Strengthening  Public and Private Credit Registry Ties   Jun 20, 2011  2004 UCMS, Inc. Confidential and Proprietary  Repr...
Public and Private Sectors Working together in harmony or discord?! <ul><li>Public credit registries (PCR) sharing of non-...
<ul><li>“ Self-interest doesn’t just govern, it RULES” </li></ul>Jun 20, 2011
Priming the Cooperation Pump <ul><li>Expecting parties to share goes against simple game theory </li></ul><ul><li>What pri...
Jumpstarting A Country’s Credit System with Thin File Analysis (TFA) Jun 20, 2011 Incomplete Files (Private) Credit  Syste...
Jun 20, 2011
Thin File Analysis (TFA) Leverages <ul><li>TFA gives private credit registries a technique without full cooperation of PCR...
A Quantum Leap Forward  With Thin File Analysis Jun 20, 2011 Old Way  (Bad Chicken, Bad Egg) Thin File Analysis Who Privat...
Origins of TFA <ul><li>Thin file analysis was used where public information was there but not organized </li></ul><ul><li>...
The Old Way Jun 20, 2011 f (  ) The old technique of measuring credit worthiness with a score from 350-800.  This (...
When the Old Way Works Great <ul><li>In countries with a mature credit industry </li></ul><ul><li>Great with fully stocked...
Fighting Over Crumbs <ul><li>Mature credit industry countries don’t bicker over who controls credit data </li></ul><ul><li...
Adding a New Axis-    Public Registries Jun 20, 2011 “ f” is the function with traditional credit data with CRAs “ e” func...
Thin File Analysis Marries Both… Jun 20, 2011 “ f” is the function with traditional credit data “ e” function factors in a...
The New Way Jun 20, 2011 You set how much influence the epsilon function gets
Recipe for a Rough Transition Jun 20, 2011 f usa  (  ) The credit scoring system is directly imported from one coun...
Why direct transferal doesn’t work. <ul><li>Cultural differences in perception of credit default </li></ul><ul><li>Differe...
Customize an “Imported” Credit System Jun 20, 2011 “ f” is the function with traditional credit data “ e” function factors...
Sequence of Steps to a Country Specific System Jun 20, 2011 <ul><li>(2) is goal for China in the goal for 2007 </li></ul><...
Private Registries And-    Public Registries Jun 20, 2011 “ f” is the PRIVATE function that slightly depends on “e” functi...
Perhaps Yet  Another  Axis is Needed Jun 20, 2011                                                                         ...
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Larry Chiang CEO World Bank Presentation

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Credit underwriting and third party data confirmation

China Debit Reporting Bureau
http://www.ucms.com/Larry-Chiang-World-Bank-Beijing-Presentation.htm

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Larry Chiang CEO World Bank Presentation

