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S&P mars 2014

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  • 1. S&P RATINGS SERVICES SOVEREIGN RISK INDICATORS March 2014
  • 2. CONTENTS Economic Data 3 General Government Data 15 Balance-Of-Payments Data 27 External Balance Sheet 39 Glossary Of Terms 51 Contacts 53
  • 3. 3Data as of 24th March 2014 © Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, 2014 e--Estimate. f--Forecast. LT FC--Long-term foreign currency. N/A--Not applicable. Table 1 Sovereign Risk Indicators: Economic Data Nominal GDP (bil. US$) Per capita GDP (US$) Savings/GDP (%) LT FC rating 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f Abu Dhabi AA 248 264 279 293 308 106,324 104,644 102,586 99,793 97,077 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Albania B 12 13 14 15 16 4,354 4,611 5,013 5,315 5,706 32.3 32.2 32.1 33.5 33.8 Andorra A- 3 3 3 3 3 42,260 43,541 43,597 43,746 45,195 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A Angola BB- 116 133 159 185 213 5,586 6,189 7,228 8,190 9,186 27.1 28.8 26.2 23.7 22.2 Argentina CCC+ 477 489 480 486 501 11,555 11,738 11,395 11,423 11,672 21.9 19.9 18.7 17.8 17.2 Aruba BBB+ 3 3 3 3 3 23,134 23,182 24,412 25,542 26,712 30.9 20.4 20.6 20.9 21.1 Australia AAA 1,532 1,561 1,474 1,521 1,566 67,436 67,468 62,861 64,035 65,045 24.9 24.6 24.2 24.3 24.8 Austria AA+ 394 417 426 434 454 46912 49351 50151 50922 53024 23.1 23.5 23.9 24.4 25 Azerbaijan BBB- 69 75 83 91 101 7,442 7,990 8,740 9,549 10,491 43.6 41.5 40.1 38 35.8 Bahamas, The BBB 8 8 9 9 10 23,052 23,714 24,466 25,362 26,291 14.4 11.9 14.1 16.4 16.7 Bahrain BBB 30 33 36 39 42 24,595 25,790 27,264 28,740 30,441 26.8 29.1 29.8 30 30.3 Bangladesh BB- 112 133 148 167 196 725 848 931 1,038 1,202 26.1 28.7 28.9 28.9 29.2 Barbados BB- 4 4 5 5 5 15,022 15,485 16,156 16,896 17,755 9.2 8.2 6.8 7.1 6.1 Belarus B- 64 73 80 90 99 6,721 7,724 8,527 9,555 10,519 31 29.4 31.1 31.9 33 Belgium AA 483 507 521 528 551 43,760 45,633 46,630 46,988 48,734 18.4 17.7 18.4 19.4 19.3 Belize B- 2 2 2 2 2 4,660 4,646 4,696 4,750 4,810 12.2 15 14.2 13.4 12.5 Bermuda AA- 5 5 6 6 6 85,044 84,873 86,985 89,149 91,366 14.1 23.9 13 13.1 13.1 Bolivia BB- 27 29 32 35 39 2,488 2,673 2,874 3,090 3,322 26.1 23.1 22.9 22.7 22.6 Bosnia and Herzegovina B 17 18 19 19 21 4,410 4,713 4,862 5,061 5,414 8 10.4 11.3 11.6 12.3 Botswana A- 15 16 17 18 20 7,253 7,851 8,328 8,763 9,243 30.1 31.2 32 31.8 30.8 Brazil BBB 2,248 2,125 2,177 2,293 2,463 11,437 10,698 10,873 11,358 12,104 15.8 14.6 15.1 15.6 16.2 Bulgaria BBB 51 53 55 57 60 7,002 7,277 7,531 7,934 8,393 20.1 22.8 21.9 21.2 21 Burkina Faso B 11 12 13 14 15 652 721 757 787 847 20.6 19 18.6 18.8 18.3 Cambodia B 14 16 17 19 22 944 1,038 1,141 1,260 1,391 7.2 7.8 8.4 8.8 9.3 Cameroon B 26 30 31 33 36 1,220 1,336 1,381 1,419 1,505 15.6 15.8 15.5 15.1 15 Canada AAA 1,821 1,825 1,900 2,058 2,148 52,409 51,911 53,463 57,285 59,130 20.7 20.5 21.1 21.3 21.2 Cape Verde B 2 2 2 2 2 3,559 3,788 3,932 4,148 4,386 41 43.9 44.5 45.2 45.8 Chile AA- 268 279 288 307 327 15,385 15,829 16,164 17,078 18,029 20.6 19.9 20.9 21.7 22.6 China AA- 8,384 9,181 10,520 12,103 13,884 6,088 6,636 7,568 8,666 9,895 48 49.7 50.5 49.7 48.9 Colombia BBB 370 405 435 471 509 7,608 8,233 8,726 9,318 10,071 20.4 20.5 20.8 21.2 21.6 Congo B+ 14 16 18 20 22 3,149 3,611 3,944 4,183 4,558 41.9 46 49.5 47.2 47.7 Congo, DR B- 20 24 29 36 43 280 337 398 472 560 6.4 6.1 7 7.9 9.2 Cook Islands B+ 0 0 0 0 0 20,857 21,830 23,938 25,776 26,564 20.3 21.6 22.2 21.4 23.5 Costa Rica BB 45 50 50 49 50 9,659 10,488 10,409 9,999 10,150 14.9 15.1 15.3 15.2 15.8 Croatia BB 56 58 59 61 64 13,162 13,518 13,835 14,319 15,140 18.3 18.6 18.3 18.1 18.2 Economic Data
  • 4. 4Data as of 24th March 2014 © Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, 2014 e--Estimate. f--Forecast. LT FC--Long-term foreign currency. N/A--Not applicable. Table 1 Sovereign Risk Indicators: Economic Data Nominal GDP (bil. US$) Per capita GDP (US$) Savings/GDP (%) LT FC rating 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f Curacao A- 3 3 3 3 4 22,619 22,947 23,509 24,319 25,158 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Cyprus B- 23 22 21 21 21 26,411 25,312 24,317 23,848 24,424 7.1 10.2 11.2 10.4 10.9 Czech Republic AA- 196 197 205 220 234 18,699 18,722 19,419 20,885 22,112 21.8 20.9 21.4 21.7 21.9 Denmark AAA 315 331 337 342 358 56,476 59,072 59,881 60,742 63,313 23.3 22.5 22.3 22.2 22.1 Dominican Republic B+ 59 61 63 66 69 5,775 5,872 6,031 6,225 6,425 9.1 11.4 12.8 13.2 13.1 Ecuador B 86 92 98 105 111 5,788 6,102 6,403 6,718 7,049 24.7 23.9 24.4 24.5 24.7 Egypt B- 256 265 302 364 433 3,168 3,226 3,617 4,293 5,021 11.3 11.2 9.6 8.7 8.5 El Salvador BB- 24 25 26 27 28 3,788 3,888 4,037 4,200 4,382 8.9 8 9.3 10.4 11.5 Estonia AA- 22 25 26 27 29 16,884 18,618 19,454 20,814 22,276 23.4 24.3 23.6 23.7 24.2 Fiji B 4 4 4 5 5 4,403 4,699 4,960 5,190 5,447 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Finland AAA 247 257 261 263 273 45,754 47,339 47,952 48,051 49,701 18 18.1 17.1 17.7 18 France AA 2,611 2,734 2,754 2,836 2,927 39,994 41,694 41,781 42,813 43,952 17.6 17.2 17.2 17.3 17.6 Gabon BB- 18 20 21 22 23 11,147 11,955 12,308 12,622 13,267 39.3 36.5 33.2 29.8 27.2 Georgia BB- 16 16 17 19 21 3,636 3,739 3,905 4,368 4,850 24.6 29 30.9 32.3 31.9 Germany AAA 3,426 3,636 3,702 3,774 3,913 41,857 44,325 45,044 45,828 47,421 24.7 24.6 24.4 24.5 24.5 Ghana B 41 42 46 52 60 1,605 1,634 1,715 1,914 2,174 17 20.8 22.6 23.6 25.1 Greece B- 249 241 236 241 248 22,376 21,655 21,195 21,681 22,292 10.8 13.9 13.9 14.3 13.8 Grenada SD 1 1 1 1 1 7,628 7,930 8,224 8,550 8,889 -9.6 -9.5 -7.4 -5.7 -5.2 Guatemala BB 50 54 58 63 67 3,333 3,494 3,699 3,891 4,068 11.8 11.8 12 12.5 12.7 Honduras B 18 19 20 21 21 2,179 2,198 2,334 2,364 2,398 15.9 15.5 19.4 19.1 17.1 Hong Kong AAA 263 274 295 317 339 36710 38074 40711 43557 46309 27 25.7 25.9 26.4 26.9 Hungary BB 125 130 135 134 140 12,545 13,135 13,656 13,634 14,297 18.5 20.5 19.9 19.4 18.8 Iceland BBB- 14 15 16 16 17 42,513 45,424 50,031 51,080 53,261 15.2 19.8 17.4 17.1 16.9 India BBB- 1,724 1,763 1,989 2,312 2,669 1,394 1,406 1,565 1,794 2,043 27.4 29.9 29.7 29.9 29.9 Indonesia BB+ 878 874 867 1,027 1,209 3,557 3,507 3,444 4,036 4,705 30.4 32.6 33.3 34.5 36.2 Ireland BBB+ 211 221 228 235 245 45,961 48,182 49,576 50,990 53,004 15.1 14.9 14.3 14.3 14.4 Israel A+ 258 288 306 313 330 33,703 36,974 38,582 38,652 40,007 20.8 23.3 23 23.2 23.6 Italy BBB 2,013 2,072 2,086 2,082 2,138 33,895 34,711 34,849 34,668 35,499 17.6 17.7 18.4 18.8 19.6 Jamaica B- 15 15 14 15 15 5,341 5,240 5,125 5,261 5,441 8.1 10.5 12.1 13.5 15.4 Japan AA- 5,948 4,949 4,716 4,870 5,003 46,744 38,928 37,136 38,388 39,473 22.3 22.2 22.3 22 21.9 Jersey AA+ 6 6 6 6 57,993 59,942 61,341 63,332 N/A N/A N/A N/A Jordan BB- 31 34 36 39 42 4,843 5,139 5,386 5,701 6,065 7.6 15.1 17.5 19.6 21.3 Kazakhstan BBB+ 204 220 204 219 244 12,120 12,913 11,818 12,530 13,829 22.6 23.9 22.7 23.3 24.8 Kenya B+ 41 44 47 49 52 943 998 1,030 1,041 1,080 9.9 13.9 15.9 16.4 16.2 Kenya B+ 34 41 44 46 49 817 943 982 1,015 1,041 10 10 14 16 16 Economic Data
  • 5. 5Data as of 24th March 2014 © Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, 2014 e--Estimate. f--Forecast. LT FC--Long-term foreign currency. N/A--Not applicable. Table 1 Sovereign Risk Indicators: Economic Data Nominal GDP (bil. US$) Per capita GDP (US$) Savings/GDP (%) LT FC rating 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f Korea A+ 1,130 1,215 1,319 1,413 1,531 23,052 24,652 26,620 28,358 30,562 31 33.4 33.4 35.3 36.7 Kuwait AA 183 192 206 219 233 56,366 57,423 59,678 61,763 63,610 58.3 55.4 53.5 50.9 49.6 Latvia BBB+ 28 31 33 34 37 14,019 15,441 16,428 17,267 18,701 20.3 20.3 18.9 19.2 19.2 Lebanon B- 42 44 47 49 53 9,104 9,377 9,657 9,995 10,497 21.3 22 21.7 20.1 18.6 Liechtenstein AAA 5 6 6 6 6 148,918 153,239 159,524 159,930 162,953 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A Lithuania BBB 42 46 50 52 54 14,096 15,455 16,944 17,643 18,385 16.4 18.5 18 18 18 Luxembourg AAA 55 60 63 65 69 105,059 112,374 114,587 118,261 122,054 25.8 25.7 25.8 26 26.1 Macedonia BB- 10 10 11 11 12 4,669 5,002 5,185 5,491 5,830 25.5 24.9 24.6 23.8 24.4 Malaysia A- 305 312 322 348 375 10,422 10,517 10,668 11,345 12,051 31.8 30.7 30 30.5 31 Malta BBB+ 9 10 10 10 11 21,171 22,649 23,265 24,136 25,219 17.2 16.4 17 16.4 16.6 Mexico BBB+ 1,184 1,259 1,334 1,464 1,608 10,572 11,135 11,677 12,692 13,798 21.3 21.4 21.4 21.6 21.7 Mongolia BB- 10 12 13 16 20 3,673 4,071 4,567 5,541 6,692 19 15.7 13.1 16.3 19.2 Montenegro BB- 4 4 5 5 5 6,514 7,056 7,402 7,582 8,079 -0.1 2.2 1.5 2.4 3.6 Montserrat BBB- 0 0 0 0 0 12,181 12,537 12,965 13,472 13,999 -10.8 -13.2 -5.3 -3 -0.9 Morocco BBB- 96 106 116 124 134 2,951 3,219 3,473 3,679 3,920 21.1 23.5 24.3 25.1 25.9 Mozambique B 14 17 19 22 26 570 644 740 830 940 -13.8 -14 -11.8 -10.4 -10.1 Netherlands AA+ 770 803 805 810 836 46,026 47,858 47,773 47,890 49,232 26.5 25.6 25.5 25.9 26.5 New Zealand AA 168 175 175 180 184 37,867 39,153 38,642 39,367 39,738 13.9 15.7 16.3 16.5 16.5 Nigeria BB- 263 298 326 350 382 1,555 1,719 1,827 1,914 2,036 15.9 15.7 14.9 13.8 14.2 Norway AAA 500 511 521 546 573 100,289 101,212 101,856 105,671 109,810 35.1 33.3 34.1 34.2 34.3 Oman A 78 82 87 92 97 21,390 20,683 21,203 21,662 22,084 32.8 32.2 32.9 31.2 29.3 Pakistan B- 225 237 247 257 273 1,256 1,293 1,323 1,351 1,404 11.2 11.6 10.1 10.4 9.8 Panama BBB 36 41 45 50 55 9,992 11,006 12,113 13,269 14,454 17.4 19.2 20.3 20.8 21.3 Papua New Guinea B+ 15 16 19 25 28 2,152 2,214 2,490 3,213 3,595 -17.9 13.2 37.5 42.9 37.4 Paraguay BB- 25 29 31 33 36 3,718 4,261 4,464 4,752 5,016 15.6 20.5 19.8 18.9 18.6 Peru BBB+ 204 218 235 256 279 6,754 7,166 7,618 8,205 8,848 23.1 23.1 24.1 25 25.7 Philippines BBB- 250 272 295 342 396 2,612 2,793 2,976 3,390 3,863 22.2 22.3 22.3 22.3 22 Poland A- 490 517 545 586 622 12,711 13,414 14,127 15,185 16,117 15.4 16.4 16.4 16.1 16 Portugal BB 212 220 220 225 234 20,122 20,965 20,992 21,535 22,339 14 15.4 16.7 17.7 18.2 Qatar AA 192 206 218 232 245 93,831 95,219 95,264 94,861 94,011 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Ras Al Khaimah A 7 7 8 9 9 21,403 22,456 23,568 24,734 25,958 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Romania BB+ 169 190 199 205 217 8,419 9,473 9,978 10,316 10,929 21.9 21.8 22.9 23.1 23 Russia BBB 2,004 2,095 2,082 2,153 2,346 14,016 14,638 14,537 15,023 16,358 25.6 23.3 21.4 20.4 19.8 Rwanda B 7 8 8 9 10 643 673 722 770 824 11.4 13.1 13.3 14.6 15.2 Saudi Arabia AA- 734 745 776 801 831 25,139 25,330 25,846 26,165 26,621 44.8 42.8 40.1 39.2 37.6 Economic Data
  • 6. 6Data as of 24th March 2014 © Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, 2014 e--Estimate. f--Forecast. LT FC--Long-term foreign currency. N/A--Not applicable. Table 1 Sovereign Risk Indicators: Economic Data Nominal GDP (bil. US$) Per capita GDP (US$) Savings/GDP (%) LT FC rating 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f Senegal B+ 14 15 16 17 18 1,023 1,089 1,114 1,139 1,195 12.7 14.6 15.5 15.8 16.1 Serbia BB- 38 43 46 48 51 5,287 5,987 6,439 6,749 7,175 10.8 14.8 16.9 17.3 17.7 Sharjah A 20 21 22 24 25 23,330 24,626 25,995 27,429 28,944 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Singapore AAA 284 296 307 324 336 53,516 54,776 56,032 58,202 59,556 41.5 41.5 40.9 41 41.2 Slovak Republic A 91 96 98 100 104 16,902 17,704 18,061 18,391 19,166 22.3 21.5 21.7 22 22.7 Slovenia A- 45 47 47 47 50 22,076 22,753 22,675 22,866 23,937 21 24.3 25.2 24.7 24.5 South Africa BBB 382 351 349 377 405 7,298 6,637 6,547 7,011 7,471 13.7 13.5 14.1 14.7 15.6 Spain BBB- 1322 1356 1356 1363 1411 28238 29009 29074 29289 30378 18.1 19.3 19.4 20.1 20.1 Sri Lanka B+ 59 68 77 89 101 2,923 3,291 3,707 4,231 4,778 23.8 24.5 25 25.7 25.8 Suriname BB- 5 5 6 6 7 8,582 9,267 10,099 11,005 11,993 9.6 10.1 8.5 8 8.4 Sweden AAA 524 558 589 620 654 55,251 58,387 61,168 63,941 67,034 25 24.5 24.7 24.9 25.4 Switzerland AAA 631 651 684 694 713 78,515 80,151 83,437 83,811 85,226 29.8 29.4 30.2 30.5 30.5 Taiwan AA- 475 489 512 540 569 20,386 20,930 21,857 23,014 24,210 30.4 31.2 30.4 30.4 30.6 Thailand BBB+ 366 387 401 455 489 5,677 5,991 6,190 7,001 7,514 28.1 30.2 29.5 29.3 29.4 Trinidad and Tobago A 24 26 28 30 32 17,873 19,087 20,672 22,261 23,949 16.4 17.2 18.4 19.2 19.8 Turkey BB+ 788 820 747 745 812 10,653 10,951 9,861 9,714 10,459 14.1 12.1 13.7 13.6 14.6 Uganda B 21 22 24 25 28 584 580 609 636 675 16 15.1 14.3 16.1 18.4 Ukraine CCC 174 174 170 184 225 3,819 3,830 3,742 4,076 5,001 10.6 7.7 7.5 8.3 9 United Kingdom AAA 2,484 2,536 2,796 2,918 3,053 39,572 40,208 44,116 45,758 47,601 10.6 9.8 11.1 12.4 13.2 United States of America AA+ 16,245 16,798 17,551 18,440 19,344 51,749 52,989 54,934 57,284 59,630 15.9 16.6 17.6 18.4 18.9 Uruguay BBB- 50 53 57 61 64 14,855 15,723 17,092 18,045 19,168 16.8 18.2 18.8 19.2 19.3 Venezuela B- 382 365 322 300 N/A 12,768 11,990 10,398 9,552 N/A 22.8 23.9 23.2 23.1 N/A Vietnam BB- 156 179 203 230 263 1,755 1,991 2,128 2,271 2,429 30 25 22 20.9 19.6 Zambia B+ 23 24 26 28 32 1,614 1,661 1,703 1,789 1,966 26 24.9 25.8 25.7 26.7 Economic Data
  • 7. 7Data as of 24th March 2014 © Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, 2014 e--Estimate. f--Forecast. LT FC--Long-term foreign currency. N/A--Not applicable. Table 1 Sovereign Risk Indicators: Economic Data Investment/GDP (%) Real GDP (% chg) Real investment (% chg) LT FC rating 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f Abu Dhabi AA N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 5.6 4.2 3.8 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Albania B 43 42.5 42 41.9 41.6 1.3 0.7 2 3 4 2 0.1 2 4.2 5 Andorra A- 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A -1.6 -0.5 0.4 0.7 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Angola BB- 15.2 16.8 17.1 17 16.3 6.8 5.1 8 6.2 5.9 6.8 9.2 11 8 6.8 Argentina CCC+ 21.8 21.1 20.5 19.8 19.2 1.9 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 -4.9 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 Aruba BBB+ 26 25.4 25.4 25.3 25.3 -1.2 2.6 3 3.2 3.2 -1 0.2 3 3 3 Australia AAA 28.1 28.2 28.1 27.7 27.7 3.6 2.6 2.6 2.7 3 11.2 2 3.2 1.4 2.2 Austria AA+ 21.4 20.9 20.8 20.9 20.8 0.9 0.4 1.7 1.8 2 1.6 -1.1 2.5 2.4 2.4 Azerbaijan BBB- 21.9 24.2 25.2 25.5 25.7 2.2 5.8 4 4.2 4.4 7.6 11 7.7 6.1 6 Bahamas, The BBB 31.9 27 27 27 27 1.8 1.7 2 2.5 2.5 18.5 -13.9 2 2.5 2.5 Bahrain BBB 19.5 20.1 21 21.6 22.2 3.4 4.4 4.2 3.9 3.9 29.1 4 6 4 4.5 Bangladesh BB- 26.5 26.8 27 27 27.1 6.2 6 5.9 6.4 6.7 6.5 6.2 6.5 7 6.8 Barbados BB- 14.3 14 14.8 15.3 16 0 -0.5 1 1.5 2 -3.7 -2.4 6.7 4.9 6.6 Belarus B- 33.7 36.4 36.4 37.6 38.8 1.7 1.8 2.5 3 3 -11.3 4.8 4.5 4 3.8 Belgium AA 20.4 19.7 19.4 19 18.8 -0.1 0.3 1.1 1.5 1.4 -2 -2.5 0.6 0.5 1.4 Belize B- 17 17 17 17 17 5.3 1.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Bermuda AA- 0 0 0 0 0 -4.7 -2 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Bolivia BB- 18.7 19.7 20.4 20.6 20.9 5.2 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 2 31.4 8.7 6.5 6.5 Bosnia and Herzegovina B 17.7 18 18.2 18.5 18.6 -1.1 1 2 2.5 3 3.9 3.1 3.8 5.5 5.1 Botswana A- 34.8 31.6 30.8 29.7 29 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.2 12.1 6.3 4.4 2.9 4 Brazil BBB 18.2 18.4 18.7 19 19.2 1 2.3 1.8 2 2.5 -4 6.3 1.5 2.5 3 Bulgaria BBB 21.4 20.7 20.7 21.2 21.5 0 0.6 1.5 1.8 2.2 4 -0.3 1.5 4 4 Burkina Faso B 21.6 23.8 24.5 25.1 24.9 9 6.8 6.8 7 7.5 0.8 6.1 10 9 6 Cambodia B 15.8 15.7 16.2 16.7 17.1 7.3 7 7.3 7.4 7.4 7 8.5 12 12 12 Cameroon B 19.2 19.6 19.3 19 18.7 4.6 5 5.2 5.2 5.4 1.4 6.3 4 4 4 Canada AAA 24.1 23.7 23.8 23.8 23.8 1.7 2 2.5 2.9 2.3 4.3 0.1 2.5 2.9 2.3 Cape Verde B 52.9 53.8 54.1 52.7 52.6 2.5 1.5 4.4 4.6 5 5.6 2.7 3.7 3.7 6.3 Chile AA- 24.1 24.1 24.1 24.1 24.1 5.6 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.3 12.3 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.3 China AA- 45.7 47.6 47.7 47.2 46.4 7.7 7.7 7.4 7.2 7 7.8 6.2 6.2 5.8 5.1 Colombia BBB 23.5 23.7 24 24.3 24.7 4 4 4 4.3 4.3 5.7 4.4 5.5 6.3 6.3 Congo B+ 43.2 48.6 49 48 47.5 3.8 5.5 5.5 6.5 7.5 28 21 12 14.8 15.1 Congo, DR B- 15.1 16.2 16.8 17.2 17.7 7.2 8.6 7.8 7.5 7.5 11.7 15 10.4 9.3 9.3 Cook Islands B+ 0 0 0 0 0 4.4 1.1 0.9 1.2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Costa Rica BB 20.2 20.2 20.2 20.2 20.2 5.1 3.5 3.9 4.2 4.2 8.1 3.5 3.9 4.2 4.2 Croatia BB 18.6 18.4 18.4 19.1 19.6 -1.9 -1 -0.9 0.8 2.4 -4.8 -1 1.2 4 4 Economic Data
