Voter Behaviour


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Voter Behaviour

  1. 1. The Electorate and Voter Behavior <ul><li>Why is voter turn out low in the US? </li></ul><ul><li>What factors influence voter choice? </li></ul>
  2. 2. The Electorate <ul><li>in 2004, exit polls showed that 61% of voters who said that they attended church on Sunday supported Bush </li></ul><ul><li>Kerry received the support of 39% of churchgoers </li></ul><ul><li>51% of voters were married with children supported Bush </li></ul><ul><li>Kerry received 40% </li></ul><ul><li>Dean has tried to reach out to among others,evangelical Christian </li></ul>
  3. 3. Democratic PartyElectorate <ul><li>“ The Democratic Party was built on four pillars.” </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The Roosevelt intellectuals </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The Catholic Church </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Labor unions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>After American </li></ul></ul><ul><li>“ but we had stopped communicating with the Catholics and with labor, and so all you have left was the Roosevelt intellectuals and African-Americans.” </li></ul><ul><li>-Howard Dean </li></ul>
  4. 4. US Electorate <ul><li>“ exit polls consistently show that fat 21% of American self identified as liberal and about 34% as conservatives.” </li></ul><ul><li>“ and a plurality, about 45%, felt identified as moderate. So if this means that Democrats have to pull almost two thirds of moderate voters to be the majority party.” </li></ul><ul><li>Jonathan Cowan, the president of Third Way </li></ul>
  5. 5. American Electorate <ul><li>Greater polarization in the electorate hurts Democrats, for a simple reason; one out of every three voters belongs to the base in the past car road has had to successfully mobilize. </li></ul><ul><li>Only one out of five along to Howard Dean. </li></ul><ul><li>A recent report by the political scientist Elaine Kamsrck and Bill Galston </li></ul>
  6. 6. <ul><li>“ In 1976, Jimmy Carter eke out a victory with only 51% of the moderate voters because he won nearly 3 and 10 conservative voters” </li></ul><ul><li>Galston and Kamarck </li></ul><ul><li>“ in 2004, John Kerry won 54% of the moderates and still lost by 3.5 points because he won a much smaller share of conservatives. With three conservatives for every two liberals assure arithmetic truth is that in a polarized electorate actively mobilized by both major parties, Democratic candidates much capture upward of 60% of the moderate vote –a target only Bill Clinton has reached in recent times-two win a national election” </li></ul><ul><li>Or received the support of 50.2% of self identified moderates in his popular vote victory over President Bush in 2000, the 81% of the Conservatives vote for Bush </li></ul>
  7. 7. Must Win the Moderates <ul><li>People don’t believe that Senator Clinton is a liberal </li></ul><ul><li>She spoke in favor of a law banning flag burning </li></ul><ul><li>Clinton reached out to anti-abortion voters </li></ul><ul><li>She refuses to call for troop withdrawal from Iraq </li></ul><ul><li>She has become a new friend of Rupert Murdoch the proprietor of the one-time Clinton bashing New York Post and Fox news, who has hosted fund raisers for her </li></ul><ul><li>Washington Post columnist Richard Cohen to write, “does she know what she believes? Do we know what she believes? Hillary, help us. The hell are you?” </li></ul>
  8. 8. “ <ul><li>“ part of this is just showing respect. Respect for culture, faith, values. You know, and not everyone wants to live in a big city. The assumption sometimes is “why wouldn’t you want to be in the middle of where all the action is?” I think people in rural America may talk a little slower, that they get a good sense of whether you were understanding where they’re coming from. </li></ul><ul><li>I don’t think it’s only about the fate; it’s about values and respect. It’s about being bowl at a NASCAR race as well as in a boardroom.” </li></ul>
  9. 9. New type of Democrat and <ul><li>Schweitzer became the first Democrat elected governor of Montana in 20 years; he won 50% of the vote. </li></ul><ul><li>He supports gun ownership </li></ul><ul><li>In the first 90 days, we put more money into K-12 education than anyone had ever done </li></ul><ul><li>We use money from new tobacco tax to help small businesses buy health insurance for their employees </li></ul><ul><li>We passed a law to incorporate a curriculum about the great achievements of our Indian population and tour schools </li></ul><ul><li>And we passed a law to require that 15% of our electricity will come from wind power or solar power </li></ul><ul><li>Does this sound conservative or progressive? </li></ul>
  10. 10. Influencing the electorate: the media <ul><li>A year if that “Accompaname”aired, sales of over the counter contraceptives in Mexico increased by 23% </li></ul><ul><li>The bold and beautiful a CBS soap opera . It is broadcast and 140 countries including Bangladesh and Uganda and Yemen. </li></ul><ul><li>After one particularly emotional scene of mine received 500 callsdo they center for disease control which provided 800 number or people could call for information about HIV </li></ul><ul><li>The show “hum log” (we people” which went on air in 1984 became one of the most popular traumas in Indian history. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>“ munch, dinner-it was all anyone talked about” </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>A similar parallels to a soap opera’s plot was found in a small village in India. The villagers petition the government for funds-so the gross weight and not have to babysit their siblings at the expense of intending school. The percentage of gross in the school had risen from 10 to 40. </li></ul></ul>