Hugo_G_ Peri urban demographic change
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×
 

Like this? Share it with your network

Share

Hugo_G_ Peri urban demographic change

on

  • 1,055 views

Beyond the Edge: Australia's First National Peri-Urban Conference

Beyond the Edge: Australia's First National Peri-Urban Conference
La Trobe University
Oct 2013

Statistics

Views

Total Views
1,055
Views on SlideShare
602
Embed Views
453

Actions

Likes
0
Downloads
14
Comments
0

1 Embed 453

http://www.latrobe.edu.au 453

Accessibility

Categories

Upload Details

Uploaded via as Adobe PDF

Usage Rights

© All Rights Reserved

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Processing…
Post Comment
Edit your comment

Hugo_G_ Peri urban demographic change Presentation Transcript

  • 1. Peri-Urban Demographic Change by Graeme Hugo ARC Australian Professorial Fellow, Professor of Geography and Director of the Australian Population and Migration Research Centre , The University of Adelaide Presentation to Beyond the Edge: Australia’s First National Peri-Urban Conference: Explaining Ideas, Practice, Policy and Research, organised by La Trobe University and RMIT, La Trobe University, Melbourne Campus 2 October 2013
  • 2. Outline of Presentation • Introduction • Peri-Urban Areas: An International Perspective • Defining Peri-Urban Areas • Population Dynamics – Natural Increase – Internal Migration – International Migration • Population Characteristics • Key Trends and Policy Issues
  • 3. A GLOBAL PHENOMENON • Between 2013 and 2050 the world’s population will increase by around 2 billion • All of this increase will be in urban areas most in Asia, Africa, South America and the Pacific • Most of this increase will be in periurban areas
  • 4. A Period of Exceptional Population Growth in Australia • 2006-12 Australian population increased by 2.27 million compared with 1.18 million 2001-6 • Net migration gain from overseas has reached unprecedented levels (1.41 million, 2006-12) • Fastest growing OECD country • However spatial pattern of growth uneven
  • 5. Growth “Hot Spots” • Mining Areas • Coastal Areas • Outer Suburbs • Peri-Urban Areas *Characterised by lagging of infrastructure and service provision. In Australia this is based largely on past population growth rather than present and future population
  • 6. Rethinking The Rural/Urban Dichotomy • Blurring of distinction • Role of enhanced transport and communication • Extension of Functional Metropolitan Regions • Reduced tyranny of distance • Extended commuting • Global phenomenon - eg. In China
  • 7. Defining Peri-Urban Areas • No standard definition • Attempts over long period (eg Rural-Urban Fringe literature beginning in 1950’s) • In Australia - ASGC Outer Metropolitan Statistical Divisions - ASGS – new Greater Capital Statistical Areas and Significant Urban Areas
  • 8. “……centres with a population of over 10,000 and contain not only the built up urban area but likely growth over the next 15 years plus immediately associated rural areas.”
  • 9. Schematic Representation of Suggested Functional Metropolitan Region
  • 10. Key Features of Peri-Urban Areas • The dynamic expanding edge zone of major cities • Mix of urban and rural land issues • Rapid change in land use with increasingly intensive uses replacing less intensive uses • Rapid population change • Governance issues and conflicts because of different interest groups • Growth of Retirement Communities
  • 11. Key Demographic Features • Increasing dynamism and diversity • Rapid growth • Increasing diversity of population and households • Retirement migration, second homes
  • 12. APPROACH TAKEN HERE Two groups of Local Government Areas (a)National Growth Areas Alliance (NGAA) on the edge of Metropolitan Areas (b) Peri-Urban Areas Adjoining new metropolitan regions
