States of Artificial Disasters: the path to Crisis

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The ultimate guide to crisis of any sort!

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  • This website can be a useful resource to find out what started the financial crisis http://www.financialcrisis2009.org
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  • I will definitely check it out. Thanks Nancy.
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  • Have you seen explanation on subprime crisis on 'Last Laugh' by John Bird and John Fortune? Though in a comical way, it is a very good example of what you are trying to say here.

    http://philosophyrecycled.blogspot.com/2008/11/subprime-crisis-explanation-by-long.html
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  • Hi, I m totally impressed with the whole outlook of the presentation. I believe it is a perfect example of expressing the best views yourself. It is a well structured and superbly delivered presentation. The economic crisis is knocking at the door steps and i feel that all the examples shared in the slide 8 are really interesting. Modern economics has always pretended to be kind of physics but it is yet to be successful. Debt has become a disease in the country and the best medicine for this disease is a proper debt consolidation study. I too believe that reality schemes are the problems and not the solutions. The right path to complexity is the right english and not the right mathematics.
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  • This is enlightening, Stefano. With this presentation, you are at it too with your formulation of words. Inspiring others to create more in reactions. I reacted by posting it on 'Shared Values' group and my blog 'Set the Alarm'.
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States of Artificial Disasters: the path to Crisis

  1. States of Artificial Disaster THE ULTIMATE GUIDE TO BIG CRISIS OF ANY SORT. LEARN HOW OUR UNIVERSAL MODEL OF DESTRUCTION WORKS. ©
  2. The most popular question today: Jeez, how did we come to this? GOOD QUESTION! AND THERE’S A LOT MORE OF THAT KIND.
  3. Can you tell what common scheme do all those questions share? Q HOW COME PEOPLE IN THE DEVELOPED COUNTRIES ARE SO UNHAPPY? HOW COME FOOD IN THE DC’S SUCKS MORE AND MORE? HOW COME IN THE DC’S SO MANY ARE OBESE, NEUROTIC, OR DIE OF CANCER? HOW COME SOME CLEVER DC GUY FROM TIME TO TIME GETS NUTS AND KILLS? HOW COME THE MORE WE EARN IN OUR DC THE MORE WE HAVE TO SPEND? HOW COME WE ARE SUCH GOOD DC PROFESSIONALS AND SUCH A MESS WITH LOVE? HOW COME…
  4. deep ignorance + knowledge delusions THE TIME FOR HONESTY HAS COME. THERE’S A CLEAR PATH FROM THE START. FOLLOW ME… HERE IS IT:
  5. First of all we must clarify what so-called Knowledge is. K WHY? BECAUSE ACCEPTED KNOWLEDGE DRIVES THE BIG DECISIONS THAT HEAVILY AFFECT LIFE OF MANKIND AND ENVIRONMENT. BECAUSE ACCEPTED KNOWLEDGE SETS THE RULES BY WHICH WE DISTINGUISH SUCCESS FROM FAILURE AND CHOOSE OUR GOALS . IS THAT ENOUGH?
  6. To be honest, Knowledge is nothing more than images, descriptions of reality chunks picted by humans. WHAT WE CALL KNOWLEDGE IS THE LAST PRODUCTION OF OUR BIOLOGY, GENES, ENVIRONMENT, HISTORY, PERCEPTIONS, BODY STATES, HEALTH&ILLNESS, LEARNED SCHEMES, LIKES&DISLIKES, SOCIAL RELATIONSHIPS, DEPENDENCIES, EXPECTATIONS, HOPES, HABITS, REPEATED STIMULI, INFLUENTIAL MODELS, CONVENIENCE, NEGOTIATION, AUTHORITY, STRENGTH, WEAKNESS: THESE ARE THE UNDERWATER ICEBERG, KNOWLEDGE IS THE TIP.
  7. LOOK AROUND, AND LISTEN. ALL EXPLANATIONS ARE POETRY MADE OF WORDS AND FANCY METAPHORES RECALLING ONE ANOTHER AND STANDING BY ONE ANOTHER. IMAGES SOMETIMES BEAUTIFUL INSPIRING OTHERS TO CREATE MORE. THERE’S NO FOUNDATION.
