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CIS - Commonwealth of Independent States

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  • 1. The Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) Natalia Turkina04/04/2012 Dmytro Pustovalov
  • 2. Agenda1. Introduction of the integration2. Stages of the Integration within the CIS3. Commercial connections within and outside CIS4. FDI in and outflows5. Labor market6. External relations of the integration7. Effects of the crisis8. Future and conclusion 2
  • 3. 3
  • 4. Key indicators of the CIS 2010 2010 GDP, mln GDP in % of 2010 GDP perCIS Rank World Rank Country Population Int.$ CIS capita, Int.$ CIS 276,821,900 3,120,255 100.00% Russia 1 6 142,905,200 2,229,000 71.42% 16,840 Ukraine 2 38 45,962,900 306,300 9.80% 6,658 Kazakhstan 3 52 16,196,800 193,800 6.20% 12,050 Belarus 4 58 9,480,200 128,400 4.10% 14,178 Azerbaijan 5 71 9,077,000 90,150 2.90% 9,869 Uzbekistan 6 73 28,233,200 86,070 2.80% 3,090 Turkmenistan 7 98 5,105,000 36,640 1.20% 7,832 Armenia 8 129 3,299,000 17,270 0.55% 5,354 Tajikistan 9 134 7,616,000 14,610 0.47% 2,147 Kyrgyzstan 10 138 5,382,800 11,850 0.38% 2,257 Moldova 11 142 3,563,800 10,600 0.34% 3,087 4Source: World Bank Database
  • 5. CIS and the World, 2010 Territory India Population 2% Brazil China 7% China 7% EU-27 23% 3% Rest of the world CIS 40% Rest of the 16% India world 17% 58% EU-27 USA Gross Domestic Product USA 8% CIS Brazil 7% 5% 3% 4% China India 14% 6% Rest of the world Brazil 30% 3% EU-27 USA 22% 21%Source: CIS Statcometee Database CIS 5 4%
  • 6. Stages of integration within the CISThe CIS Customs Union in 1996 (Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan) Eurasian Economic Community (EAEC or EurAsEC) with the aim of creating a full-fledged common market: Belarus, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan Common economic space and freedom of movement among the members of EurAsEC Forming a broader EU-type economic alliance of former Soviet states (Eurasian Union by 2015) CISFTA signed on 18 October 2011 among 8 CIS member states: Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Mol dova and Armenia. 6
  • 7. Commercial connectionswithin and outside the CIS: IMPORT SHARE OF THE CIS AND OTHER COUNTRIES OF THE WORLD IN TOTAL IMPORTS OF THE CIS CIS others 73% 67% 54% 46% 33% 27% 2000 2005 2010 Source: CIS Statcometee Database 7
  • 8. Commercial connectionswithin and outside the CIS: EXPORT SHARE OF THE CIS AND OTHER COUNTRIES OF THE WORLD IN TOTAL EXPORTS OF the CIS CIS others 81% 83% 81% 19% 17% 19% 2000 2005 2010 Source: CIS Statcometee Database 8
  • 9. Export specialization Indices of the CIS (RCA Indices, 2000, World Bank) Arm. Azer. Belaru. Kazak. Kyrgyz. Mold. Ru. Tajik. Turkm. Ukr. Uzbek. CIS (2.0) Food and live animals CIS (1.7) CIS (1.1) non CIS (4) CIS (1.1) CIS (1.1) CIS(12.6) CIS (19.3) non CIS non CIS CIS (32.3) Beverages and tobacco non CIS (1.1) CIS (4.1) (1.1) (3.1) non CIS (6.4) CIS (3.2) CIS (1.1) CIS (1.6) CIS(7.8) Crude CIS (3.5) non CIS non CIS non CIS CIS (1.4) non CIS non CIS CIS(3.1) non CISmaterials, inedible, except fuel non CIS (4.6) (1.3) (1.7) CIS (5.4) (4.9) non CIS (5.1) (1.4) (7.3) non CIS (6.9) non CIS (4.6) (12.9) CIS(4.2) CIS(4.2) CIS(2.7)Mineral fuels, lubricants and non CIS non CIS non CIS non CIS CIS(8.7) related materials CIS (1.3) (9.4) (3.5) (5.7) CIS (2.6) (5.7) CIS (2.2) non CIS (6.7)Animal and vegetable oils, fats CIS (2.7) and waxes CIS (1.3) non CIS (4.2) non CIS (5.1) non CISChemicals and related products (2.4) CIS (1.5) CIS(3.4)Manufactured goods classified non CIS non CIS chiefly by material non CIS (3.9) (1.1) (4.6) Machinery and transport equipment CIS (1.3)Miscellaneous manufactured CIS (2.6) articles non CIS (3.6) non CIS (3.5) CIS (902.6) CIS (1.3) CIS (44.8)Commodities and transactions CIS (11.8) non CIS non CIS non CIS non CIS not else classified non CIS (2.6) CIS (34.3) (22.9) (2.9) (2.5) non CIS (1.1) non CIS (1.1) 9 (12.4) Source: Trade Performance and Regional Integration of the CIS Countries, World Bank