  • 13. Box 1: The National Growth Areas Alliance (NGAA) Local Government Areas New South Wales Victoria Queensland Western Australia South Australia Blacktown, Camden, Campbelltown, Liverpool, Penrith Casey, Cardinia, Wyndham, Melton, Hume and Whittlesea Moreton Bay, Logan, Ipswich Gosnells, Wanneroo, Swan, Cockburn, Mandurah, Serpentine -Jarrahdale, Kwinana, Armadale, Rockingham Playford, Mount Barker
  • 14. Adjoining Areas, 2011 New South Wales Cessnock, Lake Macquarie, Lithgow, Newcastle, Oberon, Singleton, Upper Lachlan Shire, Wingecarribee, Wollongong Victoria Bass Coast, Baw Baw, Golden Plains, Hepburn, Macedon Ranges, Mitchell, Moorabool, Mount Alexander, Murrindindi, Queenscliff, Surf Coast Queensland Gold Coast, Lockyer Valley, Scenic Rim, Somerset, Sunshine Coast Beverley, Chittering, Gingin, Mandurah, Murray, Northam, Toodyay, Western Australia Wandering, York Tasmania Derwent Valley, Glamorgan/Spring Bay, Huon Valley, Southern Midlands South Australia Adelaide Hills - North and Balance, Alexandrina - Coastal and Strathalbyn, Barossa - Angaston, Barossa and Tanunda, Light, Mallala, Mount Barker Central and Balance, Victor Harbor, Yankalilla
  • 15. DYNAMICS OF POPULATION CHANGE The population of local areas is shaped by three demographic processes: • The excess of births over deaths (natural increase) • The excess of immigrants from overseas over emigrants who leave the area and Australia (net international migration) • The excess of in-migrants from elsewhere in Australia over out-migrants moving to other parts of Australia (net internal migration)
  • 16. Box 2: Alliance LGAs as a Percent of Australia as a Whole Source: ABS 2011 Census Total population Population growth 2006-11 Household Growth 2006-11 All migrants Recent migrants Persons aged 65+ Persons aged less than 15 Single parent families Internal migrants Persons aged 0-4 15.9 35.4 31.6 19.0 17.5 11.5 19.0 18.3 16.5 19.4
  • 17. Adjoining Areas as a Percent of Australia as a Whole, 2011 Total population Population Growth 2006-11 Household growth 2006-11 All migrants Recent migrants Persons aged 65+ years Persons aged less than 15 years Single parent families Internal migrants Persons aged 0-4 years 9.9 9.4 10.3 7.3 6.3 11.6 9.8 10.3 10.9 3.5
  • 18. AGE STRUCTURE The age composition of areas is fundamental to planning services since demand for all services is influenced by age. It is crucial to recognise that age groups do not all grow at the same rate or at the same rate as the total population. Hence demand for particular services can change rapidly even though there may be little change in the total population size.
  • 19. Alliance LGAs: Age-Sex Distribution, 2006 and 2011 Source: ABS 2006 and 2011 Censuses 2006 (shaded) and 2011 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 Age 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 150000 Males Females 100000 50000 0 Number 50000 100000 150000
  • 20. Adjoining Areas: Age Sex Distribution, 2006 and 2011 Source: ABS 2006 and 2011 Census Adjoining LGAs 2006 (shaded) and 2011 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 Age 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 80000 Males 60000 Females 40000 20000 0 Number 20000 40000 60000 80000
  • 21. Australia and Alliance LGAs: Age Sex Distribution, 2011 Australia (shaded) and Alliance LGAs Age Males 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 5 Females 4 3 2 1 0 Percent 1 2 3 4 5
  • 22. Australia and Adjoining LGAs: Age Sex Distribution, 2011
  • 23. Largest Immigrant Groups in Alliance LGAs, 2011 United Kingdom 214,061 Iraq 18,892 New Zealand 113,270 Malaysia 14,911 India 68,573 Germany 14527 Philippines 56,916 Lebanon 13763 South Africa 28,083 Netherlands 12335 Italy 27,537 Malta 12121 Fiji 24,328 Croatia 11903 Vietnam 22,666 Samoa 11239 Sri Lanka 21,862 Turkey 11163 China 21,233
  • 24. Largest Immigrant Groups in Adjoining LGAs, 2011 England New Zealand Scotland South Africa Germany Netherlands Italy China Philippines USA 108,473 75,670 14,486 12,978 12,394 9,379 8,602 8,492 8,246 7,383 India Japan Ireland FYROM Canada Korea (South) Wales Malaysia Croatia Thailand 6,945 4,774 4,601 4,534 4,410 3,893 3,760 3,654 2,958 2,923
