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Information cascades
 

Information cascades

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Models of influence propagation in social networks

Models of influence propagation in social networks

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    Information cascades Information cascades Presentation Transcript

    • Social Networks Information Cascades and Viral MarketingSaturday, September 8, 12
    • Which restaurant to choose? conformitySaturday, September 8, 12
    • Information cascade making the same decision that the others have made, independently of the own private information signalsSaturday, September 8, 12
    • Information cascade Sequential decision making Incomplete information The choice of previous participants is known (but no the reasons!) Limited selection space Rational decision making A posteriori probability (Bayes’ theorem)Saturday, September 8, 12
    • Information spread Medium: network structure Model: distribution mechanismSaturday, September 8, 12
    • Universal structure of social networks Power low degree distribution Gigantic connected component Small world phenomenon Large clustering coefficient Hierarchical structureSaturday, September 8, 12
    • Diffusion model method - diffusion virus model “infected” on contact probability depends on immunity  can model news gossipsSaturday, September 8, 12
    • Diffusion model Step 1Saturday, September 8, 12
    • Diffusion model Step 2Saturday, September 8, 12
    • Diffusion model Step 3Saturday, September 8, 12
    • Diffusion model Step 4Saturday, September 8, 12
    • Diffusion model Step 5 Complete coverage Process time depends on the source Based on connectivity patternSaturday, September 8, 12
    • Threshold model neighbors “opinion” decision threshold information cascade can model beliefs propagation A,B - types of behavior purchasing decisions q –decision threshold spread of innovations If fraction of neighbors with A greater than q, accpet ASaturday, September 8, 12
    • Threshold model threshold= 1/2Saturday, September 8, 12
    • Threshold model Step 1 2 sources threshold= 2/5Saturday, September 8, 12
    • Threshold model Step 2Saturday, September 8, 12
    • Threshold model Step 3Saturday, September 8, 12
    • Threshold model Step 4 incomplete cascade depends on network topology strongly depends on source selectionSaturday, September 8, 12
    • Complete cascades Strategic source placement Well connected Inside various communities Increase of competitive advantage reduce threshold levelSaturday, September 8, 12
    • “The Dynamics of Viral Product recommendation network Marketing” J. Leskovec et al, 2007 (DVDs)Saturday, September 8, 12
    • #newsjp Twitter retweet #ocra mention “Truthy” Project. Center for Complex Networks and System Research. Indiana University. #iraqSaturday, September 8, 12
    • Saturday, September 8, 12