Economic outlook and perspectives nov2012
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Economic outlook and perspectives nov2012

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Economic outlook and perspectives nov2012 Economic outlook and perspectives nov2012 Presentation Transcript

  • Economic outlook and trade perspectives in Latin America and the Caribbean. 2012Viña del Mar, Chile. 26 de noviembre de 2012Ricardo J. SánchezSenior Economic Affairs OfficerChief, Infrastructure Services UnitNatural Resources and Infrastructure Division
  • IndexRegional macroeconomiccontextInternational contextEconomic perspectives:macroeconomy and trade
  • Regional performance in 2012:  Inflation, employment and wages  External sector  Policies: Fiscal and Monetary
  • Economic activity continues to expand (3.2%), but at a lower rate than 2011 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: GDP GROWTH RATE, 2012 (In percentages) Panama 9.5 Haiti 6.0 Peru 5.9 Venezuela (Bol. Rep. of) 5.0 Nicaragua 5.0 Costa Rica 5.0 Chile 5.0 Bolivia (Plur. St. of) 5.0 Dominican Republic 4.5 Equador 4.5 Colombia 4.5 Central America (9 countries) 4.4 Mexico 4.0 Uruguay 3.5 Guatemala 3.5 Latin America 3.2 Latin America & the Caribbean 3.2 Honduras 3.2 Cuba 3.0 South America (10 countries) 2.8 El Salvador 2.0 Argentina 2.0 Brazil 1.6 The Caribbean 1.6 Paraguay -2.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), based on official figures.
  • Qué explica en menor ritmo de crecimiento? LATIN AMERICA: CONTRIBUTION TO REGIONAL GDP GROWTH BY COUNTRY7%6%5%4% Brazil3% Argentina2% The Caribbean Mexico1% Central America0% Rest of South America-1% Latin America & the Caribbean-2%-3% 2004 2005 2009 2010 2011 2012 2006 2007 2008 Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), based on official figures.
  • Consumption continues to be the main driver of GDP growthLATIN AMERICA: RATE OF GDP VARIATION AND THE CONTRIBUTION TO GROWTH OF THE COMPONENTS OF AGGREGATE DEMAND (2005 constant dollars, in percentages, weighted averages) 10 10 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 -4 -4 -6 -6 I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Public Consumption Private Consumption Investment Net Exports GDP Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), based on official figures.
  • A wide array of policies and measures (with differences between countries) has been applied between 2003/2008 and 2012 1. Fiscal policy 2. Monetary policy 3. Social and labour policies 4. Sectoral and trade policies27
  • Inflation maintained its downward trend of the first quarter of the year LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, FOOD PRICE INDEX AND CORE INFLATION, 2009-2012 (12-month change, simple average) 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% February February February February December December December August August August October October April October April March April March March April March May May May May June June June June January January January January November July November July July July November September September September 2009 2010 2011 2012 CPI Core Food Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.12
  • Current account LATIN AMERICA (19 COUNTRIES): STRUCTURE OF THE CURRENT ACCOUNT, 2006-2012 a (As a percentage of GDP) 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Goods balance Services balance Income balance Current transfers balance Current account balance Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures. a Figures for 2012 correspond to projections.19
  • Until mid-2012, at the regional level, there was a continuous increase of employment which positively affected consumption LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN (10 COUNTRIES): EMPLOYMENT RATE AND URBAN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, FOUR QUARTER MOVING AVERAGE, 2009 TO SECOND QUARTER 2012 (In percentages) 56.50 9.00 8.50 56.00 8.00 55.50 7.50 55.00 7.00 6.50 54.50 6.00 54.00 5.50 53.50 5.00 Employment rate (left scale) Unemployment rate (right scale) Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.13
  • Financial access INTERNATIONAL BOND ISSUESa (In millions of dollars, basis points) 30,000 800 700 25,000 600 20,000 500 15,000 400 300 10,000 200 5,000 100 0 0 Oct-07 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-08 Oct-11 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-07 Jul-08 Jan-10 Jul-11 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-07 Apr-10 Private-sector Banks Sovereign Quasi-sovereign EMBI+ Latin America (right scale) Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of data from Latin Finance, Bonds Database, JP Morgan and Merrill Lynch. a Emerging Markets Bonds Index20
  • Latin America: Varying fiscal spaces, but greater than those of OECD countries LATIN AMERICA AND OECD: OVERALL FISCAL BALANCE AND PUBLIC DEBT, 2011 (As a percentage of GDP) 3.0 2.0 PER PRY 1.0 CHL BOL NIC Overall fiscal balance 2011 0.0 HTI URY -1.0 Latin America ECU COL -2.0 DOM MEX ARG PAN -3.0 BRA GTM VEN SLV -4.0 CRI 0.0 -5.0 HND LA -4.0 -6.0 OECD 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 -8.0 50 Gross public debt 2011 0 20 40 60 80 100 Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.22
  • International reserves LATIN AMERICA: INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (Index numbers, averages before the crisis = 100) 350.00 300.00 12,546 377,221 13,064 250.00 59,836 165,393 38,421 200.00 4,832 35,276 6,766 150.00 45,152 4,898 4,219 25,932 100.00 50.00 0.00 Post Crisis Average (Q1 2010-Q2 2012) Aug-12 Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), based on official figures25 * The values represent international reserves in millions of USD for August 2012
