Climate crisisscience3

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PP about how scientists and the media report about the climate crisis. Lecture shared with students at FAMU.

PP about how scientists and the media report about the climate crisis. Lecture shared with students at FAMU.

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  • Scientific process Objective, verifiable results. Released through refereed scientific journals. When a mistake is found, it’s incumbent upon the scientist to admit his or her mistake to maintain professional standing. The way journalists approach their craft is different. We teach students to identify the newsworthiness of a story, using the acronym TIPCUP, which stands for Timeliness, Impact, Proximity, Conflict, Unusualness, or Prominence. There’s the idea of balance … or that there are probably at least two sides to a story. The problem in covering a story such as climate change, however, is that often a climate scientist who speaks about the vast majority of scientific research that proves anthropomorphic, or human-induced, climate change is pitted against a nonscientist spokesperson from an industry-funded organization or someone representing a minority opinion. Unlike scientists, who feel compelled to publicly correct their mistakes, nonscientists are under no such compunction. And their false statements are regularly repeated across traditional media and the Internet in what has been dubbed the “echo chamber.” If people see something in print, hear it on the news, or read it on the Internet, they’re often persuaded to believe it – especially if that information confirms their existing beliefs.
  • IPCC founded in 1988 by the United Nations Environmental Programme in cooperation with the World Meteorological Organization. “Summary for Policymakers” reviewed by governments & scientists on a consensus basis Goal: Assessing scientific information relevant to: Human-induced climate change. The impacts of human-induced climate change. Options for adaptation and mitigation. The actual work of the IPCC is done by unpaid volunteers – thousands of scientists at universities and research institutes around the world who contribute as authors or reviewers to the completion of the IPCC reports. A large fraction of the relevant scientific community is thus involved in the effort.  Won Nobel Peace Prize in 2007 with former VP Al Gore. Create every few years a “Summary for Policymakers” reviewed by governments & scientists on a consensus basis – including oil-producing giants (Russia, Saudi Arabia, Argentina); awakening giants (India & China); and existing giants (U.S.). USDA Agricultural Research Service (ARS) Predicting & managing how agricultural systems will respond NOAA Sea Grant Awards – Mini-grants announcement: “Issues related to climate change are a Sea Grant priority.” RELIGIONS U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops: Renewing the Earth     T he following quotes are from Renewing the Earth , a statement by the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops delivered on November 14, 1991.   A t its core, the environmental crisis is a moral challenge.  It calls us to examine how we use and share the goods of the earth, what we pass on to future generations, and how we live in harmony with God's creation. T he environmental crisis of our day constitutes an exceptional call to conversion.  As individuals, as institutions, as a people, we need a change of heart to save the planet for our children and generations yet unborn. T he human family is charged with preserving the beauty, diversity, and integrity of nature, as well as with fostering its productivity.  Yet, God alone is sovereign over the whole earth. F or believers, our faith is tested by our concern and care for creation. T o ensure the survival of a healthy planet, then, we must not only establish a sustainable economy but must also labor for justice both within and among nations.  We must seek a society where economic life and environmental commitment work together to protect and to enhance life on this planet. O ur tradition calls us to protect the life and dignity of the human person, and it is increasingly clear that this task cannot be separated from the care and defense of all creation. (Downloaded 5/5/2010 from http://conservation.catholic.org/u_s_bishops.htm) The Evangelical Climate Initiative: Now is the time for followers of Christ to help solve the global warming crisis. There is overwhelming evidence that human activity is a major cause, and we know that the impacts of climate change would be hardest on the poor and vulnerable, and on future generations. · We need to act, and everyone has a role. Christian leaders can join more than 280 other senior evangelical leaders who have signed the Evangelical Call to Action on Climate Change. As Christian citizens we can learn more, make personal changes, and rally action. For policymakers , it’s time to make wise and moral choices to protect God’s world and its people. · Join us. Take the next step. Learn more about our partnership with Esperanza USA by clicking here . Also, if you are an evangelical Christian we invite you to join our grassroots network. Joining will allow you to receive updates on how Christians are involved in the task of protecting the climate and the people who depend on it. You also find out ways you can pray, support, and partner in this work. MILITARY The Pentagon has already made it well known that it considers climate change a grave national security threat , and recently the US military already pointed out that the world may face severe oil shortages as soon as 2015. But now, in what's being hailed as an "unprecedented" show of support for climate action, 33 retired US military generals and admirals have united to alert the public and our legislators that "climate change is making the world a more dangerous place." They should know -- they've seen its effects firsthand. Here's their full announcement: The report, "Re-energizing America's Defense," says the military has found that climate change may lead to domestic and international instability by threatening water and food supplies. In addition, stronger storms caused by emissions could increase the need for humanitarian missions by the military both at home and abroad, which could stretch resources. The U.S. military's Quadrennial Defense Review, an assessment of the international security environment released in February, said climate change may hasten instability and conflicts placing burdens on militaries around the world.
