1.3 Experimental Design


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1.3 Experimental Design

  1. 1. Section 1.3 Experimental Design Part 1: Experimental Design & Data Collection Larson/Farber 4th ed.
  2. 2. Experimental Design <ul><li>The goal of every statistical study is to collect data and then use the data to make a decision. </li></ul><ul><li>When interpreting the results of a statistical study, first determine whether or not the results are valid </li></ul>
  3. 3. Designing a Statistical Study <ul><li>Identify the variable(s) or interest (the focus) and the population of the study. </li></ul><ul><li>Develop a detailed plan for collecting data. If you use a sample, make sure the sample is representative of the population. </li></ul><ul><li>Collect the data. </li></ul><ul><li>Describe the data using descriptive statistic techniques. </li></ul><ul><li>Interpret the data and make decisions about the population using inferential statistics. </li></ul><ul><li>Identify any possible errors. </li></ul>
  4. 4. Data Collection <ul><li>There are several ways to collect data. </li></ul><ul><li>The focus of the study dictates the best way to collect data. </li></ul>
  5. 5. Data Collection <ul><li>Take a census </li></ul><ul><ul><li>A census is a count or measure of an entire population. Taking a census provides complete information, but it is often costly and difficult to perform. </li></ul></ul>
  6. 6. Data Collection <ul><li>Use sampling </li></ul><ul><ul><li>A sample is a count or measure of part of a population. The statistics calculated from a sample are used to predict various population parameters. Using sampling is often more practical than taking a census. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Every year the U.S. Census Bureau samples the U.S. population to update the most recent census data. </li></ul></ul>
  7. 7. Data Collection <ul><li>Use a simulation </li></ul><ul><ul><li>A simulation is the use of mathematical or physical model to reproduce the conditions of a situation or process. Collecting data often involves using computers. Simulations allow you to study situations that are impractical or even dangerous to create in real life and often save time and money. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Automobile manufacturers use simulations with dummies to study the effects of crashes on humans. </li></ul></ul>
  8. 8. Data Collection <ul><li>Perform an experiment </li></ul><ul><ul><li>In an experiment , a treatment is applied to part of a population and responses are observed and a second group called a control group that receives no treatment or is given a placebo. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>An experiment was performed in which diabetics took cinnamon extract daily while a control group took none. After 40 days, the diabetics who had the cinnamon reduced their risk of heart disease while the control group experienced no change. (Source: Diabetes Care) </li></ul></ul>
  9. 9. Data Collection <ul><li>Survey </li></ul><ul><ul><li>A survey is an investigation of one or more characteristics of a population. Often completed by asking people questions by interview, phone, or mail. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>A disadvantage is that the wording of questions can lead to biased results. </li></ul></ul></ul>
  10. 10. Example: Methods of Data Collection <ul><li>Consider the following statistical studies. Which method of data collection would you use to collect data for each study? </li></ul><ul><li>A study of the effect of changing flight patterns on the number of airplane accidents. </li></ul>Solution: Simulation (It is impractical to create this situation) Larson/Farber 4th ed.
  11. 11. Example: Methods of Data Collection <ul><li>A study of the effect of eating oatmeal on lowering blood pressure. </li></ul>Solution: Experiment (Measure the effect of a treatment – eating oatmeal) Larson/Farber 4th ed.
  12. 12. Example: Methods of Data Collection <ul><li>A study of how fourth grade students solve a puzzle. </li></ul>Solution: Observational study (observe and measure certain characteristics of part of a population) Larson/Farber 4th ed.
  13. 13. Example: Methods of Data Collection <ul><li>A study of U.S. residents’ approval rating of the U.S. president. </li></ul>Solution: Survey (Ask “Do you approve of the way the president is handling his job?”) Larson/Farber 4th ed.
  14. 14. Section 1.3 Experimental Design Part 2: Sampling Techniques Larson/Farber 4th ed.
  15. 15. Sampling Techniques <ul><li>To collect unbiased data that ensures valid inferences about a population, it is important that: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>the sample be representative of the population </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>appropriate sampling techniques are used </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>A biased sample is one that is not representative of the population from which it is drawn, </li></ul></ul>
  16. 16. Random Samples <ul><li>A random sample is one in which every member of the population has an equal chance of being selected. </li></ul><ul><li>A simple random sample is a sample in which every possible sample of the same size has the same chance of being selected. </li></ul>
  17. 17. Simple Random Sample <ul><li>Random numbers can be generated by a random number table, a software program or a calculator. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Assign a number to each member of the population. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Members of the population that correspond to selected numbers become members of the sample. </li></ul></ul>
  18. 18. Example 1: Simple Random Sample <ul><li>There are 731 students currently enrolled in statistics at your school. You wish to form a sample of eight students to answer some survey questions. Select the students who will belong to the simple random sample. </li></ul><ul><li>Assign numbers 1 to 731 to each student taking statistics. </li></ul><ul><li>On the table of random numbers, choose a starting place at random (suppose you start in the third row, second column.) </li></ul>Larson/Farber 4th ed.
