Latino voters in Arizona and SB1070

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Survey of Latino registered voters in Arizona on the topic of immigration and SB 1070

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Latino voters in Arizona and SB1070

  1. 1. Political Implications of Immigration in 2010: Latino Voters in Arizona Commissioned by May 14, 2010
  2. 2. <ul><li>Matt A. Barreto, Ph.D. </li></ul><ul><li>[email_address] </li></ul><ul><li>909-489-2955 </li></ul><ul><li>Gary M. Segura, Ph.D. </li></ul><ul><li>[email_address] </li></ul><ul><li>206-280-5069 </li></ul>Arizona Latino Attitudes © Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 Contact
  3. 3. <ul><li>Statewide survey of Latino registered voters in state of Arizona </li></ul><ul><li>Primary aim was to understand Latino views towards Arizona immigration law, 1070 </li></ul><ul><li>Also included questions national immigration reform and political parties </li></ul><ul><li>n=402, margin of error +/- 4.9 </li></ul><ul><li>Field dates, April 30 – May 5, 2010 </li></ul><ul><li>Partnered with Latino politics faculty at Arizona State University (Dr. Rudy Espino), and Northern Arizona University (Dr. Stephen Nuño) for local expertise </li></ul>Arizona Latino Attitudes © Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 Survey Overview
  4. 4. <ul><li>We examine 4 topic areas: </li></ul><ul><li>1. Reaction to Arizona law </li></ul><ul><li>2. National immigration policy </li></ul><ul><li>3. Partisan implications </li></ul><ul><li>4. Impact on 2010 turnout </li></ul>Arizona Latino Attitudes Survey Overview
  5. 5. <ul><li>1. Reaction to the Arizona Law </li></ul>Arizona Latino Attitudes
  6. 6. Arizona Latino Attitudes © Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Latino views on 1070 Contact: 909.489.2955
  7. 7. Arizona Latino Attitudes © Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Latinos in comparison Contact: 909.489.2955
  8. 8. Arizona Latino Attitudes © Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Views by generation status Contact: 909.489.2955
  9. 9. Arizona Latino Attitudes © Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Views by party identification Contact: 909.489.2955
  10. 10. Arizona Latino Attitudes © Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Support for Arizona Boycott Contact: 909.489.2955
  11. 11. Arizona Latino Attitudes © Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Fears about racial profiling Contact: 909.489.2955
  12. 12. Arizona Latino Attitudes © Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Profiling views by generation Contact: 909.489.2955
  13. 13. Arizona Latino Attitudes © Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Fears about racial profiling Contact: 909.489.2955
  14. 14. Arizona Latino Attitudes © Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Fears about racial profiling Contact: 909.489.2955
  15. 15. Arizona Latino Attitudes © Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Hurting relations with police Contact: 909.489.2955
  16. 16. Arizona Latino Attitudes © Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Driving Latinos away? Contact: 909.489.2955
  17. 17. <ul><li>Latino opposition to the new law is overwhelming: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>98% were knowledgeable of the law, SB 1070 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Transcends generation and transcends party </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Latino voters see the law as personally threatening: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>US citizens and legal immigrants will be targeted; </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Racial profiling will be the mechanism of enforcement; </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>If immigrants were white, there would be no law. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Majority support for the boycott, though modest. </li></ul>Arizona Latino Attitudes Summary of Reaction to SB1070
  18. 18. <ul><li>2. National Immigration Policy </li></ul>Arizona Latino Attitudes
  19. 19. <ul><li>What do you think are the most important issues that President Obama and the Congress should address over the next year? </li></ul><ul><li>Immigration 59% </li></ul><ul><li>Fix the economy 22% </li></ul><ul><li>Health Care 17% </li></ul><ul><li>Create more jobs 13% </li></ul><ul><li>Education 5% </li></ul><ul><li>War on terror 4% </li></ul><ul><li>Banking reform 2% </li></ul>Arizona Latino Attitudes © Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Most Important Issue Respondents could select 2 issues Contact: 909.489.2955
  20. 20. Arizona Latino Attitudes © Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Support for Policy Reform Contact: 909.489.2955
  21. 21. Arizona Latino Attitudes © Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Support for Policy Reform * Combines path to citizenship and immediate legalization categories Contact: 909.489.2955
  22. 22. Arizona Latino Attitudes © Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Support for Policy Reform Contact: 909.489.2955
  23. 23. Arizona Latino Attitudes © Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Support for Policy Reform % who said “very important” Contact: 909.489.2955
  24. 24. <ul><li>The Arizona law has radically increased the salience of immigration as an issue; </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Immigration is now the #1 issue to Latino voters </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Latino voters overwhelmingly prefer a policy option that includes a path to legalization; </li></ul><ul><li>There is growing impatience with the administration: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Almost four in five voters think there needs to be a bill passed by the November election. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Support for a national bill is highest we have ever recorded </li></ul></ul>Arizona Latino Attitudes Summary on National Policy
  25. 25. <ul><li>3. Partisan Implications and </li></ul><ul><li>Consequences </li></ul>Arizona Latino Attitudes
  26. 26. Arizona Latino Attitudes © Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Political Implications Contact: 909.489.2955
  27. 27. Arizona Latino Attitudes © Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Political Implications Contact: 909.489.2955
  28. 28. Arizona Latino Attitudes © Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Political Implications With leaners recoded as partisans Which party do you do you feel closer to? Contact: 909.489.2955