  • IPCC founded in 1988 by the United Nations Environmental Programme in cooperation with the World Meteorological Organization. “Summary for Policymakers” reviewed by governments & scientists on a consensus basis Goal: Assessing scientific information relevant to: Human-induced climate change. The impacts of human-induced climate change. Options for adaptation and mitigation. The actual work of the IPCC is done by unpaid volunteers – thousands of scientists at universities and research institutes around the world who contribute as authors or reviewers to the completion of the IPCC reports. A large fraction of the relevant scientific community is thus involved in the effort.  Won Nobel Peace Prize in 2007 with former VP Al Gore. Create every few years a “Summary for Policymakers” reviewed by governments & scientists on a consensus basis – including oil-producing giants (Russia, Saudi Arabia, Argentina); awakening giants (India & China); and existing giants (U.S.). 1 Throughout the science section of this Web site, use of "virtual certainty" (or virtually certain) conveys a greater than 99% chance that a result is true. Other terms used to communicate confidence include “extremely likely” (greater than 95% chance the result is true), "very likely" (greater than 90% chance the result is true), "likely" (greater than 66% chance the result is true), “more likely than not” (greater than 50% chance the result is true), “unlikely” (less than 33% chance the result is true), “very unlikely” (less than 10% chance the result is true), and “extremely unlikely” (less than 5% chance the result is true). These judgmental estimates originate from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC, 2007 ).
  • NASA & NOAA: This graph, based on the comparison of atmospheric samples contained in ice cores and more recent direct measurements, provides evidence that atmospheric CO 2 has increased since the Industrial Revolution. (Source: NOAA ; http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/ ) The Earth's climate has changed throughout history. Just in the last 650,000 years there have been seven cycles of glacial advance and retreat, with the abrupt end of the last ice age about 7,000 years ago marking the beginning of the modern climate era — and of human civilization. Most of these changes are attributed to very small changes in the Earth’s orbit changing the amount of solar energy the Earth receives. "Scientific evidence for warming of the climate system is unequivocal." - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change The current warming trend is of particular significance because most of it is very likely human-induced and proceeding at a rate that is unprecedented in the past 1,300 years. 1 Earth-orbiting satellites and other technological advances have enabled scientists to see the big picture, collecting many different types of information about our planet and its climate on a global scale. Studying these climate data collected over many years reveal the signals of a changing climate. Certain facts about Earths climate are not in dispute: The heat-trapping nature of carbon dioxide and other gases was demonstrated in the mid-19th century. 2 Their ability to affect the transfer of infrared energy through the atmosphere is the scientific basis of many JPL-designed instruments, such as AIRS. Increased levels of greenhouse gases must cause the Earth to warm in response. Ice cores drawn from Greenland, Antarctica, and tropical mountain glaciers show that the Earth’s climate responds to changes in solar output, in the Earth’s orbit, and in greenhouse gas levels. They also show that in the past, large changes in climate have happened very quickly, geologically-speaking: in tens of years, not in millions or even thousands. 3 CO2 (major greenhouse gas) traps heat & warms the planet. Human civilization: 7,000 years ago. Great Experiment: Rapid rise since Industrial Revolution 10 of warmest years in last 12 Warmest January-June 2010 on track to be the warmest year on the planet in recorded history
  • Conditions in context Air temperatures over much of the Arctic were 2 to 6 degrees Celsius (4 to 11 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal in January. Over the eastern Canadian Arctic Archipelago, Baffin Bay/Davis Strait and Labrador Sea, temperatures were at least 6 degrees Celsius (11 degrees Fahrenheit) higher than average. Temperatures were near average over the western Canadian Arctic Archipelago and Scandinavia. As in December 2010, the warm temperatures in January came from two sources: unfrozen areas of the ocean continued to release heat to the atmosphere, and the wind patterns accompanying the negative phase of the Arctic oscillation brought warm air into the Arctic. Near the end of January the negative Arctic oscillation pattern broke down and turned positive, which usually favors ice growth. It is unclear how long it will remain in a positive mode. Declining Arctic sea ice Both the extent and thickness of Arctic sea ice has declined rapidly over the last several decades. 