Given Sept 1 2011 @ Mobile 2.0 in SF

1. Who’s
In
the
Driver
Seat
in
Mobile?
Larry Berkin
Sept 1, 2011

2. Why
Mobile
2.0?

3. The
Evolu3on
of
Device
FKA
a
Mobile
Phone

4. Global
Unit
Shipments:
Surpassed
PCs
in
2011
Source:
KPCB
Katy
Huberty,
Ehud
Gelblum,
Morgan
Stanley
Research
2011

5. The
Road
To
One
Billion
Smartphones/Yr
Source:
HIS
iSuppli
August
2011
Source:
Morgan
Stanley
Research
2009

6. Smartphones:
%
of
Total
Handset
Sales
Source:
Chetan
Sharma
ConsulFng
2011

7. Cumula3ve
Units
Shipped:
By
PlaPorm
iOS:
200M
Android:
130M
Source:
Gartner

8. Devices
Sold
&
Apps
Downloaded
iOS
Android
200
Million
130
Million
15
Billion
6
Billion

9. PlaPorm
Net
User
Gains:
U.S.
Source:
asymco

10. Unique
Models
Introduced:
By
PlaPorm
Source:
Strategy
AnalyFcs
SpecTrax

11. Availability
of
Open,
0%
Royalty
OS
=
Gamechanger
-­‐
Average
cycle
3me
for
Android
Smartphone
Development:
2008
Qualcomm
QSD8250
chipset
&
Android
Donut
1.6
=
8
mo.
2011
Qualcomm
ARM
Cortex
A8/A9
chipset
&
Android
2.3
=
4.5
mo.
Android
has
removed
speed
as
a
source
of
advantage.
In
the
past,
fast-­‐to-­‐market
OEMs
could
gain
6-­‐9
mo.
of
highly
profitable
advantage.
But
now
vendor
cycle
3mes
are
virtually
iden3cal—they
can
all
deliver
handsets
based
on
the
latest
Android
release.
within
16–20
weeks.
“Quadroid”
as
the
dominant
offering
will
drive
down
gross
margins
for
handset
companies
to
drama3c
new
lows—close
to
the
8–10%
range
endured
by
major
PC
manufacturers
like
Acer
or
Lenovo.
-­‐Some
handset
companies
are
predicted
not
to
survive.

12. Opera3ng
Profit
from
Mobile
Phones
-­‐8
Vendors
Source:
asymco

13. APPLE:
Revenue
By
Product
Source:
Silicon
Alley
Insider

14. Apple
Could
Buy
(almost)
All
Compe3tors
Source:
asymco

15. Mobile
Acquisi3ons
Source:
Gridley
&
Company
LLC

16. GOOG
Buys
Motorola
Mobility-­‐
Aug
15
2011
Looks
to
“Protect
Android
From
Compe3tors”
Sanjay
&
Andy
celebrate
with
a
ripping
game
of
Ping
Pong
Larry
Page
said:
“I
need
a
new
phone,
someone
buy
me
a
Motorola!”

17. Reac3ons
from
Top
4
Android
Licensees

18. Top
Smartphone
OEMs:
U.S.
Source:
comScore
MobiLens

19. OEM
Introduc3on
of
Smartphones:
By
PlaPorm
Looks
to
“Protect
Android
From
Compe3tors”
Source:
Strategy
AnalyFcs
SpecTrax

20. Market
Reac3on:
Aug
22,
2011-­‐
7
days
later

21. Who’s
Zooming
Who?

22. Mobile
Communica3on
Related
Patents:
‘93-­‐’11
Source:
Chetan
Sharma
ConsulFng
2011

23. Patent
Li3ga3on
Outcome:
October
2010,
Steve
Ballmer
noted
that
“Android
has
a
patent
fee.
It’s
not
like
it’s
free.”
HTC
pays
Microsos
$5
for
every
Android
smartphone
it
sells.
~
Roughly
$60M/Q
Bizarre
that
HTC
is
paying
Microsos
to
use
Google’s
opera3ng
system!
Microsos
has
demanded
that
Samsung
pay
a
$15
patent
royalty
for
every
Android
handset
it
produces

24.
“The
bawle
of
devices
has
now
become
a
war
of
ecosystems,
where
ecosystems
include
not
only
the
hardware
and
sosware
of
the
device,
but
developers,
applica3ons,
ecommerce,
adver3sing,
search,
social
applica3ons,
loca3on-­‐based
services,
unified
communica3ons.”
Stephen
Elop,
CEO
Nokia
“Burning
PlaPorm
memo”

25. Who
Is
in
Best
Posi3on
to
Challenge
Apple?

26. Coming Fall 2011
Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos

27. THANKS!
@lberkin