Technology Management and Strategy

1. Technology Management and Strategy [Part II]
Thanakrit Lersmethasakul
Lersmethasakul@live.com

2. A Scenario-based Approach to Strategic Planning
Integrating Planning and Process Perspective of Strategy
Torsten Wulf, Philip Meißner, Stephan Stubner
The Center for Scenario Planning, Leipzig Graduate School of Management, July 2010.
-
Aim to the conflict between the planning school and the process school of strategy has shaped the debate on strategy
creation.
This scenario-based approach to strategic planning leads to the formulation of a core strategy which is complemented
by several strategic options that are derived from different strategic scenarios.
Overall, frameworks for strategy creation which integrate the planning and the process perspectives of strategy have to
fulfill four major requirements:
Multiple options: different strategy options for the diversity of possible future developments.
Multiple perspectives: viewpoints and information from diverse stakeholders in order to challenge existing assumptions.
Systematic, tool-based process: clear process for which specific strategy tools are defined so that an easy and quick application
to practice is possible.
Flexibility: Adaptable to different environmental conditions in order to ease application.
Overview of the scenario-based
approach to strategic planning.

3. A Scenario-based Approach to Strategic Planning
Integrating Planning and Process Perspective of Strategy
Torsten Wulf, Philip Meißner, Stephan Stubner
The Center for Scenario Planning, Leipzig Graduate School of Management, July 2010.
1. Definition of Scope: Framing Checklist
2. Perception Analysis: 360° Stakeholder Feedback
(Survey instrument - available online and offline)
Three main goals drive this process step.
- To establish a comprehensive list of factors that
potentially influence the future of the company.
- To evaluate these factors according to their potential
performance impact and their degree of uncertainty.
- To benchmark perspectives of different stakeholder
groups concerning these influencing factors.

4. A Scenario-based Approach to Strategic Planning
Integrating Planning and Process Perspective of Strategy
Torsten Wulf, Philip Meißner, Stephan Stubner
The Center for Scenario Planning, Leipzig Graduate School of Management, July 2010.
3. Trend and Uncertainty Analysis: Impact/ Uncertainty Grid (for the German Photovoltaic Industry)

5. A Scenario-based Approach to Strategic Planning
Integrating Planning and Process Perspective of Strategy
Torsten Wulf, Philip Meißner, Stephan Stubner
The Center for Scenario Planning, Leipzig Graduate School of Management, July 2010.
4. Scenario Building: Scenario Matrix
Three steps to describe in more details
-Develop influence diagram for each scenario.
-Develop a storyline for each scenario on the basis of the influence diagram.
-Describe scenarios in full detail: Phoenix, Survival of the Fittest, Icarus, Go Green.
Key Uncertainty 1
Key Uncertainty 2
Simplified Influence Diagram for the German Photovoltaic Industry

6. A Scenario-based Approach to Strategic Planning
Integrating Planning and Process Perspective of Strategy
Torsten Wulf, Philip Meißner, Stephan Stubner
The Center for Scenario Planning, Leipzig Graduate School of Management, July 2010.
5. Strategy Definition: Strategy Manual
-Strategy discussion around four important elements
- Developments in the macro-environment.
- Potential behavior of competitors and customers.
- The intended positioning and competitive strategies of one’s own company.
- The respective design of the value chain and action plans.
- Determine for each scenario
- Determine those developments of elements
6. Monitoring: Scenario Cockpit
- Define important indicators for each scenario.
- Determine value ranges for these indicators.
- Constant monitoring of the defined indicators.
Scenario-Based Strategic Planning Process

7. Scenario-based Roadmapping – A Conceptual View
Fernando Lizaso and Guido Reger. University of Brandenburg, Germany.
EU-US Seminar: New Technology Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods,
Seville 13-14 May 2004
-
This paper aims at developing a new methodology that links both roadmapping and scenarios in order to
plan the co-ordinated development and deployment of new and existing technologies and applications.
Describing the process on the basis of Rapid Product Development (RPD) technologies for the
automotive industry as an example.
Six steps of science and technology roadmapping
process by technology-push-requirements-pull
approach
Roadmapping Process
1.Roadmapping Preparation
- Technology Roadmapping Architecture
(TRMA)
2. System Analysis
- RDP steps (Product Planning, Product,
Construction, Product Preparation, Product
Testing)
- Influence Matrix
- System Grids
- RPD key influence factors (Virtual or Physical
Modelling and Prototyping, Reverse
Engineering, Data Management, Change
Management, etc.
3.Scenario Projection
- Projections-Portfolios
4.Scenario Building
- Consistence-Matrix, Cluster-Analysis
5. Time Assessment