9 Shrinking ice sheets The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have decreased in mass. Data from NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment show Greenland lost 150 to 250 cubic kilometers (36 to 60 cubic miles) of ice per year between 2002 and 2006, while Antarctica lost about 152 cubic kilometers (36 cubic miles) of ice between 2002 and 2005. All three major global surface temperature reconstructions – from NASA, NOAA and the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia – show that the Earth has warmed since 1880. 5 Most of this warming has occurred since the 1970s, with the 20 warmest years having occurred since 1981 and with all 10 of the warmest years occurring in the past 12 years. 6 Even though the 2000s witnessed a solar output decline resulting in an unusually deep solar minimum in 2007-2009, surface temperatures continue to increase. 7 5 http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/anomalies/index.html http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp 6 T.C. Peterson et.al., "State of the Climate in 2008," Special Supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, v. 90, no. 8, August 2009, pp. S17-S18. 7 I. Allison et.al., The Copenhagen Diagnosis: Updating the World on the Latest Climate Science, UNSW Climate Change Research Center, Sydney, Australia, 2009, p. 11 http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20100121/ http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/01apr_deepsolarminimum.htm National Snow and Ice Data Center World Glacier Monitoring Service reports that glaciers are retreating almost everywhere around the world — including in the Alps, Himalayas, Andes, Rockies, Alaska and Africa. Global sea level rose about 17 centimeters (6.7 inches) in the last century. The rate in the last decade, however, is nearly double that of the last century. 4 (From http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/) Maldives = cluster of tiny Southeast Asian islands in the Indian Ocean. Maldives has a particularly dire stake in the battle to avert global warming as the lowest-lying nation on the planet , with islands averaging only 7 feet above sea level.  In mid-October 2009, Maldives President Mohamed Nasheed and his cabinet ministers held the half-hour meeting underwater to sign a document calling on all nations to cut their carbon emissions.  They hoped to send a loud, clear message that the climate change conference in Copenhagen this December cannot be allowed to fail. Oceans Warming (From Scientific American) The oceans have absorbed much of this increased heat, with the top 700 meters (about 2,300 feet) of ocean showing warming of 0.302 degrees Fahrenheit since 1969. 8 (From http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/) From “Scientific American”: Records stretching back to 1960 prove what climate models had predicted:  warmer oceans contain less oxygen. Oceanographer Lothar Stramma of the University of Kiel in Germany and his colleagues report in Science that an analysis of historical records and recent samples show that as the globe has warmed, waters with low oxygen content have expanded in the tropical Atlantic and equatorial Pacific oceans. Fish and other sea life cannot survive in such waters—and this expansion reduces the area where fish can thrive, says oceanographer Janet Sprintall of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in La Jolla, Calif., who also coauthored the study. She notes that fisheries may be affected as well. These low-oxygen zones form naturally as colder waters that have absorbed oxygen in the polar regions sink and flow south. They're different from the so-called dead zones that form at the mouths of rivers whose polluted waters prompt algal blooms. As these currents travel, the water loses oxygen as dead algae, plankton and other organic matter decay. But these low-oxygen waters near the equator are expanding, because the water in the polar regions is not as cold and is not absorbing as much oxygen as it used to be. In fact, the Atlantic waters with less oxygen than many fish need to survive doubled in depth, "from a thickness of 370 meters [1200 feet] in 1960 to 690 meters [2264 feet] in 2006," the researchers write. Despite the importance of oxygen levels, relatively little information has been collected across the vast watery reaches of earth and this research is confined to six areas in the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian oceans. The