  8. The Big Crisis is telling us: Man you’re grown up, you got to face it! Humans know very little. I WHICH ALSO MEANS: OUR FORECASTS ARE VERY LIMITED. AND WE LIVE ON FORECASTS…
  9. <ul><li>95% OF MATTER AND ENERGY IN THE UNIVERSE IS UNKNOWN TO US AND S0 CALLED “ OBSCURE ” </li></ul><ul><li>75% OF OUR DNA IS MEANINGLESS TO US AND SO CALLED “ JUNK ” </li></ul><ul><li>RULERS ACT ON STATS DEPICTING A GROSS WORLD THAT DOES NOT EXIST IN REALITY </li></ul><ul><li>MED IS BLIND ON MOST DISEASES, WHILE WE ARE AMIDST A TRUE CANCER EPIDEMIC </li></ul><ul><li>TECH IS APPLIED BEFORE FULL EVALUATION </li></ul><ul><li>CLIMATE MATH MODELS FAIL </li></ul><ul><li>MARKETS MATH MODELS FAIL </li></ul><ul><li>WE ONLY SEE TINY BITS OF WHAT HAPPENS. WE HAVE NO IDEA OF OTHERWISE . </li></ul>Just a few examples:
  10. The world is too complex for us to dig and rule. MATHS, PHYSICS, NEUROSCIENCE HAVE PROVEN IT IN SO MANY WAYS SO FAR: THERE ARE THINGS WE CANNOT KNOW AND WE WILL NEVER BE ABLE TO KNOW BECAUSE OF THE NATURE OF OUR BODIES AND PERCEPTIONS.
  11. Nevertheless the cool Western rulers have always pretended to know a lot. W WELL IT’S PRETTY EASY SHOULD YOU WANT TO PLAY . CONSIDER THIS: HUMAN REASON HAS ALWAYS JUDGED ITSELF WITH NO COUNTER-PARTY. JUST LIKE A STUPID GUY BOASTING AT THE MIRROR. WE DEEM OUR OBJECT “INTELLIGENT” BUT THEY ARE JUST BEHAVING MATH. OUR CULTURE HAS NO WAY TO CHECK WHETHER IT’S GETTING MORE INTELLIGENT OR MORE STUPID, EXCEPT ONE THING: FITNESS TO LIFE. AND THAT’S RUNNING VERY LOW.
  12. Since the Greeks, the cosmos has been modelized with concentric perfect spheres. THIS IDEA OF PERFECTION FROM PLATO HAS BEEN KEPT BY AUTHORITY AND VIOLENCE FAR BEYOND ADVERSE EVIDENCE FOR MORE THAN 2000 YEARS. COPERNICUS HIMSELF STILL BELIEVED IT. CONSIDER HOW ROUGH WESTERN KNOWLEDGE HAS BEEN FOR AGES.
  13. Since the Greeks, human thought has been modelized with perfect rationality and logics. THIS IDEA HAS BEEN CULTIVATED JUST LIKE A RELIGION BOTH BY CLERGYMEN (I.E. ST. THOMAS, ST. AUGUSTINE) AND SCIENTISTS (I.E. DESCARTES, LEIBNIZ) WHO INSTRUCTED US TO PART MIND FROM BODY AND THUS MAN FROM NATURE CONSIDER HOW ROUGH WESTERN KNOWLEDGE HAS BEEN FOR AGES. AGAINST ALL EVIDENCE.
  14. Since 19th century, economists have modelized human societies as collections of perfect automata and our whole living environment as a heap of disposable objects . THIS EXTREME MODEL OF IGNORANCE HAS BEEN IMPOSED BY SHEER AUTHORITY AGAINST ALL EVIDENCE CONSIDER HOW ROUGH WESTERN KNOWLEDGE HAS BEEN FOR AGES. AS FAR AS WE ARE.
  15. Our “scientific” inquiry of the world followed an obtuse way we’ll call the 6-error Knowledge Model . CONSIDER HOW ROUGH WESTERN KNOWLEDGE HAS BEEN FOR AGES. BTW REMEMBER THAT YOU SHOULD SAY SCIENCE ONLY WHEN YOU CAN REPEAT AN EXPERIMENT OVER AND OVER, AND OFTEN EVEN THAT IS NOT ENOUGH. SOCIAL SCIENCES ARE NOT REAL SCIENCES.