  19. 19. Solution: Simple Random Sample <ul><li>Read the digits in groups of three </li></ul><ul><li>Ignore numbers greater than 731 </li></ul>The students assigned numbers 719, 662, 650, 4, 53, 589, 403, and 129 would make up the sample. Larson/Farber 4th ed.
  20. 20. Example 2: Simple Random Sample <ul><li>A company employs 79 people. Choose a simple random sample of five to survey. </li></ul><ul><li>On the table, randomly choose a starting place. </li></ul><ul><li>Read the digits in groups of two. </li></ul><ul><li>Write the five random numbers. </li></ul>Larson/Farber 4th ed.
  21. 21. Choosing Members of a Sample <ul><li>When you choose members of a sample, decide if it is acceptable to have the same member chosen more than once. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>If it is acceptable, then the sampling process is said to be with replacement. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>If it is not acceptable, then the sampling process is said to be without replacement. </li></ul></ul>
  22. 22. Other Sampling Techniques <ul><li>Stratified Sample </li></ul><ul><li>Use this method when: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>it is important for the sample to have members from each segment of a population </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Steps: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Divide a population into groups (strata) that share a similar characteristic (age, gender, ethnicity, political party) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Select a random sample from each group </li></ul></ul>Larson/Farber 4th ed.
  23. 23. Other Sampling Techniques <ul><li>Stratified Sample </li></ul><ul><li>Example: To collect a stratified sample of the number of people who live in West Ridge County households, you could divide the households into socioeconomic levels and then randomly select households from each level. </li></ul>
  24. 24. Other Sampling Techniques <ul><li>Cluster Sample </li></ul><ul><li>Use this method when: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The population falls into naturally occurring subgroups, each having similar characteristics </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Steps </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Divide the population into “natural” groups (clusters) (sections of a course, branches of a bank) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Select all of the members in one or more, but not all, of the clusters. </li></ul></ul>Larson/Farber 4th ed.
  25. 25. Other Sampling Techniques <ul><li>Cluster Sample </li></ul><ul><li>Example: In the West Ridge County example you could divide the households into clusters according to zip codes, then select all the households in one or more, but not all, zip codes. </li></ul>Larson/Farber 4th ed.
  26. 26. Stratified Sampling Versus Cluster Sampling <ul><li>Stratified </li></ul><ul><li>Each of the strata contains members with a certain characteristic </li></ul><ul><li>Some of the members of each group are used </li></ul><ul><li>Cluster </li></ul><ul><li>Clusters consists of geographic groupings and should consist of members with all of the characteristics (ie all age groups) </li></ul><ul><li>All of the members of one (or more) groups are used </li></ul>Larson/Farber 4th ed.
  27. 27. Other Sampling Techniques <ul><li>Systematic Sample </li></ul><ul><li>Steps: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Assign each member of the population a number </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Choose a random starting point </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Select members at regular intervals (every kth value). </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Advantage: easy to use </li></ul><ul><li>Disadvantage: if there is any regularly occurring pattern in the data, this method should be avoided </li></ul>Larson/Farber 4th ed.
  28. 28. Other Sampling Techniques <ul><li>Systematic Sample </li></ul><ul><li>Example: to collect a systematic sample of the number of people who live in Dade County households, assign a different number to each household, randomly choose a starting number, select every 100 th household, and count the number of people living in each. </li></ul>Larson/Farber 4th ed.
  29. 29. Other Sampling Techniques <ul><li>Convenience Sample </li></ul><ul><li>A convenience sample only consists of available people </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Often leads to biased studies and therefore is not recommended </li></ul></ul>Larson/Farber 4th ed.
  30. 30. Example: Identifying Sampling Techniques <ul><li>You are doing a study to determine the opinion of students at your school regarding stem cell research. </li></ul><ul><li>In each of the following, Identify the sampling technique used. </li></ul>Larson/Farber 4th ed.
  31. 31. Example: Identifying Sampling Techniques 1. You divide the student population with respect to majors and randomly select and question some students in each major. Solution: Stratified sampling (the students are divided into strata (majors) and a sample is selected from each major) Larson/Farber 4th ed.
  32. 32. Example: Identifying Sampling Techniques <ul><li>You assign each student a number and after choosing a starting number, question every 25 th student. </li></ul>Solution: Systematic sample (the sample was selected by numbering all members of the population, choosing a random starting number and selecting at regular intervals from the starting number) Larson/Farber 4th ed.
  33. 33. Example: Identifying Sampling Techniques <ul><li>3. You select a class at random and question each student in the class. </li></ul>Solution: Cluster sample (each class is a naturally occurring subgroup and you question each student in the class) Larson/Farber 4th ed.
  34. 34. Example: Identifying Sampling Techniques <ul><li>4. You select students who are in your statistics class. </li></ul>Solution: Convenience sample (the sample was selected by only using available students) Larson/Farber 4th ed.
  35. 35. Homework <ul><li>P20 #1 – 24 all </li></ul>