latter showed no change, perhaps because its oxygen-poor waters are already relatively deep or its circulation is weaker, according to the researchers. (May 2, 2008) NYT By LAUREN MORELLO of ClimateWire Published: May 20, 2010 Robot Floats Record Sharp Increase in Upper Ocean Warming -- Study The upper ocean warmed considerably over the past decade and a half, according to a new study that attempts to make sense of conflicting analyses of the amount of heat stored in the world's seas. Between 1993 and 2008, the study finds, the upper 700 meters of the oceans absorbed about 0.6 watts per square meter of energy. That is roughly equivalent to the power of 2 billion copies of the atomic bomb the United States dropped on Hiroshima, Japan, during World War II, said lead author John Lyman, an oceanographer at the University of Hawaii's Joint Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research. "Ocean heat content is a very good indicator for how the entire planet is warming," he said, because the seas serve as a massive planetary heat sink. "A percentage of the incoming radiation [from the sun] is trapped on our planet by greenhouse gases, and it turns out that about 80 to 90 percent of that heat is trapped in the ocean." Lyman's research team, whose work was published yesterday by the journal Nature , found a warming trend six times larger than the uncertainty inherent in the ocean heat data they analyzed. Several research teams have attempted to determine how quickly the ocean is warming. But while they agree the seas have warmed over the last 15 years, the year-to-year estimates of the groups don't agree. Towed Navy temperature tool is replaced The new research identifies several sources of uncertainty and bias, including that inherent in expendable bathythermographs, or XBTs, once the main tool for measuring the heat of the ocean. From the 1960s until the widespread deployment of a much more accurate measurement tool in 2004 -- the Argo float -- XBT probes "were the dominant tool we had for looking at how the water was," said Josh Willis, an author of the study and an oceanographer at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Designed for the Navy, XBTs were intended to measure temperature at various depths from a moving ship. The data they collected aren't as accurate as scientists would like for climate analyses. But over time, Willis said, they inadvertently became the main source of data for understanding how warm the oceans were in past decades. "What our study shows is because they weren't really designed to be this accurate, there's still a large amount of error in the data," he said. "Efforts are ongoing to remove and account for these errors. But despite the errors, the global warming signal is larger." Still some puzzles to be solved These days, scientists collect the majority of ocean heat measurements using more than 3,200 Argo floats now deployed in the world's oceans. The probes drift below the ocean surface at prescribed depths for days at a time, collecting data on their journey back to the surface, where they beam their observations to waiting satellites. Then the little floats sink back into the ocean to begin again, repeating the process thousands of times during their three- to five-year lifespans. Kevin Trenberth, head of the climate analysis section at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, said in an interview that the new paper finds a warming signal that is "reasonably consistent with expectations from other indications of global warming." But Trenberth said it does not address a key question surrounding the ocean heat measurements. Since about 2003, the rate of upper ocean warming appears to have slowed to a crawl, and scientists aren't sure why. Measurements of the solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere suggest the upper ocean should be warming faster than it has in recent years. Trenberth suspects the ocean may be warming at depths Argo floats and other instruments aren't reaching. "This discrepancy suggests that further problems may be hidden within the ocean observations and their processing," he wrote in an essay accompanying the new Nature paper. Copyright 2010 E&E Publishing. All Rights Reserved. The Baltimore Sun: Warming oceans harbinger of climate change A new study finds that the upper layer of the world's oceans has warmed since 1993, which researchers say is a strong signal that the planet's climate is changing. "We are seeing the global ocean store more heat than it gives off,” John Lyman, an oceanographer with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Joint Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research  and lead author of the study, said in a news release .  The study's findings are being published in the journal Nature today (May 20). Ocean acidification The carbon dioxide content of the Earth’s oceans has been increasing since 1750, and is currently increasing about 2 billion tons per year. This has increased ocean acidity by about 30 percent. 12
