Social Networks              Information Cascades and              Viral MarketingSaturday, September 8, 12
Which                            restaurant to                              choose?                              conformit...
Information cascade                        making the same decision that the others have                        made, inde...
Information cascade                Sequential decision making                Incomplete information                The cho...
Information spread                  Medium:                          network structure                  Model:            ...
Universal structure of           social networks             Power low degree distribution             Gigantic connected ...
Diffusion model                method - diffusion                virus model                “infected” on contact          ...
Diffusion model           Step 1Saturday, September 8, 12
Diffusion model           Step 2Saturday, September 8, 12
Diffusion model           Step 3Saturday, September 8, 12
Diffusion model           Step 4Saturday, September 8, 12
Diffusion model           Step 5                             Complete coverage                             Process time de...
Threshold model                neighbors “opinion”                decision threshold                information cascade   ...
Threshold model                threshold= 1/2Saturday, September 8, 12
Threshold model           Step 1                             2 sources                             threshold= 2/5Saturday,...
Threshold model           Step 2Saturday, September 8, 12
Threshold model           Step 3Saturday, September 8, 12
Threshold model           Step 4                             incomplete cascade                             depends on net...
Complete cascades                     Strategic source placement                     Well connected                     In...
“The Dynamics of Viral                                     Product recommendation network                 Marketing”      ...
#newsjp              Twitter                      retweet                                          #ocra                  ...
Saturday, September 8, 12
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Information cascades

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Models of influence propagation in social networks

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Information cascades

  1. 1. Social Networks Information Cascades and Viral MarketingSaturday, September 8, 12
  2. 2. Which restaurant to choose? conformitySaturday, September 8, 12
  3. 3. Information cascade making the same decision that the others have made, independently of the own private information signalsSaturday, September 8, 12
  4. 4. Information cascade Sequential decision making Incomplete information The choice of previous participants is known (but no the reasons!) Limited selection space Rational decision making A posteriori probability (Bayes’ theorem)Saturday, September 8, 12
  5. 5. Information spread Medium: network structure Model: distribution mechanismSaturday, September 8, 12
  6. 6. Universal structure of social networks Power low degree distribution Gigantic connected component Small world phenomenon Large clustering coefficient Hierarchical structureSaturday, September 8, 12
  7. 7. Diffusion model method - diffusion virus model “infected” on contact probability depends on immunity  can model news gossipsSaturday, September 8, 12
  8. 8. Diffusion model Step 1Saturday, September 8, 12
  9. 9. Diffusion model Step 2Saturday, September 8, 12
  10. 10. Diffusion model Step 3Saturday, September 8, 12
  11. 11. Diffusion model Step 4Saturday, September 8, 12
  12. 12. Diffusion model Step 5 Complete coverage Process time depends on the source Based on connectivity patternSaturday, September 8, 12
  13. 13. Threshold model neighbors “opinion” decision threshold information cascade can model beliefs propagation A,B - types of behavior purchasing decisions q –decision threshold spread of innovations If fraction of neighbors with A greater than q, accpet ASaturday, September 8, 12
  14. 14. Threshold model threshold= 1/2Saturday, September 8, 12
  15. 15. Threshold model Step 1 2 sources threshold= 2/5Saturday, September 8, 12
  16. 16. Threshold model Step 2Saturday, September 8, 12
  17. 17. Threshold model Step 3Saturday, September 8, 12
  18. 18. Threshold model Step 4 incomplete cascade depends on network topology strongly depends on source selectionSaturday, September 8, 12
  19. 19. Complete cascades Strategic source placement Well connected Inside various communities Increase of competitive advantage reduce threshold levelSaturday, September 8, 12
  20. 20. “The Dynamics of Viral Product recommendation network Marketing” J. Leskovec et al, 2007 (DVDs)Saturday, September 8, 12
  21. 21. #newsjp Twitter retweet #ocra mention “Truthy” Project. Center for Complex Networks and System Research. Indiana University. #iraqSaturday, September 8, 12
  22. 22. Saturday, September 8, 12
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