  16. The 6-error Western Knowledge Model body mind the world “ out there” our data CONCEPT/ THEORY OBSERVATION ABSTRACTION LAB GROWTH IDEA ASSOCIATION, MULTIPLICATION, FRAGMENTATION 1 2 3 4 5 6 ? ADOPTION & APPLICATION Model + ad hoc rules “ Jeez, how the hell did we come to this??” dust of dispersed individual researches & theories uncontrollably growing our little Model (best if maths)
  17. <ul><li>I KNOW, MODELS OF THINKING… </li></ul><ul><li>ARE NECESSARY TO FILTER CHAOS </li></ul><ul><li>PROVIDE AUTO-MODE IN LIFE NAVIGATION </li></ul><ul><li>BUT THEY </li></ul><ul><li>ARE SUCCESSFUL WHEN THEY HIT A NICE SIMPLIFICATION OR A FANCY IMAGE </li></ul><ul><li>ARE THEN HIGHLY STICKY </li></ul><ul><li>GENERATE FURTHER BAD KNOWLEDGE </li></ul><ul><li>AND WORST OF ALL </li></ul><ul><li>THE SUCCESS OF A MODEL HAS NEVER BEEN RELATED TO ITS PLAUSIBILITY. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IN ECONOMICS. </li></ul>IN FACT…
  18. The Western universal scheme of knowledge generation is a Disaster Engine. D AT EACH STEP A WORSE ERROR IS INTRODUCED AND SEALED IN AT EACH STEP MORE DETAILS ARE FOREVER PUT INTO OBLIVION AS WE MOVE FROM INITIAL NATURAL COMPLEXITY TO FINAL ARTIFICIAL COMPLEXITY GENERATED BY US. REAL LONG-TERM OUTCOMES ARE UNPREDICTABLE BY OUR LIMITED MEANS. 
  19. The point is mathematics. Say anything in math-like formulas and it will appear handy as 2+2=4. M IT’S EASY BUT SOOO RISKY! IN NATURE THERE ARE NO LINEAR PROCESSES, MOSTLY UNCERTAIN FUZZY GRADIENTS AND COMPLEX NETWORKS. TO REACH MATH’S EXACTNESS WE MUST STERILIZE NATURAL LANGUAGE AND CUT OUT SO MANY DETAILS THAT THE EVENTUAL MODEL CAN BE VERY FAR FROM REALITY. WORSE, WE DON’T KNOW HOW FAR. OK BUT HOW COMES OUR IMPRESSION WE KNOW SO MUCH? WHERE IS THE TRICK?
  20. The world seems mathematical to us because we know so little about it. “ IT’S NOT ME WHO SAID THIS BUT AN OUTSTANDING MATHEMATICIAN AND PHILOSOPHER OF LAST CENTURY, MR. BERTRAND RUSSELL . TOO BAD FOR MR. GALILEI WHO SAID THAT THE UNIVERSE IS GOD’S BOOK WRITTEN IN A MATHEMATICAL LANGUAGE . INCREDIBLY, MANY SCHOLARS STILL THINK SO.
  21. Be careful with Abstractions. They can reveal useful regularities but shift responsibilities away from real men to concepts. IF YOU THINK OF THE CRISIS SAYING LIKE: IT’S THE MARKET, IT’S KONDRATIEFF CYCLES, IT’S BANKS, IT’S GLOBALIZATION, IT’S TECHOLOGY, IT’S THIS AND THAT! YOU ARE JUST DAYDREAMING. AND YOU UNWILLINGLY DO CONNIVE AT THE CRIME OF THE ONES WHO CAUSED IT WITH THEIR STUPIDITY / ARROGANCE / GREED. A COMPANY ALSO IS A CONCEPT: IT HAS NO BODY AND FEELS NO PAIN. THERE’S MORE:
  22. Modern Economics has always pretended to be a kind of physics for human societies. But it is not. E ITS “LAWS” ARE BASED ON THIS PRETTY FORMAL MODEL: HUMANS ARE ASSUMED TO BE PERFECTLY RATIONAL AND TO ACT ALWAYS TO MAXIMIZE AN UTILITY OF THEIR OWN WHICH CAN BE MEASURED. THAT’S UNREAL AND IRRATIONAL ITSELF! EVEN WORSE, MODERN ECONOMISTS FORGOT TO INCLUDE IN IT THE NATURAL LIMITS OF RESOURCES AND THE CREATION OF WASTE.