  • 25. Visa Categories of Settler Arrivals in Alliance LGAs Number Percent of Australian Total Family 109,095 19.3 Skilled 204,486 19.1 45,536 28.7 359,117 20.0 Humanitarian Total
  • 26. Visa Categories of Settler Arrivals in Adjoining LGAs Visa Category Family Skilled Humanitarian Total Number 18434 1721 33800 53955 Percent of Australian Total 5.6 2.0 5.1 5.0
  • 27. Household Dynamics • • • • Grow at different rates to population Faster growth than population Larger average size Over-representation of families with children • Aged households in retirement areas
  • 28. Alliance LGAs: Households and Families, 2011 Growth in households 2006-11 Percent of households privately renting Percent in non-private dwellings Average size of household Percent of households with two parents and children Percent of households with single parent and children Percent own house outright Percent with mortgage Median monthly mortgage Median weekly rent Alliance 261,418 13.5 1.2 2.8 38.6 Australia 616,220 13.9 3.7 2.6 30.7 13.2 10.6 24.5 43.7 $1850 $295 31.0 33.1 $1800 $285
  • 29. Adjoining LGAs: Households and Families, 2011 Growth in households 2006-11 Percent of households privately renting Percent in non-private dwellings Average size of household Percent of households with two parents and children Percent of households with single parent and children Percent own house outright Percent with mortgage Average median monthly mortgage Average median weekly rent Adjoining Australia 247,692 616,220 12.7 13.9 3.9 3.7 2.5 2.6 29.9 30.7 11.3 10.6 32.6 31.0 33.2 33.1 $1,527 $1,800 $217 $285
  • 30. Alliance LGAs: Workforce Issues Male participation rate Female participation rate Percent unemployed Youth unemployment Median personal income per week Percent in Professional/Managerial occupations Percent of dwellings with no motor vehicle Percent travel to work by car Alliance 74.3 59.9 6.2 13.3 $598 Australia 71.2 59.2 5.6 12.2 $577 25.0 6.3 34.8 9.0 82.7 78.2
  • 31. Adjoining LGAs: Workforce Issues Male participation rate Female participation rate Percent unemployed Youth unemployment Average median personal income per week Percent in Professional /Managerial occupations Percent of dwellings with no motor vehicle Percent travel to work by car Adjoining 68.2 57.0 6.2 13.1 $516 30.6 5.5 87.0 Australia 71.2 59.2 5.6 12.2 $577 34.8 9.0 78.2
  • 32. Key Demographic Issues 1 • The LGAs are absorbing a disproportionately large share of national growth in both population and households – twice their proportionate share on average but greater in several LGAs. • They are absorbing a disproportionate share of growth in the dependent children and youth groups. • While they have a lower share of the nation’s rapidly growing aged population, it is growing faster than in the nation as a whole. • Absorb a disproportionately large share of new immigrants settling in Australia – this is especially marked for humanitarian migrants, almost 1 in 3 of whom settle in these LGAs. Since these groups have especially significant needs of support in the early years of settlement, this represents an important feature of several of the LGAs.
  • 33. Key Demographic Issues 2 • LGAs are characterised by immigrant settlement of particular groups including those from Mainly English speaking backgrounds (especially young families), Indian background, Fijian and Philippines-born. More than half of residents in these areas are a migrant or the child of a migrant. • LGAs have a disproportionately large share of persons who moved within Australia during the 2006-11 period. This is an important part of the dynamics of these areas and creates challenges for infrastructure and service provision. • There is a dominance of working families with mortgages in these areas. There is a disproportionate representation of couples and single parent families with children.
  • 34. CONCLUSION • Distinctive demography • Need for research on defining PeriUrban areas • Distinctive issues, lack infrastructure, services • Global issue