Galli Scenarios Methodologies

Slide 1: IST-511607 Life goes mobile! All photos © Nokia An Integrated Project in European Union’s 6th Framework Programme Scenarios methodologies L.Galli-Neos Oulu Summer School September 7, 2005 Slide 1

Slide 2: Scenarios methodologies IST-511607 Content • Scenarios across disciplines – Strategy – Futures Studies – ICT • HCI • Software engineering / requirements • Highlights from MobiLife • General issues and questions for discussion Oulu Summer School September 7, 2005 Slide 2

Slide 3: Scenarios and Strategy IST-511607 • Military strategist Herman Kahn of the RAND corporation is usually credited as the first in pioneering scenarios in the early 1950s • The work done at Shell in the 1970s, which allowed to foresee the oil crisis, is the first very well known case of a successful application of scenarios for businesses • GBN-Global Business Network, founded in 1987, is one of the most famous consultancies and training organizations active in the scenarios field – GBN leverages contributions and relations with high achievers coming from disparate domains (e.g. performing arts, science, writing, etc.) Oulu Summer School September 7, 2005 Slide 3

Slide 4: Scenarios and Strategy IST-511607 • Herman Kahn on the advantages provided by scenario thinking – Scenarios make the analyst salient to important events that should be taken into account in the uncertain future – Scenarios require the treatment of details and dynamics – Scenarios provide assistance in articulating the interaction of psychological, social, political, and military aspects, including the individual influence – Scenarios can illustrate certain principles or questions – Scenarios can be used to reason about alternative possibilities for past or present crises Source: Go, K. and J.M. Carroll (2004): The Blind Men and the Elephant. Views of Scenario-Based System Design, Interactions Oulu Summer School September 7, 2005 Slide 4

Slide 5: Scenarios and Strategy IST-511607 Describing 2005 in 1991 • Peter Schwartz’s scenario methodology classic Art of the Long View (1991, 1996) includes three scenarios of a then more ten-years distant future Oulu Summer School September 7, 2005 Slide 5

Slide 6: Scenarios and Strategy IST-511607 Shell scenarios about 2025 • Shell still promotes long-term macro-level scenarios as with its 2025 report (available for purchase!) Oulu Summer School September 7, 2005 Slide 6

Slide 7: Scenarios and Futures Studies IST-511607 • The expression “Futures Studies” refers to an interdisciplinary context of scholars, authors, research organizations and practices bounded by a forward-looking orientation – Special attention to medium to long-term alternative futures (e.g. 10 to 20 years or even more) – Prevalent but not exclusive social sciences or policy background – Strong differences (even fragmentation) between cultural, national traditions, practitioneers, organizations • “Futures” journal, World Futures Studies Federation, US-based World Futures Society, UK Foresight, Turku school, French “Prospective”, Club of Rome, ... • Scenarios have been widely applied and studied in this context as one of its distinctive research strategies or techniques Oulu Summer School September 7, 2005 Slide 7

Slide 8: Scenarios and Futures Studies IST-511607 Two definitions • “A self-consistent picture of the future or an aspect of the future. The best scenarios are carefully created to be internally coherent and useful. Used mainly to illustrate continuities from and contrasts to the present in order to reveal choices, consequences etc.” Slaughter, 1999 • “Scenarios deal with the core problems of a given futures study. Individual trends do not automatically come together to create useful images of the future applicable to planning. A primary purpose of scenarios is to create holistic, integrated images of how the future may evolve. These images, in turn, become the context for planning, a testing ground for ideas, or the stimulus for new development” Coates, 1999 Oulu Summer School September 7, 2005 Slide 8

Slide 9: Scenarios, trends and forecasts IST-511607 • Trends extrapolation – Extrapolation from current trends usually is not considered “scenario planning” or “scenario building” – They are elements of a scenario process but the assumptions are different • e.g. you can have a scenario that it is not supported by current trends – weak signals analysis, “wild cards” etc. address these cases • Forecasts – The possibility of having forecasts is obviously highly controversial • Still, the Shell case was also one of a successful forecast – In any case, scenario-based forecasts are of different nature than quantitative-based predictive techniques (out of scope in this context) Oulu Summer School September 7, 2005 Slide 9

Slide 10: Create scenarios IST-511607 • Create scenarios means to invent surprising and yet plausible stories – Novelty is essential – Challenge the stereotypes – Deliberately suspend disbelief • Still taking into account time scales and constraints – Scenario efforts are still heavily dependent on interpretation, as there are not a really well-defined processes and/or procedures • Some important parts of the most common model rely on other design, research and creative methods – Brainstorming – Structured and unstructured interviews – Storytelling – ... Oulu Summer School September 7, 2005 Slide 10