8. Scenario-based Roadmapping – A Conceptual View
Fernando Lizaso and Guido Reger. University of Brandenburg, Germany.
EU-US Seminar: New Technology Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods,
Seville 13-14 May 2004
Projection on Technology Potential

9. Scenario-based Roadmapping – A Conceptual View
Fernando Lizaso and Guido Reger. University of Brandenburg, Germany.
EU-US Seminar: New Technology Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods,
Seville 13-14 May 2004
RPD – Technology Scenarios

10. Scenario-based Roadmapping – A Conceptual View
Fernando Lizaso and Guido Reger. University of Brandenburg, Germany.
EU-US Seminar: New Technology Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods,
Seville 13-14 May 2004
Time assessment on technology
performance S-curves

11. Scenario-based Roadmapping – A Conceptual View
Fernando Lizaso and Guido Reger. University of Brandenburg, Germany.
EU-US Seminar: New Technology Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods,
Seville 13-14 May 2004
RPD Roadmap on the latest from 05 to 20 years

12. Scenario-based Roadmapping – A Conceptual View
Fernando Lizaso and Guido Reger. University of Brandenburg, Germany.
EU-US Seminar: New Technology Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods,
Seville 13-14 May 2004
Scenarios (and Paths) Selection

13. Development and Application of Web-Based Technology Roadmap
: QFD and Scenario Planning Approach
Kim, Ha Ye*, Park, Yong Tae**
* Interdisciplinary Program in Technology and Management
** Department of Industrial Engineering
College of Engineering, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea. 2004.
Objective
1.Building more systematic roadmapping process
- Qualify Function Deployment (QFD): Element selection, Customer-oriented approach
- Scenario Planning: Alternative strategic decision setting
2.Enhancing user conveniences
- Web-based roadmapping system

14. Development and Application of Web-Based Technology Roadmap
: QFD and Scenario Planning Approach
Kim, Ha Ye*, Park, Yong Tae**
* Interdisciplinary Program in Technology and Management
** Department of Industrial Engineering
College of Engineering, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea. 2004.
Phase 1. Roadmap Framing

15. Development and Application of Web-Based Technology Roadmap
: QFD and Scenario Planning Approach
Kim, Ha Ye*, Park, Yong Tae**
* Interdisciplinary Program in Technology and Management
** Department of Industrial Engineering
College of Engineering, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea. 2004.
Phase 2. Roadmap Creation

16. Development and Application of Web-Based Technology Roadmap
: QFD and Scenario Planning Approach
Kim, Ha Ye*, Park, Yong Tae**
* Interdisciplinary Program in Technology and Management
** Department of Industrial Engineering
College of Engineering, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea. 2004.
Phase 3. Strategic Reanalysis

17. Development and Application of Web-Based Technology Roadmap
: QFD and Scenario Planning Approach
Kim, Ha Ye*, Park, Yong Tae**
* Interdisciplinary Program in Technology and Management
** Department of Industrial Engineering
College of Engineering, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea. 2004.
Structure Design

18. Development and Application of Web-Based Technology Roadmap
: QFD and Scenario Planning Approach
Kim, Ha Ye*, Park, Yong Tae**
* Interdisciplinary Program in Technology and Management
** Department of Industrial Engineering
College of Engineering, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea. 2004.
Screen Design

19. Development and Application of Web-Based Technology Roadmap
: QFD and Scenario Planning Approach
Kim, Ha Ye*, Park, Yong Tae**
* Interdisciplinary Program in Technology and Management
** Department of Industrial Engineering
College of Engineering, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea. 2004.
Screen Design

20. Using scenarios for roadmapping: The case of clean production
Ozcan Saritas and Jonathan Aylen
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research, University of Manchester, UK.
Technological Forecasting & Social Change 77 (2010) P.1061–1075.
Objective: To develop a set of roadmaps for metal processing R&D to achieve breakthrough sustainability
“clean production” for the European CLEANPROD project.
Five mental acts of Foresight
The place and function of scenarios and roadmapping in the overall Foresight methodology

21. Using scenarios for roadmapping: The case of clean production
Ozcan Saritas and Jonathan Aylen
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research, University of Manchester, UK.
Technological Forecasting & Social Change 77 (2010) P.1061–1075.
Combining scenarios and roadmapping
1.Using scenarios ‘before’ the roadmapping exercise
- Scenarios are part of the preparatory activities for roadmapping.
- Help to identify what constant (presumptive anomalies) may fail in the future.
- Might indicate a radical change of approach.
2.Using scenarios ‘during’ the roadmapping exercise
- Represent alternatives routes in the form of internally consistent narratives, or
vignettes.
3.Using scenarios ‘after’ the roadmapping exercise.
- Scenarios are tools to both test the robustness of roadmaps and develop an overall
picture of the way ahead.