  • 8. 8Data as of 24th March 2014 © Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, 2014 e--Estimate. f--Forecast. LT FC--Long-term foreign currency. N/A--Not applicable. Table 1 Sovereign Risk Indicators: Economic Data Investment/GDP (%) Real GDP (% chg) Real investment (% chg) LT FC rating 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f Curacao A- N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.5 -0.5 0.5 1.5 1.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Cyprus B- 13.9 11.6 10.1 9.5 9.5 -2.4 -5.4 -4.6 -1 0.8 -18.3 -21.6 -18.3 -7 0 Czech Republic AA- 23.1 22.1 22.6 22.9 22.9 -1 -1.1 1.9 2.5 2.7 -4.5 -4.8 3.6 4 3.1 Denmark AAA 17.4 17.2 17.2 17.2 17.3 -0.4 0.4 1.4 1.8 2 0.8 0.8 1 1.2 1.8 Dominican Rep. B+ 16.3 16.5 17.3 17.7 17.7 3.9 3 4 4.5 4.5 4.3 4.5 10 6 4 Ecuador B 24.9 24.9 24.9 24.9 24.9 5 4 4 4 4 1.7 3 3.2 4 3 Egypt B- 15.6 13.8 12.3 11 10.2 2.2 2.1 3 4 4 0.7 -7.8 1 3 4 El Salvador BB- 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.2 1.9 1.9 2.3 2.5 2.6 -1.2 1.9 2.3 2.5 2.6 Estonia AA- 25.2 25.3 25.7 26 26.5 3.9 0.8 2.8 3.5 3.5 10.9 1.1 5.4 5.4 6.2 Fiji B N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.7 3 2.2 2.3 2.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Finland AAA 19.7 18.9 18.7 19 19.3 -1 -1.4 0.6 1.2 1.4 -0.8 -4.6 -1 2.5 2.7 France AA 19.8 19.3 19.3 19.6 19.9 0 0.3 0.7 1.4 1.5 -1.2 -2.1 0.9 3 3 Gabon BB- 20.6 20.5 21.2 21.7 22.2 5.3 6.1 6 6 6 8 7 7.7 7.3 7.1 Georgia BB- 36.3 35.1 36.4 38.5 39.3 6.2 2.5 4.3 5 6 16.3 -0.3 7 12.5 10.5 Germany AAA 17.7 17.3 17.5 17.8 18.3 0.7 0.4 1.8 2 1.4 -2.1 -0.7 3.6 4 4.3 Ghana B 29 34.3 35.6 35.2 35.2 7.9 7.4 7.5 7.5 7 20.9 20 15 9.7 10 Greece B- 13.1 13.2 13.2 13.4 13.6 -6.4 -3.9 -0.3 1.9 2.3 -19.2 -4.7 -1 2.6 2.6 Grenada SD 17.6 16.9 16.3 15.6 15 -0.8 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Guatemala BB 14.7 14.9 15.1 15.3 15.5 3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.4 4.2 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 Honduras B 25.4 25.7 24.5 24.6 25.3 3.3 3 2.5 2.8 3 3 3 2.5 2.8 3 Hong Kong AAA 25.4 23.7 24.1 24.1 23.8 1.6 2.9 3.6 4.1 3.6 6.8 3.3 2.7 2.9 2.5 Hungary BB 17.4 18.1 18.4 18.7 19 -1.7 1.1 2.2 1.8 1.5 -3.7 5.9 3.8 2.5 2 Iceland BBB- 14.6 13.6 14 14.4 14.6 1.5 3.3 2.9 2.9 3 5.5 -3.5 7.2 6.7 6.2 India BBB- 32.5 31.5 31.5 31.5 31.6 5 4.8 6 6.3 6.5 0.8 1.8 5.4 6.2 6.4 Indonesia BB+ 33.2 35.9 37 38.1 39.3 6.2 5.7 5.6 5.8 6 9.8 10.8 7.9 7.6 8.1 Ireland BBB+ 10.6 10.5 10.4 10.5 10.7 0.2 0 1.8 2.4 2.6 -1 -1.5 3.2 3 4.5 Israel A+ 20.4 20.8 20.7 20.8 20.8 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 4.2 3.5 4 4 Italy BBB 18 17.3 17.4 17.6 17.8 -2.4 -1.9 0.5 1 0.9 -8 -4.7 0.5 1 1 Jamaica B- 21 21 21 21 21 0 1 1.5 2 2 0 1 1.5 2 2 Japan AA- 21.3 21.5 21.8 21.9 22 0.7 2.2 0.6 1 1.2 1.4 3 2.5 2 2.2 Jersey AA+ 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A -3.7 0.5 1 1.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Jordan BB- 26 27.2 28.4 29.2 29.8 2.8 3.3 3.5 4 4.5 11.2 4.5 5.5 6 4.7 Kazakhstan BBB+ 22.3 23.8 24.3 24.6 24.6 5 6 5 5.5 6 9.1 9 7 6 5 Kenya B+ 20.4 23.3 24.4 24.9 24.9 4.6 5 5.4 5.5 5.4 11.5 14 7 7.5 7 Kenya B+ 20 20 23 24 25 4.4 4.6 5 5.4 5.5 12.6 11.5 14 7 7.5 Economic Data
  • 9. 9Data as of 24th March 2014 © Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, 2014 e--Estimate. f--Forecast. LT FC--Long-term foreign currency. N/A--Not applicable. Table 1 Sovereign Risk Indicators: Economic Data Investment/GDP (%) Real GDP (% chg) Real investment (% chg) LT FC rating 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f Korea A+ 26.7 27.6 28.2 29.1 30.3 2 2.8 3.5 3.8 3.8 -1.7 3.8 3.2 4 5 Kuwait AA 15.1 16.6 17.1 18 18.9 8.3 2 2.8 2.5 2 2 4 3 5 3 Latvia BBB+ 22.8 21.1 21.2 21.6 22.2 5.2 4.1 4.2 4.5 4.5 8.7 -4.3 4 5.4 6.1 Lebanon B- 25.2 25.1 25 25.1 25.3 1.5 1.5 1.5 2 3.5 0.8 1 1 1.8 4 Liechtenstein AAA 0 0 0 0 0 -0.3 1.7 2 2.1 1.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Lithuania BBB 16.7 18.3 19.1 19.7 20.1 3.7 3.3 3.6 3.8 4 -3.6 12.8 7.8 7.9 7.2 Luxembourg AAA 19.3 19.4 19.2 19.3 19.4 -0.2 2.1 2.3 2 2.4 3.5 3 2.5 3 3.3 Macedonia BB- 28.6 29 29.8 30.2 30.6 -0.2 2.2 2.5 2.8 3 16 6 7 6.5 6.5 Malaysia A- 25.7 26.9 27.3 27.6 27.9 5.6 4.7 5.2 5.6 5.7 19.9 8.2 8 7.1 7.3 Malta BBB+ 15.1 14.5 15.2 15.3 15.4 0.7 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.8 -2 -3.8 7.5 4 2.5 Mexico BBB+ 22.5 22.9 23.3 23.6 23.9 3.9 1.1 3 3.5 4 4.6 -1.6 4 6 7.7 Mongolia BB- 51.7 43.1 40.4 38.6 37.9 12.3 11.6 10 9.5 9 28.2 2 6 6 7 Montenegro BB- 18.5 17.8 18.5 19.3 20.4 -2.5 2.6 2.6 2.8 3 -2 -1.8 6.7 7.5 9 Montserrat BBB- 25.2 24.6 24.4 24.4 24.4 1.4 1 1.5 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Morocco BBB- 31.4 31.4 31 30.3 29.5 4.2 4.6 4 4.9 5.2 2.7 4.4 3 3 3 Mozambique B 22.9 23 24.3 25.7 26.9 7.3 8 8 8 8 18.3 11.2 12.8 12 12.1 Netherlands AA+ 17 15.6 15.8 16 16.3 -1.3 -0.8 0.8 1.3 1.5 -4 -4.9 4 2.4 2 New Zealand AA 18.5 20 20.8 22 22.1 2.8 2.2 3.1 2.6 2 4.1 11.1 10.8 10.2 4.1 Nigeria BB- 8.2 8.6 8.9 9 9 6.5 6.1 5.9 6.2 5.8 -19.9 9.5 8 5.5 3.5 Norway AAA 20.7 22.7 23.5 23.7 23.9 2.9 0.6 2 1.8 1.8 8.3 8.7 3 2.8 2.8 Oman A 22.3 23.1 23.8 24.4 25.2 6 5 4 4 4 7 6.5 5.9 5.5 5.8 Pakistan B- 13.3 12.6 12.2 11.9 11.8 4 6.1 3 3.6 4 1.5 0.8 2 3.5 4 Panama BBB 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.4 10.7 7.5 7 6.5 6 10.7 7.5 7 6.5 6 Papua New Guinea B+ 32.2 40 39.3 30.8 28 8.1 5.5 6.2 20.6 3.6 0 0 0 0 0 Paraguay BB- 15.2 16.3 16.8 17.2 17.3 -1.2 12 4.5 4.5 4.5 -7.7 21 8 7 5 Peru BBB+ 26.6 27.1 27.9 28.3 28.7 6.3 5.1 6 6.4 6.5 14.9 10 9 8 8 Philippines BBB- 19.4 20.2 20 20.1 20 6.8 7.2 6.6 6 6.1 10.4 11.7 7.9 6.5 7.2 Poland A- 19.2 18.7 18.5 18.8 19.2 1.9 1.5 2.8 3.5 4 -1.7 -0.8 2.8 5.5 6.2 Portugal BB 16 14.8 14.9 15.1 15.3 -3.2 -1.6 0.8 1.6 2.2 -14.4 -8 1.2 3 3 Qatar AA N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 6.2 6 5 5 4.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Ras Al Khaimah A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 10.2 7 6.5 6.5 6.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Romania BB+ 26.3 22.9 23.7 24.1 24.6 0.7 2.2 2.2 2.5 2.8 4.9 0.3 4.9 5.4 5.5 Russia BBB 22 21.5 20.3 20.6 20.6 3.4 1.3 1.2 2.2 2.8 6.4 -0.3 -3.5 5 3.5 Rwanda B 22.9 23.2 22.8 22.7 22.6 8 6.6 7.5 7 7 16.2 8 8 8 8 Saudi Arabia AA- 22.3 23.3 24.6 24.8 25.2 5.8 3.8 4.6 4.3 4.3 8 6 7 3 4 Economic Data
  • 10. 10Data as of 24th March 2014 © Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, 2014 e--Estimate. f--Forecast. LT FC--Long-term foreign currency. N/A--Not applicable. Table 1 Sovereign Risk Indicators: Economic Data Investment/GDP (%) Real GDP (% chg) Real investment (% chg) LT FC rating 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f Senegal B+ 23 23.6 23.9 24.2 24.4 3.5 4 4.5 4.8 4.9 4.7 6 6 5.7 5.6 Serbia BB- 21.4 20.2 20.4 21 21.4 -1.5 2.4 0.9 2.1 2.5 14.4 -3 0.5 5 3 Sharjah A 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 3.5 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Singapore AAA 24.1 23.1 24.6 24.9 25.1 1.9 4.1 3.7 3.9 3.5 8.7 -2.7 7.2 5.3 4.8 Slovak Republic A 20.1 19.1 19.4 20.1 20.9 1.8 0.9 2 2.5 3 -10.5 -4.3 0.3 2 2.5 Slovenia A- 17.8 17.9 17.7 17.4 18 -2.5 -1.1 -0.7 0.9 2.1 -8.2 0.2 -1.8 0.6 3.9 South Africa BBB 18.9 19.3 19.3 19.9 20.7 2.5 1.9 2.7 3 3.4 4.4 4.7 5.9 6.6 6.5 Spain BBB- 19.2 17.9 17.7 17.7 17.6 -1.6 -1.2 0.8 1.4 1.5 -7 -7 0.6 2 1 Sri Lanka B+ 30.6 30 29.9 30 30 6.4 6.5 7 7.2 7.3 10.7 4.3 5.3 5.8 5.8 Suriname BB- 0 0 0 0 0 4.5 4.5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Sweden AAA 19 18.3 18.3 18.4 18.8 0.9 1.5 2.6 3.1 3.4 3.3 -1.3 3 4.8 6 Switzerland AAA 20.1 20.1 20.4 20.8 21.3 1.1 2 2.2 2.5 1.9 -0.4 1.8 3 3.7 4 Taiwan AA- 19.7 19.4 19 18.8 18.7 1.5 2.1 3.7 3.9 3.8 -4 5.3 1.3 2.8 3 Thailand BBB+ 28.5 28 27.7 27.4 27.3 6.5 2.9 2.7 5.1 4.4 13.2 -1.9 1.5 4.2 3.9 Trinidad and Tobago A 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.4 1.2 1.6 2.7 2.6 2.5 1.2 1.6 2.7 2.6 2.5 Turkey BB+ 20.3 20 18.4 18.2 18.4 2.2 3.6 1.8 2 3.4 -2.7 4.5 -6 0.2 3.8 Uganda B 24.9 26.4 27.4 28.4 28.9 2.8 5.8 6.2 6.5 7 5.3 9 9 9 8.5 Ukraine CCC 18.8 16.8 14.5 14.9 15.3 0.2 -1 -2 2.5 3.5 0.9 -9 -12 3 3 United Kingdom AAA 14.4 13.9 14.4 14.9 15.3 0.3 1.8 2.7 2.4 2.7 0.7 -0.5 6 6 6 United States of America AA+ 18.6 18.9 19.5 20.5 21.1 2.8 1.9 3 3.3 3.2 5.6 3 6.5 8.9 6.4 Uruguay BBB- 22.1 22.1 22.1 22.1 22.1 3.9 3 3.2 3.5 3.5 14.2 3 3.2 3.5 3.5 Venezuela B- 19.9 19.3 18.7 18.2 N/A 5.6 1 1 2 N/A 15.8 0 3 3 N/A Vietnam BB- 24.2 23.3 22 21 20.2 5.3 5.1 6 6.3 6.5 1.9 9 7.8 6.4 7.9 Zambia B+ 22.5 24 25 25.5 26.2 7.3 6.4 6.5 7.2 7.3 5.2 7.7 7.8 5.8 7 Economic Data
  • 11. 11Data as of 24th March 2014 © Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, 2014 e--Estimate. f--Forecast. LT FC--Long-term foreign currency. N/A--Not applicable. Table 1 Sovereign Risk Indicators: Economic Data Unemployment rate (% of workforce) CPI (avg % chg) DC claims on resident nongov. sector (% chg) LT FC rating 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f Abu Dhabi AA 3.2 3 3 3 3 1.1 1.3 1 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Albania B 13 15 12.8 12.5 12.3 1.9 2 2.7 2.9 3.1 2.4 -5 -3 0 5 Andorra A- 3.5 3.2 3 2.7 2.5 1.1 0 1.1 1.5 1.8 -0.4 -0.5 0 1 1.5 Angola BB- N/A 35 35 35 35 10.3 8.8 9.5 10 9 23.6 10 20 25 25 Argentina CCC+ 6.9 7.5 7.8 7.8 7.8 10.8 27 30 30 30 31.2 29 29 29 29 Aruba BBB+ N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.6 -1.5 3.3 2.4 2.3 3.4 8.7 3.8 4.8 8.8 Australia AAA 5.2 5.7 5.8 5.8 5.5 2.3 2.3 2.8 2.7 2.5 8.2 4.5 5 6 6 Austria AA+ 4.3 4.9 5 5 4.9 2.6 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.8 0.9 -0.6 1 2 2.5 Azerbaijan BBB- 5.2 5.2 5.8 6.4 6.4 1.1 2.4 4.7 6 8.5 27.6 25 16 11 11 Bahamas, The BBB 14 13.5 13.3 13 13 2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 -0.1 3.7 4 4.5 4.5 Bahrain BBB 4.2 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 2.8 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 6.2 8 9 10 11 Bangladesh BB- 2 2 2 2 2 6.2 7.5 6.2 6 6 16.4 8.3 17 18 18 Barbados BB- 11.6 11.8 11.5 11.3 11 4.5 4 3.8 3.5 3.5 5.8 3.5 4.2 7.5 4.6 Belarus B- 0.5 0.5 1 1 1 59.2 18.3 15 12 10 37 31.4 27 25 25 Belgium AA 7.6 8.4 8.5 8.2 7.5 2.6 1.2 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.2 2.5 2 2 2 Belize B- 14.4 12.1 N/A N/A N/A 1.3 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.7 2.7 0.7 2.5 2.5 2.5 Bermuda AA- 8 7 7 6 6 2.4 1.8 2 2 2 -4.1 -2.6 0 3 3 Bolivia BB- 4 4 4 4 4 4.6 5 5 5 5 20.2 9.6 9.9 9 9.3 Bosnia and Herzegovina B 28 27.5 27.7 27.5 27 1.8 0.3 1 1.5 2 3 2.4 3 3.2 4 Botswana A- 21 21 21 21 21 7.5 5.9 6.5 6.5 6.8 20.7 16.8 20 20 20 Brazil BBB 5.5 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.8 5.9 6.3 6 5.5 16.8 14.2 12.9 12.9 12.9 Bulgaria BBB 12.3 12.9 12.4 12 11.8 2.4 0.4 0.5 2 2 2.8 0.3 2 3 3.5 Burkina Faso B N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 3.8 3 2.7 2.6 2.5 24.1 20 20 20 20 Cambodia B N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 2.9 3.2 4.3 5 5 48.2 32 25 22 20 Cameroon B N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 2.9 2 3 3 3 2.8 10 10 10 10 Canada AAA 7.3 7.3 7.1 6.7 6.5 1.5 0.9 1.8 2 2 6.6 6.1 5.5 4 4 Cape Verde B 10 10 9 9 9 2.6 1.5 2.7 2.8 2.5 -0.1 0.2 5.8 5.8 6.9 Chile AA- 7.3 7 7 7 7 3 2.1 2.8 2.2 2.2 12.2 9.3 10.1 9.6 9.5 China AA- 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 2.6 2.7 3 3 2.7 15.6 14.7 14.5 14 14 Colombia BBB 10.5 10 10 10 10 3.2 3 3 3 3 15.7 12.1 10.4 11.1 11.1 Congo B+ N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 5.6 5.5 5 4 3.5 27.4 30 30 30 30 Congo, DR B- 48.1 48.1 48.1 48.1 48.1 9.3 1 5 5 5 35 35 35 35 35 Cook Islands B+ N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.8 2.6 3.7 3.4 3.1 -5.8 -0.2 1.5 1.5 1.5 Costa Rica BB 7.5 7 7 7 7 4 5.8 4.6 4.5 4 16.5 8.4 11.7 12 12 Croatia BB 15.8 16.3 16.5 16 15 3.4 2.2 1.8 3 3 -3.9 -2.5 1 3 8 Economic Data DC--Depository corporation
  • 12. 12Data as of 24th March 2014 © Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, 2014 e--Estimate. f--Forecast. LT FC--Long-term foreign currency. N/A--Not applicable. Table 1 Sovereign Risk Indicators: Economic Data Unemployment rate (% of workforce) CPI (avg % chg) DC claims on resident nongov. sector (% chg) LT FC rating 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f Curacao A- 10 10 10 10 10 2.8 2 2 2 2 4.6 4.4 4.4 4.6 4.4 Cyprus B- 11.9 16 19.5 20 19.1 3.1 0.4 0.4 1.2 1.5 2 -10 -5 -2 1 Czech Republic AA- 7 7 7.3 7.1 6.6 3.5 1.3 1.3 2.2 2.2 2.5 3.8 3.5 4 4 Denmark AAA 7.5 7 7.1 7 6.8 2.4 0.4 1.5 1.8 2 0.3 1.3 2.8 2 2 Dominican Rep. B+ 14.4 14.7 14.3 14 14 3.7 5 4.5 4.5 4.5 5.7 10.6 9.9 9.9 9.9 Ecuador B 4.9 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.1 3 2.5 2.5 2.5 12.3 9 7 6.5 6.5 Egypt B- 12.7 13.3 14.5 14 13 8.6 6.9 12 12 11 8.1 10 10 10 11 El Salvador BB- 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 0.8 1.4 2.2 2.2 2.4 3.4 6.9 6.9 7.9 8.9 Estonia AA- 10 8.6 8.3 8.1 7.8 3.9 2.8 2.3 3 3.1 -0.3 2.5 2.8 3.5 3.5 Fiji B 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 3.4 3 3.4 3.3 3.3 5.5 5.8 6 27.4 21.8 Finland AAA 7.7 8.2 8.3 8.2 8 3.2 2.2 1.9 1.8 1.8 4.4 3.6 4.2 4.5 5 France AA 10.2 10.8 11 11 10 2.2 1 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.6 -0.2 2.5 3 3 Gabon BB- N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 2.7 1.3 2 2.5 2.5 10.2 7.7 7.9 8.1 -11.1 Georgia BB- 15 15 15 14 13 -1.4 2.4 3 4 5 13.3 18.5 13 15 15 Germany AAA 5.5 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.4 2.2 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.5 -0.5 1 2 2 2 Ghana B 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.2 9.2 11.6 10 9.5 9.5 37.1 38.4 21.7 28 16.7 Greece B- 24.3 27.3 27 26 25 1 -0.9 -0.6 0.3 0.5 -8 -3.9 -0.5 1 1 Grenada SD N/A 33.5 N/A N/A N/A 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 0.1 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 Guatemala BB N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 3.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 19.5 17 15 13 N/A Honduras B 4.4 4.4 N/A N/A N/A 5.2 5 6 6 6 16.9 2.8 8.7 8.9 9.2 Hong Kong AAA 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 4.1 4.4 4 4.1 4.1 3.4 16 10 9.5 9.5 Hungary BB 10.9 10.2 9.4 8.9 8.9 5.7 1.7 3.4 4 3.7 -13.5 -5.4 0 2 3 Iceland BBB- 6 5.4 4.6 4.2 4 5.2 3.9 3.2 3.1 3.3 -1.1 1.9 3 3 3 India BBB- N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 9.3 10.9 7.8 7.3 7.3 13.6 14.5 16 17 17 Indonesia BB+ 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.5 6.5 4.3 7 6.3 5.3 5.5 22.8 20.8 25 23 23 Ireland BBB+ 14.7 13.1 12.4 11.8 11.4 2 0.5 1.2 2 2 -6.2 -7.4 -2.1 0.1 0.5 Israel A+ 6.9 6.6 6.7 6.4 6.4 1.7 1.5 1.3 2 2.5 4 5 6 7 7 Italy BBB 10.7 12.2 12.7 12.5 12 3.3 1.3 0.7 1 1.2 0.3 -4 1 1 2 Jamaica B- 13.7 12 12 12 12 6.9 10 10 9 8 11.3 11.1 11.7 11.2 10.2 Japan AA- 4.3 4 3.7 3.7 3.7 0 0.3 2.5 1.8 1.8 -23.1 2.3 2.1 2 2 Jersey AA+ 5 2.7 2.5 2.5 N/A 2.1 3 3.1 3.5 N/A -4.8 1 1.5 1.5 N/A Jordan BB- 12.2 12.8 12.2 11.8 11.8 4.8 5.5 3.7 3.9 4 5.9 7 8 9 10 Kazakhstan BBB+ 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.1 5.8 6 6 6 11.5 12.8 10 15 15 Kenya B+ N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 9.4 5.7 6.5 5.8 6.8 11.8 18.2 15 15 15 Economic Data DC--Depository corporation
  • 13. 13Data as of 24th March 2014 © Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, 2014 e--Estimate. f--Forecast. LT FC--Long-term foreign currency. N/A--Not applicable. Table 1 Sovereign Risk Indicators: Economic Data Unemployment rate (% of workforce) CPI (avg % chg) DC claims on resident nongov. sector (% chg) LT FC rating 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f Korea A+ 3.2 3.1 3.5 3.5 3.5 2.2 1.3 2.2 3 2.9 4.2 4 6 6 6 Kuwait AA 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.8 2.7 3.5 4 4 2.9 6.5 6 6 6 Latvia BBB+ 15 11.9 10.7 10 9.5 2.3 0 2 2.5 3 -9.9 -5.3 -1.5 0 1 Lebanon B- 13 13 12 10 10 4 4 5 4 4 10.6 9 8 10 10 Liechtenstein AAA 2.4 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.2 -0.7 -0.3 0.5 1 1 -7.7 0 2 3 N/A Lithuania BBB 13.4 11.8 10.5 10 9.5 3.2 1.2 1.4 2.2 2.3 1.9 -4.7 2.3 3.5 4 Luxembourg AAA 5.1 5.9 5.8 5.5 5.3 2.9 1.7 1.5 2 2.1 0.8 0.2 2 2 3 Macedonia BB- 31 30 29 28 27 3.3 3.5 2.5 2 2 5.3 3.5 4 5 6.5 Malaysia A- 3 3 3 3 3 1.7 2.1 3.2 3.3 2.9 12 10 8 7 7 Malta BBB+ 6.4 6.5 6.3 6.2 6.2 3.2 1 2 2 2 1.8 -0.4 2.5 3 3.5 Mexico BBB+ 5 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.1 3.8 3.9 3.5 3.5 8.4 11.6 11.1 11.2 11.3 Mongolia BB- 8.2 5 4.9 4.8 4.8 15 9.7 10 10 10 25.7 63.6 30 30 30 Montenegro BB- 15.7 17 16 15 14.5 4 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.8 -3.1 1.2 2.7 3.5 4.5 Montserrat BBB- N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 4.8 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 9.9 -9.3 4.1 4.6 4.6 Morocco BBB- 9 9 8.8 8.5 8.5 1.3 2 2.3 2.3 2.3 5 3 8 8 8.1 Mozambique B N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1 6.5 7 7 7 19.7 20 20 24 24 Netherlands AA+ 5.3 6.7 7.3 7.2 7 2.8 2.6 1 1.2 1.3 0.4 -4.4 -1 1.5 2 New Zealand AA 6.8 6.4 5.7 4.9 4.8 2.2 0.8 1.6 2 2.1 4.3 3.6 4 4.3 4.3 Nigeria BB- 24 24 24 24 24 12.2 8.5 9.8 9.7 10 6.6 16.7 20 20 20 Norway AAA 3.2 3.5 3.5 3.8 3.8 0.7 2.1 1.9 2.1 2 5.9 6.7 5.8 5.5 5.5 Oman A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 2.9 1.8 2.2 2.4 2.5 15.4 10 12 12 12 Pakistan B- 6 6 6 6 6 11 7.4 7.9 9 7 -1.2 2.7 5 6 7 Panama BBB 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 5.7 4 4.3 4.3 4.2 15 11.8 11.6 11.1 10.5 Papua New Guinea B+ N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 2.2 4 6 6 6 14.4 7.4 13 17.5 17.5 Paraguay BB- 5.8 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 3.7 4.5 4.4 5 5 12.6 17.6 8.9 9.5 9.5 Peru BBB+ 7.5 7 6.5 6 6 3.7 3 2.7 2.5 2.5 12.2 14.2 11.7 11.5 11.3 Philippines BBB- 7 7.1 6 6 6 3.2 3 4.1 3.5 3.7 14.4 15.9 15 14 15 Poland A- 10.1 10.3 10.7 10 10 3.7 0.8 1.7 2.3 2.5 2.4 4.5 5 6 7 Portugal BB 15.9 16.5 16.9 16.6 16 2.8 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.5 -7 -5.5 -2 0 1 Qatar AA 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.9 3.1 4 4 4.5 20.9 12.5 15 15 15 Ras Al Khaimah A 3 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 -0.6 1 1.5 1.5 1.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Romania BB+ 7 7.3 7.2 7 6.8 3.4 3.2 2.9 2.7 2.7 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A Russia BBB 5.5 5.4 6 5.5 5.5 5.1 6.8 6.8 5.7 5.5 19.7 17.5 10.5 15 13 Rwanda B N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 6.3 5 5 5.5 5.5 33.7 10.8 16 16 16 Saudi Arabia AA- 5.5 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.5 2.9 3.4 3.2 3 3 16.7 12.4 12 12 12 Economic Data DC--Depository corporation
