cleveland_district3_narrative

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cleveland_district3_narrative

  1. 1. CLEVELAND NEIGHBORHOOD MARKET DRILLDOWN PROFILE Cleveland Neighborhood Market DRILLDOWN District 3 Narrative SUMMARY The District 3 D RILL D OWN reveals a series of highly diverse communities, all of which are larger and have experienced more growth/change from the 2000 Census and Census Trend Projection 2003 population figures, 5.8% DRILLDOWN vs. -4.1% Census Trend Projection 2003. The D RILL D OWN also uncovered a significant cash economy ($88 million) which bolsters the District 3 economy’s aggregate market income of $704,168,935. The D RILL D OWN communities are significantly more stable and are stronger than indicated by the commercial Census Trend Projections traditionally used by the private sector. Home values are 48.5% higher and real estate is appreciating at a greater rate – 98.3% increase over 1990 census estimates adjusted for inflation. Owner occupancy indicators are higher as well: 69.8% at a building level versus 37.6% at a unit level. Total crime is down to 79.33 incidents per 1,000, compared with 142.55 incidents per 1,000 in 1997. Additionally, property crime fell 46.4% from 120.83 incidents per 1,000 in 1997 to 64.79 incidents per 1,000 in 2003. There was a similar decline in incidents of violent crime per 1,000 from 21.72 to 14.54 incidents per 1,000. Bottom line: The D RILL D OWN reveals that District 3 neighborhood markets are robust, growing and increasingly stable communities, with a strong consumer and small-business base. Copyright ©2004 by Social Compact District 3 Narrative-1
  2. 2. CLEVELAND NEIGHBORHOOD MARKET DRILLDOWN PROFILE AGGREGATE MARKET OVERVIEW: KEY OBSERVATIONS REGARDING DISTRICT 3’S SIX SPAS D RILL D OWN Neighborhoods Are Larger and Increasing in Population The D RILL D OWN reveals markets far larger and with much greater change in population than indicated by Census 2000 and Census Trend Projection: ! The residential population is 10.3% larger than indicated by Census Trend Projection 2003. The 2003 D RILL D OWN population figure is 57,146 versus Census Trend Projection’s 51,793 residential population. Broken out, this shows a positive 5.8% change in population over Census 2000 (54,002 total population) whereas Census Trend Projection indicates a negative 4.1% change from Census 2000. ! The D RILL D OWN household count is 7.7% greater than the Census Trend Projection figure (21,723 versus 20,179). ! The residential population has increased more than documented by Census 2000 or Census Trend Projection. The D RILL D OWN revealed a market 7.2% larger than Census 1990 figures whereas Census 2000 reflects a market just 1.3% larger and Census Trend Projection projects market constriction of 2.8%. It is stressed that the DRILL D OWN assumes that there was a substantial undercount in Census 1990 and thus the change in market size – Census 1990 to D RILL D OW N 2003 figure – cannot be equated directly with growth. D RILL D OWN Neighborhoods Evidence Key Indicators of Change and Strength The D RILL D OWN reveals markets with important indicators of change and strength including: ! Higher single-family home values, based on recent sales in the markets – by a very substantial 48.5% – than indicated by a Census Trend Projection 2003 Census Trend Projection (median value of $60,000 versus $40,403).1 ! Appreciation in single-family real estate values – based on recent sales – was 34.1% over the past three years (Census 2000 value: $44,750) and 98.3% over Census 1990 figures when accounting for inflation. 1 Based on an analysis of 471 single family unit sales in the district for the study period: March 2002-August 2003 Copyright ©2004 by Social Compact District 3 Narrative-2
  3. 3. CLEVELAND NEIGHBORHOOD MARKET DRILLDOWN PROFILE D RILL D OWN Income Findings Compared to Census 2000 Figures: Higher Median, Average and Aggregate Incomes, and Significant Intra-District Variance ! The D RILL D OWN revealed higher median household income figures – by 32.6% – than Census 2000 findings ($23,047 versus $17,376). Examined at the SPA level, differences in findings between D RILL D OWN and Census 2000 are significant, ranging, for example, from 37.4% lower in Industrial Valley/Duck Island (D RILL D OWN : $21,235 versus Census: $33,929) to 42.5% higher in Downtown (D RILL D OWN : $37,458 versus Census: $26,285). ! The D RILL D OWN found higher average household income – by 12.8% – than Census 2000 figures ($32,416 versus $28,744). The differences between D RILL D OWN and Census 2000 ranged from 3.3% lower in Industrial Valley/Duck Island ($35,752 versus $36,970) to 47.8% higher in Downtown ($55,549 versus $37,582). ! The aggregate market income is 16.4% higher than Census 2000. The D RILL D OWN adjusted aggregate income2 of $704,168,935 compares favorably with the Census 2000’s $605,025,406. D RILL D OWN Income Findings Compared to Census Trend Projection 2003 Figures: Higher Median, Average and Aggregate Incomes, and Significant Intra-District Variance ! The D RILL D OWN ’s overall median household income was 3.4% higher than Census Trend Projection 2003 findings ($23,047 versus $22,293, respectively). Examined at the intra-district, or SPA level, the differences in findings between D RILL D OWN and Census Trend Projection 2003 are significant as well. This variance ranged from 22.5% lower in Central (D RILL D OWN : $11,309 versus Census Trend Projection 2003: $14,588) to 47.8% lower in Downtown (D RILL D OWN : $37,458 versus Census Trend Projection 2003: $25,345). ! The D RILL D OWN ’ S average household income was higher – by 4.9% – than Census Trend Projection 2003 figures ($32,416 versus $30,989), with variance among district findings ranging from 28.8% lower in Industrial Valley/Duck Island ($35,752 versus $50,204) to 19.0% higher in Central ($20,315 versus $17,067). ! Examined in the aggregate, D RILL D OWN adjusted aggregate market income figures were higher – by 12.6% – than Census Trend Projection 2003 findings ($704,168,935 versus $625,322,506). ! Four out of six District 3 SPAs show higher aggregate D RILL D OWN income than Census Trend Projection 2003, ranging from 12.5% higher in North Broadway to 58.7% higher in Central, while only Downtown and Industrial Valley/Duck Valley exhibited aggregate income below the Census Trend Projection 2003 aggregate figure. 2 Adjusted aggregate income is inclusive of cash economy findings. Copyright ©2004 by Social Compact District 3 Narrative-3
  4. 4. CLEVELAND NEIGHBORHOOD MARKET DRILLDOWN PROFILE D RILL D OWN Reveals Cash Economy ! The D RILL D OWN revealed a cash economy, conservatively estimated at $88 million (equivalent to 14.3% of the D RILL D OWN aggregate market income). The D RILL D OWN determines the presence of a cash economy through a unique model that examines a number of local factors, including bill payment patterns, banking relationships, and income. Substantial Concentrated Income ! Substantial concentrated income is a product of the D RILL D OWN ’ S adjusted aggregate income findings. Adjusted aggregate income per acre is $83,227, 12.6% more than Census Trend Projection 2003 and 16.4% more than Census 2000. Income per square mile, determined at $53,265,426 by the D RILL D OWN , also reflects a 12.6% difference from Census Trend Projection 2003 and 16.4% from Census 2000. D RILL D OWN Neighborhoods are Increasingly Safe and Stable The D RILL D OWN reveals key indicators of increasing safety and stability: ! Crime is down: All reported incidents of crime are down 44.35% over 1997 figures. In 2003, on average, across all District 3 SPAs, the incidents of crime per 1000 persons was down to 79.33 as compared with 142.55 incidents per 1000 people for 19973. ! Owner Occupancy is far higher. Owner occupancy – when measured at a building level – is up to 69.8%, compared with 37.6% at a unit level. The disparity between owner occupancy at a building level and owner occupancy at a unit level is attributed to District 3’s housing stock which is 62.2% single family homes and two-unit structures. A Strong Business Market ! District 3’s Neighborhoods are home to approximately 7,100 documented businesses employing about 239,000 people, the largest among Cleveland districts, due to the Downtown area. Challenging traditional stereotypes, these are relatively stable businesses, reflected by the fact that 4,579 or 64.3% of the businesses have overcome the three-year survival hurdle. The aggregate revenue for all businesses is $30.945 billion. 3 Crime definitions follow the standard set forth by the FBI Uniform Crime Reports and are classified as either Property (Burglary, Larceny-Theft, Motor Vehicle Theft) or Violent (Murder and Non Negligent Homicide, Forcible Rape, Robbery, Aggravated Assault). For purposes of comparison, 2000 Census population figures were used to calculate crime per person. Copyright ©2004 by Social Compact District 3 Narrative-4

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