  • 10. Export specialization of the CIScountries Export by product, 2010 Export by destination in 2010 500 1% 3% 2% Europe 450 400 6% CIS 350 12% Asia 300 57% bln $ 250 19% North America 200 150 Middle East 100 Agriculture products 50 Fuels, mining products 0 Manufactured goods 2005 2009 2010 10 Source: International Trade Statistics 2011, WTO
  • 11. Import to the CIS countries Import to the CIS countries from the other countries of the World, 2010Mostly imported products:• Machinery and transport Germany equipment 13% 1% Spain• Medical supplies Italy• Miscellaneous manufactured 5% 37% China articles Holland UK 19% USA Turkey 5% 6% Finland 4% 2% France 2% 3% 3%Source: CIS Statcometee Database 11
  • 12. Inbound FDI per capita, USD 12
  • 13. FDI flow to the CIS countries Source: UNCTAD 13
  • 14. Who and where?• The main investors: China, India, Turkey, South Korea, the EU.• The main sectors for investment: fuels, mining products, transportation and telecommunication, retail and real estate.• The main recipients of the CIS’ investments: North America and the EU.• The main sectors of the CIS’ outward FDI: primary sector (petroleum), secondary sector (metal and metal products) and services (finance). 14
  • 15. Labor market in CIS countries Geographical proximity, “transparent” borders Historical ties and demographic complementarity (visa-free movements and freedom of labor movement among members of EurAsEC) Common transport infrastructure Psychological easiness to move (language, former common territory) 15
  • 16. Countries with the largest number ofinternational migrants, 2010 (millions) 16
  • 17. Migrant workers abroad estimates(thousands) in CIS 17
  • 18. Relations of member states Partners or competitions? 18
  • 19. Many-sided cooperation of CIScountries 19
  • 20. Effects of the crisis on the integrationSource: IMF “WorldEconomic Outlook” 20Sept. 2011
  • 21. Effects of the crisis on the integrationSource: IMF “WorldEconomic Outlook” 21Sept. 2011
  • 22. Potential of CIS 16% 20% 40% 25% 25% 13% 11% 10% 22
  • 23. Conclusions 1. Close integration  “Soft divorce” from the USSR family 23
  • 24. Conclusions 2. No supranational power of the CIS  forming of sovereign states + integration into the world economy 24
  • 25. Conclusions 3. Regulation of the possible military conflicts (the case of Armenia and Azerbaijan still exists) 25
  • 26. Conclusions 4. Different opinion of the members on the future way of cooperation 26
  • 27. References• CIS Statcometee Database// http://www.cisstat.com• International Trade Statistics 2011 - http://www.wto.org• Post-Soviet integration: CST, CSTO, CRRF etc. by Sergei Markedonov - http://www.opendemocracy.net , 20.01.2010• RIA Novosti - www.rian.ru• Trade Performance and Regional Integration of the CIS Countries - World Bank Working paper №38, 2004• The Commonwealth of Independent States: Is there anything to be explained by Neo-Functionalists? by Rufat R. Babayev - http://www.caei.com.ar/• World Investment Report 2007: Transnational Corporations, Extractive Industries and Development. — New York and Geneva: United Nations, UNCTAD, 2007 27