22. Using scenarios for roadmapping: The case of clean production
Ozcan Saritas and Jonathan Aylen
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research, University of Manchester, UK.
Technological Forecasting & Social Change 77 (2010) P.1061–1075.
“B” — or “before” scenarios are used before the actual
roadmapping exercise starts. These are mainly the
baseline scenarios which provide context for the
roadmap. They inform roadmaps about the future
developments in the Social, Technological, Economic,
Ecological and Technological developments and Values
(STEEPV).
“D” — or “during” scenarios are developed during the
roadmapping exercise. These might be in the form of
“vignettes”, which illustrate one or more components of
the roadmap in detail. There are usually more than one
“D” scenario involved in the roadmapping exercise. they
cover a fairly narrow range of technical possibilities,
perhaps a specific trajectory of development linking
technology “T” to the market “M”.
“R” is the “overall” scenario of the roadmap. It brings
together a range of D scenarios/vignettes in an
internally consistent way and provides an overview of
the overall roadmap. R scenario constitutes the body of
the roadmap.

23. Using scenarios for roadmapping: The case of clean production
Ozcan Saritas and Jonathan Aylen
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research, University of Manchester, UK.
Technological Forecasting & Social Change 77 (2010) P.1061–1075.
Setting the context with “before” scenarios
“Before” scenarios
set the context
for roadmaps.

24. Using scenarios for roadmapping: The case of clean production
Ozcan Saritas and Jonathan Aylen
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research, University of Manchester, UK.
Technological Forecasting & Social Change 77 (2010) P.1061–1075.
CLEANPROD
roadmaps.

25. Using scenarios for roadmapping: The case of clean production
Ozcan Saritas and Jonathan Aylen
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research, University of Manchester, UK.
Technological Forecasting & Social Change 77 (2010) P.1061–1075.
CLEANPROD
roadmaps
(continued).

26. Using scenarios for roadmapping: The case of clean production
Ozcan Saritas and Jonathan Aylen
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research, University of Manchester, UK.
Technological Forecasting & Social Change 77 (2010) P.1061–1075.
Testing robustness with “after” scenarios
In order to test robustness of he roadmap, two individual scenarios were
picked out, based on the extent to which socioeconomic attitudes and governance
become either more individual or more collective.
Global Economy — Business as Usual is the most individualised, ungoverned
scenario: here global competition is cost-driven, with R&D helping to sustain leadingedge products. But the uptake of nanotechnology disappoints and progress on
sustainability and the environment is incremental.
Sustainable Times — Integrated Breakthrough scenario assumes both a high
degree of acceptance by individuals of the need for sustainability and sophisticated
public pricing mechanisms to cope with “externalities”.
It is clear that some of the incremental improvements selected for technical
development under the “Business as Usual” scenario are not worth funding under the
“Sustainable Times” outlook.

27. Using scenarios for roadmapping: The case of clean production
Ozcan Saritas and Jonathan Aylen
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research, University of Manchester, UK.
Technological Forecasting & Social Change 77 (2010) P.1061–1075.
“Overall” scenarios and policy proposals

28. From Future Scenarios to Roadmapping:
A practical guide to explore innovation and strategy
Lykke Margot Ricard and Kristian Borch, Technical University of Denmark.
The 4th International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA).
12-13 May 2011
“While Participatory scenario-making provides visions for multiple futures - a
roadmap only operate with one vision. Our contribution with this paper is to bridge the
flexibility of multiple visions of scenarios with the action-oriented roadmap.”
Case of the FTA exercise
-A group of lead engineers, technology managers or a division involved in exploring
innovation and future developments (20-30 persons) from a company – public or private.
-The group has some insight in the present strategies and challenges of the company.
-The STEEPV model for trends and drivers up to 2025 is used to facilitate the construction of
four future scenarios.
-The four scenarios are constructed based on two identified uncertainties and a number of
market drivers.
Question: Which set of multiple futures might be likely and how can the company
prepare for all of them?

29. From Future Scenarios to Roadmapping:
A practical guide to explore innovation and strategy
Lykke Margot Ricard and Kristian Borch, Technical University of Denmark.
The 4th International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA).
12-13 May 2011
-
The vision is explained as a picture of the company’s position in each scenario.
Synthesize the four visions into one common vision which the following participatory technology
roadmapping exercise could build upon.
A common vision is established in plenum. In plenum the group is presented to a framework of the
strategic landscape.
Design of the roadmap and structure
Four scenarios, four visions