Namibian Democracy Consolidated

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Namibian Democracy Consolidated? Democracy is More than Free and Fair Elections. VDM Mueller, Germany, 2008.

Namibian Democracy Consolidated? Democracy is More than Free and Fair Elections. VDM Mueller, Germany, 2008.

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  • 1. Namibian democracy consolidated?
    Democracy is more than free and fair elections
    Lari Kangas
  • 2. Namibian democracy consolidated?
    18 years of peace
    Dramatic growing gap between rich and poor
    Free and fair elections, high voting turnout
    Swapo winning more than 2/3, weak opposition
    Local Power Brokers –Andre du Pisani
    No line between the state and the leading party
    Article §48 of the Constitution, and
    The role of the Justice Service Commission
    Lari Kangas
  • 3. 12.12.2008
    Lari Kangas
    MA Thesis
    University of Stellenbosch
  • 4. What i didn’twant to say
    “Once a country has a democratic regime, its level of economic development has a very strong effect on the probability that democracy will survive. Poor democracies, particularly those with annual per-capita income of less than $1,000, are extremely fragile: based on our study, the probability that one will die during a particular year is 0,12. This rate falls to 0,06 in the $1,000 to $2,000 range, to 0,03 between $2,000 and $4,000, and to 0,01 between $4,000 and $6,000. These numbers mean that a democracy can be expected to last an average of about 8,5 years in a country with per-capita income under $1,000 per annum, 16 years in one with income between $1,000 and $2,000, 33 years between $2,000 and $4,000, and 100 years between $4,000 and $6,000”
    - Przeworski et al. 1996, p. 40-41.
    Lari Kangas
  • 5. What i did want to say - inequalities
    “If a democracy never produced policies that generated government mandated public goods in the areas of education, health, and transportation some safety net for its citizens hurt by major market swings, and some alleviation of gross inequality, democracy would not be sustainable”
    - Linz&Stepan 1996, p. 12.
    • Inequalities, lack of middle class and lack of local investments hinder democratic consolidation
    • 6. Super-rich and the poor (investments abroad and no investments) pesters development
    • 7. Namibian investments abroad $200M and foreign investments to Namibia $80M (UNDP 2000)
    • 8. More than poorest 50% make collectively in a year
    Lari Kangas
  • 9. Namibia - economic breakdown
    Country of super-rich and super-poor, the most unequal country in the World (UNDP-Namibia report)
    Richest 10% better welfare than Luxemburg
    Richest 22% better welfare than Sweden
    Poorest 78% worse welfare than Liberia
    Over 50% of women live well below poverty line, $0,36 /day
    Lari Kangas
  • 10. 12.12.2008
    Lari Kangas
    [1] The purchasing power parity used for Namibia is the same than found for South Africa 2002. US$2600 in South Africa translated to US$9870 purchasing power. This gives us a multiply of 3,8.
  • 11. Namibia - incomes
    Lari Kangas
  • 12. Namibia and finland - incomes
    Lari Kangas
  • 13. GDP per capita vs. human development index
    GDP per capita ranking remains the same
    Human Development Index ranking dropping
    • Namibia surpassed Brazil and Bangladesh as one of the most unequal countries in the World, with Ginicoefficiency of 0,72 and growing (UNDP-Namibia, 2000)
    • 14. Gap between macroeconomic indicators and human development is widening
    • 15. If we conclude that globalization widens the gap, in Namibia the gap is widening even faster
    • 16. 2 rankings per year
    Lari Kangas
  • 17. local power brokers
    Opposition doesn’t have the means for development
    Remains in the Windhoek elite
    Lari Kangas
    ”If a well-pump, the lifeline of the village, breaks down in the North, the village will not seek help from the local government, but the Swapo local power broker, who then delivers the help”
    • ProfAndre du Pisani, UNAM
  • Line between the state and the leadingparty
    Non existing
    Means of the state at Swapo’s disposal – local power brokers
    • Opposition breaking away from Swapo ranks, remaining in Windhoek, therefore not meaningful
    • 18. Swapo-D, CoD, RDP
    Lari Kangas
  • 19. ”Most progressive and democratic Constitution in Africa”
    • MarttiAhtisaari and the international community 1990
    ”Leading democracy in Africa”
    • MarttiAhtisaari 2000
    Lari Kangas
    The constitution
  • 20. Chapter 7, article §48 vacation of seats
    Members of the National Assembly shall vacate their seats:
    (b) If the political party which nominated them to sit in the National Assembly informs the Speaker that such members are no longer members of such party;
    If the seats of member of the National Assembly is vacated in terms of Sub-Article (1) hereof, the political party which nominated such member to sit in the National Assembly shall be entitled to fill the vacancy by nominating any person on the party’s election list compiled for the previous general election, or if there be no such person, by nominating any member of the party.
    Lari Kangas
  • 21. Separation of powers
    Article §48 not in line with the rest of the Constitution
    Article §1 (3) states separation of powers to the Executive, the Legislature and the Judicial branch of Government
    Article §48 gives the right for the party to resign and appoint Members of Parliament without elections
    If 2/3 for one party
    If party leadership is not democratically elected, and
    If the President is the same person as the Chairman of the leading party
    Then the President (the Executive) controls the National Assembly (the Legislative branch)
    Lari Kangas
  • 22. Separation of powers
    Article §82
    “All appointments of Judges to the Supreme Court and the High Court shall be made by the President on the recommendation of the Judicial Service Commission…”
    Article §84
    “A Judge may be removed from office before the expiry of his or her tenure only by the President acting on the recommendation of the Judicial Service Commission”
    Same with appointing and resigning the Attorney-General and the Prosecutor-General
    Lari Kangas
  • 23. Judicial service commission
    Article §85
    ”There shall be a Judicial Service Commission consisting of the Chief Justice, a Judge appointed by the President, the Attorney-General and two members of the legal profession…”
    3/5 members depend on the goodwill of the President
     With control of the JSC the President (the Executive) controls all appointments and resignations of the Judicial branch.
    Lari Kangas
  • 24. In conclusion
    Namibia has not consolidated her democracy
    And is not going to that direction either
    Economic inequalities
    No viable opposition
    No separation of state and the leading party
    No separation of powers in the Government
    Lari Kangas