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The Black Swan Theory
 

The Black Swan Theory

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  • In today's workplace, computers and electronic communications are the norm rather than the exception. Computers, e-mail, electronic databases and on-line research play an important role in many businesses today. Technological advances have made electronic communication indispensable in today's workplace. According to recent reports, text messaging figures into L.A. train wreck probe. Investigators of last week’s L.A. train wreck that killed 25 people are looking into a report that an engineer blamed for missing a stop signal light may have been distracted by text messaging. Today, we will discuss the ever-increasing use of technology in the workplace, its potential for abuse and how employers can protect themselves.
  • Last year, the inability to produce subpoenaed e-mail resulted in million dollar—even billion dollar—lawsuits against U.S. companies.
  • Last year, the inability to produce subpoenaed e-mail resulted in million dollar—even billion dollar—lawsuits against U.S. companies.
  • Last year, the inability to produce subpoenaed e-mail resulted in million dollar—even billion dollar—lawsuits against U.S. companies.
  • Last year, the inability to produce subpoenaed e-mail resulted in million dollar—even billion dollar—lawsuits against U.S. companies.
  • Last year, the inability to produce subpoenaed e-mail resulted in million dollar—even billion dollar—lawsuits against U.S. companies.
  • Last year, the inability to produce subpoenaed e-mail resulted in million dollar—even billion dollar—lawsuits against U.S. companies.
  • Last year, the inability to produce subpoenaed e-mail resulted in million dollar—even billion dollar—lawsuits against U.S. companies.
  • Last year, the inability to produce subpoenaed e-mail resulted in million dollar—even billion dollar—lawsuits against U.S. companies.
  • Last year, the inability to produce subpoenaed e-mail resulted in million dollar—even billion dollar—lawsuits against U.S. companies.
  • Last year, the inability to produce subpoenaed e-mail resulted in million dollar—even billion dollar—lawsuits against U.S. companies.
  • Last year, the inability to produce subpoenaed e-mail resulted in million dollar—even billion dollar—lawsuits against U.S. companies.

The Black Swan Theory The Black Swan Theory Presentation Transcript

  • Black Swan Theory Main Aspects
    • A Black Swan, a member of the species Cygnus Atratus , which remained undocumented in the West until the 18 th Century.
    The Black Swan Theory The Beautiful Bird
    • The Black Swan Theory is a metaphor that discuss the impact of a hard-to-predict event or a surprise in many aspects of our Society.
    The Black Swan Theory The Key Concept
    • The Black Swan Theory is a philosophical and mathematical theory founded by Nassim Nicholas Taleb and it describes randomness and uncertainty.
    The Black Swan Theory The Author – Nassim Nicholas Taleb
    • It's name originates in the assumption in Medieval Europe that black swans could not exist, when in fact, they are rare, but do exist.
    The Black Swan Theory Where does the name come from?
    • According to the Black Swan Theory, unpredictable events are much more common than people think and are the norm and not the exception.
    The Black Swan Theory Important
    • Taleb believes that:
      • The more educated people are, the more likely it is that they incorrectly believe these unpredictable events are uncommon.
      • Information overflow in today's society blind us from relevant data about our life.
      • We don´t interpret data accurately and create correlations that are not relevant.
    The Black Swan Theory Main Aspects of the Theory
    • In 1943, the chairman of IBM, Thomas
    • Watson, declared that, “there is a world
    • market for maybe five computers.”
    The Black Swan Theory Real Life Examples - Famous Predictions In 1962, Decca recording company said of the Beatles, “we don’t like their sound, and guitar music is on the way out.”
    • Real estate were convinced to be the best reliable asset but it was then proven wrong and the crisis destroyed many business and people´s life.
    The Black Swan Theory Real Life Examples – USA Crisis
    • We can´t predict the future based on the following statements:
      • Whatever proven right today, doesn’t mean it will be right forever. It can be proven wrong tomorrow.
      • Whatever proven wrong tomorrow, doesn’t mean it will NOT be proven right again.
      • Whatever proven wrong today, doesn't mean it will be wrong forever. It can be proven right tomorrow.
    The Black Swan Theory We can´t predict the future!
    • The first thing is you should not deny the black swan events. It happens to everyone.
    • Another important thing to understand is, a black swan event to me might not be a black swan event to you.
    • Plan for the worst case. What could be the black swan event for you?
    The Black Swan Theory How to deal with the Hard-to-predict Event
  • Lico Reis Consultoria & Línguas Prof. Roberto Lico Our Website: www.licoreis.com [email_address] [email_address] [email_address] Linkedin: ww.migre.me/1d9r Twitter: @licoreis