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How to predict what individuals will buy next
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How to predict what individuals will buy next

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How to predict what individuals will buy next How to predict what individuals will buy next Presentation Transcript

  • Erasmus Centre for Neuroeconomics How to predict what individuals will buy next A short history of neuromarketing Rotterdam School of28 Jan 2013 / Neuromarketing www.clementlevallois.net Management
  • How to predict what individuals will buy next• Ask them! – Focus groups, polls, surveys, … Rotterdam School of28 Jan 2013 / Neuromarketing www.clementlevallois.net Management
  • How to predict what individuals will buy next• Lab experiments, field experiments – Observe them in situation and find out general rules of behavior! Rotterdam School of28 Jan 2013 / Neuromarketing www.clementlevallois.net Management
  • How to predict what individuals will buy next• Econometrics / time series analysis => Check what they did in the past and infer! Rotterdam School of28 Jan 2013 / Neuromarketing www.clementlevallois.net Management
  • How to predict what individuals will buy next• Modeling => Make some basic hypothesis about how individuals behave in general, and deduct from there Rotterdam School of28 Jan 2013 / Neuromarketing www.clementlevallois.net Management
  • Problems with individuals• They are so specific• They get influenced• They are not logic• They don’t understand who they are• They are expensive• They don’t scale up Rotterdam School of28 Jan 2013 / Neuromarketing www.clementlevallois.net Management
  • Two new directions Ask the brain! Ask the crowd! (the neuro turn) (the digital turn) Rotterdam School of28 Jan 2013 / Neuromarketing www.clementlevallois.net Management
  • Ask the crowds!• “A crowd is anything that crashes Excel”• Twitter, FB, Google, … – Any data source which gives info on behavior at a large scale. Rotterdam School of28 Jan 2013 / Neuromarketing www.clementlevallois.net Management
  • Crowds are…• “sincere” (are they?)• representative (are they?)• relatively inexpensive (really?)• Scale up well (sure?) Rotterdam School of28 Jan 2013 / Neuromarketing www.clementlevallois.net Management
  • Ask the brain!• The brain doesn’t lie (or does it?)• The brain is universal (is it?)• The brain is measurable (easily?) Rotterdam School of28 Jan 2013 / Neuromarketing www.clementlevallois.net Management
  • Ask the brain – how easy can it be?• Major scientific paradigm shift - Creates resistances, controversy, debates Is it ok to drop “the individual” as the focus of analysis?• Mix of competencies: neuro and social! - not easy to create research groups that can be good at both Rotterdam School of28 Jan 2013 / Neuromarketing www.clementlevallois.net Management
  • Looking at the brain where are we now in 2013?• 1960s: the brain is a taboo in psychology• 1970s: gets better, but not many ways to probe it• 1980s: PET and fMRI!• 1990s: Decade of the Brain• 2000s: First results• 2010s: Commercial applications take off Rotterdam School of28 Jan 2013 / Neuromarketing www.clementlevallois.net Management
  • A closer view on 2002-2012 a timeline of neuromarketing => With an answer to the question: can neuromarketing help predict sales better? http://www.clementlevallois.net/sandbox/timeline/index.html Rotterdam School of28 Jan 2013 / Neuromarketing www.clementlevallois.net Management