  • 14. 14Data as of 24th March 2014 © Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, 2014 e--Estimate. f--Forecast. LT FC--Long-term foreign currency. N/A--Not applicable. Table 1 Sovereign Risk Indicators: Economic Data Unemployment rate (% of workforce) CPI (avg % chg) DC claims on resident nongov. sector (% chg) LT FC rating 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f Senegal B+ N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.4 0.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 5.6 10 12 14 14 Serbia BB- 22.4 26 27 25 25 7.3 7.7 4.7 5.2 5.5 9.3 -4.7 -2 4 10 Sharjah A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 3.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Singapore AAA 2 1.9 2 2.2 2.1 4.5 2.4 2.7 2.9 2.6 13.3 15.5 6.4 6.8 6.1 Slovak Republic A 14 14.2 14.2 13.2 12.8 3.7 1.5 0.7 1.6 1.7 3.2 5.4 5.5 6 6 Slovenia A- 8.9 10.2 10.9 10.5 10.2 2.8 1.9 1.7 2 2.1 -5.2 -16.9 1.5 2 2 South Africa BBB 24.5 24.1 25.8 25.7 25.6 5.6 5.2 5.7 5.4 5.4 10.7 6 8 10 13 Spain BBB- 25 26.4 25.7 24.5 25 2.4 1.5 0.1 0.6 1.2 -9.9 -10.1 -4 -0.5 0.5 Sri Lanka B+ 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 7.5 6.9 7 7 7 19 20 20 20 20 Suriname BB- 8.5 8.5 8 8 8 5.5 5 5.5 5.5 5.5 8.8 10.6 10.5 10.5 10.5 Sweden AAA 8 8 7.8 7.5 7.2 0.9 0.4 0.9 1.7 2 3.7 3.5 4 4 5 Switzerland AAA 2.9 3.2 3 2.9 3.3 -0.7 -0.2 0.3 1 1 5.1 1 2.5 3 3 Taiwan AA- 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 1.9 0.8 1.4 1.6 1.5 5.1 5.2 6.5 6 6 Thailand BBB+ 0.7 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 3 2.2 2.4 2.7 2.7 14.2 10 8 8 8 Trinidad and Tobago A 5.4 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.3 9.3 5.5 5.5 5 5 14 9.4 10.5 9.9 9.8 Turkey BB+ 9 9.4 12 11 10 8.9 7.5 9.8 7 6.5 19 33.4 10.4 4 5 Uganda B N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 14 6 8 7 6 16.1 15 15 15 15 Ukraine CCC 8.1 8.6 8.6 8.4 8.4 0.6 -0.3 10 8 8 3 6.4 5 5 5 United Kingdom AAA 7.9 7.6 6.8 6.5 6.6 2.8 2.6 2.2 2.3 2.4 -2.8 -3.2 2 4 6.2 United States of America AA+ 8.1 7.4 6.4 5.7 5.4 2.1 1.5 1.3 1.7 1.7 2.7 2.5 4.5 4.3 5.3 Uruguay BBB- 6.1 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 7.5 8.5 9 8 7 15 18.8 13 13 12.7 Venezuela B- 7.8 7.5 7.5 8.5 N/A 20.1 50 50 50 N/A 58.5 37.2 38 38.5 N/A Vietnam BB- 3.2 3.8 4 4 4 9.1 6.6 6.5 6.1 6.8 8.9 7 13 14 14 Zambia B+ N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 6.6 7.3 7.3 6.4 6 41.6 9.2 20 20 23.9 Economic Data DC--Depository corporation
  • 15. 15Data as of 24th March 2014 © Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, 2014 e--Estimate. f--Forecast. LT FC--Long-term foreign currency. N/A--Not applicable. Table 2 Sovereign Risk Indicators: Government Data General Government Debt (% of GDP) Net Net of gov. deposits Gross LT FC rating 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f Abu Dhabi AA -195 -207 -215 -221 -226 -21 -21 -23 -24 -24 3 3 2 2 1 Albania B 61 65 68 69 67 61 65 68 69 67 62 65 68 69 67 Andorra A- 3 3 2 1 -1 41 41 39 37 35 41 41 39 37 35 Angola BB- 2 10 7 4 3 2 10 7 4 3 21 26 30 30 25 Argentina CCC+ 38 39 37 34 32 39 39 37 34 32 41 40 38 35 32 Aruba BBB+ 14 19 20 20 19 48 55 57 58 58 53 60 61 62 61 Australia AAA 17 18 21 23 23 25 26 29 30 30 27 28 31 32 31 Austria AA+ 70 71 70 69 67 71 72 71 70 68 72 73 73 71 69 Azerbaijan BBB- -48 -46 -41 -36 -32 2 1 2 2 3 6 6 6 6 6 Bahamas, The BBB 40 44 48 49 50 40 44 48 49 50 41 46 50 51 52 Bahrain BBB -2 0 3 6 9 17 16 17 19 21 34 37 34 33 34 Bangladesh BB- 32 29 30 30 30 32 29 30 31 31 37 34 35 35 35 Barbados BB- 67 70 71 72 71 84 87 88 87 85 89 92 92 91 89 Belarus B- 11 14 16 17 18 11 14 16 17 18 26 25 26 26 26 Belgium AA 92 92 92 91 91 98 98 97 96 96 98 98 98 97 96 Belize B- 73 73 71 68 65 74 74 72 69 66 74 74 72 69 66 Bermuda AA- -9 -8 -6 -3 -4 25 38 35 35 35 29 42 39 39 39 Bolivia BB- 15 16 16 15 15 15 16 16 15 15 31 31 29 28 26 Bosnia and Herzegovina B 39 40 40 40 39 42 43 43 42 41 45 45 45 44 43 Botswana A- -1 -2 -3 -5 -6 -1 -2 -3 -5 -6 19 16 13 9 6 Brazil BBB 43 42 44 45 46 43 42 44 45 46 59 57 58 58 58 Bulgaria BBB 10 13 14 15 15 10 13 14 15 15 18 19 20 21 21 Burkina Faso B 23 24 25 26 26 23 24 25 26 26 30 30 31 31 31 Cambodia B 26 25 25 25 24 26 25 25 25 24 31 30 29 29 28 Cameroon B 11 13 16 18 20 11 13 16 18 20 16 19 21 23 25 Canada AAA 53 51 50 50 49 69 67 67 66 65 73 71 70 70 69 Cape Verde B 79 84 89 94 93 84 88 94 98 97 89 93 98 102 101 Chile AA- 1 1 2 3 3 11 11 11 11 11 16 16 15 15 15 China AA- 13 14 14 14 14 13 14 14 14 14 17 19 18 18 17 Colombia BBB 28 27 26 24 23 32 30 29 28 27 35 33 32 31 29 Congo B+ 2 4 4 2 0 2 4 4 2 0 31 31 30 27 24 Congo, DR B- 26 21 19 16 14 26 21 19 16 14 32 26 22 19 16 Cook Islands B+ 6 15 18 21 25 6 15 18 21 25 22 25 26 28 31 Government Data
  • 16. 16Data as of 24th March 2014 © Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, 2014 e--Estimate. f--Forecast. LT FC--Long-term foreign currency. N/A--Not applicable. Table 2 Sovereign Risk Indicators: Government Data General Government Debt (% of GDP) Net Net of gov. deposits Gross LT FC rating 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f Costa Rica BB 32 33 36 38 40 38 39 42 44 45 39 41 44 46 47 Croatia BB 54 59 66 70 71 54 59 66 70 71 56 65 68 72 73 Curacao A- -47 -47 -39 -38 -36 17 18 25 25 25 29 30 37 37 37 Cyprus B- 83 108 119 125 127 83 108 119 125 127 85 110 121 127 129 Czech Republic AA- 37 39 41 43 44 37 39 41 43 44 46 47 49 50 51 Denmark AAA 29 30 33 34 35 36 37 39 41 41 45 46 48 49 50 Dominican Republic B+ 39 41 42 42 44 39 41 42 42 44 41 43 43 44 45 Ecuador B 21 20 21 23 24 21 20 21 23 24 21 21 22 23 25 Egypt B- 68 78 79 78 76 69 79 79 79 76 79 89 88 86 82 El Salvador BB- 42 43 45 46 47 42 43 45 46 47 47 45 47 48 49 Estonia AA- -1 -1 0 0 0 4 5 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 Fiji B 47 47 46 45 44 49 49 49 49 47 53 53 53 52 51 Finland AAA 17 18 19 21 22 51 54 58 61 63 52 55 59 62 64 France AA 81 84 86 87 87 87 90 92 92 93 88 91 93 94 94 Gabon BB- 11 16 18 20 21 11 19 20 21 21 17 24 25 27 27 Georgia BB- 31 30 31 32 32 31 30 31 32 32 35 32 33 34 34 Germany AAA 77 75 72 70 68 78 76 74 71 70 79 77 75 72 71 Ghana B 43 49 53 55 56 43 49 53 55 56 46 51 55 57 57 Greece B- 150 166 167 164 162 150 166 167 164 162 157 173 175 171 169 Grenada SD 95 95 98 97 95 100 101 103 102 101 102 103 105 104 103 Guatemala BB 18 19 20 20 21 18 19 20 20 21 24 25 25 25 25 Honduras B 22 28 31 35 41 23 29 32 36 41 35 41 42 45 50 Hong Kong AAA -35 -36 -34 -31 -30 -35 -36 -34 -31 -30 1 1 0 0 0 Hungary BB 74 74 74 74 74 74 74 74 74 74 80 80 79 78 78 Iceland BBB- 68 69 66 63 60 76 76 73 67 62 105 97 93 85 80 India BBB- 71 71 70 70 69 71 71 70 70 69 71 71 70 70 69 Indonesia BB+ 22 22 21 20 17 22 22 21 20 17 24 24 23 22 19 Ireland BBB+ 113 123 120 117 113 118 127 124 121 117 133 140 137 132 126 Israel A+ 63 63 63 63 62 63 63 63 63 62 68 68 68 68 66 Italy BBB 121 126 127 125 124 122 127 128 126 125 125 130 131 129 128 Jamaica B- 131 133 131 124 121 131 133 131 124 121 134 135 134 127 123 Japan AA- 126 138 150 155 160 235 241 247 250 252 241 246 252 255 257 Jersey AA+ -111 -108 -97 -92 N/A -2 0 9 10 N/A 0 2 11 12 N/A Government Data
  • 17. 17Data as of 24th March 2014 © Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, 2014 e--Estimate. f--Forecast. LT FC--Long-term foreign currency. N/A--Not applicable. Table 2 Sovereign Risk Indicators: Government Data General Government Debt (% of GDP) Net Net of gov. deposits Gross LT FC rating 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f Jordan BB- 48 49 50 50 49 53 55 56 55 54 60 63 62 61 59 Kazakhstan BBB+ -25 -31 -33 -34 -34 10 10 14 13 11 13 14 18 18 16 Kenya B+ 50 50 50 50 49 50 50 50 50 49 54 57 54 54 52 Korea A+ 15 16 17 17 18 15 16 17 17 18 20 21 21 21 21 Kuwait AA -235 -255 -268 -274 -278 -5 -5 -5 -4 -4 6 6 5 5 5 Latvia BBB+ 30 30 29 29 28 32 33 32 31 30 41 38 38 32 31 Lebanon B- 116 124 127 129 128 116 124 127 129 128 136 143 145 146 145 Liechtenstein AAA -108 -107 -98 -95 -93 -4 -4 -4 -4 -4 0 0 0 0 0 Lithuania BBB 35 37 37 35 33 35 37 37 35 33 40 40 42 40 35 Luxembourg AAA -16 -15 -15 -12 -11 15 16 17 20 22 21 23 24 26 28 Macedonia BB- 24 27 29 31 31 24 27 29 31 31 34 36 37 38 39 Malaysia A- 46 49 50 50 50 46 49 50 50 50 53 56 56 56 55 Malta BBB+ 59 59 59 58 57 64 62 62 61 60 71 69 69 68 66 Mexico BBB+ 36 38 39 39 38 37 39 39 39 39 37 40 40 40 39 Mongolia BB- 25 32 34 34 34 25 32 34 34 34 53 49 46 44 42 Montenegro BB- 51 55 53 51 49 51 55 53 51 49 54 57 55 53 51 Montserrat BBB- 5 4 4 7 6 5 4 4 7 6 5 4 4 7 6 Morocco BBB- 45 45 44 42 40 45 45 44 42 40 45 45 44 43 41 Mozambique B 30 30 39 41 43 30 30 39 41 43 41 40 47 48 49 Netherlands AA+ 65 69 71 72 73 68 72 74 75 76 70 73 75 76 77 New Zealand AA 19 16 18 19 20 36 33 34 35 35 42 41 40 41 41 Nigeria BB- 11 12 16 18 18 14 15 18 20 20 30 29 31 31 30 Norway AAA -107 -141 -142 -144 -145 24 27 24 23 22 29 31 29 28 26 Oman A -72 -77 -77 -74 -69 -11 -13 -12 -11 -10 5 4 4 4 4 Pakistan B- 56 58 57 57 55 58 59 57 57 55 61 61 60 59 58 Panama BBB 29 29 29 29 29 33 32 32 31 31 39 38 37 36 36 Papua New Guinea B+ 20 25 28 24 25 24 27 28 24 25 36 40 40 34 33 Paraguay BB- 5 6 7 7 7 5 6 7 7 7 14 14 14 14 13 Peru BBB+ 8 7 5 4 3 8 7 5 4 3 20 18 16 15 14 Philippines BBB- 30 29 27 26 25 42 41 40 38 37 48 47 45 44 43 Poland A- 52 54 46 47 48 52 55 47 48 48 56 57 49 50 50 Portugal BB 114 117 121 121 118 114 117 121 121 118 124 128 125 125 122 Qatar AA -57 -81 -85 -84 -85 23 12 14 13 12 31 29 30 28 26 Ras Al Khaimah A 0 -1 -6 -5 -4 17 24 17 16 16 24 29 22 21 20 Government Data
  • 18. 18Data as of 24th March 2014 © Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, 2014 e--Estimate. f--Forecast. LT FC--Long-term foreign currency. N/A--Not applicable. Table 2 Sovereign Risk Indicators: Government Data General Government Debt (% of GDP) Net Net of gov. deposits Gross LT FC rating 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f Romania BB+ 33 33 34 35 35 33 33 34 35 35 38 39 38 39 39 Russia BBB 0 0 1 2 3 -1 -1 0 1 3 13 13 13 14 15 Rwanda B 18 21 22 23 23 18 21 22 23 23 24 28 29 28 28 Saudi Arabia AA- -125 -133 -134 -134 -133 4 3 3 2 2 4 3 3 2 2 Senegal B+ 36 39 42 43 44 36 39 42 43 44 43 46 48 49 50 Serbia BB- 45 46 50 52 53 45 46 50 52 53 51 53 57 59 60 Sharjah A 3 3 4 5 5 6 7 8 8 8 6 7 8 8 8 Singapore AAA -88 -99 -101 -103 -105 58 56 55 57 58 108 106 104 105 106 Slovak Republic A 46 48 49 50 51 46 48 50 51 52 50 53 54 55 56 Slovenia A- 46 62 68 69 68 49 64 71 72 71 52 69 76 76 75 South Africa BBB 38 41 43 44 45 44 46 47 48 49 44 46 47 48 49 Spain BBB- 75 83 88 91 93 79 87 92 95 96 84 92 97 100 101 Sri Lanka B+ 78 76 74 72 70 78 76 74 72 70 79 77 75 73 71 Suriname BB- 16 28 26 25 23 16 28 26 25 23 20 32 30 28 26 Sweden AAA 7 7 9 10 9 35 34 35 34 32 38 42 42 41 39 Switzerland AAA 25 25 25 24 23 34 33 33 32 31 36 35 35 34 32 Taiwan AA- 45 45 45 45 44 45 45 45 45 44 50 50 49 49 48 Thailand BBB+ 21 24 25 26 27 21 24 25 26 27 31 34 35 35 35 Trinidad and Tobago A 18 17 18 20 21 38 38 37 37 37 41 39 39 39 38 Turkey BB+ 32 32 33 34 34 32 32 33 34 34 36 36 37 38 37 Uganda B 10 13 19 22 24 10 14 20 23 25 30 29 33 34 34 Ukraine CCC 28 36 44 42 40 28 36 44 42 40 29 37 45 42 41 United Kingdom AAA 84 87 89 89 88 88 91 93 93 92 89 92 93 94 93 United States of America AA+ 77 79 80 79 78 83 84 85 84 83 86 88 88 87 87 Uruguay BBB- 46 49 47 44 42 48 51 49 46 44 54 56 53 50 48 Venezuela B- 19 22 26 29 N/A 23 27 30 31 N/A 27 30 32 33 N/A Vietnam BB- 38 37 35 34 34 38 37 35 34 34 40 39 37 36 35 Zambia B+ 19 25 30 33 34 19 25 30 33 34 27 30 34 37 38 Government Data
  • 19. 19Data as of 24th March 2014 © Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, 2014 e--Estimate. f--Forecast. LT FC--Long-term foreign currency. N/A--Not applicable. Table 2 Sovereign Risk Indicators: Government Data Fiscal performance (% of GDP) Surplus (deficit) Primary balance Revenues LT FC rating 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f Abu Dhabi AA 15.4 13.3 12.3 10.8 9.8 15.4 13.4 12.5 10.9 9.9 49 46 45 44 43 Albania B -3.5 -5.1 -5.5 -4.8 -2.5 -0.3 -1.9 -1.8 -1.5 0.7 25 24 25 25 25 Andorra A- 0 0.3 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.4 2 2.5 2.7 2.6 22 21 21 21 21 Angola BB- 6.5 2 3.5 3.5 3 7.5 3.1 4.8 5 4.5 46 47 45 45 45 Argentina CCC+ -3.3 -2.1 -3.1 -3.1 -3.1 -1 0.2 -1 -1.1 -1.3 40 41 41 41 41 Aruba BBB+ -5.6 -4.9 -3.8 -2.7 -1.3 -2.4 -1.3 0 1 2.4 41 43 43 43 44 Australia AAA -4.2 -1.6 -3.8 -2.3 -1.2 -3.1 -0.4 -2.4 -0.7 0.5 32 34 34 34 34 Austria AA+ -2.6 -1.7 -1.6 -0.7 -0.1 0.1 0.9 1 2 2.5 49 50 50 50 50 Azerbaijan BBB- 4.2 1.9 -0.5 -0.7 -0.8 4.4 2.2 -0.3 -0.5 -0.6 41 42 38 37 36 Bahamas, The BBB -6.6 -5.4 -4 -3.2 -2.5 -4.2 -3 -1.6 -0.8 -0.1 19 20 21 21 21 Bahrain BBB -0.7 -2 -3 -3.5 -3.5 0.6 -0.7 -1.7 -2.3 -2.3 30 29 27 26 25 Bangladesh BB- -3.6 -3.9 -4.2 -3.8 -3.5 -1.4 -1.6 -2.5 -2.1 -1.8 13 13 13 14 14 Barbados BB- -5.4 -5.8 -4.3 -3.8 -2.5 -0.5 -0.9 0.7 1.2 2.4 38 37 37 39 39 Belarus B- 0.7 0.2 0.5 -1 -1 2.1 1.2 2 0.5 0.6 41 41 40 39 39 Belgium AA -4.1 -2.8 -2.5 -2.6 -2.5 -0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 51 52 51 51 51 Belize B- -0.9 -1.8 -0.5 -0.1 0.4 2.4 0.5 2.4 2.8 3.3 28 26 26 26 26 Bermuda AA- -4.5 -5.4 -3.9 -2.5 -1.5 -3 -3.4 -1.9 -0.5 0.4 18 18 18 18 18 Bolivia BB- 1.8 -1 -1 -1 -1 2.7 0.1 0 0 -0.1 35 32 32 32 32 Bosnia and Herzegovina B -2.7 -2.2 -1.7 -1.5 -1.5 -1.9 -1.3 -0.7 -0.5 -0.5 46 45 45 45 45 Botswana A- 0.8 1 1.2 1.8 2 2.3 1.8 1.9 2.4 2.4 38 38 38 38 39 Brazil BBB -2.4 -3.2 -3.9 -3.5 -3.4 2.5 1.9 1.5 1.9 2 40 41 41 41 41 Bulgaria BBB -0.8 -2 -1.9 -1.5 -1.1 0.1 -1 -0.9 -0.4 0.1 35 35 35 35 34 Burkina Faso B -3.2 -3.2 -3.1 -2.9 -2.9 -2.5 -2.7 -2.6 -2.4 -2.4 23 24 24 24 25 Cambodia B -2.8 -2.5 -2.5 -2.4 -2 -2.5 -2.2 -2.2 -2 -1.6 16 16 16 16 16 Cameroon B -1.1 -3 -3.5 -3.5 -3.5 -0.7 -2.5 -2.9 -2.9 -2.8 18 18 19 19 19 Canada AAA -3.4 -2.9 -2.5 -2.5 -2.2 -0.5 0.6 1 1.1 1.5 38 38 38 38 39 Cape Verde B -9.9 -8.1 -10.8 -10.5 -5.5 -8.3 -6.3 -8.9 -8.5 -3.4 22 25 24 24 24 Chile AA- 0.7 -0.3 -0.5 -0.6 -0.8 1.3 0.2 0 -0.1 -0.3 24 24 24 25 25 China AA- -1.6 -1.5 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.2 -1 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 22 21 21 21 21 Colombia BBB -0.1 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 2.5 1.7 1.4 1.1 1 27 26 27 27 27 Congo B+ 6.5 6 8 9 10 6.6 6.2 8.2 9.2 10.2 43 38 39 40 41 Congo, DR B- 0.9 0 -1.5 -1 -1 1.8 0.6 -1.1 -0.7 -0.7 20 21 21 22 22 Cook Islands B+ -2.2 -2 2.1 -3.9 -5.1 -1.9 -1.8 2.4 -3.6 -4.7 41 41 44 38 33 Government Data
  • 20. 20Data as of 24th March 2014 © Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, 2014 e--Estimate. f--Forecast. LT FC--Long-term foreign currency. N/A--Not applicable. Table 2 Sovereign Risk Indicators: Government Data Fiscal performance (% of GDP) Surplus (deficit) Primary balance Revenues LT FC rating 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f Costa Rica BB -4.3 -6 -5.7 -4.9 -4.6 -2.2 -3.5 -3.3 -2.4 -2 26 25 26 26 26 Croatia BB -5 -5.8 -5.5 -4.5 -4.5 -2 -2.5 -1.8 -0.9 -0.7 41 40 40 40 40 Curacao A- -0.1 1.8 1.2 1.7 2.1 0.7 2.7 2.3 2.8 3.2 46 45 45 45 44 Cyprus B- -6.4 -5.5 -6.8 -6 -5.1 -3.3 -1.8 -2.6 -1.8 -0.8 39 41 40 39 40 Czech Republic AA- -4.4 -2.7 -2.9 -2.9 -2.8 -3 -1.2 -1.5 -1.4 -1.3 40 41 41 40 40 Denmark AAA -3.9 -1.9 -3 -2.9 -2.2 -2.2 -0.3 -1.5 -1.3 -0.6 55 57 56 54 54 Dominican Rep. B+ -7.8 -5 -4 -3.8 -5.3 -5.4 -2.5 -1.4 -1.2 -2.6 14 15 15 15 15 Ecuador B -1.1 -1 -2 -3 -3 -0.3 0.3 -0.7 -1.6 -1.5 40 40 40 40 40 Egypt B- -10.5 -14.1 -13 -13 -10 -4.6 -6.4 -4.9 -5.7 -3.5 22 23 23 24 23 El Salvador BB- -3.4 -4 -3.6 -3.4 -3.2 -1.2 -1.6 -1.3 -1 -0.7 20 20 20 20 20 Estonia AA- -0.2 -0.5 -0.3 0 0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 0.2 0.5 39 40 40 40 40 Fiji B -1.1 -2.8 -2 -1.5 -1.5 2.6 0.9 1.7 2.2 2.2 27 27 34 34 34 Finland AAA -2.2 -2.3 -2 -2 -2 -0.8 -0.8 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 54 55 56 56 56 France AA -4.8 -4.1 -3.8 -3.5 -3 -2.3 -1.7 -1.4 -1 -0.5 52 53 53 54 54 Gabon BB- 2.3 -3 0 0.5 0.5 3.3 -2.1 1.4 1.9 2 28 28 29 30 31 Georgia BB- -2.8 -2.6 -3.7 -3.5 -3.5 -1.8 -1.7 -2.7 -2.5 -2.5 29 27 28 28 28 Germany AAA 0.1 -0.1 0 -0.2 -0.3 2.5 2.3 2.3 2 1.9 45 44 44 44 44 Ghana B -11.8 -10.4 -9 -8 -7 -8.5 -6.9 -5.6 -4.4 -3.2 22 23 23 23 23 Greece B- -9 -13.1 -2.4 -1.5 -1.2 -4 -9.6 2.1 3.3 3.6 45 43 44 44 45 Grenada SD -5.6 -1.1 -6 -3.5 -3 -2.2 1.6 -2.7 -0.2 0.3 21 22 34 23 22 Guatemala BB -2.4 -2.3 -2.3 -2.3 -2.3 -0.9 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 -0.7 12 12 12 12 12 Honduras B -6.4 -7.8 -5.4 -5.2 -6.8 -4.6 -5.4 -2.9 -2.7 -4 17 17 17 17 17 Hong Kong AAA 3.2 0.6 0.1 0 0.4 3.3 0.6 0.1 0 0.4 22 21 19 20 19 Hungary BB -2 -2.9 -2.8 -2.8 -2.8 2.3 1 1.2 1.5 1.5 47 46 46 46 46 Iceland BBB- -3.8 -2.1 -1.5 -1 -1 1.8 3.2 3.1 3.4 3 44 44 46 46 46 India BBB- -7.6 -7.2 -6.8 -6.4 -6.4 -2.7 -2.7 -2.3 -1.9 -2 22 20 20 20 20 Indonesia BB+ -2.3 -1.7 -1.5 -0.7 0.3 -0.9 -0.5 -0.4 0.4 1.3 16 17 17 17 18 Ireland BBB+ -8.2 -7.3 -4.8 -2.9 -2.4 -4.6 -2.1 1.3 3 3.3 34 34 35 35 35 Israel A+ -4.2 -3.2 -3.3 -2.8 -2.4 -0.4 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.2 35 36 37 37 37 Italy BBB -3 -3 -2.9 -2 -1.6 2.4 2.4 2.9 3.9 4.2 48 48 48 48 48 Jamaica B- -4.1 -0.5 -0.5 -0.2 -0.1 5.6 8.2 7.3 6.8 6.4 26 28 27 27 27 Japan AA- -8.7 -9.7 -8.8 -8.2 -7.7 -6.9 -7.4 -5.9 -4.8 -3.5 32 32 33 33 33 Jersey AA+ 0.9 0 -6.4 0 N/A 0.9 0 -6.4 0.3 N/A 19 17 17 17 N/A Government Data