Slide 11: Scenarios supports visions IST-511607 • Scenarios provides alternative images of the future (“futures”), with different grade of probability and/or committment from the people involved – e.g. sound foresight implies also to consider the least desirable alternatives, in order to not to be get completely unprepared • Vision is a more coherent representation of the expected context and the position that we (as individuals, organizations, etc.) want to have in it and strive to achieve – Implies a call for action, something that it can happen but can not be taken for granted • “Mission statements” and related objectives are grounded in a shared vision (or they ought to be!) – Express also values, beliefs and aspirations • Create shared meaning • Stimulate improving • ... Oulu Summer School September 7, 2005 Slide 11

Slide 12: The Envisioning Cycle IST-511607 Research • Users Scenario Alfa • Society Vision • Markets • Technology • ... Foresight • Roadmapping Scenario Beta Mission • Emerging issues • ... Strategies Analysis (and debate) Plans • Organization involved • Stakeholders Scenario Gamma Actions • Expectations, fears, desires ... • ... Remoulded from Aalto Oulu Summer School September 7, 2005 Slide 12

Slide 13: Scenarios in ICT design IST-511607 HCI and SW requirements • HCI-Human Computer Interaction uses scenarios to describe the use of systems and to envision more usable computer systems – Scenarios displays the actions of actors representing specific people who carry out real or realistic tasks • “Day-in-the-life” scenarios are a typical example of this approach • The story does not necessarily happen in a future setting – From the development life cyclem point of view, scenarios are then relevant for • Ideation -> Design - > Evaluation – Iteratively if appropriate – Scenarios do not provide directly specifications and/or requirements but offer a basis on which they can be derived from Source: Go, K. and J.M. Carroll (2004): The Blind Men and the Elephant. Views of Scenario-Based System Design, Interactions Oulu Summer School September 7, 2005 Slide 13

Slide 14: Scenarios in ICT design IST-511607 HCI and SW requirements Source: Go, K. and J.M. Carroll (2004): The Blind Men and the Elephant. Views of Scenario-Based System Design, Interactions Oulu Summer School September 7, 2005 Slide 14

Slide 15: Scenarios examples IST-511607 ISTAG Ambient Intelligence • EU ISTAG-Information Society Technology Group (previous membership) “Scenarios for Ambient Intelligence in 2010” Oulu Summer School September 7, 2005 Slide 15

Slide 16: Scenarios examples IST-511607 TUTTI project • Catchy titles and imagery in one slide from the Finnish TUTTI project Oulu Summer School September 7, 2005 Slide 16

Slide 17: Scenarios examples IST-511607 Wireless Foresight • Scoring dimensions for high-level macro-scenarios (in which day-in the-life scenarios are embedded) from the KTH Wireless Foresight project Oulu Summer School September 7, 2005 Slide 17

Slide 18: Scenarios as a narrative-based IST-511607 “common language” for design • “Scenario literally means the written version of a play or a story. Business scenarios are ‘focused descriptions of fundamentally different scenarios presented in a coherent script-like or narrative fashion’. Scenarios are plausible and challenging stories, not forecasts” Birchall, 2002 • “The vocabulary of concrete narratives is accessible to and sharable by diverse stakeholders in a design project: planners and managers, requirements engineers, software developers, customer representatives, human-computer interaction designers, and the users themselves. In this sense, scenarios provide a common language for design.” Go, 2004 Oulu Summer School September 7, 2005 Slide 18

Slide 19: Highlights from MobiLife IST-511607 The scenario process Existing scenarios from outside MobiLife (WWI, ITEA, Wireless@KTH, etc.) scenario analysis research questions consolidated list of Original scenarios and analysis user tasks/behaviours from MobiLife WPs 4 scenarios info about collaborative Monday MobiLife collaborative workshop workshop Friday users (All MobiLife WPs) (All MobiLife WPs) Sunday Olympics Oulu Summer School September 7, 2005 Slide 19

Slide 20: Highlights from MobiLife IST-511607 Analyzing existing scenarios • Caveat: designing high-level macro-scenarios was not part of the project • Review the literature to avoid repetition – Scan the sources from different stakeholders and geographies • Pre-standardization and standardization bodies, private companies and consultancies, research institutes... • Europe, US, Asia • Look for common, reusable elements – Specific taks-behaviours can be grouped, compared and mapped onto different dimensions • To elicit research questions and objectives • As raw material or inspiring directions in building original scenarios Oulu Summer School September 7, 2005 Slide 20

Slide 21: Highlights from MobiLife IST-511607 Analyzing existing scenarios • Snip from the tables reporting the scenario analysis conducted in Mobilife (scheduling-related user tasks/behaviours) Oulu Summer School September 7, 2005 Slide 21

