Phelan_Fish_Workshop

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  • Done using UDP land supply and propensity for households to live in particular dwelling types (2001 to 2011) – three scenarios with different density assumptions for dwelling typesBasically shows that increasing density increases longevity of land supplyThen had a closer look at Bendigo at different approach in different places within the city – in context of new zones coming in and opportunity for councils to rethink how they apply those zones, particularly to accommodate projected population growth
  • Description of each scenario to give feel for what looked at - main criteria as planning zones, parcel sizes eg. only greenfield over 1ha, only parcels within 400 metres of an activity centre using BZ as proxy
  • Either calculated density result or applied density to land supply
  • Scenario which most applicable to peri-urban areas (either on edge of somewhere like Melbourne or also edges of Bendigo and Ballarat) – and for which most demand based on past propensities ie. Australians like their detached housesSee the impact of increasing required density which should then reduce need to rezone more land into the peri-urban area
  • Can then see how they compare – more density means more supplyAlso analysed Bill’s transferred demand in urban settlements in Bendigo: does put extra pressure on land supplies but again density would be one way to accommodate the extra dwellings and would likely do a combination of the Bendigo modelled scenarios to achieveLast scenario is what will be exploring in groups: how to accommodate the projected dwelling growth for Ballarat and Bendigo
  • Going to test policy positions – know what is projected to happen ie. business as usualEach group will develop ideas for a scenario where growth should goThen need to think about list of criteria that would use to direct growth ie. rules for a scenario modelWill give some information to inform those criteria:Planisphere settlement hierarchy and infrastructureMaps of region’s urban settlementsDemographic informationEnvironmental informationPlanning zonesGet x minutes, then each group needs to briefly present their perspective and their criteriaAlso have a think about how would actually implement eg. Policies, incentives, programs etc. – our urban settlement approach was simply density – what are some other options?Then finish with group discussion about the policy implications of those approaches – and applicability of using scenario modelling more generallyBut first will show how would describe our tenement control scenario, and then they can follow that structure (if they want to!)
  • Will leave this up for them to refer toAfter x minutes, come back as a group with one person report backThen can talk about the applicability of scenario modelling once have had a chance to think about how to go about it