  • 21. 21Data as of 24th March 2014 © Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, 2014 e--Estimate. f--Forecast. LT FC--Long-term foreign currency. N/A--Not applicable. Table 2 Sovereign Risk Indicators: Government Data Fiscal performance (% of GDP) Surplus (deficit) Primary balance Revenues LT FC rating 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f Jordan BB- -6 -4.5 -3.4 -2.7 -2.2 -3.8 -2 -0.6 0.1 0.5 34 36 36 36 36 Kazakhstan BBB+ 4.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 4.9 4 4.1 4.2 4.2 27 26 26 25 25 Kenya B+ -6.8 -5.5 -5 -5 -4.5 -3.2 -2.2 -1.6 -1.8 -1.3 25 25 26 26 26 Korea A+ 1.5 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 2.9 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 29 29 29 29 29 Kuwait AA 37.3 31.9 28 23.1 20 37.3 32 28.1 23.2 20.1 75 70 66 62 60 Latvia BBB+ -1.4 -1.3 -1 -1 -0.8 0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 35 35 35 36 36 Lebanon B- -9.3 -9.5 -9 -9 -8 -0.7 -0.7 0.2 0.3 1.2 22 22 22 22 23 Liechtenstein AAA 5.6 0.5 -5.7 0 0.7 5.6 0.5 -5.7 0 0.7 26 21 19 20 20 Lithuania BBB -3.4 -2.8 -2.1 -1.5 -0.5 -1.4 -0.7 -0.1 0.7 1.6 33 32 32 32 33 Luxembourg AAA -0.6 -0.2 0.1 -1.5 -1.3 -0.1 0.3 0.7 -0.9 -0.7 44 43 43 41 41 Macedonia BB- -4 -3.9 -3.5 -3.1 -2.7 -3 -2.8 -2.3 -1.7 -1.3 32 32 32 32 32 Malaysia A- -8.1 -6.9 -6 -5.8 -5.7 -6 -4.6 -3.7 -3.4 -3.3 18 19 18 18 18 Malta BBB+ -3.3 -2.8 -2.4 -2 -2 -0.2 0.3 0.6 1 0.9 40 41 41 41 41 Mexico BBB+ -2.8 -2.6 -3.2 -2.7 -2.2 -1.2 -0.9 -1.5 -1.1 -0.7 18 19 20 20 20 Mongolia BB- -11.7 -12.7 -7.5 -6 -5.5 -10.8 -12 -6 -4.5 -4 36 34 33 32 32 Montenegro BB- -3.4 -1.1 -1.5 -0.8 -0.3 -1.6 1.1 0.9 1.6 2 41 42 41 39 39 Montserrat BBB- -7.3 0 0 -3.7 0 -7.3 0.1 0.1 -3.6 0.1 86 76 74 72 69 Morocco BBB- -5.3 -3.7 -2.7 -2.2 -1.6 -3 -1.2 -0.2 0.4 0.9 36 37 37 37 38 Mozambique B -3.9 -5 -12.5 -7.5 -7.5 -3.2 -4.2 -11.7 -6.5 -6.5 30 32 28 28 28 Netherlands AA+ -4.1 -3.1 -3.1 -2.8 -2.5 -2.2 -1.3 -1.3 -1 -0.8 46 47 47 47 48 New Zealand AA -5.8 -3.4 -2.5 -2.1 -1.1 -3.8 -1.4 -0.3 0.1 1.1 32 33 34 34 34 Nigeria BB- 1.9 -4 -5 -3.5 -2 4.2 -1.5 -2.6 -0.9 0.6 29 28 28 28 28 Norway AAA 13.9 11.1 13 13 13 14.8 12 13.9 13.9 13.8 57 55 56 56 56 Oman A 2.6 1.7 2.9 1.4 1.5 2.7 1.9 3 1.5 1.6 48 46 47 45 45 Pakistan B- -6.4 -7.7 -5.5 -5 -4 -2 -3.4 -0.7 -0.4 0.7 13 13 15 15 15 Panama BBB -3.2 -3 -2.8 -2.8 -2.8 -1.2 -1 -0.9 -0.9 -1 24 24 24 24 24 Papua New Guinea B+ -3.2 -6.5 -5.9 -2.5 -2.5 -1.9 -5 -4.4 -1.1 -1.1 30 28 25 24 24 Paraguay BB- -1.9 -1.7 -1.2 -0.8 -0.8 -1.6 -1.2 -0.8 -0.5 -0.5 20 19 19 20 20 Peru BBB+ 1.9 1 0.9 0.8 0.6 2.9 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.3 22 22 22 22 22 Philippines BBB- -2 -1.4 -1.3 -1.2 -1 0.7 1.2 1.3 0.9 1 21 21 21 22 22 Poland A- -3.9 -4.3 4.5 -3.3 -2.9 -1.1 -1.5 7.1 -1.2 -0.9 38 38 45 38 38 Portugal BB -6.5 -5.9 -4.2 -3 -2 -2.1 -1.6 0.2 1.4 2.4 41 43 43 43 43 Qatar AA 17.5 17.9 8.1 6.4 4.4 18.9 19.4 9.5 7.9 5.8 47 49 40 39 38 Ras Al Khaimah A 3.9 4 4 3.5 3.5 4.1 4.4 4.4 3.8 3.8 17 20 21 20 21 Government Data
  • 22. 22Data as of 24th March 2014 © Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, 2014 e--Estimate. f--Forecast. LT FC--Long-term foreign currency. N/A--Not applicable. Table 2 Sovereign Risk Indicators: Government Data Fiscal performance (% of GDP) Surplus (deficit) Primary balance Revenues LT FC rating 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f Romania BB+ -3 -2.5 -2.2 -1.9 -1.8 -1.2 -0.6 -0.3 0 0.1 34 34 34 34 35 Russia BBB 0.4 -0.6 -0.9 -1.2 -1.5 1.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.6 38 37 36 36 35 Rwanda B -5.6 -5.5 -4 -3.4 -3 -4.9 -4.7 -3.3 -2.7 -2.3 25 27 26 25 25 Saudi Arabia AA- 14.2 8.5 5.4 3 2.2 14.4 8.6 5.6 3.1 2.2 48 43 40 37 36 Senegal B+ -5.9 -5.4 -4.9 -4.2 -3.9 -4.3 -3.6 -3 -2.2 -1.8 23 23 23 23 24 Serbia BB- -6.5 -4.9 -6 -5 -4 -4.5 -2.3 -3.3 -2.1 -1 42 40 39 39 39 Singapore A -1.2 -2 -1.2 -0.9 -0.6 -0.8 -1.7 -0.9 -0.5 -0.2 6 6 6 6 6 Slovakia AAA 10.2 6 4 4 3.5 10.2 6 4 4 3.5 23 24 22 22 22 Slovenia A -4.6 -3 -2.9 -2.9 -2.7 -2.7 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.2 33 34 34 34 34 South Africa A- -3.8 -15.7 -7.2 -2.5 -2 -1.7 -13.1 -4.1 0.7 1.3 44 44 45 45 45 Spain BBB -4.3 -4.2 -4.1 -3.8 -3.4 -1.5 -1.2 -1 -0.6 -0.2 29 30 30 30 30 Sri Lanka BBB- -10.6 -7 -5.8 -4.7 -3.7 -7.6 -3.6 -2.3 -1.2 -0.1 37 38 38 38 38 Suriname B+ -6.5 -6 -5.6 -5.2 -5.2 -1.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 14 14 14 15 15 Sweden BB- -1.9 -1.5 -1.1 -1.1 -1 -1 -0.3 0.1 0 0 25 26 27 27 27 Switzerland AAA -0.6 -1.5 -1.9 -0.9 0 0.4 -0.6 -0.9 0.3 1.2 51 51 51 51 51 Taiwan AAA 0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.4 1.1 0.6 0.5 0.6 1.1 33 33 33 33 33 Thailand AA- -2.5 -1.9 -2 -1.9 -1.8 -1.5 -1 -1 -0.9 -0.9 16 17 17 17 17 Trinidad and Tobago BBB+ -1.1 -1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 1 22 21 21 21 21 Tunisia A -1.2 -2.7 -2.6 -2.6 -2.5 0.6 -1 0.3 0.1 0 32 32 33 33 33 Turkey BB+ -1.6 -1.8 -3 -3.4 -2.7 1.2 0.5 -0.7 -1 -0.3 35 36 34 35 35 Uganda B -2.8 -3.8 -6.9 -5 -5 -1.7 -2.3 -5.7 -3.7 -3.7 15 14 15 16 16 Ukraine CCC -5.4 -7 -6.8 -4.8 -4.3 -3.2 -4.3 -3.6 -1.2 -1 45 44 43 40 41 United Kingdom AAA -6.1 -6.3 -5.2 -4.3 -3 -3.1 -3.3 -2.2 -1.1 0.3 42 42 43 43 43 United States of America AA+ -8.5 -5.9 -4.2 -3.4 -3.4 -6.3 -3.7 -2 -1.3 -1.3 33 35 36 36 36 Uruguay BBB- -2.1 -1.4 -1.8 -1.7 -1.7 0.5 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.1 38 40 38 38 37 Venezuela B- -4.9 -5.6 -4.4 -4.4 N/A -2.2 -3 -1.7 -1.6 N/A 23 23 24 24 N/A Vietnam BB- -2.6 -3.4 -3.2 -3 -3 -1.3 -2.1 -2 -1.8 -1.8 24 28 28 28 28 Zambia B+ -2.8 -8 -7.5 -6.5 -5.5 -1.2 -6.6 -5.6 -4.2 -3.2 19 20 20 21 22 Government Data
  • 23. 23Data as of 24th March 2014 © Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, 2014 e--Estimate. f--Forecast. LT FC--Long-term foreign currency. N/A--Not applicable. Table 2 Sovereign Risk Indicators: Government Data Expenditures as % of GDP Interest as % of GDP LT FC rating 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f Abu Dhabi AA 34 33 33 33 33 0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 Albania B 28 29 30 30 28 3.1 3.2 3.7 3.2 3.2 Andorra A- 22 20 20 20 20 1.3 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 Angola BB- 39 45 42 42 42 1 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.5 Argentina CCC+ 43 43 44 44 44 2.3 2.3 2.1 2 1.8 Aruba BBB+ 46 47 46 46 45 3.2 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.7 Australia AAA 37 36 37 36 35 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.6 Austria AA+ 52 51 51 50 50 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.6 Azerbaijan BBB- 37 40 39 38 37 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 Bahamas, The BBB 26 25 25 24 23 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 Bahrain BBB 31 31 30 29 29 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 Bangladesh BB- 17 17 18 18 18 2.2 2.3 1.7 1.7 1.7 Barbados BB- 43 42 42 42 41 4.9 4.9 5 5 4.9 Belarus B- 40 41 40 40 40 1.4 1 1.5 1.5 1.6 Belgium AA 55 54 54 54 53 3.5 3.2 3 3.1 3.1 Belize B- 28 28 27 26 26 3.2 2.3 2.9 2.9 3 Bermuda AA- 22 24 22 20 19 1.5 2 2 2 2 Bolivia BB- 33 33 33 33 33 0.9 1.1 1 1 0.9 Bosnia and Herzegovina B 49 47 46 46 47 0.8 0.9 1 1 1.1 Botswana A- 37 37 37 36 37 1.4 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.4 Brazil BBB 43 44 44 44 44 4.8 5.1 5.4 5.4 5.4 Bulgaria BBB 36 37 37 36 35 0.9 1 1 1.1 1.2 Burkina Faso B 27 27 27 27 27 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Cambodia B 18 18 19 19 18 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 Cameroon B 19 21 22 22 22 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 Canada AAA 41 41 41 41 41 2.8 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.7 Cape Verde B 32 33 35 34 29 1.6 1.8 1.9 2 2.1 Chile AA- 23 24 25 25 26 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 China AA- 24 23 23 23 23 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Colombia BBB 27 27 28 28 28 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 Congo B+ 36 32 31 31 31 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Congo, DR B- 19 21 23 23 23 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 Cook Islands B+ 44 43 42 42 38 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 Costa Rica BB 30 31 31 31 31 2.1 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.6 Croatia BB 46 46 46 45 45 3 3.2 3.7 3.6 3.8 Government Data
  • 24. 24Data as of 24th March 2014 © Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, 2014 e--Estimate. f--Forecast. LT FC--Long-term foreign currency. N/A--Not applicable. Table 2 Sovereign Risk Indicators: Government Data Expenditures as % of GDP Interest as % of GDP LT FC rating 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f Curacao A- 46 44 44 43 42 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 Cyprus B- 46 46 46 45 45 3.2 3.7 4.2 4.2 4.3 Czech Republic AA- 45 43 44 43 43 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.5 Denmark AAA 59 59 59 57 56 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.6 Dominican Rep. B+ 22 20 19 19 21 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7 Ecuador B 41 41 42 43 43 0.8 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 Egypt B- 33 37 36 37 33 5.9 7.7 8.1 7.3 6.5 El Salvador BB- 23 24 24 24 23 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.4 Estonia AA- 39 40 40 40 39 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Fiji B 28 30 36 35 35 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 Finland AAA 57 57 58 58 58 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.9 France AA 57 57 57 57 57 2.6 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6 Gabon BB- 26 31 29 30 30 0.9 0.9 1.4 1.4 1.5 Georgia BB- 32 30 32 32 32 1 0.9 1 1 1 Germany AAA 45 44 44 44 44 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.2 Ghana B 34 33 32 31 30 3.3 3.5 3.4 3.7 3.8 Greece B- 54 56 46 46 46 5 3.5 4.5 4.8 4.8 Grenada SD 27 23 41 26 25 3.5 2.7 3.3 3.3 3.3 Guatemala BB 14 14 15 15 15 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 Honduras B 23 25 23 22 24 1.8 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.8 Hong Kong AAA 18 21 19 20 19 0 0 0 0 0 Hungary BB 49 49 49 49 49 4.4 3.9 4 4.3 4.3 Iceland BBB- 47 46 48 47 47 5.6 5.3 4.6 4.4 4 India BBB- 30 27 27 27 27 5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.4 Indonesia BB+ 19 18 18 18 17 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.1 1 Ireland BBB+ 43 42 40 38 37 3.6 5.2 6.1 5.9 5.7 Israel A+ 39 39 40 40 39 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 Italy BBB 51 51 51 50 49 5.4 5.4 5.8 5.9 5.8 Jamaica B- 30 28 28 28 27 9.7 8.7 7.9 7.1 6.4 Japan AA- 41 41 41 42 41 1.8 2.4 2.9 3.5 4.2 Jersey AA+ 18 17 24 17 N/A 0 0 0.1 0.4 N/A Jordan BB- 40 40 39 39 38 2.2 2.5 2.8 2.8 2.7 Kazakhstan BBB+ 22 22 22 21 21 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 Kenya B+ 32 31 31 31 30 3.5 3.3 3.4 3.2 3.2 Government Data
  • 25. 25Data as of 24th March 2014 © Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, 2014 e--Estimate. f--Forecast. LT FC--Long-term foreign currency. N/A--Not applicable. Table 2 Sovereign Risk Indicators: Government Data Expenditures as % of GDP Interest as % of GDP LT FC rating 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f Korea A+ 27 28 29 29 29 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 Kuwait AA 38 38 38 39 40 0.1 0.1 0 0 0 Latvia BBB+ 36 37 36 37 37 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.1 Lebanon B- 31 32 31 31 31 8.6 8.8 9.2 9.3 9.2 Liechtenstein AAA 20 21 25 20 19 0 0 0 0 0 Lithuania BBB 36 35 34 34 33 1.9 2.1 2 2.2 2.1 Luxembourg AAA 44 43 43 43 43 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 Macedonia BB- 36 36 36 35 35 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.4 Malaysia A- 26 26 24 24 24 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 Malta BBB+ 43 44 43 43 43 3.1 3.1 3 3 2.9 Mexico BBB+ 21 22 23 23 22 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 Mongolia BB- 47 46 41 38 38 0.9 0.7 1.5 1.5 1.5 Montenegro BB- 45 43 43 40 39 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.3 Montserrat BBB- 93 76 74 75 69 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Morocco BBB- 41 40 40 39 39 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.5 Mozambique B 34 37 41 35 35 0.7 0.8 0.8 1 1 Netherlands AA+ 50 50 50 50 50 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 New Zealand AA 38 36 36 36 35 1.9 2 2.2 2.2 2.2 Nigeria BB- 27 32 33 32 30 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.6 2.6 Norway AAA 43 44 43 43 43 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 Oman A 46 44 44 44 44 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Pakistan B- 20 21 20 20 19 4.4 4.3 4.8 4.6 4.7 Panama BBB 27 27 27 27 27 2.1 2 1.9 1.9 1.9 Papua New Guinea B+ 33 34 31 27 27 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 Paraguay BB- 22 20 21 21 21 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 Peru BBB+ 20 21 21 21 21 1 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 Philippines BBB- 23 22 23 23 23 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.1 2 Poland A- 42 42 41 41 40 2.8 2.8 2.6 2.1 2 Portugal BB 47 49 47 46 45 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.4 Qatar AA 30 31 32 33 34 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.4 Ras Al Khaimah A 13 16 17 17 18 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 Romania BB+ 37 36 36 36 36 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 Russia BBB 37 37 37 37 37 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 Rwanda B 31 32 30 28 28 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 Saudi Arabia AA- 34 35 34 34 34 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 Government Data
  • 26. 26Data as of 24th March 2014 © Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, 2014 e--Estimate. f--Forecast. LT FC--Long-term foreign currency. N/A--Not applicable. Table 2 Sovereign Risk Indicators: Government Data Expenditures as % of GDP Interest as % of GDP LT FC rating 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f Senegal B+ 29 29 28 28 28 1.6 1.8 1.9 2 2.1 Serbia BB- 48 45 45 44 43 2 2.6 2.7 2.9 3 Sharjah A 7 8 7 7 6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 Singapore AAA 13 18 18 18 19 0 0 0 0 0 Slovak Republic A 38 37 36 37 37 1.9 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.5 Slovenia A- 48 60 52 47 47 2.2 2.6 3.1 3.2 3.3 South Africa BBB 33 34 34 34 34 2.8 3 3.1 3.2 3.2 Spain BBB- 48 45 44 43 41 3 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.6 Sri Lanka B+ 21 20 20 20 20 5.4 5.9 5.6 5.3 5.1 Suriname BB- 27 27 28 28 28 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.1 1 Sweden AAA 52 52 53 52 51 0.9 0.9 1 1.2 1.2 Switzerland AAA 33 34 34 33 33 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 Taiwan AA- 19 19 19 19 19 1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 Thailand BBB+ 23 22 22 22 22 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.5 Trinidad and Tobago A 33 35 35 36 36 1.7 1.7 2.9 2.7 2.5 Turkey BB+ 36 38 37 38 37 2.8 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 Uganda B 17 18 22 21 21 1.1 1.5 1.2 1.3 1.3 Ukraine CCC 50 51 50 45 45 2.2 2.7 3.2 3.5 3.2 United Kingdom AAA 48 48 48 47 46 3 3 3 3.2 3.3 United States of America AA+ 41 41 40 40 39 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2 Uruguay BBB- 40 41 40 39 39 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 Venezuela B- 28 29 29 29 N/A 2.7 2.5 2.7 2.8 N/A Vietnam BB- 26 31 31 31 31 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 Zambia B+ 22 28 28 28 28 1.6 1.4 1.9 2.3 2.4 Government Data