Slide 22: Highlights from MobiLife IST-511607 Inventing original scenarios • The first step is devising a basic structure or plot – E.g. days in the life of an ordinary family • MobiLife research objectives (e.g. work-life balance issues) influenced the type of families and actions invented • The you have to create the proper narratives – Critical team-based work, you are playing the writer game • Time contraints can be daunting • Allow open discussion, exploit brainstorming techniques (manage the process) • Then translate into visualizations – Careful storyboarding • Make the story convincing, not just a show-up of fancy devices – Recruit a graphic professional • Likely (as it happened ☺ ) it will greatly improve the work • Finally have standard english versions for experts and localizations for end users – Literally translations are not enough, be careful of cultural differences, national habits vary a lot and may render your sequence less believable Oulu Summer School September 7, 2005 Slide 22

Slide 23: e.g. Group 2 Scenario Characters: IST-511607 Supporting Cast Ex Friends c erp colleagues Work Work colleagues fro t sh Friends m ow an n a Father i Mothernte s a Friends rn n e al Grandmother x dr am aft ple ! Flatmate Child Friends Family Grown-up Child Scout leader Teachers etc... 21 October 2004 Slide 23

Slide 24: OIympics – characters draft version as of 24 October IST-511607 Family: Father (Pekka), mother E (Adriana), son (Christian) (18) xc from Hanover for the Winter Pekka and Adriana are visiting Turine rp Olympics. fro t sh Adriana and Pekka start the day in their hotel ow m in central Turin. a Milan n a the Erasmus Christian is based this year at University in n through in sa programme, but he is not with them because he tis studying hard for an er n n exam. a ex l d am raf t! ple 21 October 2004 Slide 24

Slide 25: M.4 Jaakon pitäisi ostaa syntymäpäivälahja

Slide 26: F.10 Maria riprende alcuni particolari dei danni alla sua auto, convidendoli instantaneamente con l’impiegato in servizio presso l’assicurazione grazie a una funzione speciale del video inserito nel suo dispositivo personale

Slide 27: Some issues to be considered IST-511607 • “Wow!” factor – Very difficult to surprise people with totally new ideas • Believability – Still it is easy to get objections such as “I dont believe its gonna work”; perception of technology is complex, has different values etc. • Technological fatigue – Some people can be annoyed in seeing that every task or daily activity requires all of a sudden the entire catalogue of your new devices and applications • Clichés – Executives managing everything from shopping lists to boardroom matters with an always-on, apparently costs-free powerful smart device while travelling abroad.... • Vagueness – Users may not understand exactly what you are trying to portray • Contrasts with hands-on feedbacks – There could be huge differences between what people say and how they act (e.g. body-generated information in WP2 gaming system) Oulu Summer School September 7, 2005 Slide 27

Slide 28: Questions for discussion IST-511607 • Are scenarios equally useful across all the design life cycle? – Inventing apps & services with scenarios: how good are scenarios as a tool for this purpose? • Is it possible to involve end-users in the scenario creation? • Have the ICT community something to learn from the Strategy and Futures Studies communities of practice? – Evaluating apps & services with scenarios: how good are scenarios as a tool for this purpose? To what extent you can avoid their limitations? • Different scenarios methodologies – How they can be integrated in a unique project framework? • Are there too strong limitations inherent to the method per se or it is just difficult to build good scenarios? – i.e. have appealing visuals, interesting narratives, hit existing needs and desires, make people think about emerging ones... Oulu Summer School September 7, 2005 Slide 28

Slide 29: IST-511607 Thanks for your attention! Picture from mITF “Flying carpet” report Oulu Summer School September 7, 2005 Slide 29

Slide 30: IST-511607 Annexes Oulu Summer School September 7, 2005 Slide 30

Slide 31: References and further reading IST-511607 • Bell, W. (1997), Foundations of Futures Studies, vol. 1, New Brunswick: Transaction Publishers • Birchall, D. And Tovstiga, D. (2002), Future Proofing, Oxford: Capstone Publishing • Coates, J. (1999), An Overview of Futures Methods, in Slaughter, R. (1999), Knowledge Base of Futures Studies, Millennium Edition CD ROM, Indooroopilly, Queensland, Australia: Foresight International • Go, K. and J.M. Carroll (2004): The Blind Men and the Elephant. Views of Scenario-Based System Design, Interactions, Nov.-Dec. issue • Landsell, S. (2002), The Vision Thing, Oxford: Capstone Publishing • Masini, E.B. (1993), Why Futures Studies?, London: Grey Seal • Ogilvy, J. (1999), Scenario Planning. Critical Theory and the Role of Hope, in Slaughter, R., 1999 • Schwartz, P. (1991), The Art of the Long View. Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World, New York: Currency-Doubleday • Slaughter, R. (1999), Glossary of Future Terms, in Slaughter, 1999 • Stevenson, T. et al. (2001), The Quest of the Futures: a Methodology Seminar in Futures Studies, Turku, Finland Futures Research Centre Oulu Summer School September 7, 2005 Slide 31