  23. Too bad, our economics-born math-like abstract knowledge is the agenda setter for billions of tech-powered people. <ul><li>FOR EXAMPLE SUCCESS IS DEFINED AS MORE AND MORE </li></ul><ul><li>WE HAVE NO OTHER GIVEN PERSPECTIVE THAN CONSUME AND GROW! </li></ul><ul><li>THUS PEOPLE SIMPLY WANT MORE AND MORE </li></ul><ul><li>THEY PREFER NOT TO ASK AND FORGET : TECH HANDS THEM THE PILLS. </li></ul><ul><li>THEY CAN’T BUT DESPISE THOSE WHO OWN LESS OR DON’T PRODUCE . </li></ul>X DOLLARS/MONTH ! Y CUSTOMERS/DAY ! Z HITS/HOURS ! … AND RISING
  24. This is our famous fake Development: a bunch of more-and-more , no matter what . +26%% +88 +53% ,6% +11% +7,8 +0,4% +193% +2,2% +5% +193% +293% +7,2% REAL COSTS OF PROFITS WERE DUMPED ONTO SOCIETY. REAL BENEFITS WERE NOT DISCOUNTED BY BAD EFFECTS: POLLUTION, DISEASES, STRESS, FIGHTS, DISASTERS, ETC. IN FACT THE GDP STILL WEIGHS THESE AS POSITIVE TERMS! AIN’T THAT CRAZY?
  25. DESPAIR OF GROWING COMPLEXITY COMBINED WITH THE MAX-PROFIT IDEOLOGY IS A DEADLY MIX FOR TODAY'S POLITICS. MORE AND MORE DECISORS CAN'T BUT BUY MATH-LIKE REALITY SCHEMES ON CREDIT, THINKING THEY'RE THE SOLUTION. FALSE. THEY'RE THE PROBLEM.
  26. When we come to complex systems, the right language is English not mathematics. “ IT’S NOT ME WHO SAID THIS BUT AN IMPORTANT HISTORIAN OF MATHEMATICS, MR. GIORGIO ISRAEL .
  27. Enforcing only measurable criteria after a quantitative perfection myth destroys humanism and the sacred AS EVERY SPACE, TIME, WORD AND CONCEPT YIELDS TO ADVERTISING, THE ULTIMATE FAKE RESOURCE IN A FAKE ECONOMY IN SUMMARY: POLITICS SURRENDERED TO QUANTITATIVE ECONOMICS IS A MENACE.
  28. They have been ruling this world with fanciful politics made for an ideal abstract world, the kind that can be described by math and software. P IN SUMMARY: THAT’S NOT OUR WORLD. THAT’S NOT MANKIND.
  29. Result: our catastrophe-driven culture. A subprime culture. C RULERS ARE INCREASINGLY INCAPABLE TO PREVENT SO THEY JUST PUSH TO RUN FASTER AND FASTER TO PRODUCE AND POSSESS MORE AND MORE MINDLESSLY AD NAUSEAM UNTIL WE CRASH ON SOME WALL. THIS CRISIS IS JUST ONE REMINDER. WE’LL SEE MORE AND MORE OF THAT TOO.
  30. YOU CAN SEE NOW THIS CRISIS IS A BLATANT EXAMPLE OF ALL ABOVE SAID. A BREAKDOWN POINT OF DISTORTIONS ACCUMULATED BEHIND THE SCENES WHERE ADULT KIDS HAVE BEEN PLAYING WITHOUT CONTROL WITH THEIR FANCIER AND FANCIER ABSTRACT FINANCIAL PRODUCTS, PUSHED BY THE MERE DOMINANT IDEOLOGY OF GROWTH IN A BOGUS FREE MARKET, SELLING BRANDS AND FORMULAS INSTEAD OF CONCRETE VALUE. THE COMPLEXITY THEY GENERATED IS NOW OUT OF GRASP JUST LIKE WEATHER: NOBODY KNOWS WHERE WE WILL BE IN A WEEK. SO… HAVE A NICE CRISIS, AND DON’T FORGET YOUR UMBRELLA.

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