  • 27. 27Data as of 24th March 2014 © Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, 2014 e--Estimate. f--Forecast. LT FC--Long-term foreign currency. N/A--Not applicable. Table 3 Sovereign Risk Indicators: Balance-Of-Payments Data CARs/GDP (%) Real exports (% chg) Current account balance/GDP (%) LT FC rating 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f Albania B 46 48 51 55 60 7 10.5 14 15 15.5 -10.7 -10.3 -9.9 -8.4 -7.8 Angola BB- 62 61 58 55 54 6.8 8 6.5 5.3 6 11.9 12 9.1 6.8 5.9 Argentina CCC+ 21 20 19 19 18 -6.6 6 6 6 6 0.1 -1.2 -1.8 -2 -2 Aruba BBB+ 128 80 79 78 77 3.7 2 5.5 4.7 4.7 4.9 -5 -4.8 -4.4 -4.1 Australia AAA 25 23 24 24 25 4.7 6.1 5 6.5 8 -3.2 -3.6 -3.8 -3.4 -3 Austria AA+ 67 66 67 69 70 1.2 2.3 4.5 5.6 5.6 1.6 2.6 3 3.6 4.2 Azerbaijan BBB- 58 55 55 53 52 2.9 4.9 5 5 5 21.8 17.4 14.9 12.5 10.1 Bahamas, The BBB 48 47 47 46 44 -1 -2.4 2 2.5 2.5 -17.5 -15.1 -12.9 -10.7 -10.3 Bahrain BBB 85 80 80 82 82 -3.2 5 5.7 5.8 5 7.3 9.1 8.8 8.4 8.1 Bangladesh BB- 36 34 34 36 36 9.6 10 10 11 11 -0.4 1.9 1.9 2 2.2 Barbados BB- 60 56 57 60 58 8 -0.9 1.6 3.2 3.1 -5.1 -5.8 -8.1 -8.2 -9.9 Belarus B- 86 78 72 66 61 7 -4 -1 0 1 -2.7 -7 -5.3 -5.8 -5.8 Belgium AA 98 97 98 99 100 1.8 1.7 2.2 2.4 4 -2 -2 -1 0.4 0.5 Belize B- 73 72 71 69 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A -4.8 -2 -2.8 -3.7 -4.5 Bermuda AA- 59 70 59 58 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 14.1 23.9 13 13.1 13.1 Bolivia BB- 50 48 47 46 45 7.6 5 3 3 3 7.4 3.4 2.5 2.1 1.6 Bosnia and Herzegovina B 49 51 52 52 53 2.2 6.5 5 6 5.5 -9.7 -7.6 -7 -6.9 -6.3 Botswana A- 58 61 61 63 65 -7 15 10.5 13.5 12 -4.7 -0.4 1.2 2.1 1.8 Brazil BBB 13 14 14 14 14 0.5 2.5 3 3 5 -2.4 -3.8 -3.6 -3.3 -3 Bulgaria BBB 75 80 81 84 87 -0.4 8.9 2.5 5 5 -1.3 2.1 1.2 0.1 -0.5 Burkina Faso B 35 31 32 32 33 24.4 -7.3 14 13 13 -1 -4.8 -5.8 -6.3 -6.6 Cambodia B 66 65 64 62 61 8.2 7.8 9.4 9.2 9.2 -8.6 -7.9 -7.8 -7.8 -7.8 Cameroon B 31 30 32 36 43 -1.3 2.5 2.8 3 3.1 -3.6 -3.8 -3.9 -3.9 -3.7 Canada AAA 35 35 35 35 36 1.5 2.1 2.5 2.9 2.3 -3.4 -3.2 -2.7 -2.5 -2.6 Cape Verde B 63 65 66 68 69 5.8 6.9 6.7 7.9 5.9 -11.9 -9.8 -9.5 -7.5 -6.8 Chile AA- 38 37 39 40 41 1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.3 -3.5 -4.2 -3.3 -2.4 -1.5 China AA- 29 28 27 27 26 1 3.9 6 5.6 5 2.3 2.1 2.8 2.5 2.4 Colombia BBB 21 20 20 20 20 5.3 5.5 6.5 6.3 6.3 -3.1 -3.2 -3.2 -3.1 -3.1 Congo B+ 77 72 75 80 83 -5.2 2 17 15 15 -1.3 -2.7 0.5 -0.8 0.2 Congo, DR B- 51 47 44 41 38 7.5 9 8 8 8 -8.7 -10.1 -9.8 -9.3 -8.5 Cook Islands B+ 99 98 97 92 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 20.3 21.6 22.2 21.4 23.5 Costa Rica BB 40 37 40 42 45 8.5 3.5 3.9 4.2 4.2 -5.3 -5.1 -4.9 -5 -4.4 Croatia BB 50 49 51 52 54 0.9 -1.8 2 4 5 -0.3 0.2 -0.1 -1 -1.3 Curacao A- 85 91 85 87 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A -27.7 -17.9 -15.1 -13.7 -12.6 Balance-Of-Payments Data
  • 28. 28Data as of 24th March 2014 © Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, 2014 e--Estimate. f--Forecast. LT FC--Long-term foreign currency. N/A--Not applicable. Table 3 Sovereign Risk Indicators: Balance-Of-Payments Data CARs/GDP (%) Real exports (% chg) Current account balance/GDP (%) LT FC rating 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f Cyprus B- 61 56 54 54 54 -2.5 -4.2 -2.7 1.9 2.6 -6.9 -1.4 1.1 0.9 1.4 Czech Republic AA- 84 84 84 85 87 4.5 -0.1 2.3 3.6 5.2 -1.3 -1.1 -1.2 -1.2 -1 Denmark AAA 64 66 68 68 69 0.4 1 3 3.3 3 6 5.3 5.1 5.1 4.8 Dominican Republic B+ 31 35 36 36 36 5.4 9 8 8 8 -7.2 -5.1 -4.5 -4.5 -4.5 Ecuador B 34 34 34 33 32 0.6 2 2.1 2 2 -0.2 -1.1 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 Egypt B- 25 25 23 22 21 -2.3 4.1 8 9.8 10.6 -4.3 -2.6 -2.7 -2.3 -1.7 El Salvador BB- 46 47 49 49 49 2.8 1.9 2.3 2.5 2.6 -5.3 -6.2 -4.8 -3.8 -2.7 Estonia AA- 105 99 99 100 101 5.6 1.8 4.1 5.6 5.6 -1.8 -1 -2.1 -2.2 -2.3 Fiji B 72 67 68 70 73 4.7 -2.3 2.8 2.7 2.7 -1.5 -17 -5.4 -6.5 -7.7 Finland AAA 49 49 50 51 52 -0.2 0.3 2.9 3.3 3.4 -1.7 -0.8 -1.5 -1.3 -1.3 France AA 38 38 39 40 40 2.4 0.6 4.2 5 3 -2.2 -2.1 -2.2 -2.4 -2.4 Gabon BB- 63 62 61 60 59 1 2 2 2.5 3 18.8 16 12 8.1 5 Georgia BB- 55 59 65 65 66 12.5 13.5 15 7.5 7 -11.7 -6.1 -5.5 -6.2 -7.5 Germany AAA 60 59 60 60 61 3.2 0.8 3.8 3.5 3 7 7.3 6.8 6.7 6.2 Ghana B 47 50 52 53 55 9.5 7 10.5 11 11 -12.1 -13.5 -13 -11.7 -10.1 Greece B- 30 34 35 36 37 -2.4 2.5 4.7 4.5 5 -2.4 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.2 Grenada SD 30 30 30 29 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A -27.2 -26.4 -23.6 -21.3 -20.2 Guatemala BB 37 36 34 33 34 2 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 -2.9 -3.1 -3.1 -2.8 -2.8 Honduras B 67 59 52 52 53 2.8 3 2.5 2.8 3 -9.6 -10.2 -5.2 -5.5 -8.1 Hong Kong AAA 270 278 282 283 285 1.9 6.5 3.9 3.9 3.9 1.6 2.1 1.8 2.3 3.1 Hungary BB 102 103 105 109 113 1.7 5.3 5 5 5 1.1 2.4 1.5 0.6 -0.2 Iceland BBB- 64 62 62 63 62 3.9 5.4 3.8 4 3.7 0.6 6.2 3.4 2.7 2.2 India BBB- 31 31 31 32 32 5 4.3 4.8 6.3 6.5 -5.1 -1.7 -1.8 -1.7 -1.7 Indonesia BB+ 25 25 25 26 27 2 7 8.2 8 8 -2.7 -3.3 -3.7 -3.6 -3.2 Ireland BBB+ 146 146 147 146 144 1.6 0.8 3.2 2.9 2.9 4.4 4.3 3.9 3.8 3.7 Israel A+ 43 40 40 41 43 0.9 -2.3 2 4.6 4.5 0.3 2.5 2.3 2.5 2.8 Italy BBB 35 34 37 38 40 2.1 0.1 3 4 2.8 -0.4 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.8 Jamaica B- 48 51 57 62 67 0 1 1.5 2 2 -12.9 -10.5 -8.9 -7.5 -5.6 Japan AA- 20 22 23 23 23 -1.2 1.2 1.6 2 2.2 1 0.7 0.4 0.1 -0.1 Jordan BB- 61 65 69 71 73 -3.4 5.3 6 6.4 8 -18.4 -12.2 -10.9 -9.7 -8.4 Kazakhstan BBB+ 47 40 42 42 43 4.2 -3 5 10 10 0.3 0.1 -1.5 -1.3 0.2 Kenya B+ 35 39 43 47 49 4.7 13 14 14 13 -10.5 -9.4 -8.5 -8.6 -8.7 Korea A+ 62 59 62 63 64 4.2 4.3 7.5 6.6 5.3 4.3 5.8 5.2 6.2 6.4 Kuwait AA 76 72 71 67 66 7.1 -2.4 2.2 -0.5 1.7 43.2 38.7 36.4 32.9 30.7 Latvia BBB+ 72 67 67 69 70 9.4 1 3.7 5 5.5 -2.5 -0.8 -2.3 -2.4 -3 Balance-Of-Payments Data
  • 29. 29Data as of 24th March 2014 © Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, 2014 e--Estimate. f--Forecast. LT FC--Long-term foreign currency. N/A--Not applicable. Table 3 Sovereign Risk Indicators: Balance-Of-Payments Data CARs/GDP (%) Real exports (% chg) Current account balance/GDP (%) LT FC rating 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f Lebanon B- 91 92 92 94 94 1.5 0.5 1 3 4 -3.9 -3.1 -3.3 -5 -6.7 Lithuania BBB 92 94 96 98 100 11.8 9.5 7 6.7 6.6 -0.2 0.2 -1 -1.7 -2.1 Luxembourg AAA 533 535 551 570 584 -1.9 2.3 3.3 3 3.7 6.5 6.3 6.5 6.7 6.7 Macedonia BB- 77 74 75 75 76 0 3 3 4.8 6 -3.1 -4.1 -5.2 -6.5 -6.2 Malaysia A- 92 88 89 88 86 -0.1 -0.3 4 5 4.9 6.1 3.8 2.7 2.9 3 Malta BBB+ 144 132 133 135 139 8.6 -5.6 4.1 4.6 4.3 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.1 1.2 Mexico BBB+ 36 34 34 33 32 4.2 1 4 6 6.4 -1.2 -1.5 -1.9 -2 -2.2 Mongolia BB- 57 48 46 43 41 -0.2 -0.2 12 10 10 -32.7 -27.4 -27.3 -22.3 -18.7 Montenegro BB- 56 58 56 58 59 -2.5 3.1 2.6 2.6 2.7 -18.7 -15.5 -17 -16.9 -16.8 Montserrat BBB- 62 60 63 61 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A -35.9 -37.7 -29.7 -27.4 -25.3 Morocco BBB- 42 42 43 44 45 2.7 3.3 5 6 6 -10.3 -7.9 -6.8 -5.2 -3.7 Mozambique B 36 36 36 37 38 7.8 8 9 9 8 -36.7 -37 -36.1 -36.1 -37 Netherlands AA+ 100 99 100 103 106 3.2 1.3 3 4.4 4.5 9.4 10 9.8 9.8 10.2 New Zealand AA 33 32 32 32 33 5.1 4.9 1.5 2 2.8 -4.6 -4.3 -4.5 -5.5 -5.6 Nigeria BB- 46 45 44 44 45 2.7 3 6 7.5 11 7.8 7 6 4.9 5.2 Norway AAA 51 48 48 48 48 1.1 -3.9 1.5 1.5 1.5 14.3 10.6 10.6 10.5 10.4 Oman A 72 73 73 72 72 4 2 3.1 3 3 10.5 9.1 9.2 6.7 4.1 Pakistan B- 21 21 22 23 24 -15.3 12.2 5 5.5 5.5 -2.1 -1.1 -2 -1.5 -2 Panama BBB 84 83 82 80 78 10.7 7.5 7 6.5 6 -9 -7.3 -6.1 -5.6 -5.1 Papua New Guinea B+ 44 41 42 52 45 -10.1 -0.2 20 59.1 -5.9 -50 -26.8 -1.9 12.1 9.4 Paraguay BB- 55 56 54 51 51 -6.7 20 10 7 5 0.5 4.2 2.9 1.7 1.3 Peru BBB+ 27 26 27 27 28 4.8 -2.5 6.5 9.9 10 -3.5 -4 -3.8 -3.3 -3 Philippines BBB- 37 36 37 36 35 8.9 0.8 6.2 7 7 2.9 2.1 2.4 2.3 2 Poland A- 51 53 54 56 57 3.9 4.2 5 5.5 6 -3.7 -2.3 -2.1 -2.7 -3.1 Portugal BB 48 49 51 53 54 3.2 5.8 4.5 4.5 4.8 -2 0.5 1.8 2.5 2.9 Qatar AA 79 76 69 63 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 32 29 21.7 16 13 Romania BB+ 46 47 48 51 52 -3 9.6 5.5 7.9 6.2 -4.4 -1.1 -0.8 -1 -1.6 Russia BBB 33 31 31 30 29 1.4 3.8 1.5 2 2 3.6 1.8 1.1 -0.2 -0.8 Rwanda B 26 26 26 26 26 34.3 6.5 8 8 9 -11.4 -10.1 -9.5 -8 -7.4 Saudi Arabia AA- 58 55 53 53 52 3 -1 1 1.8 1.5 22.5 19.6 15.4 14.4 12.4 Senegal B+ 41 42 44 45 46 4.5 4.4 4.6 4.8 5.1 -10.3 -9 -8.4 -8.4 -8.3 Serbia BB- 53 56 56 57 58 1.8 15 2 4 5.5 -10.7 -5.4 -3.4 -3.8 -3.7 Singapore AAA 219 213 219 223 226 1.4 3.6 4.6 4.9 4.9 17.4 18.4 16.3 16.2 16.2 Slovakia A 100 102 104 107 111 9.9 4.5 4.7 5.5 6 2.2 2.4 2.3 1.9 1.9 Slovenia A- 82 85 88 91 91 0.6 2.9 2.1 3.2 3.6 3.3 6.5 7.5 7.3 6.5 Balance-Of-Payments Data
  • 30. 30Data as of 24th March 2014 © Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, 2014 e--Estimate. f--Forecast. LT FC--Long-term foreign currency. N/A--Not applicable. Table 3 Sovereign Risk Indicators: Balance-Of-Payments Data CARs/GDP (%) Real exports (% chg) Current account balance/GDP (%) LT FC rating 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f South Africa BBB 31 33 32 32 31 0.4 4.2 3 4 3 -5.2 -5.8 -5.2 -5.2 -5.1 Spain BBB- 38 40 42 43 44 2.1 4.8 6.5 4.7 6 -1.1 1.4 1.7 2.3 2.5 Sri Lanka B+ 33 31 29 28 26 0.2 -2 3.2 4.5 5 -6.8 -5.5 -4.9 -4.3 -4.2 Suriname BB- 63 59 58 57 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 9.6 10.1 8.5 8 8.4 Sweden AAA 59 56 57 58 59 0.7 -0.9 4 4.6 5.5 6 6.2 6.5 6.5 6.6 Switzerland AAA 74 75 76 78 79 2.5 2 4.8 5.7 4.2 9.6 9.3 9.8 9.7 9.2 Taiwan AA- 80 79 79 78 77 0.1 3.8 4.7 3.7 3.8 10.7 11.7 11.4 11.6 11.9 Thailand BBB+ 81 84 87 88 90 3.1 4.2 5.2 5.8 6.4 -0.4 2.2 1.9 1.9 2.1 Trinidad and Tobago A 60 59 59 59 59 7.6 1.6 2.7 2.6 2.5 4 4.8 6 6.8 7.4 Turkey BB+ 27 26 27 27 27 16.7 2 5 5 5 -6.2 -7.9 -4.8 -4.6 -3.8 Uganda B 31 33 33 34 36 12.7 7 7 8 11 -9 -11.3 -13.1 -12.3 -10.5 Ukraine CCC 58 54 56 55 53 -7.7 -12.5 2 3 3 -8.2 -9.1 -7 -6.6 -6.3 United Kingdom AAA 43 43 40 41 41 1.1 0.8 3 3.8 5 -3.7 -4.2 -3.3 -2.5 -2.1 United States of America AA+ 19 19 20 20 21 3.5 2.7 5 4.5 5.9 -2.7 -2.3 -2 -2.2 -2.2 Uruguay BBB- 28 28 27 27 26 1.6 3 3.2 3.5 3.5 -5.3 -3.9 -3.2 -2.8 -2.8 Venezuela B- 27 28 32 34 N/A 1 5 5 5 N/A 2.9 4.6 4.4 4.9 N/A Vietnam BB- 85 81 78 76 75 4.7 4.5 6 7 6 5.8 1.7 0 -0.1 -0.5 Zambia B+ 46 48 48 48 49 10.5 4.2 6 9 10 3.5 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.6 Balance-Of-Payments Data
  • 31. 31Data as of 24th March 2014 © Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, 2014 e--Estimate. f--Forecast. LT FC--Long-term foreign currency. N/A--Not applicable. Table 3 Sovereign Risk Indicators: Balance-Of-Payments Data Current account balance/CARs (%) Net ext. borrowing / CARs (%) Reserves/CAPs (months) LT FC rating 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f Albania B -23.3 -21.3 -19.4 -15.2 -13 4.7 3.2 1.6 -1.2 -2.2 4.3 4.1 3.6 3.2 2.7 Angola BB- 19.2 19.6 15.7 12.2 10.8 -5.6 -11.4 -16.1 -14 -13.3 5.9 6.2 5.1 5.3 5.3 Argentina CCC+ 0.5 -6 -9.2 -10.7 -10.7 -12.8 -0.5 3.3 4.7 4.7 5.6 4.9 4 3.1 2.3 Aruba BBB+ 3.8 -6.2 -6 -5.7 -5.4 -4 2.8 1.9 0 -0.1 1 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.6 Australia AAA -12.8 -15.4 -16.2 -14.1 -11.9 2 -0.8 8.5 8.3 8.1 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 Austria AA+ 2.4 4 4.5 5.2 6 4.2 0 -1.4 -2.5 -3.4 1.2 1.2 1 1.2 1.1 Azerbaijan BBB- 37.6 31.3 27.4 23.5 19.6 -39.7 -27 -20.2 -18 -15.9 5 4.8 5.2 5.4 5.3 Bahamas, The BBB -36.2 -32.5 -27.4 -23.1 -23.2 27.3 20.2 15.7 11.7 11.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 Bahrain BBB 8.5 11.3 10.9 10.3 9.9 -23.7 -24.6 -24.5 -24.1 -23.6 2.4 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.8 Bangladesh BB- -1.1 5.7 5.5 5.6 5.9 -3 -9.9 -3.2 -3.1 -3.4 2.7 3.6 4.5 4.1 3.7 Barbados BB- -8.4 -10.4 -14.1 -13.7 -17.1 -4.4 2.2 -0.2 -0.2 1.7 0.1 -0.5 -1.1 -1.5 -1.9 Belarus B- -3.1 -9 -7.4 -8.8 -9.5 0.7 6.7 4.8 5.9 6.4 0.9 1 1.3 0.8 0.7 Belgium AA -2 -2.1 -1 0.4 0.5 5.3 2.2 -2.5 -3.9 -3.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 Belize B- -6.6 -2.7 -4 -5.3 -6.8 -6.5 0.9 2.4 4.6 4.9 0 0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.6 Bermuda AA- 23.8 34.2 22.3 22.5 22.7 -11.8 -34.2 -27.6 -27.7 -27.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Bolivia BB- 15 7 5.4 4.5 3.7 -20.2 -13.4 -11.5 -10.4 -9.3 12.2 12.1 12.2 12.6 12.8 Bosnia and Herzegovina B -19.6 -15.1 -13.5 -13.1 -11.9 13.2 6.8 7.7 7 5.8 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.3 Botswana A- -8 -0.7 2 3.3 2.8 7.6 -2.7 -5.5 -6.6 -6 10.7 9.4 9.7 9.8 9.8 Brazil BBB -18.2 -27.4 -25.4 -23.5 -21.9 -5.1 0.8 3.9 2 -0.3 12 11.8 11.2 10.7 10.3 Bulgaria BBB -1.7 2.6 1.5 0.1 -0.6 -4 -7 -4.6 -3.1 -1.7 2.1 2.3 1.8 2.4 2.6 Burkina Faso B -2.7 -15.4 -18.3 -19.4 -20 -6.1 4.8 5.4 5.5 5 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 Cambodia B -13.1 -12.2 -12.3 -12.5 -12.8 -6.1 -5.2 -5.1 -4.3 -3.2 4.7 5.2 5.2 5.1 4.9 Cameroon B -11.8 -12.5 -12.1 -10.9 -8.8 2.3 3.6 3.8 3.3 2.5 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.4 Canada AAA -9.9 -9.4 -7.8 -7.1 -7.2 15.4 4 -2 -5.5 -7.9 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 Cape Verde B -19 -15.1 -14.4 -11 -9.8 11.5 7.7 4.9 1 -0.1 0.5 -0.1 0.1 0.5 0.7 Chile AA- -9.3 -11.4 -8.3 -6 -3.7 3.6 0 -0.1 -0.4 -0.4 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.1 3.9 China AA- 7.9 7.4 10.3 9.6 9.4 -17.1 -17.5 -14.4 -13.7 -13.7 17.2 17.1 18 16.7 16.4 Colombia BBB -15 -16.2 -15.9 -15.5 -15.2 -6.9 -4.9 -4.6 -4.4 -4.1 4.4 4.8 5.2 5.6 5.9 Congo B+ -1.7 -3.7 0.7 -1 0.2 -19.8 -24.3 -23.3 -23 -24.3 3.8 2.8 3.3 3.8 4.1 Congo, DR B- -17 -21.5 -22.3 -22.9 -22.3 6.5 10.9 12 12.8 13.6 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 Cook Islands B+ 20.5 22 22.9 23.2 26.2 -20.5 -22 -22.9 -23.5 -26.9 0 0 0 0 0 Costa Rica BB -13.4 -13.6 -12.2 -11.8 -9.8 -9.5 -0.1 0.4 -1.2 -2.5 2.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.4 Croatia BB -0.7 0.4 -0.2 -2 -2.4 -3.5 -3.4 -3.7 -0.9 -1.3 5.8 5.9 6.7 5.2 4.6 Curacao A- -32.7 -19.7 -17.7 -15.8 -14.2 15.2 3.6 1 0 -0.8 1.9 1.9 1.2 1.3 1.2 Balance-Of-Payments Data
  • 32. 32Data as of 24th March 2014 © Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, 2014 e--Estimate. f--Forecast. LT FC--Long-term foreign currency. N/A--Not applicable. Table 3 Sovereign Risk Indicators: Balance-Of-Payments Data Current account balance/CARs (%) Net ext. borrowing / CARs (%) Reserves/CAPs (months) LT FC rating 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f Cyprus B- -11.3 -2.5 2.1 1.7 2.6 -49.5 -10.4 -2.5 -0.2 -6.7 0.9 1.1 1 1.3 1.3 Czech Republic AA- -1.5 -1.3 -1.5 -1.4 -1.2 -3.6 -0.9 0 0.2 -0.5 2.9 3.2 3.9 3.1 2.9 Denmark AAA 9.2 8 7.5 7.4 7 -2.1 -4.6 -4.1 -4 -3.7 5.5 5.4 5.1 5.9 6 Dominican Republic B+ -22.9 -14.8 -12.7 -12.4 -12.6 4.1 3.4 1.6 1.9 2.5 1.5 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.4 Ecuador B -0.6 -3.1 -1.4 -1.2 -0.6 -2.3 0.4 -1.2 -1.3 -1.8 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 Egypt B- -17.2 -10.1 -11.6 -10.7 -8.1 19.8 7.2 2.9 1.5 1.1 2.8 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.4 El Salvador BB- -11.5 -13.1 -9.9 -7.8 -5.5 5 9.8 5 2.1 -0.4 2.5 2.9 2.4 2.8 3 Estonia AA- -1.7 -1 -2.1 -2.2 -2.2 -2.5 -2.7 -0.6 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 Fiji B -2 -25.3 -7.9 -9.2 -10.6 -7.7 9.9 -0.4 1 2.5 3.5 3.2 3.5 3.2 2.9 Finland AAA -3.4 -1.7 -3.1 -2.5 -2.5 13.1 12.5 4.9 7.2 5.7 1 1 1 1 0.9 France AA -5.8 -5.6 -5.6 -5.9 -5.9 10 3.5 3.5 3.9 3.9 2 2 1.5 1.8 1.8 Gabon BB- 29.9 25.8 19.8 13.6 8.5 -37.2 -32.3 -26.4 -20.3 -15.3 0.4 0.6 2.1 2.7 2.3 Georgia BB- -21.5 -10.2 -8.5 -9.5 -11.4 3 -2 -2.3 -2.8 0.7 2.7 2.7 2.4 3.1 3.5 Germany AAA 11.7 12.5 11.4 11.1 10.1 -6.6 -7.9 -6.9 -6.9 -6.5 1.6 1.6 1.2 1.3 1.2 Ghana B -25.5 -27 -25.2 -22.1 -18.4 6.9 10.9 9.8 7 3.9 2.9 2.6 1.8 1.2 0.9 Greece B- -7.9 2 2 2.4 0.6 173.3 -0.2 0.8 0.4 2.2 1 1.1 0.8 1 1 Grenada SD -90 -89.1 -79.8 -73 -70.3 62.8 50.1 50.8 44.3 41.9 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 Guatemala BB -7.8 -8.6 -8.9 -8.4 -8.4 1.2 1.5 1.9 1.4 1.6 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.5 Honduras B -14.2 -17.2 -10 -10.6 -15.3 4.2 5.9 -2.2 -1.3 3.8 1.9 1.8 1.8 2.4 2.7 Hong Kong AAA 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.9 6.9 0.7 0.5 0.2 2.5 2.5 2.2 2.2 2.2 Hungary BB 1 2.3 1.4 0.6 -0.1 -7.2 -6.4 -5 -3.8 -3 4.5 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.6 Iceland BBB- 0.9 10.1 5.4 4.4 3.6 -50.2 -9 -15 -13.9 -13.3 8.3 5.9 5.1 5.3 5.2 India BBB- -16.6 -5.3 -5.6 -5.2 -5.4 7.8 1.3 0.2 0.8 1.9 5.7 6 5.1 4.4 3.9 Indonesia BB+ -10.9 -13.1 -14.6 -13.9 -12 3.8 1.8 4.8 3.5 1.8 5.4 5.5 4.7 4 3.5 Ireland BBB+ 3 3 2.7 2.6 2.6 -38.1 -19.8 -16 -14.3 -13.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 Israel A+ 0.8 6.3 5.9 5.9 6.5 -3.6 -9.6 -7.6 -4.1 -3.1 8.2 8.5 8.6 8.4 8.2 Italy BBB -1.1 1.4 2.6 3.1 4.6 1.4 1.5 -6 -6.9 -8.2 2.9 3.1 2.4 2.3 2.2 Jamaica B- -27.1 -20.6 -15.7 -12.2 -8.4 29.3 15.7 10.6 7 3.3 3 2.6 2.8 3 3.1 Japan AA- 5.2 3.2 1.9 0.6 -0.4 0.2 -12.3 2.8 3.7 6.4 14.1 14.7 14.2 14 13.4 Jordan BB- -30 -18.6 -15.9 -13.7 -11.5 21.8 6.3 5.3 3 0.8 5.9 4.1 4.3 4.3 4.4 Kazakhstan BBB+ 0.7 0.1 -3.6 -3.1 0.5 -11 -2.6 -6.5 -5.7 -9.2 3.7 3.9 3.4 3.1 2.7 Kenya B+ -30.3 -24 -19.8 -18.4 -17.8 27 16 12.7 11.9 11.5 2.8 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 Korea A+ 6.9 9.8 8.4 9.7 10 -4.5 -6.7 -5.6 -6.1 -6.9 6.2 6.7 6.2 6.2 6.3 Kuwait AA 56.6 53.8 51.6 48.8 46.7 -49 -46.1 -43.8 -40.6 -38.3 5.9 6.2 5 5.3 5.3 Latvia BBB+ -3.5 -1.2 -3.4 -3.4 -4.2 -4.4 -4.2 0 -1.1 -0.9 1.5 2 4.2 3.1 2.8 Balance-Of-Payments Data