  • Declining Arctic sea ice Both the extent and thickness of Arctic sea ice has declined rapidly over the last several decades. 9 Shrinking ice sheets The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have decreased in mass. Data from NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment show Greenland lost 150 to 250 cubic kilometers (36 to 60 cubic miles) of ice per year between 2002 and 2006, while Antarctica lost about 152 cubic kilometers (36 cubic miles) of ice between 2002 and 2005. Global sea level rose about 17 centimeters (6.7 inches) in the last century. The rate in the last decade, however, is nearly double that of the last century. 4 (From http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/) Maldives = cluster of tiny Southeast Asian islands in the Indian Ocean. Maldives has a particularly dire stake in the battle to avert global warming as the lowest-lying nation on the planet , with islands averaging only 7 feet above sea level.  In mid-October 2009, Maldives President Mohamed Nasheed and his cabinet ministers held the half-hour meeting underwater to sign a document calling on all nations to cut their carbon emissions.  They hoped to send a loud, clear message that the climate change conference in Copenhagen this December cannot be allowed to fail. Oceans Warming (From Scientific American) The oceans have absorbed much of this increased heat, with the top 700 meters (about 2,300 feet) of ocean showing warming of 0.302 degrees Fahrenheit since 1969. 8 (From http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/) From “Scientific American”: Records stretching back to 1960 prove what climate models had predicted:  warmer oceans contain less oxygen. Oceanographer Lothar Stramma of the University of Kiel in Germany and his colleagues report in Science that an analysis of historical records and recent samples show that as the globe has warmed, waters with low oxygen content have expanded in the tropical Atlantic and equatorial Pacific oceans. Fish and other sea life cannot survive in such waters—and this expansion reduces the area where fish can thrive, says oceanographer Janet Sprintall of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in La Jolla, Calif., who also coauthored the study. She notes that fisheries may be affected as well. These low-oxygen zones form naturally as colder waters that have absorbed oxygen in the polar regions sink and flow south. They're different from the so-called dead zones that form at the mouths of rivers whose polluted waters prompt algal blooms. As these currents travel, the water loses oxygen as dead algae, plankton and other organic matter decay. But these low-oxygen waters near the equator are expanding, because the water in the polar regions is not as cold and is not absorbing as much oxygen as it used to be. In fact, the Atlantic waters with less oxygen than many fish need to survive doubled in depth, "from a thickness of 370 meters [1200 feet] in 1960 to 690 meters [2264 feet] in 2006," the researchers write. Despite the importance of oxygen levels, relatively little information has been collected across the vast watery reaches of earth and this research is confined to six areas in the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian oceans. The latter showed no change, perhaps because its oxygen-poor waters are already relatively deep or its circulation is weaker, according to the researchers. (May 2, 2008) NYT By LAUREN MORELLO of ClimateWire Published: May 20, 2010 Robot Floats Record Sharp Increase in Upper Ocean Warming -- Study The upper ocean warmed considerably over the past decade and a half, according to a new study that attempts to make sense of conflicting analyses of the amount of heat stored in the world's seas. Between 1993 and 2008, the study finds, the upper 700 meters of the oceans absorbed about 0.6 watts per square meter of energy. That is roughly equivalent to the power of 2 billion copies of the atomic bomb the United States dropped on Hiroshima, Japan, during World War II, said lead author John Lyman, an oceanographer at the University of Hawaii's Joint Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research. "Ocean heat content is a very good indicator for how the entire planet is warming," he said, because the seas serve as a massive planetary heat sink. "A percentage of the incoming radiation [from the sun] is trapped on our planet by greenhouse gases, and it turns out that about 80 to 90 percent of that heat is trapped in the ocean." Lyman's