  1. 1. Strengthening Public and Private Credit Registry Ties Jun 20, 2011  2004 UCMS, Inc. Confidential and Proprietary Reproduction Prohibited World Bank 2004 In Beijing By Larry Chiang
  2. 2. Public and Private Sectors Working together in harmony or discord?! <ul><li>Public credit registries (PCR) sharing of non-sufficient data amongst multiple agencies / branches of government </li></ul><ul><li>Private sector sometimes fears losing competitive advantage if data is “pooled” with weaker companies </li></ul><ul><li>No great models available to blueprint cooperation techniques </li></ul><ul><li>PCRs don’t share data to make data better </li></ul>Jun 20, 2011
  3. 3. <ul><li>“ Self-interest doesn’t just govern, it RULES” </li></ul>Jun 20, 2011
  4. 4. Priming the Cooperation Pump <ul><li>Expecting parties to share goes against simple game theory </li></ul><ul><li>What primes the pump? A government mandate, an olive branch, a philanthropic corporation, or… </li></ul><ul><li>A technical tool that works with EXISTING data </li></ul>Jun 20, 2011
  5. 5. Jumpstarting A Country’s Credit System with Thin File Analysis (TFA) Jun 20, 2011 Incomplete Files (Private) Credit System Old Credit Data New Credit Data TFA Private Sector Data Public Sector Data PCA Not Commercially Organized Add’l Dimension Adjust The Axis of Emphasis
  6. 6. Jun 20, 2011
  7. 7. Thin File Analysis (TFA) Leverages <ul><li>TFA gives private credit registries a technique without full cooperation of PCRs (Public Credit Registries) </li></ul><ul><li>TFA allows for a “first stab” at credit underwriting </li></ul><ul><li>TFA is dynamic and adjusts to the level of cooperation (initially low interdependence, later more cooperation) </li></ul><ul><li>TFA helps a developing nation “import” a mature nation’s credit scoring system without symptoms and side effects </li></ul>Jun 20, 2011
  8. 8. A Quantum Leap Forward With Thin File Analysis Jun 20, 2011 Old Way (Bad Chicken, Bad Egg) Thin File Analysis Who Private and public sectors are at odds Together Where Your server Your server What Scorecard unknown Formula + FICO Development When Not really even once ‘ Underwritten’ 3x Why Stab in the Dark Scientific! How Copy from other country and hope for non-collapse Custom Country Optimization ++
  9. 9. Origins of TFA <ul><li>Thin file analysis was used where public information was there but not organized </li></ul><ul><li>Private registries (Experian Equifax Trans Union) had thin credit files (i.e. very little credit data) </li></ul><ul><li>TFA bridged the gap </li></ul><ul><li>TFA catalyzed underwriting and credit line scoring </li></ul>Jun 20, 2011
  10. 10. The Old Way Jun 20, 2011 f (  ) The old technique of measuring credit worthiness with a score from 350-800. This (with all its parameters) is a one dimensional match.
  11. 11. When the Old Way Works Great <ul><li>In countries with a mature credit industry </li></ul><ul><li>Great with fully stocked public data compilation that is “organized” and “accessible”. Public data by its nature is difficult to access, process and underwrite </li></ul><ul><li>Its great when the credit industry is ONE BIG COOKIE… not when its crumbs you’re piecing together. </li></ul>Jun 20, 2011
  12. 12. Fighting Over Crumbs <ul><li>Mature credit industry countries don’t bicker over who controls credit data </li></ul><ul><li>Burgeoning credit countries wrangle over control of data </li></ul><ul><li>Thin file analysis “primes the pump” when credit files are thin and morsels of public record data can scientifically build up a credit system </li></ul>Jun 20, 2011
  13. 13. Adding a New Axis- Public Registries Jun 20, 2011 “ f” is the function with traditional credit data with CRAs “ e” function factors in applicant data, gov’t agency data & more
  14. 14. Thin File Analysis Marries Both… Jun 20, 2011 “ f” is the function with traditional credit data “ e” function factors in applicant data, gov’t agencies & more                                                                                                     
  15. 15. The New Way Jun 20, 2011 You set how much influence the epsilon function gets
  16. 16. Recipe for a Rough Transition Jun 20, 2011 f usa (  ) The credit scoring system is directly imported from one country to Another. Charge-offs shoot over 17% f korea (  )
  17. 17. Why direct transferal doesn’t work. <ul><li>Cultural differences in perception of credit default </li></ul><ul><li>Different realities of credit default </li></ul><ul><li>Behavior predictions based on income to asset ratio don’t transfer country to country </li></ul><ul><li>Private credit registries wield different influences </li></ul>Jun 20, 2011
  18. 18. Customize an “Imported” Credit System Jun 20, 2011 “ f” is the function with traditional credit data “ e” function factors in applicant data, gov’t agencies & more                                                                                                     
  19. 19. Sequence of Steps to a Country Specific System Jun 20, 2011 <ul><li>(2) is goal for China in the goal for 2007 </li></ul><ul><li>Is the goal for 2011 </li></ul><ul><li>(4) Is the goal for 2015 </li></ul>
  20. 20. Private Registries And- Public Registries Jun 20, 2011 “ f” is the PRIVATE function that slightly depends on “e” function “ e” is the PUBLIC function supports a temporarily weak “f” function
  21. 21. Perhaps Yet Another Axis is Needed Jun 20, 2011                                                                                                                                

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