  • 33. 33Data as of 24th March 2014 © Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, 2014 e--Estimate. f--Forecast. LT FC--Long-term foreign currency. N/A--Not applicable. Table 3 Sovereign Risk Indicators: Balance-Of-Payments Data Current account balance/CARs (%) Net ext. borrowing / CARs (%) Reserves/CAPs (months) LT FC rating 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f Lebanon B- -4.3 -3.4 -3.6 -5.3 -7 -5.6 -4.3 -5.2 -5.4 -3.6 11.8 12.4 10.5 11.3 10.6 Lithuania BBB -0.3 0.2 -1.1 -1.7 -2.1 -2.2 -4 -2 -1.1 -0.6 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 Luxembourg AAA 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 -58.8 -35.6 -41.8 -41.3 -40.2 0 0 0 0 0 Macedonia BB- -4.1 -5.6 -7 -8.6 -8.2 2.1 3.3 4.7 5.7 4.6 2 2.1 1.8 1.7 1.4 Malaysia A- 6.6 4.3 3 3.3 3.5 -10.8 -3.5 -4.2 -4.2 -4.5 6.1 6.3 5.8 5.7 5.6 Malta BBB+ 1.5 1.4 1.4 0.8 0.9 13.3 4.9 8.2 10.3 2 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 Mexico BBB+ -3.4 -4.3 -5.6 -6.1 -6.8 2.3 -1.5 2.7 2.4 2.3 4.1 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 Mongolia BB- -56.9 -56.8 -59.4 -51.4 -45.5 -19.4 18.8 13.7 -8.7 -17.8 2.7 5.2 2.4 2.3 2.8 Montenegro BB- -33.1 -26.9 -30.2 -29.2 -28.6 6.8 5.9 7.8 7.5 7.2 1.6 1.7 2.1 2.1 2.2 Montserrat BBB- -58.1 -63.1 -47.2 -45 -42.8 12.6 15.7 2.7 -0.1 -2.8 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 Morocco BBB- -24.4 -18.7 -15.6 -11.8 -8.1 18.3 10.5 7.6 4 0.5 4.9 4 4 2.8 2.9 Mozambique B -100.6 -103.2 -99.2 -96.8 -98.3 -7.3 -0.1 3 2.9 2.5 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.2 Netherlands AA+ 9.4 10.1 9.8 9.6 9.6 0.5 -2 -2 -2.9 -2.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 New Zealand AA -13.9 -13.4 -14.2 -17.1 -16.8 13.4 11.7 11.6 12.9 12.8 4.1 3.8 3.3 3 3 Nigeria BB- 16.8 15.7 13.5 11.1 11.5 -28 -21.6 -19.1 -16.8 -17 4.3 5.1 4.2 3.9 3.7 Norway AAA 28.2 22.3 22.1 21.9 21.6 -11.4 -16.3 -9.6 -9.4 -9.2 3.2 3.3 3.6 3.8 3.9 Oman A 14.6 12.5 12.6 9.3 5.7 -15.9 -14.1 -14.2 -11 -7.3 3.6 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.5 Pakistan B- -9.7 -5 -9.2 -6.5 -8.1 8 2 3.3 -0.4 0.7 4.4 3.5 2 1.7 2 Panama BBB -10.7 -8.7 -7.5 -7 -6.5 0.8 -1.1 -2 -2.5 -2.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 Papua New Guinea B+ -113.7 -66 -4.4 23.2 20.7 87.2 10.2 -22.6 -27.7 -7.6 3.6 4.4 4.4 5.2 7 Paraguay BB- 0.9 7.5 5.5 3.3 2.5 -7.6 -10.5 -9.4 -7.4 -5.8 3.7 3 4.2 4.4 4.3 Peru BBB+ -13 -15.3 -14.2 -12.2 -10.7 -10.7 -10.1 -9.5 -9.4 -8.7 7.9 10 10 10.2 10.2 Philippines BBB- 7.7 5.8 6.4 6.3 5.6 -12.7 -11.1 -11.6 -12.2 -12 10.6 10.9 9.8 9.2 8.7 Poland A- -7.3 -4.3 -3.9 -4.8 -5.5 -0.5 0.8 -1.8 -1.7 -1.3 4.4 4.6 4.2 4.1 3.9 Portugal BB -4.2 1.1 3.5 4.7 5.4 -1.3 -4.5 -9.5 -10 -10.9 2.4 2.6 2 1.8 1.7 Qatar AA 40.7 37.9 31.2 25.5 21.5 -37.4 -31.4 -24 -17.5 -13.3 1.7 3.4 4.1 4.7 4.7 Romania BB+ -9.6 -2.2 -1.6 -2 -3 -3 -12.1 -10.4 -9.7 -8.3 6.8 6.1 6 5.7 5.3 Russia BBB 11 5.7 3.6 -0.7 -2.7 -10.5 7.5 -2.3 1.3 3.4 10.2 10.3 9.8 9.6 9 Rwanda B -44.5 -38.7 -36.8 -31.1 -29.1 26.4 13.9 13.7 8.8 6.6 5.8 3.8 4.6 4.3 4.3 Saudi Arabia AA- 38.9 35.4 29.3 27 23.8 -40.8 -38.1 -32.1 -29.9 -26.7 3.5 3.7 3.3 3.2 3.6 Senegal B+ -25 -21.2 -19.3 -18.8 -18.1 12.2 9.7 7.7 7.1 6.7 -0.1 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.4 Serbia BB- -20 -9.6 -6.1 -6.6 -6.4 18.8 5.8 -0.5 -0.8 -0.9 5.4 4.9 5 5.2 5.4 Singapore AAA 7.9 8.6 7.5 7.2 7.2 -12.8 -14.5 -7.9 -7.7 -7.6 5 5.4 5.3 5.1 5 Slovakia A 2.2 2.3 2.2 1.7 1.7 -6.1 -5.7 -3.2 -3.1 -3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Slovenia A- 4 7.7 8.6 8.1 7.1 -4.5 -6 -8.8 -8.3 -7.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.9 1.4 Balance-Of-Payments Data
  • 34. 34Data as of 24th March 2014 © Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, 2014 e--Estimate. f--Forecast. LT FC--Long-term foreign currency. N/A--Not applicable. Table 3 Sovereign Risk Indicators: Balance-Of-Payments Data Current account balance/CARs (%) Net ext. borrowing / CARs (%) Reserves/CAPs (months) LT FC rating 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f South Africa BBB -16.7 -17.6 -16.2 -16.4 -16.7 9.8 15.2 6.9 7.6 6.6 4.2 4.5 4.6 4.3 4.2 Spain BBB- -2.9 3.6 4.1 5.4 5.6 9.2 -23.1 -24.9 -27 -26.6 1.1 1.2 1 1 1 Sri Lanka B+ -20.5 -18 -16.9 -15.6 -16 14.2 10.5 9.6 7.9 8 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.3 Suriname BB- 15.4 17.2 14.8 14.2 15.7 -19.1 -22.4 -21 -21.4 -20.5 2.2 3.1 5.5 7.7 10.3 Sweden AAA 10.1 11 11.3 11.2 11.2 2.6 3 1.8 2.1 1.4 2.2 2.3 2.6 2.5 2.3 Switzerland AAA 13.1 12.4 12.9 12.5 11.7 -8.2 -7.6 -8.2 -7.9 -7.1 9.9 14.9 14.2 13.8 13.3 Taiwan AA- 13.3 14.8 14.4 14.9 15.4 -7 -12.7 -6.2 -6 -6.5 14.8 15.5 15.2 14.5 14.5 Thailand BBB+ -0.5 2.6 2.1 2.2 2.3 0.4 -4.5 -3.2 -3.3 -3.5 8.3 7.8 6.7 7.1 6.7 Trinidad and Tobago A 6.7 8.1 10.3 11.6 12.6 -9.4 -10.8 -12.1 -12.7 -13.6 9.4 8.5 8.6 8.6 8.7 Turkey BB+ -22.8 -30.2 -17.6 -16.8 -14.3 15.6 25.4 13.5 9.1 6.4 4.1 5.1 6.6 4.8 4.2 Uganda B -28.9 -34.5 -39.2 -35.8 -29.3 3.2 8.3 13.6 12.2 6.8 3.7 4 3.4 3.2 2.9 Ukraine CCC -14.1 -16.7 -12.5 -11.9 -11.9 7.1 12.1 8 5.6 5.3 3.1 2.4 2.2 1.3 1.3 United Kingdom AAA -8.7 -9.8 -8.3 -6.2 -5.1 16.5 2.2 7.8 7.4 7.1 1 1.1 1 1 0.9 United States of America AA+ -14.2 -11.9 -10 -10.8 -10.7 18.3 26.5 20.7 22.9 22.6 1.9 1.9 1.4 1.4 1.3 Uruguay BBB- -19 -14.2 -11.9 -10.5 -10.6 -1 -3.9 -5.1 -5.9 -5.6 5.5 7.8 9.3 9.5 9.7 Venezuela B- 10.8 16.4 13.9 14.3 N/A -11.5 -17.1 -14.6 -15 N/A 3.8 4.1 2.4 2.2 N/A Vietnam BB- 6.8 2.2 0 -0.1 -0.7 -13.7 -9.1 -7 -7.2 -6.2 1.4 2.2 2.6 2.8 2.8 Zambia B+ 7.7 1.9 1.7 0.5 1.2 -33.3 -16.7 -25.8 -13.4 -11.9 2.9 3.2 2.7 2.4 1.9 Balance-Of-Payments Data
  • 35. 35Data as of 24th March 2014 © Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, 2014 e--Estimate. f--Forecast. LT FC--Long-term foreign currency. N/A--Not applicable. Table 3 Sovereign Risk Indicators: Balance-Of-Payments Data Gross ext. fin. needs/(CARs + usable res.) (%) (Gross ext. fin. needs - equity)/(CARs + usable res.) (%) Net FDI/GDP (%) LT FC rating 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f Albania B 116 114 115 113 112 104 103 103 102 101 7.6 8 8 8 8 Angola BB- 67 64 68 69 69 76 69 68 67 68 -8.3 -2 0.6 1.5 1.8 Argentina CCC+ 81 86 90 101 107 72 81 86 96 102 2.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 Aruba BBB+ 101 121 122 123 124 101 119 118 118 119 -5.6 2.6 2.9 2.7 2.6 Australia AAA 253 255 260 258 254 243 241 251 251 248 3.2 3.2 2.1 1.6 1.2 Austria AA+ 220 199 196 188 181 225 203 199 190 183 -3.4 -2 -2 -2 -2 Azerbaijan BBB- 58 62 62 64 65 56 66 68 68 68 1.2 -2.5 -4 -3 -2 Bahamas, The BBB 143 148 142 138 139 134 136 130 126 128 4.4 5.7 5.5 5.3 5 Bahrain BBB 457 409 356 313 273 445 399 345 301 262 -0.1 0.4 0.7 1 1.1 Bangladesh BB- 89 79 75 77 78 86 77 79 80 82 1.1 1 0.8 0.8 0.8 Barbados BB- 124 135 146 150 162 111 127 130 134 143 7.7 4.6 8.2 8.3 8.9 Belarus B- 123 125 125 132 135 121 122 123 129 132 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 Belgium AA 253 231 234 233 230 256 231 231 229 226 -0.6 -0.5 3 3 3 Belize B- 126 120 123 124 131 114 121 123 121 127 12.2 5.3 5.9 5.7 5.4 Bermuda AA- 334 312 352 325 320 346 312 347 320 315 6.8 0.9 2.2 2.2 2.1 Bolivia BB- 49 51 51 50 50 46 48 48 47 47 3.9 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.5 Bosnia and Herzegovina B 158 154 151 153 155 154 148 147 149 150 2.1 2.8 2.3 2.5 2.5 Botswana A- 60 63 62 62 64 60 62 60 61 62 2.1 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 Brazil BBB 66 70 68 71 69 55 59 59 61 58 3 3.2 2.5 2.5 2.5 Bulgaria BBB 122 116 119 113 109 119 114 117 112 108 3 2.8 2 2 1.5 Burkina Faso B 112 125 131 131 133 109 122 124 124 124 0.7 1 1.9 2.4 2.9 Cambodia B 84 89 91 92 94 73 79 81 83 85 10.9 9.5 9.3 8.7 8 Cameroon B 116 118 123 122 121 109 111 117 117 116 2.5 2 2 2 2 Canada AAA 168 172 167 164 164 173 167 158 153 150 -0.7 1.1 0.7 1.2 1.7 Cape Verde B 149 165 159 152 149 142 160 151 144 142 4 2.8 5.3 5.3 5.3 Chile AA- 103 107 104 102 100 99 99 98 97 97 3.4 4 3.3 2.9 2.8 China AA- 53 53 50 54 55 49 49 48 52 54 2.3 2.8 1.5 1.5 1.5 Colombia BBB 101 98 94 91 89 85 83 80 78 76 3.5 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.2 Congo B+ 82 87 82 80 78 66 65 64 62 60 16.4 20 17 19 20 Congo, DR B- 119 123 131 138 144 110 115 123 131 139 14.8 10 9.5 9.1 8.3 Cook Islands B+ N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0 0 0 0 0 Costa Rica BB 107 101 99 99 98 89 91 90 89 88 4.2 4.6 4.7 5 5 Croatia BB 112 106 99 107 108 110 105 98 105 106 2.5 1 1.5 1.5 2 Curacao A- 144 134 144 141 141 131 121 130 128 128 5.8 5.8 5.6 5.4 5.2 Balance-Of-Payments Data
  • 36. 36Data as of 24th March 2014 © Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, 2014 e--Estimate. f--Forecast. LT FC--Long-term foreign currency. N/A--Not applicable. Table 3 Sovereign Risk Indicators: Balance-Of-Payments Data Gross ext. fin. needs/(CARs + usable res.) (%) (Gross ext. fin. needs - equity)/(CARs + usable res.) (%) Net FDI/GDP (%) LT FC rating 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f Cyprus B- 688 710 554 455 404 632 699 554 456 400 6.8 27 10 2 2 Czech Republic AA- 102 98 93 96 96 99 97 93 96 96 3.1 1.5 0.9 0.7 1 Denmark AAA 188 182 190 180 175 193 185 192 182 177 -1.7 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 Dominican Republic B+ 121 119 116 115 114 105 108 106 105 105 6.1 3.3 3.2 3 2.9 Ecuador B 105 108 108 108 107 103 105 106 105 105 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 Egypt B- 98 97 102 97 95 100 94 95 90 89 1.5 1.1 1.5 1 1 El Salvador BB- 104 103 106 102 99 100 102 103 99 96 2.2 0.7 1.6 1.9 1.9 Estonia AA- 145 148 146 143 141 144 147 146 143 141 2.5 2.4 2 2 2 Fiji B 85 102 90 91 93 78 91 85 86 88 6.9 9 4.4 4.6 4.8 Finland AAA 506 462 375 358 322 516 472 376 362 325 -1.6 -2.8 -1 -1 -1 France AA 405 388 391 369 361 408 386 390 367 360 -0.5 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 Gabon BB- 80 88 86 87 93 73 82 80 82 87 4.6 4 4 4 4 Georgia BB- 115 111 109 104 101 102 102 102 95 94 3.9 5.3 5 6 5 Germany AAA 178 180 185 182 180 182 184 189 186 184 -1.8 -1.6 -1.6 -1.4 -1.2 Ghana B 112 116 124 126 124 99 104 112 114 112 8.1 7 7 7 7 Greece B- 440 391 364 340 325 595 397 372 347 333 0.4 1.3 2 2 2 Grenada SD 201 199 185 181 180 191 178 173 169 168 3.8 6.4 3.5 3.4 3.2 Guatemala BB 93 96 95 94 95 88 90 89 89 90 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2 Honduras B 102 106 102 98 99 94 97 93 89 90 5.8 5.8 5.5 5.5 5.5 Hong Kong AAA 168 165 174 164 159 170 171 175 165 160 -5 -5.4 -3 -3 -3 Hungary BB 107 106 102 105 103 104 105 102 104 102 2.1 0.2 0.2 1 1 Iceland BBB- 91 96 90 87 86 62 97 83 80 80 31.1 -0.3 5 5 5 India BBB- 93 87 90 91 93 88 84 86 88 90 1.2 1 1.1 1.1 1 Indonesia BB+ 93 96 103 105 104 89 89 97 97 97 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.7 Ireland BBB+ 514 469 460 431 406 479 452 446 419 395 9.4 5.2 5 6 5.2 Israel A+ 85 78 77 73 71 83 77 76 76 74 2.8 2.4 2.8 1.2 1.2 Italy BBB 204 207 207 211 208 204 210 204 209 206 -0.4 -0.2 1 1 1 Jamaica B- 113 111 114 111 102 114 107 110 107 98 2 2.7 3.1 3.4 3.6 Japan AA- N/A N/A N/A N/A 139 N/A N/A N/A N/A 142 -2 -2.7 -2 -1.6 -1.4 Jordan BB- 101 107 104 103 99 96 98 97 95 92 4.8 6.5 5.7 6 6.3 Kazakhstan BBB+ 100 104 114 114 113 92 102 106 107 106 5.8 3.7 5 4.5 4.5 Kenya B+ 118 113 112 109 111 117 108 107 105 107 0.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 Korea A+ 83 78 78 77 74 85 80 80 79 76 -1.7 -1.1 -1.2 -1.2 -0.9 Kuwait AA 48 50 53 56 57 57 58 62 65 66 -3.1 -3 -3 -3 -3 Balance-Of-Payments Data
  • 37. 37Data as of 24th March 2014 © Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, 2014 e--Estimate. f--Forecast. LT FC--Long-term foreign currency. N/A--Not applicable. Table 3 Sovereign Risk Indicators: Balance-Of-Payments Data Gross ext. fin. needs/(CARs + usable res.) (%) (Gross ext. fin. needs - equity)/(CARs + usable res.) (%) Net FDI/GDP (%) LT FC rating 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f Latvia BBB+ 178 175 154 160 160 175 173 153 158 157 3.2 1.5 1.9 2.7 3 Lebanon B- 89 88 98 91 92 85 85 94 86 87 7.4 4 5 7 7 Lithuania BBB 127 122 121 121 120 127 120 120 120 119 0.7 2.3 2 2 2 Luxembourg AAA 661 688 670 645 626 603 653 629 605 587 36.8 33.9 23.7 28.5 28.5 Macedonia BB- 118 116 121 127 127 116 114 119 124 124 1 1.5 1.5 2 2.5 Malaysia A- 90 91 95 95 96 87 92 95 95 95 -2.3 -0.4 -1.5 -1.5 -1.5 Malta BBB+ 400 417 424 412 393 416 424 433 423 397 0 2.5 3.3 4 5 Mexico BBB+ 86 87 86 85 86 85 82 84 83 82 -0.4 2 1 1.2 1.4 Mongolia BB- 127 103 132 132 123 72 81 99 87 77 42.9 17.3 20 25 25 Montenegro BB- 164 153 145 142 139 142 135 127 125 122 14.7 12.5 13 13 13 Montserrat BBB- 150 154 142 143 140 141 145 133 132 128 5.6 5.4 6.2 6.6 7 Morocco BBB- 96 100 100 108 106 92 95 94 102 100 2.6 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 Mozambique B 159 161 155 157 161 91 95 89 90 95 36.2 35 35 35 34 Netherlands AA+ 263 257 256 252 243 271 263 263 258 249 1 1 1 1.3 1.3 New Zealand AA 245 250 229 233 229 244 249 227 230 225 1.1 0.4 1.5 2 2 Nigeria BB- 77 78 75 78 77 69 73 71 73 73 2.1 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 Norway AAA 176 198 192 186 175 190 203 202 196 185 -0.6 -1.7 -1 -1 -1 Oman A 87 92 90 92 93 86 90 89 90 91 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Pakistan B- 94 99 112 109 107 93 97 107 103 101 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.3 1.5 Panama BBB 133 129 132 129 129 124 120 123 120 120 8.3 8.1 7.8 7.5 7.3 Papua New Guinea B+ 161 161 81 71 65 145 127 61 67 71 12.2 5.6 11.3 1.5 1.6 Paraguay BB- 83 83 78 78 78 78 80 75 75 76 1.1 1.5 1.9 1.9 1.8 Peru BBB+ 74 71 72 71 71 62 58 60 60 61 6 5.5 5.3 4.9 4.5 Philippines BBB- 59 61 61 62 64 57 58 58 59 60 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 Poland A- 98 93 94 93 94 96 93 92 91 91 1.1 0.1 0.9 1.2 1.4 Portugal BB 241 219 219 204 194 241 219 216 201 191 4 0.7 1.5 1.8 2 Qatar AA 90 88 91 92 94 89 92 94 96 98 -0.8 -1 -1 -1 -1 Romania BB+ 96 90 87 86 86 90 84 81 81 81 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 Russia BBB 63 66 71 74 76 62 71 72 74 76 0.1 -1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 Rwanda B 98 111 105 105 107 93 103 98 98 100 2.3 3 2.8 2.8 2.8 Saudi Arabia AA- 55 57 62 64 64 53 55 60 61 62 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 Senegal B+ 165 138 146 156 161 159 132 140 149 155 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.5 Serbia BB- 107 102 99 98 96 106 100 94 93 91 0.8 2 3.5 4 4 Singapore AAA 165 168 168 166 164 161 164 167 165 164 16.7 12.5 7 7 7 Balance-Of-Payments Data
  • 38. 38Data as of 24th March 2014 © Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, 2014 e--Estimate. f--Forecast. LT FC--Long-term foreign currency. N/A--Not applicable. Table 3 Sovereign Risk Indicators: Balance-Of-Payments Data Gross ext. fin. needs/(CARs + usable res.) (%) (Gross ext. fin. needs - equity)/(CARs + usable res.) (%) Net FDI/GDP (%) LT FC rating 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f Slovak Republic A 136 126 131 129 128 134 124 131 129 127 3.2 1.8 0.5 1 1 Slovenia A- 142 138 138 131 127 141 139 137 131 126 0.5 -1.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 South Africa BBB 104 109 110 111 112 100 108 103 105 105 0.4 0.7 1.5 1.7 1.7 Spain BBB- 298 258 248 236 221 305 241 230 217 203 2.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 Sri Lanka B+ 112 119 120 119 119 108 114 115 114 114 1.4 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.5 Suriname BB- 77 72 65 58 52 75 69 61 54 49 2.1 2.9 3.5 4 2.5 Sweden AAA 213 217 211 210 208 224 229 222 221 219 -2.4 -4.5 -4.5 -4.7 -4.4 Switzerland AAA 180 153 149 146 143 183 155 151 147 145 -5.5 -5 -5 -5 -5 Taiwan AA- 58 57 58 59 59 61 58 61 63 63 -2.1 -2.1 -3 -3.5 -3.5 Thailand BBB+ 71 73 76 73 74 71 72 75 73 73 -0.5 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.8 Trinidad and Tobago A 59 61 60 59 58 58 60 59 59 58 3.5 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.5 Turkey BB+ 136 135 128 135 137 131 131 125 130 131 1.2 1.2 0.8 1.8 1.8 Uganda B 105 106 115 115 112 87 88 97 98 95 7.9 8 8 7.5 7.5 Ukraine CCC 137 151 158 167 161 131 147 155 161 155 3.8 2 2 3 3 United Kingdom AAA 916 877 837 792 753 923 870 837 794 755 -0.6 5.5 1 0.1 0 United States of America AA+ 309 293 302 307 311 312 306 312 318 322 -1.4 -1 -1.1 -1.1 -1 Uruguay BBB- 100 82 77 77 75 87 72 68 68 67 5.4 4.9 4.6 4.4 4.2 Venezuela B- 90 86 96 97 N/A 90 85 96 96 N/A 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 N/A Vietnam BB- 91 89 88 86 86 85 83 82 80 80 4.6 4.7 4.5 4.6 4.6 Zambia B+ 87 90 93 94 96 68 79 76 85 89 10.7 6.8 8 5.3 4 Balance-Of-Payments Data