research team, whose work was published yesterday by the journal Nature , found a warming trend six times larger than the uncertainty inherent in the ocean heat data they analyzed. Several research teams have attempted to determine how quickly the ocean is warming. But while they agree the seas have warmed over the last 15 years, the year-to-year estimates of the groups don't agree. Towed Navy temperature tool is replaced The new research identifies several sources of uncertainty and bias, including that inherent in expendable bathythermographs, or XBTs, once the main tool for measuring the heat of the ocean. From the 1960s until the widespread deployment of a much more accurate measurement tool in 2004 -- the Argo float -- XBT probes "were the dominant tool we had for looking at how the water was," said Josh Willis, an author of the study and an oceanographer at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Designed for the Navy, XBTs were intended to measure temperature at various depths from a moving ship. The data they collected aren't as accurate as scientists would like for climate analyses. But over time, Willis said, they inadvertently became the main source of data for understanding how warm the oceans were in past decades. "What our study shows is because they weren't really designed to be this accurate, there's still a large amount of error in the data," he said. "Efforts are ongoing to remove and account for these errors. But despite the errors, the global warming signal is larger." Still some puzzles to be solved These days, scientists collect the majority of ocean heat measurements using more than 3,200 Argo floats now deployed in the world's oceans. The probes drift below the ocean surface at prescribed depths for days at a time, collecting data on their journey back to the surface, where they beam their observations to waiting satellites. Then the little floats sink back into the ocean to begin again, repeating the process thousands of times during their three- to five-year lifespans. Kevin Trenberth, head of the climate analysis section at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, said in an interview that the new paper finds a warming signal that is "reasonably consistent with expectations from other indications of global warming." But Trenberth said it does not address a key question surrounding the ocean heat measurements. Since about 2003, the rate of upper ocean warming appears to have slowed to a crawl, and scientists aren't sure why. Measurements of the solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere suggest the upper ocean should be warming faster than it has in recent years. Trenberth suspects the ocean may be warming at depths Argo floats and other instruments aren't reaching. "This discrepancy suggests that further problems may be hidden within the ocean observations and their processing," he wrote in an essay accompanying the new Nature paper. Copyright 2010 E&E Publishing. All Rights Reserved. The Baltimore Sun: Warming oceans harbinger of climate change A new study finds that the upper layer of the world's oceans has warmed since 1993, which researchers say is a strong signal that the planet's climate is changing. "We are seeing the global ocean store more heat than it gives off,” John Lyman, an oceanographer with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Joint Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research  and lead author of the study, said in a news release .  The study's findings are being published in the journal Nature today (May 20). Ocean acidification The carbon dioxide content of the Earth’s oceans has been increasing since 1750, and is currently increasing about 2 billion tons per year. This has increased ocean acidity by about 30 percent. 12
  • National Snow and Ice Data Center World Glacier Monitoring Service reports that glaciers are retreating almost everywhere around the world — including in the Alps, Himalayas, Andes, Rockies, Alaska and Africa. Global sea level rose about 17 centimeters (6.7 inches) in the last century. The rate in the last decade, however, is nearly double that of the last century. 4 (From http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/) Maldives = cluster of tiny Southeast Asian islands in the Indian Ocean. Maldives has a particularly dire stake in the battle to avert global warming as the lowest-lying nation on the planet , with islands averaging only 7 feet above sea level.  In mid-October 2009, Maldives President Mohamed Nasheed and his cabinet ministers held the half-hour meeting underwater to sign a document calling on all nations to cut their carbon emissions.  