Slide 32: Schwartz’s methodology tips IST-511607 • Peter Schwartz’s “Art of the Long View” (Schwartz, 1991-6) provides some clear suggestions on how to develop scenarios – Again, enphasys is not on process but on practical steps that could be considered as not more than a rough guide – His approach is particularly related to the practice of “strategic conversations”, presented as an informal dialogue enriched by specific “precepts” like • Have hospitable climate for discussions (welcome diverse point of view and lively confrontation) • Include both decision makers / experts and outsiders (to really have “out of the box” thinking) • Hold them far in advance of decisions (increase indipendence for the need to act) • Look at the present and at the past • Evade the “Offical Future”, the expectation that defines your identity Oulu Summer School September 7, 2005 Slide 32

Slide 33: Schwartz’s methodology tips IST-511607 Focal issue / decision • Begin “from the inside out” rather than “from the outside in” – Look at specific decision or issue of your context • Macro-economic differences and/or so-called “mega-trends” can be too generic to offer a good basis for discussion – Start using important decisions as an entry point for the exercise • Still manage not to get caught with current worries; objective is not short- term action but clarity on what “keeps you awake at night” Oulu Summer School September 7, 2005 Slide 33

Slide 34: Schwartz’s methodology tips IST-511607 Key factors and driving forces • The overall dynamic consists of two different levels, local and macro – Key factors influencing the issue taken as focus in the local environment • Reasons / actors critical for success or failure in your particular domain – User / customers – Competion / coopetition – Suppliers – ... – Driving forces in the macro-environment • Affect / impact the key factors above – Social – Economical – Technological – Environmental – ... Oulu Summer School September 7, 2005 Slide 34

Slide 35: Schwartz’s methodology tips IST-511607 Ranking and logics • Rank the identified factors and forces according importance and uncertainty – What the relevance for the focal issue / decision – How certain / uncertain • Reduce factors and forces to a limited set around which you can build scenarios – Most important factors and forces will be axes or dimensions of your map or n- dimensional matrix – Different positions in your representation will correspond to different scenarios – The scenario logic will be determined by its position in the map / matrix • Pre-determined elements (e.g. driving forces with a high level of certainty) will be reflected in each scenario • Uncertanties will be played out differently Oulu Summer School September 7, 2005 Slide 35

Slide 36: Schwartz’s methodology tips IST-511607 “Fleshing out” the scenarios • Scenario logic is the skeleton, narrative is the scenario body – Come back to key factors and driving forces, articulate the plot around related choices / assumptions • Give consistency to the scenario by assigning coherent values and developments • Imagine a reasonable path from the current state to the scenario described – Some creativity and a broad set of conceptual and media skills (writing, visualizations) are key at this stage • Build an interesting and reasonable plot, characters and actions that can resemble real life – Be careful both of extremes (scenarios in which everything works perfectly or with totally dark outcomes) or unwanted forecasts (e.g. having three scenarios, ending up in consider the middle one as the most probable) – Begin with simple scenarios, use them for discussion, research additional information and revise them for better consistency Oulu Summer School September 7, 2005 Slide 36

Slide 37: Schwartz’s methodology tips IST-511607 Implications and Indicators • Return to the focal issue / decision – What the consequences in each scenario • Identify vulnerabilities, adaptability of your strategies / action plans • Extract indicators and signposts – Spot metrics for factors and drivers selected as axes of transformation, elements of scenario logic – Useful tool for discussion and planning • or reason why to revise your scenario exercise, building different and new alternatives Oulu Summer School September 7, 2005 Slide 37

Slide 38: Scenarios methodologies IST-511607 Drawing a cathedral with a blind man The blind man got down from the sofa and sat next to me on the carpet. He ran his fingers over the paper [...] He found my hand, the hand with the pen. He closed his hand over my hand. “Go ahead, bub, draw,” he said. “Draw. You’ll see. I’ll follow along with you. It’ll be okay.” [...] So I began. First a drew a box that looked like a house. It could have been the house I lived in. Then I put a roof on it. At either end of the roof, I drew spires. Crazy. “Swell,” he said. “Terrific. You’re doing fine,” he said. Raymond Carver, Cathedrals (1989) Oulu Summer School September 7, 2005 Slide 38