  • 39. 39Data as of 24th March 2014 © Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, 2014 e--Estimate. f--Forecast. LT FC--Long-term foreign currency. N/A--Not applicable. Table 4 Sovereign Risk Indicators: External Balance Sheet Net ext. liabilities/CARs (%) Gross ext. debt/CARs (%) Gross public-sector ext. debt/CARs (%) LT FC rating 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f Albania B 76 76 71 65 59 91 85 75 65 54 51 47 42 38 33 Angola BB- -55 -68 -73 -70 -63 30 27 25 24 22 17 16 15 15 14 Argentina CCC+ -59 -55 -57 -56 -63 101 99 104 103 103 70 67 69 67 67 Aruba BBB+ 74 130 133 136 138 44 84 90 94 95 25 44 45 46 46 Australia AAA 228 224 255 257 257 376 386 422 414 406 81 75 86 87 88 Austria AA+ -2 -5 -11 -16 -21 286 274 264 252 236 96 96 95 92 88 Azerbaijan BBB- -83 -97 -103 -106 -106 24 22 21 17 15 11 10 9 7 6 Bahamas, The BBB 187 206 209 203 202 52 60 60 58 58 37 45 45 44 43 Bahrain BBB -89 -100 -103 -105 -107 445 409 347 292 243 20 24 22 20 18 Bangladesh BB- 22 3 4 -1 -6 68 65 58 53 44 60 56 50 45 39 Barbados BB- 32 46 74 82 79 78 82 90 82 81 63 66 76 69 68 Belarus B- 60 60 70 76 80 60 62 67 70 72 24 26 29 31 31 Belgium AA -49 -46 -44 -42 -39 208 210 211 212 208 60 58 56 55 52 Belize B- 198 204 211 220 231 107 106 105 105 104 89 88 88 87 86 Bermuda AA- -470 -433 -514 -540 -552 394 344 402 398 391 32 46 53 55 55 Bolivia BB- -47 -45 -49 -51 -53 36 37 35 32 30 27 29 27 25 24 Bosnia and Herzegovina B 135 132 143 147 147 135 132 133 134 131 58 58 60 57 52 Botswana A- -82 -71 -68 -66 -62 51 49 51 50 49 23 18 13 8 7 Brazil BBB 277 256 267 268 272 161 161 167 165 165 66 70 75 75 76 Bulgaria BBB 108 95 89 80 73 75 68 65 60 55 12 10 10 10 10 Burkina Faso B 48 56 63 72 79 103 111 107 105 100 84 87 84 82 75 Cambodia B 76 78 81 84 86 71 71 71 72 73 49 46 46 45 45 Cameroon B 33 38 40 37 31 53 54 54 52 45 30 26 25 23 18 Canada AAA 48 55 59 61 65 205 208 202 194 188 86 87 84 81 78 Cape Verde B 224 211 209 198 192 169 162 160 150 143 108 106 100 91 84 Chile AA- 44 55 58 59 58 76 79 75 71 67 6 6 6 5 5 China AA- -82 -89 -82 -82 -83 30 37 41 45 49 1 2 2 2 2 Colombia BBB 109 119 126 131 136 94 91 86 81 76 51 49 46 43 41 Congo B+ 132 128 112 102 94 36 35 31 28 25 34 32 29 26 23 Congo, DR B- 8 25 42 57 70 71 81 93 106 118 45 38 35 33 32 Cook Islands B+ 1 19 18 18 18 22 25 24 24 25 22 25 24 24 25 Costa Rica BB 86 95 98 107 109 67 70 65 62 56 31 39 36 34 31 Croatia BB 184 172 175 169 160 177 177 171 167 160 40 48 52 53 51 Curacao A- -41 -27 -18 -14 -12 78 75 89 88 86 35 33 43 42 41 Cyprus B- 139 162 152 124 99 746 642 590 552 517 58 107 133 148 152 External Balance Sheet
  • 40. 40Data as of 24th March 2014 © Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, 2014 e--Estimate. f--Forecast. LT FC--Long-term foreign currency. N/A--Not applicable. Table 4 Sovereign Risk Indicators: External Balance Sheet Net ext. liabilities/CARs (%) Gross ext. debt/CARs (%) Gross public-sector ext. debt/CARs (%) LT FC rating 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f Czech Republic AA- 60 56 59 55 52 57 58 57 54 51 17 18 18 17 16 Denmark AAA -54 -54 -63 -69 -73 263 249 244 241 234 33 34 35 36 35 Dominican Republic B+ 170 152 145 140 135 101 97 95 95 94 70 68 68 69 70 Ecuador B 75 72 75 82 89 70 67 69 76 83 37 37 41 48 56 Egypt B- 85 97 108 107 102 54 65 68 64 62 44 56 60 57 56 El Salvador BB- 126 135 133 132 130 115 116 116 115 115 71 69 68 66 64 Estonia AA- 53 47 45 43 41 80 76 76 73 71 7 8 8 8 7 Fiji B 103 122 117 112 109 37 42 36 32 29 22 23 21 19 18 Finland AAA -38 -33 -29 -25 -22 569 483 444 391 386 112 106 120 125 124 France AA 48 47 47 51 55 682 640 619 592 573 153 145 139 133 129 Gabon BB- 17 11 12 20 33 43 42 42 42 42 22 22 21 22 22 Georgia BB- 182 176 158 149 144 122 113 105 102 101 56 53 49 47 45 Germany AAA -72 -80 -87 -93 -96 244 235 227 220 209 87 77 72 67 64 Ghana B 104 122 133 134 127 73 73 71 66 60 46 44 45 43 41 Greece B- 370 339 320 288 259 755 652 622 579 537 426 385 371 344 317 Grenada SD 878 883 862 858 855 399 401 384 382 379 320 325 310 309 308 Guatemala BB 50 52 53 54 54 79 79 78 76 72 36 36 36 36 34 Honduras B 59 90 102 105 113 38 56 62 62 62 29 45 50 51 51 Hong Kong AAA -116 -110 -102 -95 -89 121 129 120 113 106 0 0 0 0 0 Hungary BB 103 94 88 85 80 102 91 84 83 78 57 52 47 46 42 Iceland BBB- 1 -19 -15 -11 -6 164 149 129 124 122 74 71 64 62 60 India BBB- 55 52 47 41 36 66 64 59 52 47 16 16 16 14 13 Indonesia BB+ 188 209 222 196 175 114 122 124 106 92 57 57 60 50 41 Ireland BBB+ 79 73 68 64 60 606 555 520 492 460 53 43 42 41 40 Israel A+ -72 -75 -80 -86 -89 61 58 50 47 45 8 7 7 7 6 Italy BBB 58 62 72 82 89 329 348 347 340 328 135 140 136 135 127 Jamaica B- 273 278 272 254 234 172 181 181 171 160 135 137 134 124 114 Japan AA- -294 -315 -316 -309 -302 260 275 273 267 262 91 98 97 95 93 Jordan BB- 152 146 141 137 129 100 99 95 91 84 40 41 40 40 37 Kazakhstan BBB+ 39 50 55 53 46 72 85 93 90 83 5 6 6 6 6 Kenya B+ 12 30 43 55 66 97 96 99 103 107 66 68 74 74 78 Korea A+ 14 3 -5 -14 -22 58 54 48 44 40 18 17 15 13 12 Kuwait AA -336 -392 -428 -471 -503 29 30 32 32 31 4 4 4 4 4 Latvia BBB+ 94 98 101 99 95 176 178 171 163 152 46 45 45 42 38 Lebanon B- 16 38 33 41 49 112 116 114 111 110 24 24 24 25 25 External Balance Sheet
  • 41. 41Data as of 24th March 2014 © Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, 2014 e--Estimate. f--Forecast. LT FC--Long-term foreign currency. N/A--Not applicable. Table 4 Sovereign Risk Indicators: External Balance Sheet Net ext. liabilities/CARs (%) Gross ext. debt/CARs (%) Gross public-sector ext. debt/CARs (%) LT FC rating 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f Lithuania BBB 59 51 45 42 40 74 64 58 56 53 40 34 30 28 26 Luxembourg AAA -33 -31 -30 -29 -28 998 947 923 887 860 2 2 2 2 2 Macedonia BB- 74 78 80 84 86 73 78 80 81 82 32 36 36 36 36 Malaysia A- 2 2 1 0 -1 60 64 65 65 65 25 26 26 25 24 Malta BBB+ -18 -7 -3 5 12 346 372 366 350 328 6 5 5 4 4 Mexico BBB+ 127 135 135 136 137 86 90 91 91 89 58 62 64 65 65 Mongolia BB- 241 359 385 389 389 119 152 163 161 161 79 96 95 89 84 Montenegro BB- 456 429 440 438 425 237 217 217 211 200 82 72 71 69 67 Montserrat BBB- 181 187 179 189 190 161 162 150 156 156 7 7 6 12 11 Morocco BBB- 147 144 154 152 146 84 84 82 82 79 63 58 53 49 46 Mozambique B 297 359 400 438 468 165 159 148 139 130 93 109 103 96 90 Netherlands AA+ -42 -50 -58 -65 -70 342 331 329 321 304 42 42 42 41 38 New Zealand AA 205 208 226 234 239 370 363 372 369 366 68 71 74 74 73 Nigeria BB- -20 -21 -21 -20 -18 30 28 26 24 22 18 16 14 12 11 Norway AAA -376 -421 -435 -438 -440 355 386 379 363 347 64 67 66 64 61 Oman A -64 -73 -81 -86 -88 49 47 45 43 42 3 3 3 3 3 Pakistan B- 125 123 124 120 111 131 115 109 105 98 119 104 99 94 87 Panama BBB 86 86 86 87 86 101 100 100 101 102 38 36 37 38 40 Papua New Guinea B+ 368 444 375 208 193 314 318 259 144 144 38 43 37 25 26 Paraguay BB- -5 -10 -9 -8 -9 34 32 32 31 31 18 18 19 18 18 Peru BBB+ 83 84 82 80 76 106 111 108 106 102 54 53 47 43 39 Philippines BBB- 37 47 41 35 28 93 86 82 77 72 53 50 47 42 41 Poland A- 137 134 143 147 139 116 108 103 97 92 63 59 56 52 49 Portugal BB 247 241 226 203 184 464 437 411 372 342 170 179 175 163 153 Qatar AA -65 -105 -127 -153 -166 110 109 114 121 120 56 61 63 67 67 Romania BB+ 148 131 124 118 112 134 114 101 89 77 58 52 45 40 39 Russia BBB -7 -3 -5 -2 2 97 111 119 123 123 11 13 14 16 16 Rwanda B 67 84 100 108 115 99 105 110 111 111 72 80 83 79 80 Saudi Arabia AA- -182 -203 -217 -219 -226 14 13 13 11 10 0 0 0 0 0 Senegal B+ 51 62 71 80 86 103 108 116 124 129 80 78 76 75 68 Serbia BB- 174 154 151 151 146 161 144 143 143 142 80 79 81 81 79 Singapore AAA -93 -94 -98 -100 -98 181 188 183 175 179 0 0 0 0 0 Slovakia A 65 63 59 55 50 60 64 62 60 56 29 27 27 25 23 Slovenia A- 59 46 36 27 19 127 116 113 109 105 39 27 25 22 20 South Africa BBB 26 34 51 65 79 95 103 110 108 109 60 63 67 65 66 External Balance Sheet
  • 42. 42Data as of 24th March 2014 © Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, 2014 e--Estimate. f--Forecast. LT FC--Long-term foreign currency. N/A--Not applicable. Table 4 Sovereign Risk Indicators: External Balance Sheet Net ext. liabilities/CARs (%) Gross ext. debt/CARs (%) Gross public-sector ext. debt/CARs (%) LT FC rating 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f Spain BBB- 244 225 210 197 178 441 405 374 349 319 86 81 78 76 73 Sri Lanka B+ 118 127 133 134 133 170 174 173 167 158 134 132 130 124 118 Suriname BB- -9 -17 -32 -45 -61 27 36 33 30 29 25 33 31 28 27 Sweden AAA 15 9 4 0 -4 281 301 291 285 277 34 37 36 35 32 Switzerland AAA -216 -219 -217 -220 -223 304 285 263 250 239 16 15 13 13 13 Taiwan AA- -215 -225 -225 -231 -237 55 64 65 67 68 1 1 1 1 1 Thailand BBB+ 35 39 27 22 19 44 41 39 35 33 9 8 8 8 7 Trinidad and Tobago A -42 -51 -58 -65 -73 36 34 32 30 27 16 15 14 13 12 Turkey BB+ 198 181 208 225 223 176 194 199 205 196 54 59 71 71 73 Uganda B 149 176 199 216 218 86 91 97 100 98 61 63 71 76 76 Ukraine CCC 59 79 89 93 90 125 143 150 145 130 32 36 40 38 37 United Kingdom AAA 23 20 14 9 6 1279 1255 1200 1127 1060 66 68 66 61 57 United States of America AA+ 147 146 159 167 174 601 572 606 627 641 201 205 199 192 184 Uruguay BBB- 44 36 23 32 47 153 155 159 161 166 109 106 112 115 121 Venezuela B- -129 -117 -114 -105 N/A 102 100 97 99 N/A 98 97 94 96 N/A Vietnam BB- 70 66 63 61 59 44 43 40 38 36 31 30 29 28 26 Zambia B+ 16 13 11 9 5 66 63 69 65 59 46 44 51 47 41 External Balance Sheet
  • 43. 43Data as of 24th March 2014 © Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, 2014 e--Estimate. f--Forecast. LT FC--Long-term foreign currency. N/A--Not applicable. Table 4 Sovereign Risk Indicators: External Balance Sheet Net ext. debt/CARs (%) Narrow net ext. borrowing/CARs (%) Net investment payments/CARs (%) LT FC rating 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f Albania B 3 4 1 -1 -4 7 8 6 4 1 2 -0.1 1.3 1.8 2 Angola BB- -33 -41 -49 -50 -48 -26 -24 -28 -29 -27 14.4 4.5 4.1 4.2 6.2 Argentina CCC+ -67 -69 -77 -82 -96 54 62 72 78 75 11.2 10.4 10 10.1 10.1 Aruba BBB+ 4 16 21 23 25 9 23 28 30 31 2.8 4 3.9 4.4 5 Australia AAA 205 206 226 223 219 235 236 259 255 250 11.4 9.8 13.7 13.5 14.5 Austria AA+ 31 32 28 24 19 110 112 109 108 101 0 0 0 0 0 Azerbaijan BBB- -97 -106 -104 -101 -98 -95 -104 -101 -99 -96 10.7 11.7 11.4 11.4 11.3 Bahamas, The BBB 31 37 38 37 37 31 37 38 37 37 6.7 6.1 5.8 5.6 5.6 Bahrain BBB -111 -134 -149 -161 -172 -106 -130 -145 -157 -169 14.8 13.4 13.6 13.8 14 Bangladesh BB- 7 -13 -3 -2 -1 30 18 19 17 12 3.8 5.2 0.9 0.8 0.7 Barbados BB- 27 34 49 48 49 27 34 49 48 49 12.8 6.8 6.9 6.3 6.2 Belarus B- 34 33 40 44 46 47 48 58 63 66 2.7 3.9 3.3 4 4.2 Belgium AA -32 -26 -26 -25 -23 60 67 69 74 77 -0.9 -0.3 0.2 -0.4 0.1 Belize B- 65 67 67 70 75 65 67 67 70 75 10.5 9 10.7 10.6 10.8 Bermuda AA- -648 -578 -697 -714 -737 -94 -96 -123 -135 -156 -42.6 -52.9 -44 -43.9 -43.9 Bolivia BB- -109 -107 -110 -112 -113 -79 -80 -87 -91 -95 12.2 14.4 13.1 12.1 11.2 Bosnia and Herzegovina B 48 46 57 61 62 61 57 70 74 74 -1.9 -3.2 -2.7 -2.4 -1.5 Botswana A- -60 -55 -57 -58 -58 -50 -47 -49 -50 -49 0.9 1.5 2.3 2.9 3.3 Brazil BBB 5 4 15 22 28 9 13 23 30 36 11.9 13.4 13.7 13.6 12.9 Bulgaria BBB -15 -20 -24 -25 -24 -9 -10 -14 -16 -18 4.9 3.9 3.9 3.1 2.6 Burkina Faso B 35 39 41 44 44 41 48 53 56 56 0.1 0.2 -1.5 1.1 1.8 Cambodia B -7 -12 -16 -19 -21 -5 -1 1 2 4 8.1 10.6 11.5 12.3 13 Cameroon B -12 -10 -8 -10 -10 3 5 10 14 15 5.5 7.2 7.5 7.3 6.5 Canada AAA 89 90 82 70 58 97 98 92 87 84 3.6 4 3.8 3.8 3.9 Cape Verde B 104 100 98 90 83 113 107 105 97 90 5.4 7.1 8.8 10.9 10.6 Chile AA- -4 -4 -4 -4 -4 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 12.4 12.4 11.7 11 10.4 China AA- -155 -168 -156 -152 -150 -126 -135 -119 -113 -107 1.7 2.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 Colombia BBB -8 -14 -18 -22 -26 33 25 17 10 4 22 22.2 21.8 21.5 21.1 Congo B+ -32 -50 -62 -73 -79 -25 -37 -44 -52 -56 30.9 30.2 25.9 28.9 28.5 Congo, DR B- 15 22 31 40 49 45 56 69 83 97 10.4 15.7 17.8 18.8 19.6 Cook Islands B+ 1 19 18 18 18 1 19 18 18 18 0 0 0 0 0 Costa Rica BB -11 -8 -8 -10 -11 22 20 18 15 12 4.7 4.3 6 3.8 4.2 Croatia BB 91 78 83 80 75 99 89 95 94 87 7.3 6.1 6 6.5 6.2 Curacao A- -64 -53 -52 -51 -53 -64 -53 -52 -51 -53 1.4 -2.2 -2.5 -2.4 -2.3 External Balance Sheet
  • 44. 44Data as of 24th March 2014 © Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, 2014 e--Estimate. f--Forecast. LT FC--Long-term foreign currency. N/A--Not applicable. Table 4 Sovereign Risk Indicators: External Balance Sheet Net ext. debt/CARs (%) Narrow net ext. borrowing/CARs (%) Net investment payments/CARs (%) LT FC rating 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f Cyprus B- 55 54 35 8 -17 130 237 270 245 215 4.2 4.4 3.7 5.1 4.6 Czech Republic AA- -12 -19 -13 -11 -11 4 -2 3 3 3 8 9.4 9.2 8.7 8.1 Denmark AAA 18 17 8 4 0 85 85 80 81 82 -4.1 -2.1 -1.9 -1.6 -1.8 Dominican Rep. B+ 44 43 44 45 46 79 74 73 73 72 11.8 12 12 11.4 10.8 Ecuador B 34 34 38 46 54 41 40 44 52 59 4.5 4.5 4.2 4.1 4 Egypt B- -19 -5 0 3 6 1 13 17 18 18 10.1 8.6 8.6 8.2 8.6 El Salvador BB- 47 59 59 58 56 72 83 81 79 76 8.5 6.7 6.3 6 5.7 Estonia AA- 2 -5 -4 -3 -2 43 39 42 44 45 5.4 3.8 5.7 6.6 6.6 Fiji B -12 -7 -9 -10 -9 -1 0 1 -1 -1 5.4 4.6 4.8 4.7 4.8 Finland AAA 58 62 65 70 72 181 187 192 194 190 0.3 0.6 1 0.1 -0.3 France AA 84 79 76 76 77 252 236 228 221 217 -3.9 -4.7 -4.8 -4.3 -4 Gabon BB- -18 -27 -32 -29 -21 16 3 -4 -4 1 20.6 22.3 25.2 28.4 30.4 Georgia BB- 70 65 51 43 39 80 75 61 53 50 1.7 3.4 2.9 2.6 2.4 Germany AAA -43 -47 -51 -54 -55 69 68 65 66 63 -4 -4.1 -3.5 -3.1 -3.2 Ghana B 28 39 45 45 41 37 47 52 51 46 11.1 10.2 9.5 8.8 8.5 Greece B- 393 349 324 292 263 513 453 432 405 376 2.7 4.6 7.6 11.3 14.1 Grenada SD 311 309 295 294 294 311 309 295 294 294 16.1 14.9 16 16 16 Guatemala BB 4 5 6 7 8 30 30 30 30 29 7.4 8.3 8.5 8.7 8.5 Honduras B -4 10 7 3 4 9 26 23 20 21 10.4 11.9 12.9 12.8 12.7 Hong Kong AAA -105 -97 -88 -81 -74 -63 -59 -50 -52 -49 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 Hungary BB 44 36 33 31 28 56 46 41 38 35 6.4 6.3 6.4 6.2 5.8 Iceland BBB- 74 53 41 34 27 84 73 60 56 53 7.7 0.8 4.7 4.7 5 India BBB- 4 1 -2 -4 -5 6 2 -1 -3 -4 4 4.1 3.6 3.1 2.8 Indonesia BB+ 54 61 66 57 50 57 70 72 62 54 11.7 12.6 11.7 10 7.7 Ireland BBB+ -265 -270 -278 -286 -291 297 260 232 208 184 13 13.5 16 16.7 16.4 Israel A+ -84 -96 -98 -96 -91 -28 -35 -38 -40 -40 7.3 4.8 4.4 4.5 4.5 Italy BBB 123 129 133 136 137 224 254 262 260 253 1.4 3 3.2 3.2 2.6 Jamaica B- 128 136 135 127 116 128 136 135 127 116 6.2 6.6 6.8 7.1 7.3 Japan AA- -248 -275 -272 -262 -251 -27 -40 -41 -37 -32 -15.3 -15.8 -16.5 -17.1 -17.3 Jordan BB- 7 9 9 8 4 8 10 10 9 5 1.6 0 0 0 0.4 Kazakhstan BBB+ -60 -60 -69 -70 -70 -33 -44 -50 -49 -47 29.2 28.5 34.3 35.6 32.1 Kenya B+ 13 25 32 40 46 46 50 53 58 60 1.2 1 5.9 7.8 9.7 Korea A+ -19 -25 -28 -31 -35 -8 -12 -14 -18 -22 -0.8 -0.7 -0.1 -0.6 -0.8 Kuwait AA -324 -370 -396 -429 -451 -265 -295 -315 -341 -355 -6.6 -6.8 -7.7 -8.7 -9.5 Latvia BBB+ 39 36 41 40 39 79 78 78 74 67 2.5 2.1 4.5 3.5 2.8 External Balance Sheet
  • 45. 45Data as of 24th March 2014 © Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, 2014 e--Estimate. f--Forecast. LT FC--Long-term foreign currency. N/A--Not applicable. Table 4 Sovereign Risk Indicators: External Balance Sheet Net ext. debt/CARs (%) Narrow net ext. borrowing/CARs (%) Net investment payments/CARs (%) LT FC rating 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f Lebanon B- -113 -91 -97 -90 -81 -91 -67 -74 -69 -59 -1 0 0.8 0.8 0.7 Lithuania BBB 29 22 18 16 14 40 32 28 26 24 4.5 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.6 Luxembourg AAA -471 -465 -477 -482 -489 602 587 584 574 570 5.8 5.9 5.7 5.4 5.3 Macedonia BB- 8 11 15 20 23 24 31 35 40 42 2.6 2.8 3.7 3.5 3 Malaysia A- -20 -19 -20 -21 -21 -5 -3 -2 -1 0 4.1 4 3.4 3.4 3.4 Malta BBB+ -126 -117 -110 -95 -88 -98 -84 -80 -65 -57 4.1 4.2 3.8 4.7 4.6 Mexico BBB+ 23 26 26 28 28 42 44 44 44 44 5.4 6.4 6.5 6.2 6.1 Mongolia BB- 33 92 95 81 62 40 103 113 108 98 16.1 12.1 26.9 27.3 28.7 Montenegro BB- 186 165 161 151 139 186 165 161 151 139 -3 -3.4 -0.7 -1.9 -3.3 Montserrat BBB- -170 -173 -159 -155 -160 -170 -173 -159 -155 -160 9.7 10 9.2 9 8.8 Morocco BBB- 28 29 42 43 39 33 33 46 46 42 5.7 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.3 Mozambique B 56 49 44 40 37 77 66 58 52 53 0.8 6.8 5.7 6.7 7.5 Netherlands AA+ 29 26 24 20 16 174 172 172 169 161 -2.9 -2.4 -2.3 -2.1 -1.9 New Zealand AA 202 204 218 222 223 261 256 267 265 263 15.6 13 15.9 16.6 16.9 Nigeria BB- -83 -83 -84 -85 -82 -34 -36 -37 -40 -37 18.3 13 13.8 14.5 14.3 Norway AAA -205 -236 -241 -241 -240 -6 -42 -56 -70 -83 -4.2 -3.4 -4.2 -4.4 -4.6 Oman A -83 -92 -101 -107 -110 -57 -64 -68 -71 -70 8 8.8 6.3 6.6 7 Pakistan B- 84 82 81 74 63 91 87 87 78 66 6.7 7.3 6 6.3 6.3 Panama BBB -10 -11 -11 -12 -15 77 77 78 80 79 8.7 8.6 8.7 9 9.3 Papua New Guinea B+ 243 260 194 92 85 243 262 196 93 86 36.1 22 12.5 15.8 16.3 Paraguay BB- -33 -36 -37 -38 -40 -7 -14 -15 -17 -20 10.3 8.7 8.5 8.3 7.8 Peru BBB+ -52 -59 -63 -66 -69 -16 -16 -16 -17 -17 23.1 22.8 21.3 19.4 18.8 Philippines BBB- -26 -22 -26 -30 -33 -13 -13 -13 -15 -16 0.8 4.8 3 1.9 0.5 Poland A- 55 53 48 45 42 64 61 56 52 49 9.1 8.3 8.3 9 9.5 Portugal BB 196 191 175 152 132 338 332 303 272 247 8.7 7.1 7 7.5 8.4 Qatar AA -39 -77 -93 -113 -122 -33 -63 -78 -97 -104 8 8 7 7 6 Romania BB+ 47 38 28 21 14 71 57 46 37 29 5 6.5 3.5 3.4 3.2 Russia BBB -49 -35 -37 -34 -27 -20 -6 -6 -1 4 10.3 11.3 11.4 11.8 11.9 Rwanda B 24 33 43 46 47 28 38 47 50 51 4 3.8 4.5 5.1 5.6 Saudi Arabia AA- -197 -222 -238 -243 -252 -182 -205 -220 -224 -232 -2.6 -2.9 -3.3 -4 -4.1 Senegal B+ 14 22 28 33 37 51 61 69 76 80 3.3 2.2 1.8 2 2.2 Serbia BB- 59 54 51 48 44 81 73 71 66 62 5.1 6 6 5.8 5.5 Singapore AAA -94 -101 -105 -107 -105 -80 -86 -91 -95 -91 1.1 1.1 2 2 2 Slovak Republic A 11 10 8 7 5 26 33 29 28 26 2.3 2.4 2.8 3.2 2.4 Slovenia A- 44 33 23 14 6 84 70 60 51 41 1.9 1.4 2 2.6 2.9 External Balance Sheet
