Buxton_M_Integrating regional settlement with rural land protection


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Beyond the Edge: Australia's First National Peri-Urban Conference
La Trobe University
Oct 2013

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Buxton_M_Integrating regional settlement with rural land protection

  1. 1. Integrating regional settlement with rural land protection: scenarios for peri-urban planning Michael Buxton RMIT University
  2. 2. Nature of peri-urban change • Peri-urban areas are among the fastest growing regions in many countries • In US, peri-urban land comprises up to one third of total land area; 30% of new housing in peri-urban areas, moving to one third of total US population • U.K. Europe, loss of agricultural land to housing 2.5 per cent in the decade from 1970 • China and India transforming small-medium towns and cities into mega settlements • Chinese and western capital imposing high rise and suburban development model into African countries
  3. 3. Why protect peri-urban areas? • Traditional reasons: to preserve landscapes; protect water quality and supply; protect primary production and other natural resources deposits of minerals and other resources and other rural activities. • Emerging issues: food security, health, climate change and impact of peak oil • Precaution: in times of rapid fundamental change, maintain options, act cautiously, anticipate needs • Cities and hinterlands: renewed focus for resilience – but will we recognise this need in time?
  4. 4. Loss of peri-urban values will lead to catastrophic impacts this century
  5. 5. Varying UGB has led to land speculation
  6. 6. Context • Australia’s urban primacy Source: State of Australian Cities (2012) • 2/3rd of popul. in 5 largest cities • Growth of 1.5-1.8% • Population increase from 23m in 2013 to 42-46m in 2056 • Only 15% live in in medium sized cities with population from 100,000 to 1m
  7. 7. Context SEQ 2009-31 regional plan • Lack of Regional planning in Australia • Some examples: • DURD 1972-75 • SEQ Regional Plan • Melbourne regional planning 1970s
  8. 8. Melbourne peri-urban region • Melbourne, population 4.2m; Australia 2013 population of 23m moving to 42-46m, 2056 • Melbourne’s peri-urban region – inner and outer areas: population 700,000
  9. 9. Regional planning - regulation • In 1970s, State government used planning system: limit urban growth, protect farming in Mornington Peninsula and Upper Yarra Valley • 1971 SPP3 and SPP4 • Legislation to protect natural values - ie 1976 Upper Yarra Valley and Dandenong Ranges Act • Regional authorities and strategy plans to implement SPPs and legislation
  10. 10. Potential for new industries • Viticulture: Yarra Valley area under vineyards - 1973/74: 43 ha and 17 vineyards - By 1998: 114 vineyards and 50 wineries, with 2,500 ha cultivated with an annual turnover of $100 million • Tourism and recreation - By 1998, 600,000 visitors annually • Other industries developed – ie education
  11. 11. Case study region
  12. 12. Purpose: Scenario Modelling What will happen? The continuation of current trends, conditions and policies to 2040 - business as usual - in rural areas and townships What can happen? Alternative scenarios that describe possible future states – then backcasting to achieve these through alternative policy and regulatory levers
  13. 13. Method Alternative scenarios: two spatial scales • redirect growth from rural-residential and residential development from rural areas to townships - (Rural Preservation Scenario) require minimum subdivision lot size to qualify for dwelling approval - tenement control of 25 ha - tenement control of 40 ha • Consolidate township growth within regional townships on a number of scenarios; accommodate transferred and increased demand • shift development to smaller townships
  14. 14. Method Relate land supply and demand • Compile existing rural and township land supply • Compare this to development pressure spatially • Assume that land supply influences demand and can be transferred spatially • Develop alternative rural policies to protect natural resources – landscape ecology approach
  15. 15. Extensive rural land fragmentation – 87,000 dwelling capacity (vacant lots + subdivision)
  16. 16. Development capacity “BAU–rural preservation scenario” by zone 87,000 additional dwellings (BAU); 112,000 additional dwellings (RP) Achieved through transfer and promotion of high densities in TZ, UGZ, CDZ in RP compared with BAU.
  17. 17. Use of tenement control
  18. 18. Development capacity – BAU – tenement control
  19. 19. Findings - rural Legend Developed Parcels (2010 - 2040) Urban Centre or Locality No Development Capacity Crown Land & Non Rural Residential Landscape Undeveloped Capacity
  20. 20. Findings - BAU development • BAU scenario: by 2040, costly, fragmented landscapes • Pressure greatest on regional centres and infrastructure corridors closest to the metropolitan fringe, and coast • Doing nothing not an option because of past land fragmentation • Need spatial and institutional integration; cross-sectoral policy measures
  21. 21. Findings - townships • 3 urban development scenarios • BAU (greenfield) • Infill • Fringe density • For Bendigo, regional centre of 86,000, 160km North West of Melbourne
