Smc Newsletter January 06


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Smc Newsletter January 06

  1. 1. Overshoot: The Ecological Basis of Revolutionary Change--William R. Catton, Jr. This is a 25-year-old book about our ecological situation, given that we have hugely expanded our population by using a depletable resource. In the context of the others, this is a chilling book. Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed--Jared Diamond. The Final Energy Crisis--Andrew McKillop. This is a collection of articles by various authors. Blood and Oil: The Dangers and Consequences of America’s Growing Dependency on Imported Announcing--the formation of a citizens’ group preparing for oil and gas peak Petroleum—Michael T. Klare and decline. Oil Addiction: The World in Peril—Pierre Chomat, Petroleum Engineer and local author. Interesting and original presentation—dramatizes the situation in a way that is easy to understand. Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy—Matthew R. Simmons. Makes a very solid case that Saudi reserves and production capacity are overstated. High Noon for Natural Gas: The New Energy Crisis—Julian Darley The Empty Tank: Oil, Gas, Hot Air, and the Coming Global Financial Catastrophe—Jeremy Leggett Oil Crisis—Colin J. Campbell. A new book by one of the pioneers on the topic. Videos— The End of Suburbia: Oil Depletion and the Collapse of the American Dream Peak Oil: Imposed by Nature Websites— Post Carbon Institute Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO) The Dry Dipstick The Energy Bulletin Gas and oil Depletion—Scotland Museletter Oil Depletion Analysis Center Peak Oil and Gas—Global Public Media The Oil Drum Figure 1: World liquid fossil fuels history and projected future (Colin Campbell) Why? The world is going to change profoundly and everyone will be affected-- • Because North American natural gas production has peaked and has begun to decline. • Because natural gas is difficult and dangerous to import from other continents. • Because US oil production peaked in 1970 and began a long decline that continues today, even though almost everything that’s supposed to guarantee an increase in global production happened here: o Offshore oil was later fully developed in the Gulf of Mexico. o Oil prices more than doubled in 1973-4 and more than doubled again in 1979-81. o The Alaska Pipeline opened in 1977. o Great technical progress followed the decline  3-D seismic imaging of geological structures  horizontal well drilling and “maximum reservoir contact”  tertiary recovery methods, such as the use of steam and solvents increased in use in older wells. o Oil companies and the US government vehemently denied a US peak was imminent. • Because the global discovery of oil peaked more than 40 years ago Newsletter Editor—Mark Folsom, 831 648 1543,
  2. 2. • o It was just 40 years between the peak of discovery and the peak of extraction in the Space heating for homes, schools, hospitals, businesses, etc. • US. Military operations o Extraction has exceeded discovery since 1980—today by a factor of four. • Police and fire Is there anything we can do to adapt? YES! • Improve the energy efficiency of everything we do. • Increase the availability of mass transportation. • Develop renewable alternatives to fossil fuels. • Reduce the distance between producers and consumers. • Substitute the use of rail and water transport for trucking and air transport. • Restructure communities to reduce the need to drive. • Change driving style to conserve fuel. • Reduce the degree of processing of food. • Purchase organically grown food when feasible. • Move down the food chain. • Reduce, reuse, recycle… • Insert your ideas here. Are we doing all these things? NO! …but we must begin. Please join us at our first public meeting, January 17, 6:30 to 8:30 at the Central Avenue Bakery, 174 Central Avenue, Pacific Grove, CA. Consider coming early to get dinner and support the Bakery. Further information: Books— Out of Gas, David Goodstein--a decent little primer for those with a short attention span, Figure 2: US oil production record with two different curve fits (Stuart Staniford, The Oil Drum) with a lot of the basic facts and a summary of our situation. Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage--Kenneth Deffeyes, retired petroleum …There’s a lot more evidence, and we are glad to help you find it. geologist describes petroleum geology, discovery methods, etc. He worked with Hubbert at Shell and discusses some of the forecasting methods Hubbert used to accurately predict peak oil What will be affected by the decline in oil and gas supplies? production in the US lower 48, as well as using similar methods to forecast the world production • Transportation--almost all transportation is powered by oil. peak. o Food and other goods transport Beyond Oil: The View From Hubbert's Peak--Kenneth Deffeyes. In this one he discusses o Tourism more about forecasting and makes a semiserious prediction that conventional world oil production o Commuting will peak on Thanksgiving, 2005. He also discusses the main alternatives to conventional oil and o Shopping and other errands the reasons why none of them will be ready to replace cheap oil when we reach the downhill side • Food production & distribution, etc. of the peak. o The production, processing, transportation and preservation of an average calorie of The Oil Factor: Protect Yourself and Profit from the Coming Energy Crisis--Stephen and US food entails the use of about 10 calories from fossil fuels. Donna Leeb, gives advice for investors in the post-peak environment. o US food travels an average of 1500 miles from farm to table. The Party's Over--Richard Heinberg, gives a summary and background of oil production o Farm machinery is powered by oil. and use in the beginning, cites some really good data from other people in the middle, and then presents ideas about what to do about it at the end. o Pesticides are made from oil. The Long Emergency--James Howard Kunstler. I think he's a little too glib and a little too o Fertilizers are made from natural gas. gleeful about the collapse of American society. • Chemicals and plastics are almost universally based on oil and gas feedstocks. Newsletter Editor—Mark Folsom, 831 648 1543,
  3. 3. The End of Oil: On the Edge of a Perilous New World--Paul Roberts, goes into a lot of stories about different aspects of the problem. Newsletter Editor—Mark Folsom, 831 648 1543,