  29. 29. Arizona Latino Attitudes © Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Political Implications Contact: 909.489.2955
  30. 30. Arizona Latino Attitudes © Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Political Implications Contact: 909.489.2955
  31. 31. Arizona Latino Attitudes © Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Political Implications % who approve Contact: 909.489.2955
  32. 32. Arizona Latino Attitudes © Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Political Implications % who strongly approve Contact: 909.489.2955
  33. 33. Arizona Latino Attitudes © Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Partisan Fallout Contact: 909.489.2955
  34. 34. Arizona Latino Attitudes © Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Partisan Fallout Contact: 909.489.2955
  35. 35. Arizona Latino Attitudes © Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Partisan implications Contact: 909.489.2955
  36. 36. Arizona Latino Attitudes © Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Partisan implications Contact: 909.489.2955
  37. 37. Arizona Latino Attitudes © Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Partisan implications Contact: 909.489.2955
  38. 38. Arizona Latino Attitudes © Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Partisan implications +4 ignoring -10 working 14 point swing in 3 weeks time Contact: 909.489.2955
  39. 39. Arizona Latino Attitudes © Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Partisan implications +4 ignoring -7 working +3 blocking Contact: 909.489.2955
  40. 40. Arizona Latino Attitudes © Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Partisan implications - 8 approval +2 approval 10 point swing in 3 weeks time Contact: 909.489.2955
  41. 41. Arizona Latino Attitudes © Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Partisan implications -14 understandable +12 understandable Contact: 909.489.2955
  42. 42. Arizona Latino Attitudes © Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Partisan implications -69 excited - 42 excited Contact: 909.489.2955
  43. 43. Arizona Latino Attitudes © Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Partisan implications -14 excited - 2 excited Contact: 909.489.2955
  44. 44. Arizona Latino Attitudes © Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Partisan implications Among Democrats only Contact: 909.489.2955
  45. 45. <ul><li>A majority of Latino voters blame Republicans for the passage of the new law: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>But a third of Latino voters blame both parties; </li></ul></ul><ul><li>A growing number of respondents believe Democrats are ignoring the issue; </li></ul><ul><li>Both parties are paying costs for the issue: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>GOP costs more severe, but enthusiasm for Democrats is severely constrained by perceived inaction. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>There is not a knee-jerk swell of support for Democrats, Latinos are proceeding very cautiously with respect to Democratic support </li></ul></ul>Arizona Latino Attitudes Summary of Partisan Effects
  46. 46. <ul><li>Generic two-party vote is Democratic, but soft: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The undecided signals a weak vote share in November; </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Support for Governor Brewer among Latino voters is a scant 12%; </li></ul><ul><li>Obama approval overall appears stable (73%) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>However - the strength of support is weakening; </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>And, a significant decline in approval for his handling of immigration </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Majority now believe that inaction on immigration before Nov is going back on a campaign promise </li></ul><ul><li>Only 42% of self-identified Democrats are “excited” about what the Democratic party is doing today </li></ul>Arizona Latino Attitudes Summary of Partisan Effects
  47. 47. <ul><li>4. Impact on Voting in 2010 </li></ul>Arizona Latino Attitudes
  48. 48. Arizona Latino Attitudes © Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Impact on voting in 2010 Contact: 909.489.2955
  49. 49. Arizona Latino Attitudes © Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Impact on voting in 2010 Contact: 909.489.2955
  50. 50. Arizona Latino Attitudes © Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Impact on Voting in 2010 Among those who follow political news very closely Contact: 909.489.2955
  51. 51. Arizona Latino Attitudes © Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Impact on Voting in 2010 Among those who follow political news very closely Contact: 909.489.2955
  52. 52. Arizona Latino Attitudes © Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Impact on Voting in 2010 Among those who follow political news very closely Contact: 909.489.2955
  53. 53. <ul><li>Immigration can significantly affect the 2010 Elections; </li></ul><ul><li>Perceptions of Democratic inaction, or the view that the President has broken his promise on this issue, substantially reduce enthusiasm for voting in Nov </li></ul><ul><li>Affirmative movement on the issue is key to mobilizing the Latino electorate. </li></ul><ul><li>Throughout, Latinos who do not see Dems protecting their interests, are very unlikely to vote in Nov </li></ul>Arizona Latino Attitudes Summary of Effects on 2010
  54. 54. <ul><li>The Arizona statute has moved immigration front and center in the minds of Latino registered voters; </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The issue carries high salience across all conceivable demographics of Latino voters </li></ul></ul><ul><li>The Latino electorate’s response is more sophisticated than some might have expected: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>They are suspicious of Democratic and administration commitment on the issue; </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>In the absence of action, GOP misbehavior will not be sufficient to mobilize a Latino voting block, which is currently very energized </li></ul></ul>Arizona Latino Attitudes CONCLUDING THOUGHTS
  55. 55. Arizona Latino Attitudes Matt A. Barreto, Ph.D. [email_address] 909-489-2955 Gary M. Segura, Ph.D. [email_address] 206-280-5069 Questions…

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