  22. 22. General approach: Housing Futures 1. Greenfield / broadhectare areas: • Business as usual • Higher density 2. Infill in established areas: • Dual occupancy • Activity centres • Incremental infill • Redevelopment on non-residential land 3. Increased development in town core
  23. 23. Key findings: Bendigo greenfield/broadhectare BUSINESS AS USUAL Land supply: 770 hectares Overall yield at trend densities: 9,240 dwellings - Residential zones - No overlays - Parcels over 1 hectare - Trend density: 12 dwellings per hectare HIGHER DENSITY SCENARIO: 25 dwellings per hectare: 19,250 Increased dwelling supply compared to BAU: 10,010 Parent lots over 1 hectare
  24. 24. Key findings: Bendigo greenfield business as usual Development Station Edmarna Meadows, Villawood Lot sizes: 1,500 – 2,332sqm R1 Zone
  25. 25. Further project stage: development types Lot: 10 x 30m (300sqm) Height: 1 (or 2 storey) Bedrooms: 3 Parking: 1 space in garage Open space: 40-90sqm, back yard Floor area: 1 storey – 160sqm 2 storey – 215sqm Lot: 12.5 x 20m (250sqm) Height: 1 (or 2 storey) Bedrooms: 2 or 3 Parking: 1 or 2, in garage Open space: 35-50sqm, back yard Floor area: 1 storey – 100sqm 2 storey – 170sqm Net density: 21 dwellings per hectare Net density: 24 dwellings per hectare
  26. 26. Key findings: Bendigo dual occupancy Land supply: 555 hectares Overall yield with two dwellings per parcel: 6,976 (two dwellings on vacant lots, one additional on occupied lots) Average density: almost 13 dwellings per hectare Parent lot 700 to 1,000sqm
  27. 27. Key findings: Bendigo activity centres Land supply: 322 hectares Overall yield at 35 dwellings per hectare: 11,270 R1Z and MUZ parcels over 150sqm within 400m of business zones
  28. 28. Further project stages: development types Street Neigbouring one storey building Neigbouring one storey building Lane Site boundary Residential use Communal open space Private open space (courtyard) Car parking Building context Carpark access Indicative carpark location Lot: 4.5 x 30m (135sqm) Height: 2/3 storey Bedrooms: 2 Parking: 1 space in garage Open space: 35sqm, back yard Floor area: 110sqm Lot: 20.1 x 25.9m (522.36sqm) No. of units: 4 Height: 2 storey, 7m Bedrooms: 2 Parking: 2 spaces in rear garage Open space: Private courtyards, balconies Floor area: 155sqm / dwelling Net density: 39 dwellings per hectare Density: 75 dwellings per hectare
  29. 29. Further project stages: development types Lot: 27 x 14.5m (390sqm) No. of units: 12 Height: 4 storey, 14m Bedrooms: 2 Parking: 1 spaces in garage under building Open space: balconies 8-11sqm Floor area: 61 – 77sqm / dwelling Lot: 28 x 5.5m (155sqm) No. of units: 7 Height: 4 storey, 12.5m Bedrooms: 1 Parking: Only for two wheels Open space: balconies 8sqm Floor area: 55sqm / dwelling Density: Density: 387 dwellings per hectare 460 dwellings per hectare
  30. 30. Key findings: Bendigo incremental infill Land supply: 344 hectares Overall yield at 35 dwellings per hectare: 12,040 R1Z parcels rated green by CoGB
  31. 31. Key findings: Bendigo non-residential land infill Land supply: 275 hectares Overall yield at 35 dwellings per hectare: 9,625 Non-residential zones parcels rated green by CoGB
  32. 32. Key findings: Bendigo Greenfield / broadhectare SCENARIO FUTURE GREENFIELD DEVELOPMENT Maximum yield possible on all parcels over one hectare Supply 770 hectares Density 25 dwellings per hectare Dwelling supply 19,250 DUAL OCCUPANCY INFILL Two lot development on existing occupied and vacant residential parcels between 700 and 1,000sqm 555 hectares from 6,756 parcels (220 vacant) almost 13 dwellings per hectare 6,536 + 440 = 6,976 Sample of lots available Bendigo’s total dwelling supply = 62,561 Core Infill ACTIVITY CENTRE INFILL RESIDENTIAL INFILL OTHER CBD REDEVELOPMENT DEVELOPMENT Development occurs on sites within 400m radius of business zoned parcels Residential development occurs on infill sites outside CBD and zoned Business and Industrial Development on sites determined as appropriate, to heights defined by CBD Strategy 322 hectares from 4,154 parcels Development occurs on residential sites identified as appropriate for development by CoGB 344 hectares from 1,129 parcels 275 hectares from 209 parcels 14.4 hectares from 138 parcels 35 dwellings per hectare 35 dwellings per hectare 35 dwellings per hectare 11,270 12,040 9,625 Average 140 dwellings per hectare 2,000+
  33. 33. Key findings: Rural centres have capacity to take up significant proportion of Melbourne’s growth
  34. 34. Implications • Reduction of the • Land tenure is the key factor existing supply of • Rural development small rural lots capacity of existing small (backcasting) rural-residential lots will • Strong controls be exhausted by 2025 in over subdivision areas closest to and a transfer of Melbourne and along demand for future major transport corridors rural land holdings • Spatial planning techniques could prevent to regional further land settlements fragmentation
  35. 35. Policy responses • Requires selection of a desired future and use of measures designed to achieve this alternative future. • But Australian deregulated planning systems are: - enabling and increasingly non-regulatory - based on vertically and horizontally fragmented institutions and sectoral policy - based on incremental, ad hoc approvals towards no defined end • Victorian deregulated governance led to dismantling of integrated metropolitan and regional policy