  • B The variability of nominal exchange rates has increased LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: RATE OF CHANGE OF THE NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATE, DECEMBER 2011 TO AUGUST 2012 Colombia -7.5% Chile -7.2% Mexico -4.4% Peru -2.6% Costa Rica -2.5% Bolivia (Plur. St. of) -0.7% Paraguay -0.3% Trinidad & Tobago -0.3% Venezuela (Bol. Rep. of) 0.0% Panama 0.0% DEPRECIATION El Salvador 0.0% Equador APPRECIATION 0.0% Dominica 0.0% Guatemala 0.3% Honduras 0.4% Dominican Rep. 1.4% Nicaragua 2.9% Jamaica 3.1% Haiti 4.2% Argentina 6.6% Uruguay 7.0% Brazil 10.2% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 26 Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), based on official figures
  • EXPECTATIONS: Moderate recovery in some countries and a slight deceleration in others in 2013 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: GDP GROWTH RATE, 2013 (In percentages) Haiti 7.5 Panama 7.0 Peru 5.5 Paraguay 5.0 Nicaragua 5.0 Chile 4.8 Dominican Republic 4.5 Equador 4.5 Colombia 4.5 Bolivia (Plur. St. of) 4.5 Latin America & the Caribbean 4.0 Uruguay 4.0 Mexico 4.0 Costa Rica 4.0 Brazil 4.0 Guatemala 3.5 Argentina 3.5 Venezuela (Bol. Rep. of) 3.0 Honduras 3.0 Cuba 3.0 The Caribbean 2.2 El Salvador 2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.09 Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC)
  • EXPECTATIONS: for 2013 a moderate recovery of growth, mainly due to an upturn in Brazil LATIN AMERICA: CONTRIBUTION TO REGIONAL GDP GROWTH BY COUNTRY 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% Brasil Argentina El Caribe México Centroamérica Resto de América del Sur -3% América Latina y el Caribe 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), based on official figures.7
  • Conclusions • A slight deceleration in 2012 and a modest recovery in 2013 • The (varied) country outlook will depend on the external situation and on the capacity to respond28
  • IndexRegional macroeconomiccontextInternational contextEconomic perspectives:macroeconomy and trade
  • Global production and trade began to slow down starting in the second half of 2011 WORLD AND MAIN REGIONS: PRODUCTION AND EXPORTS, 2010-2012 A. Industrial output by volume B. Exports by volume (Annual growth in percentage) (Annual growth in percentage) Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of CPB Netherlands Bueau of Policy Analysis.32
  • The euro zone (except Germany) is in recession, partly as a result of deep fiscal adjustments A. Germany and euro zone excluding Germany: B. Euro zone excluding Germany: quarterly growth public debt and fiscal deficit (Percentages of GDP) (Percentages of GDP) Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of Eurostat and IMF.34
  • Performance in the euro zone has been uneven among the countries SELECTED EURO ZONE COUNTRIES: CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP RISK PREMIUMS (basic points) Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of Bloomberg.35
  • Recovery in the United States UNITED STATES: CUMULATIVE GROWTH IN THE FOUR YEARS AFTER THE CRISIS (Index: crisis year=1) Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of World Bank, World Development Indicators.37
  • The complex fiscal situation in the United States is constraining growth UNITED STATES: QUARTERLY CHANGE IN GDP, 1990-2013 (Quarterly rates of variation in percentages) 2. Spending cuts and tax hikes postponed - Deficit narrows to 6.5% of GDP. - Unemployment around 8%. - Economy grows 1.7% in 2013. Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis and estimates by the Congressional Budget Office (2012).40
  • The crisis has shifted the US’ export patterns: Asia andLatin America have become the main destination markets UNITED STATES: STRUCTURE OF EXPORTS BY DESTINATION, 2001 AND 2011 (Percentages of the total) Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of the United States Department of Commerce.41
  • The main challenge for China is to shift its source of growth from investment to consumption A. Gross fixed capital formation as B. Private consumption as a percentage of GDP a percentage of GDP (Percentages) (Percentages) Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of World Bank, World Development Indicators.43
  • Compared with previous recoveries, patterns are markedly different in the North and the South RECOVERIES AFTER THE CRISIS OF 2009 COMPARED WITH 1982 AND 1991 A. Constant GDP in 2005 dollars and purchasing power parity (Index: crisis year=100) (a) Advanced economies (b) Developing economies B. Goods and services export volumes (Index: crisis year=100) Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of Eurostat and International Monetary Fund.42
  • IndexRegional macroeconomiccontextInternational contextEconomic perspectives:macroeconomy and trade
  • In the next 5 years, Asia will provide almost half of global growth; LAC will contribute more than Western Europe CONTRIBUTION TO GLOBAL GROWTH BY REGION, 2012-2017 (Percentages) Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of IMF, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2012.44
  • Global export growth begins to slow. Global exports are going to grow more slowly in the post-crisis (?) period than they did pre- crisis WORLD TRADE IN GOODS AND SERVICES (Annual rates of variation and average pre- and post-crisis) Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of World Trade Organization. a The figure for 2013 corresponds to estimates by IMF, World Economic Outlook, June 2012 update.33
  • For 2012, ECLAC projects export volumes growth of 5.1% and import growth of 3.7% LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN AND SUBREGIONS: PROJECTED VARIATION IN GOODS TRADE VALUE BY PRICE AND VOLUME, 2012 (Percentages)Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official information for January-July 2012 forArgentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico, and January-June 2012 for the other countries in the region.For 2013: 6.2% export volumes growth of 5% imports
  • In conclusion
  • Ricardo J. Sánchez Thank You! Chief Infrastructure Services Unit Natural Resources and Infrastructure Division United Nations ECLAC +56 2 210-2131 Ricardo.Sanchez@ECLAC.org http://www.eclac.org/transporteClient Logo