  • 46. 46Data as of 24th March 2014 © Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, 2014 e--Estimate. f--Forecast. LT FC--Long-term foreign currency. N/A--Not applicable. Table 4 Sovereign Risk Indicators: External Balance Sheet Net ext. debt/CARs (%) Narrow net ext. borrowing/CARs (%) Net investment payments/CARs (%) LT FC rating 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f South Africa BBB 10 15 22 28 34 23 36 43 46 49 7.4 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.8 Spain BBB- 222 199 176 158 139 295 269 243 221 198 4.7 3.9 4.8 4.7 5 Sri Lanka B+ 123 125 125 121 114 127 130 129 125 117 6.3 5.7 6.6 7.2 7.7 Suriname BB- -28 -40 -58 -75 -92 -28 -40 -58 -75 -92 5.5 6 6.3 6.5 6.9 Sweden AAA 74 79 78 79 78 117 129 127 125 121 -4.2 -4.9 -4.5 -4.4 -4.3 Switzerland AAA -193 -192 -189 -189 -189 47 43 37 31 25 -2.8 -3.1 -2.7 -2.4 -2.6 Taiwan AA- -186 -195 -187 -186 -185 -100 -93 -85 -82 -79 -4 -3.6 -2.4 -2.4 -2.5 Thailand BBB+ -41 -33 -41 -38 -37 -24 -18 -29 -28 -27 5.5 4.2 3.7 3.1 2.9 Trinidad and Tobago A -102 -110 -115 -118 -124 -89 -94 -97 -98 -101 23.8 20.6 18.8 17.8 17 Turkey BB+ 90 105 123 132 129 107 121 142 152 147 3.4 4.4 7.3 8 8 Uganda B 25 35 45 53 53 30 38 46 55 54 9.4 13.8 15.3 14 13 Ukraine CCC -8 2 8 11 13 88 110 125 121 108 2.9 3.1 2.8 2.3 1.8 United Kingdom AAA 34 24 18 15 14 403 397 361 314 275 0.3 3.5 1.7 0.4 -0.7 United States of America AA+ 240 241 271 284 294 340 342 383 410 430 -7.2 -7.2 -6.7 -6.1 -5.1 Uruguay BBB- -82 -95 -111 -105 -94 -13 -30 -50 -47 -38 10.6 8.5 8 7.6 7.3 Venezuela B- -158 -145 -142 -133 N/A 53 65 67 75 N/A 9.9 9.8 9.8 9.7 N/A Vietnam BB- 13 7 2 -1 -3 13 7 2 -1 -3 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.7 Zambia B+ -91 -96 -114 -116 -112 19 25 33 34 32 3.2 6.5 5.3 4.8 4.3 External Balance Sheet
  • 47. 47Data as of 24th March 2014 © Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, 2014 e--Estimate. f--Forecast. LT FC--Long-term foreign currency. N/A--Not applicable. Table 4 Sovereign Risk Indicators: External Balance Sheet Net interest payments/CARs (%) LT FC rating 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f Albania B 4.1 2.6 3.8 4.6 5 Angola BB- 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.5 Argentina CCC+ 3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 Aruba BBB+ 0.8 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.8 Australia AAA 6.8 5.8 11.3 11.1 10.9 Austria AA+ 2 2 2 2 2 Azerbaijan BBB- -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 Bahamas, The BBB 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 Bahrain BBB -2.2 -2.2 -2 -1.9 -1.8 Bangladesh BB- 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.7 Barbados BB- 2.1 2.5 3.5 3.4 0 Belarus B- 1.3 1.6 1.8 1.9 2 Belgium AA -1.1 -0.9 -1.2 -0.5 0.2 Belize B- 3.5 2.1 3.1 3.1 3.4 Bermuda AA- -7.9 -23.8 6.8 7.4 8 Bolivia BB- -0.1 0.5 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 Bosnia and Herzegovina B -3.7 -4.1 -3.6 -3.3 -2.4 Botswana A- -1.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 Brazil BBB 3 3.7 3.2 3.3 3.3 Bulgaria BBB 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.3 Burkina Faso B 0 0 -1.6 0.2 0.2 Cambodia B 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 Cameroon B 0 0 0 0 0 Canada AAA 4 4.1 4 3.8 3.3 Cape Verde B 2.9 2.5 4 3.8 3.6 Chile AA- 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 China AA- 2.3 -2.3 -2.5 -2.5 -2.6 Colombia BBB 4.2 4 3.8 3.5 3.3 Congo B+ 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 Congo, DR B- 0 0 0 0 0 Cook Islands B+ 0 0 0 0 0 Costa Rica BB 2.3 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 Croatia BB 6 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.4 Curacao A- 0 0 0 0 0 External Balance Sheet
  • 48. 48Data as of 24th March 2014 © Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, 2014 e--Estimate. f--Forecast. LT FC--Long-term foreign currency. N/A--Not applicable. Table 4 Sovereign Risk Indicators: External Balance Sheet Net interest payments/CARs (%) LT FC rating 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f Cyprus B- -0.7 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 Czech Republic AA- 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 Denmark AAA 1.8 2.1 2.5 2.6 2.4 Dominican Rep. B+ 1.8 2 2 2.1 2.2 Ecuador B 4.8 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.4 Egypt B- 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 El Salvador BB- 8.3 6.5 5.5 5.2 5 Estonia AA- -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.6 -0.6 Fiji B 0 0 0 0 0 Finland AAA 1.8 2.1 3.1 3 2.6 France AA -1.2 -1 -1.2 -1 -0.9 Gabon BB- 1.8 2.4 2.4 2.7 2.6 Georgia BB- 2.5 2.8 2.5 2.4 2.2 Germany AAA -1.9 -1.9 -1.2 -0.8 -0.9 Ghana B 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 Greece B- 6.5 4.6 6.9 9.9 12.2 Grenada SD 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 Guatemala BB 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 Honduras B 0.3 0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 Hong Kong AAA -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 Hungary BB 2.7 2.1 2.4 2.2 2.1 Iceland BBB- 4.4 4.6 4.5 4.8 4.5 India BBB- 2.5 2.8 2.4 2 1.8 Indonesia BB+ 2.8 3.5 3.4 2.9 2.3 Ireland BBB+ -2 -1.9 -1.3 -0.9 -0.6 Israel A+ 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 Italy BBB 3.8 4.3 5.8 5.8 5.2 Jamaica B- 6.7 7.5 7.8 7.5 7.1 Japan AA- -7.6 -7.7 -7.6 -7.9 -7.9 Jordan BB- 3.6 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.8 Kazakhstan BBB+ 3.6 2.6 2.1 2 2.1 Kenya B+ 0.4 0.9 1.3 1.1 0.9 Korea A+ -0.8 -0.7 -0.1 -0.6 -0.8 Kuwait AA -5.6 -6.4 -7 -7.7 -8.1 Latvia BBB+ 1.2 0.7 2.9 1.5 1.1 External Balance Sheet
  • 49. 49Data as of 24th March 2014 © Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, 2014 e--Estimate. f--Forecast. LT FC--Long-term foreign currency. N/A--Not applicable. Table 4 Sovereign Risk Indicators: External Balance Sheet Net interest payments/CARs (%) LT FC rating 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f Lebanon B- 1.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.8 Lithuania BBB 2.2 2.2 1.4 1.4 1.5 Luxembourg AAA 0 0 0 0 0 Macedonia BB- 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 Malaysia A- 0 0 0 0 0 Malta BBB+ 0 0 0 0 0 Mexico BBB+ -5.5 -5.9 -5.9 -5.8 -5.8 Mongolia BB- 0.9 0.9 1.4 1.4 1.3 Montenegro BB- 6.3 6.2 5.6 5.4 4.9 Montserrat BBB- 0 0 0 0 0 Morocco BBB- N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Mozambique B 1.3 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.7 Netherlands AA+ 0.9 1.7 2 2.5 3 New Zealand AA 0 0 0 0 0 Nigeria BB- -1.2 -1.2 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 Norway AAA -1.1 -1.7 -1.9 -1.9 -2 Oman A -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 Pakistan B- 3.7 1.8 1.6 1.8 1.6 Panama BBB -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 Papua New Guinea B+ 0.6 2.5 5.1 4.4 4.4 Paraguay BB- -0.7 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 Peru BBB+ -0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 Philippines BBB- 1.5 1.5 1.7 1 0.4 Poland A- 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.4 2.3 Portugal BB 5.6 6.4 6.2 7 7.8 Qatar AA 8 8 7 6 6 Romania BB+ 3.7 3.2 2.9 2.6 2.3 Russia BBB 0.9 1.3 2.1 2.2 2.2 Rwanda B -0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 Saudi Arabia AA- -4.6 -5 -5.6 -5.8 -6 Senegal B+ 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.9 2 Serbia BB- 4.7 6 6 5.8 5.5 Singapore AAA 0 0 0 0 0 Slovak Republic A 3.3 3.3 3.5 4 3.7 Slovenia A- 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.5 1.3 External Balance Sheet
  • 50. 50Data as of 24th March 2014 © Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, 2014 e--Estimate. f--Forecast. LT FC--Long-term foreign currency. N/A--Not applicable. Table 4 Sovereign Risk Indicators: External Balance Sheet Net interest payments/CARs (%) LT FC rating 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f South Africa BBB 1.9 1.8 2 2 2.1 Spain BBB- 8.1 7.1 7.8 7.8 7.3 Sri Lanka B+ 0.9 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.4 Suriname BB- -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 Sweden AAA 1.1 0.9 1.6 1.7 2 Switzerland AAA -3.3 -2.9 -2.4 -1.9 -2 Taiwan AA- -4.6 -3.9 -3.6 -3.6 -3.6 Thailand BBB+ 5.6 4.7 4.4 3.8 3.6 Trinidad and Tobago A 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 Turkey BB+ 1.1 2.1 3.8 4.1 3.8 Uganda B 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 Ukraine CCC 5.1 5.8 6.3 6.1 5.5 United Kingdom AAA 0.3 3.4 1.7 0.4 -0.8 United States of America AA+ 4.9 4.4 4.5 4.8 5.6 Uruguay BBB- 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.4 Venezuela B- 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.6 N/A Vietnam BB- 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 Zambia B+ 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 External Balance Sheet
  • 51. 51Data as of 24th March 2014 © Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, 2014 e--Estimate. f--Forecast. LT FC--Long-term foreign currency. N/A--Not applicable. Glossary Of Terms Economic data Nominal GDP (bil. US$). Total U.S. dollar market value (converted at current exchange rates) of goods and services produced by resident factors of production. GDP per capita (US$). Total U.S. dollar market value (converted at current exchange rates) of goods and services produced by resident factors of production, divided by population. Savings/GDP (%). Investment plus the current account surplus (deficit), as a percent of GDP. Investment/GDP (%). Expenditure on capital goods including plant, equipment, and housing, plus the change in inventories, as a percent of GDP. Real GDP (% change). Percent change in constant-price GDP. Real investment (% change). Percent change in constant-price investment. Unemployment (% of workforce). Average percent of the labor force not employed and actively searching for work (definitions and coverage vary by country). Consumer Price Index (% change). Average percent change in index of prices of a representative set of consumer goods bought by a typical household on a regular basis. Depository corporation claims on resident nongovernment sectors (% change). Claims by depository corporations, other than the central bank, on all residents except the general gov- ernment. The data do not include claims on nonresidents. Depository corporations are usually financial institutions, other than the central bank, whose liabilities are included in the national definition of broad money. General government data General government. Aggregate of the national, regional, and local government sectors, including social security, and excluding intergovernmental transactions. Net debt/GDP (%). Gross debt minus general government financial assets (cash, deposits, arms-length loans, and minority holdings of traded equities), as a percent of GDP. Debt net of government deposits/GDP (%). Gross debt minus the most liquid general government financial assets (cash and deposits), as a percent of GDP. Gross debt/GDP (%). Debt incurred by national, regional, and local governments, either for governmental purposes or for on-lending to a government-owned or private sector entity, as a percent of GDP. Internal holdings, including social security and pension fund investments in government debt, are netted out. Surplus (deficit)/GDP (%). General government operating and capital revenue, excluding proceeds from privatization, minus operating and capital and extraordinary expenditures (though generally excluding aid to the financial sector), as a percent of GDP. Primary balance/GDP (%). Surplus (deficit) plus interest payments on general government debt, as a percent of GDP. Revenue/GDP (%). General government recurrent revenue, from sources such as taxes, fees and charges, interest, and dividends, plus capital revenue (largely grants), as a percent of GDP. Expenditure/GDP (%). General government recurrent expenditure, for purposes such as salaries, goods for immediate consumption, interest, subsidies, and other transfers, plus capital spending that increases the value of general government physical assets, plus net lending (where a subsidy is involved), as a percent of GDP. Interest/GDP (%). Interest payments on general government debt, as a percent of GDP. Balance-of-payments data Current account receipts (CAR)/GDP (%). CAR, which include proceeds from exports of goods and services, factor income (compensation of employees plus investment income) earned by residents from nonresidents, and official and private transfers to residents from nonresidents, as a percent of GDP. Real exports (% change). Percent change in the volume of exports of goods and services, as defined in the national income accounts.
  • 52. 52Data as of 24th March 2014 © Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, 2014 e--Estimate. f--Forecast. LT FC--Long-term foreign currency. N/A--Not applicable. Current account balance/GDP (%). Exports of goods and services minus imports of the same plus net factor income plus official and private net transfers, as a percent of GDP. Current account balance/CAR (%). Exports of goods and services minus imports of the same plus net factor income plus official and private net transfers, as a percent of current ac- count receipts. Net external borrowing/CAR (%). The current account deficit (surplus) minus net inflows from foreign direct investment (both equity and loans) and portfolio equity investments, as a percent of CAR. A negative number indicates net external debt repayment. Usable reserves/current account payments (months). Official foreign exchange reserves (including gold at market price) minus items not readily available for foreign exchange operations and repayment of external debt (such as: (1) reserves pledged as security; (2) mark-to market losses on reserves sold forward; (3) reserves deposited with offshore branches of domestic fi- nancial institutions; and (4) the monetary base for sovereigns with a currency board or longstanding fixed peg), divided by monthly imports of goods and services, plus factor income earned by nonresidents from residents, plus transfers to nonresidents. Gross external financing needs (% of CAR plus usable reserves). Current account payments, plus scheduled principal repayments on external debt, plus the stock of short-term debt (original maturity of less than a year), as a percent of CAR plus usable foreign exchange reserves. These data are not presented for the AAA and AA categories because while the explana- tory capacity of this ratio is strong in the middle of the rating range, the ratio tends to be high for the most creditworthy sovereigns because of the importance of short-term debt, although analytically this debt usually does not present the risk that it might further down the rating scale. Net foreign direct investment (FDI)/GDP (%). Direct investment (both equity and loans)by nonresidents net of residents’ direct investment (both equity and loans)abroad, as a percent of GDP. External balance sheet Net external liabilities/CAR (%). Total external debt plus the stock of direct investment (both equity and debt) and portfolio equity investment from abroad minus total external assets, which include official reserves, other public sector foreign assets, financial institutions’ deposits with and lending to nonresidents, other private sector deposits with and lending to nonresi- dents, and the stock of direct and portfolio equity investment placed abroad, as a percent of CAR. A negative number indicates a net asset position. Gross external debt/CAR (%). Stock of borrowings in foreign or local currency from nonresidents (including nonresident deposits in resident banks) by the public and private sectors, as a percent of CAR. Excludes borrowings recorded under direct investment. Net external debt/CAR (%). Total external debt minus non-equity external assets, which include official foreign exchange reserves, other public sector foreign assets, financial institu- tions’ deposits with and lending to nonresidents, and other private sector deposits with and lending to nonresidents, as a percent of CAR. A negative number indicates net external lending. Excludes debt recorded under direct investment. Narrow net external debt/CAR (%). The stock of foreign and local currency public and private sector borrowings from nonresidents (including nonresident deposits in resident banks) minus liquid non-equity external assets, which include official foreign exchange reserves, other liquid public sector foreign assets, and financial institutions’ deposits with and lending to nonresidents, as a percent of CAR. A negative number indicates net external lending. Net investment payments/CAR (%). Factor income (largely dividends and interest, but also some employee compensation such as for embassy staffs) paid to nonresidents less factor income received from nonresidents, as a percent of CAR. A negative number indicates net investment receipts. Net interest payments/CAR (%). Interest paid to nonresidents less interest received from nonresidents, as a percent of CAR. A negative number indicates net interest receipts.
  • 53. 53Data as of 24th March 2014 © Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, 2014 e--Estimate. f--Forecast. LT FC--Long-term foreign currency. N/A--Not applicable. CONTACTS Primary Credit Analyst: Maximillian M. Mcgraw New York Tel: +1 212-438-1197 Email: maximillian.mcgraw@standardandpoors.com Secondary Contacts: Alexander Petrov London Tel: +44 20 7176 7115 Email: alexander.petrov@standardandpoors.com Julia Smith Buenos Aires Tel: +541 148 912 186 Email: julia.smith@standardandpoors.com Charlene C. Wong Singapore Tel: +65 6239 6311 Email: charlene.wong@standardandpoors.com

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