Transcript

  • 1. Scenario modelling: A peri-urban futures initiative Kath Phelan & Bill Fish
  • 2. Peri-urban Futures The research project - Scenario modelling Rural scenarios Urban settlement scenarios Workshop - Group work on developing scenario criteria Conclusion - Discussion of groups’ scenarios Applicability of scenario modelling
  • 3. Peri-urban Futures: New Initiative 2 Year initiative – a collaboration between Spatial Vision, RMIT and La Trobe - Other researchers (University of Melbourne) - Supporting State and local government Scenario formulation to support peri-urban planning - Which planning questions? - Which research concerns? Sound spatial modelling framework - Robust - Transparent - Defensible
  • 4. Purpose – Rural Landscape Scenario Modelling Scenario modelling is about: The testing of alternative policy positions. Scenario modelling achieves this by exploring three basic questions: What will happen? What can happen? How can a specific target be reached?
  • 5. Peri-urban Futures Study Area - 7 Local Government Areas - Defined by Western and Calder corridors - 52 settlements including Ballarat & Bendigo - Covers part of two Regional growth areas, Loddon Mallee South and Central Highlands
  • 6. Suitable Conceptual Framework
  • 7. Method: Supply Rural Land Supply Based Upon: - Land Occupancy, AND - Local Planning Zone Subdivision Provisions
  • 8. Method: Demand Victoria in Future 2012 Dwelling Projections 2011-2041 -Dwelling based Rural / Urban Apportionment Rules
  • 9. Method: The Constraints Assign a “Constraint” profile to each Cadastral land parcel: - Environmental values - Intensive agriculture - Climate related impacts (flood, wildfire risk, sea level rise) - Prescribed water catchments - Groundwater management areas - Heritage values Impacted (Yes/No) and % Impacted Native Vegetation = ‘Yes’ Impacted 20% BMO = ‘Yes’ Impacted 7% WMO = ‘No’ Impacted 0%
  • 10. Method: Development Pressure ….Formerly referred to as ‘Attractiveness’ indicators INFRASTRUCTURE Distance to major roads Distance to rail commuter nodes Distance to bus nodes Access to NBN Broadband – Optic Fibre Access to NBN Broadband – Fixed Wireless SETTLEMENTS Distance from Melbourne Distance to towns (Services weighted) Distance to towns (Population weighted) Distance from towns Identified Growth Areas (UDP) DEMOGRAPHIC Population Density Historic population growth (1996-2011) Historic dwelling growth (1996-2011) SEIFA disadvantage index SEFIA advantage index ENVIRONMENT Distance from Coast Density of significant landscape Density of vegetation Distance from waterbodies and rivers
  • 11. Outcomes: Likely rural parcel take-up (2012-2041) Business as Usual Rural Preservation
  • 12. Outcomes: Profile of parcels used to satisfy demand (2041) Macedon Ranges Shire 2000 1800 Dwelling take-up (2011-2041) 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Bushfire Risk Flood Risk Catchments Business as Usual Groundwater Rural Preservation Significant Vegetation Agricultural Land
  • 13. Population re-distribution to urban settlements Business as Usual Rural Preservation: Capacity of townships to absorb transferred rural dwelling demand
  • 14. Regional Housing Futures in four towns Ballarat Bendigo
  • 15. Bendigo case study Scenario Criteria Density Business as usual greenfield Development at current trend densities 12 dwellings per hectare Higher density greenfield Maximum yield of parcels over one hectare 25 dwellings per hectare Dual occupancy infill Two lot development on existing occupied and vacant residential parcels 13 dwellings per hectare Activity centre infill 35 dwellings per hectare Development occurs on sites within 400m radius of BZs
  • 16. Bendigo case study Scenario Criteria Density Residential infill Development occurs on R1Z sites identified by CoGB 35 dwellings per hectare Other redevelopment Residential development occurs on infill sites outside CBD zoned Business and Industrial identified by CoGB 35 dwellings per hectare CBD development 140 dwellings per hectare Development on sites determined as appropriate, to heights defined by CBD Strategy
  • 17. Bendigo case study: greenfield
  • 18. Bendigo case study
  • 19. Workshop: redistributing projected growth Where should the region’s 75,661 projected new dwellings go (by 2041)? - 60,650 in urban settlements - 15,010 in rural areas
  • 20. Workshop: redistributing projected growth Where should the region’s 75,661 projected new dwellings go (by 2041)? - 60,650 in urban settlements - 15,010 in rural areas Example scenario: Tenement control Scenario description - Restrict new dwellings on jointly owned multi-lot rural properties - New dwellings should instead be built in urban settlements - Preference for growth in urban settlements along transport corridors
  • 21. Workshop: redistributing projected growth Where should the region’s 75,661 projected new dwellings go (by 2041)? - 60,650 in urban settlements - 15,010 in rural areas Scenario criteria - Urban settlements: particularly Ballarat and Bendigo, also Gisborne, Bacchus Marsh, Maryborough - Transport corridors - Growth to smaller settlements with basic infrastructure eg. Reticulated water, sewerage - Higher residential density development in eligible urban settlements
  • 22. Workshop: redistributing projected growth Where should the region’s 75,661 projected new dwellings go (by 2041)? - 60,650 in urban settlements - 15,010 in rural areas Rationale for criteria - Growth in urban settlements: protects rural landscape including agricultural land, native vegetation and animal species - Reduces rural residential vulnerability to natural hazards eg. Bushfire, flood - Transport corridors: potential to travel using methods other than car - Smaller settlements without basic infrastructure cannot support growth - Higher residential density development: protects existing streetscapes and housing stock
  • 23. Workshop: redistributing projected growth Where should the region’s 75,661 projected new dwellings go (by 2041)? - 60,650 in urban settlements - 15,010 in rural areas Policy and regulatory implications - Change to Councils’ Municipal Strategic Statements to explicitly protect rural landscapes from development and direct dwelling demand to well serviced urban settlements - Regulation: Planning zone approach • Restrict minimum lot sizes in Farm Zone • Require minimum residential densities in urban zones: eg. 20 dwellings per hectare in Residential 1 Zone in greenfield area 35 dwellings per hectare on infill sites
  • 24. Workshop: redistributing projected growth Scenario description Restrict new dwellings on jointly owned multi-lot rural properties - New dwellings in urban settlements - Preference for growth along transport corridors - Ballarat, Bendigo, Gisborne, Bacchus Marsh, Maryborough - Transport corridors - Scenario criteria - Growth to smaller settlements with basic infrastructure eg. Reticulated water, sewerage - Protect rural landscape (agricultural land, native vegetation and animal species) Reduces rural residential vulnerability to natural hazards - Potential to travel using methods other than car - No growth in smaller settlements without basic infrastructure Policy and regulatory implications - Rationale for criteria Higher residential density development in eligible urban settlements Protects existing streetscapes and housing stock - Municipal Strategic Statements - Planning zones
  • 25. Conclusion Discussion of groups’ scenarios Applicability of scenario modelling