How to measure influence in social networks

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Sinan Aral's talk on measuring influence given at Planning-ness 2012

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How to measure influence in social networks

  1. 1. @sinanaralInfluence Influence inMediaMeasuring in Social Social Networks (Media) Networks @sinanaral @sinanaral
  2. 2. @sinanaral The Problem Influence in Social Media IndustrialNetworks Strength Examples @sinanaralHow to Mine An Influence Graph
  3. 3. @sinanaral The Problem Influence in Social Media IndustrialNetworks Strength Examples @sinanaralHow to Mine An Influence Graph
  4. 4. @sinanaral
  5. 5. @sinanaral@sinanaral
  6. 6. @sinanaral Checks every 37 minutes@sinanaral
  7. 7. @sinanaral Posts to 5x daily@sinanaral
  8. 8. @sinanaral Reviews on 4x per week@sinanaral
  9. 9. @sinanaral Updates every 1 hour@sinanaral
  10. 10. @sinanaral
  11. 11. @sinanaral
  12. 12. @sinanaral@sinanaral
  13. 13. @sinanaral
  14. 14. @sinanaral
  15. 15. @sinanaral If we can understandhow behaviors spread…
  16. 16. @sinanaral from person to person to personto person
  17. 17. @sinanaralwe could promote
  18. 18. @sinanaral condom use, exercise, productivity, tolerance,financial responsibility,sustainability, economic development…
  19. 19. @sinanaralor contain
  20. 20. @sinanaralsmoking, dirty needlesharing, fraud, default, obesity, violence, hatred, waste, poverty…
  21. 21. @sinanaral
  22. 22. @sinanaralInfluence in Social Media Networks @sinanaral
  23. 23. @sinanaral
  24. 24. @sinanaralThe “Reflection Problem” Human behaviors cluster in network space and time… but is this because of peer influence or alternate explanations?
  25. 25. @sinanaral “Obesity is Contagious”Christakis & Fowler (2007)
  26. 26. @sinanaral Homophily “Birds of a feather, flock together”Robert Burton (1577-1640)
  27. 27. @sinanaral “(People) love those who are like themselves”Aristotle
  28. 28. @sinanaral “Similarity begets friendship”Plato
  29. 29. @sinanaral “Hanging out with a bad crowd will get you into trouble”Sinan’s Mom
  30. 30. “Everything is Contagious” Alternative explanations:  Reflection  Homophily  Confounding“Loneliness is Contagious”
  31. 31. @sinanaral The Problem Influence in Social Media IndustrialNetworks Strength Examples @sinanaralHow to Mine An Influence Graph
  32. 32. @sinanaral
  33. 33. @sinanaralThe “iPad Effect” 16 P(Adoption | Friend Adopts) 14 12 INFLUENCE 10 Controlling for correlated preferences and confounding effects 8 6 4 2 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 DAYS SINCE LAUNCH
  34. 34. @sinanaral
  35. 35. @sinanaral“VIRAL DESIGN” Can we engineer products so they are more likely to be virally shared?
  36. 36. @sinanaral The Setup App Randomly Enabled Viral Messaging. Observed the Adoption and Use of the App by Friends of Control and Experimental Group Users.
  37. 37. @sinanaralFlixster - An Example Facebook Application
  38. 38. @sinanaralFlixster - An Example Facebook Application
  39. 39. @sinanaralUsers can invite their friendsto adopt the application andjoin their social network onthe application itself.
  40. 40. @sinanaralUsers can invite friends to install this application andinclude a personal message
  41. 41. @sinanaral
  42. 42. @sinanaral
  43. 43. @sinanaral
  44. 44. @sinanaralWhich Features Spread Contagion Best? Personal Passive Invitations Awareness Influence Per Message ↑6% ↑2%Global Diffusion ↑98% ↑246% Stickiness ↑17% 0%
  45. 45. @sinanaral
  46. 46. @sinanaral
  47. 47. @sinanaral
  48. 48. @sinanaral
  49. 49. @thesocialcure
  50. 50. @sinanaral The Problem Influence in Social Media IndustrialNetworks Strength Examples @sinanaralHow to Mine An Influence Graph
  51. 51. @sinanaral#planningness
  52. 52. @sinanaralhttp://www.followthehashtag.com/
  53. 53. @sinanaral#planningness 2012
  54. 54. @sinanaral#planningness
  55. 55. @sinanaral
  56. 56. @sinanaral#planningness
  57. 57. @sinanaral
  58. 58. @sinanaral
  59. 59. @sinanaral NodeXLhttp://nodexl.codeplex.com Gephi https://gephi.org/
  60. 60. @sinanaralNodeXL
  61. 61. @sinanaralNodeXL
  62. 62. @sinanaralGephi
  63. 63. @sinanaralGephi
  64. 64. @sinanaralGephi
  65. 65. @sinanaralGephi
  66. 66. @sinanaral
  67. 67. @sinanaralInfluence Influence inMediaMeasuring in Social Social Networks (Media) Networks @sinanaral @sinanaral

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