, and that the share of global emissions originating in developing countries will grow to meet their social and development needs”
PRINCIPLES Article 3.2 specific needs and special circumstances of developing country Parties that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change Article 3.3 Precautionary measures: comprehensive response, socio-economic contexts, comprise all economic sectors Article 3.4 sustainable development; policies to protect the climate system should be integrated with national development programs, taking into account that economic development is essential for adopting measures to address climate change.
Commitment on Financial Resources, Art 4.3-4.4 Developed country Parties “shall provide new and additional financial resources” to Meet the agreed full costs incurred by developing country Parties in preparing their national communications Meet the agreed full incremental costs of implementation of obligations under Article 4.1 Taking into account the need for adequacy and predictability in the flow of funds, and the importance of appropriate burden sharing among the developed country Parties.
Commitment on Adaptation Article 4.4 Developed country Parties …shall also assist the developing country Parties that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change in meeting costs of adaptation to those adverse effects. Financing of adaptation is a commitment, not a concession, or social responsibility, or an act of charity. “Particular vulnerabilities defined in the Convention (Arts. 4.8, 4.9, 4.10;
Technology Transfer, Article 4.5 Developed country Parties…”shall take all practicable steps to promote, facilitate and finance, as appropriate, the transfer of, or access to, environmentally sound technologies and know-how to other Parties, particularly developing country Parties..” “support the development and enhancement of endogenous capacities and technologies of developing country Parties…” Other Parties and organizations … may also assist in facilitating the transfer of such technologies.
Short termCommunity based disasterresponseCapacity building for Long termvulnerable communities Defend our patrimony andPopularize and implement communities against foreignproper and sustainable use of and local plunderour natural resources Work for social change –mass education campaigns incommunities on the root structural and systematic;causes, consequences and towards a society where humangenuine solutions to climate rights, national patrimony,change genuine land reform, and national industrialization is pursued
Deep and drastic cuts by the world’s top current and historical emitters Protect our environment and national resources from imperialist plunder Uphold the right of nations to advance and develop in sustainable and ecological manner, ensure self sufficiency in food and agriculture Defend our peoples rights to access and control the commons, genuine agrarian reform Work towards self-reliant ustainable, independent and progressive local economy.
In the end, those gambling in Las Vegas lose morethan they gain. As a society, we are gambling –with our big banks, with our nuclear powerfacilities, with our planet. As in Las Vegas, thelucky few - the bankers that put our economy atrisk and the owners of energy companies that putour planet at risk - may walk off with a mint. Buton average and almost certainly, we as a society,like all gamblers, will lose.-Joseph Stiglitz
Multisectoral formations Philippine Climate Watch Alliance: broad, national Peoples Action on Climate c Change: International Peoples Movement on Climate Change: International, Peoples Protocol on Climate Change