They hoped to send a loud, clear message that the climate change conference in Copenhagen this December cannot be allowed to fail. Oceans Warming (From Scientific American) The oceans have absorbed much of this increased heat, with the top 700 meters (about 2,300 feet) of ocean showing warming of 0.302 degrees Fahrenheit since 1969. 8 (From http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/) From “Scientific American”: Records stretching back to 1960 prove what climate models had predicted:  warmer oceans contain less oxygen. Oceanographer Lothar Stramma of the University of Kiel in Germany and his colleagues report in Science that an analysis of historical records and recent samples show that as the globe has warmed, waters with low oxygen content have expanded in the tropical Atlantic and equatorial Pacific oceans. Fish and other sea life cannot survive in such waters—and this expansion reduces the area where fish can thrive, says oceanographer Janet Sprintall of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in La Jolla, Calif., who also coauthored the study. She notes that fisheries may be affected as well. These low-oxygen zones form naturally as colder waters that have absorbed oxygen in the polar regions sink and flow south. They're different from the so-called dead zones that form at the mouths of rivers whose polluted waters prompt algal blooms. As these currents travel, the water loses oxygen as dead algae, plankton and other organic matter decay. But these low-oxygen waters near the equator are expanding, because the water in the polar regions is not as cold and is not absorbing as much oxygen as it used to be. In fact, the Atlantic waters with less oxygen than many fish need to survive doubled in depth, "from a thickness of 370 meters [1200 feet] in 1960 to 690 meters [2264 feet] in 2006," the researchers write. Despite the importance of oxygen levels, relatively little information has been collected across the vast watery reaches of earth and this research is confined to six areas in the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian oceans. The latter showed no change, perhaps because its oxygen-poor waters are already relatively deep or its circulation is weaker, according to the researchers. (May 2, 2008) NYT By LAUREN MORELLO of ClimateWire Published: May 20, 2010 Robot Floats Record Sharp Increase in Upper Ocean Warming -- Study The upper ocean warmed considerably over the past decade and a half, according to a new study that attempts to make sense of conflicting analyses of the amount of heat stored in the world's seas. Between 1993 and 2008, the study finds, the upper 700 meters of the oceans absorbed about 0.6 watts per square meter of energy. That is roughly equivalent to the power of 2 billion copies of the atomic bomb the United States dropped on Hiroshima, Japan, during World War II, said lead author John Lyman, an oceanographer at the University of Hawaii's Joint Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research. "Ocean heat content is a very good indicator for how the entire planet is warming," he said, because the seas serve as a massive planetary heat sink. "A percentage of the incoming radiation [from the sun] is trapped on our planet by greenhouse gases, and it turns out that about 80 to 90 percent of that heat is trapped in the ocean." Lyman's research team, whose work was published yesterday by the journal Nature , found a warming trend six times larger than the uncertainty inherent in the ocean heat data they analyzed. Several research teams have attempted to determine how quickly the ocean is warming. But while they agree the seas have warmed over the last 15 years, the year-to-year estimates of the groups don't agree. Towed Navy temperature tool is replaced The new research identifies several sources of uncertainty and bias, including that inherent in expendable bathythermographs, or XBTs, once the main tool for measuring the heat of the ocean. From the 1960s until the widespread deployment of a much more accurate measurement tool in 2004 -- the Argo float -- XBT probes "were the dominant tool we had for looking at how the water was," said Josh Willis, an author of the study and an oceanographer at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Designed for the Navy, XBTs were intended to measure temperature at various depths from a moving ship. The data they collected aren't as accurate as scientists would like for climate analyses. But over time, Willis said, they inadvertently became the main source of data for understanding how warm the oceans were in past decades. "What our study shows is because they weren't really designed to be this accurate, there's still a large amount of error in the data," he said. "Efforts are ongoing to remove and account for these errors. But despite the errors, the global warming signal is larger." Still some puzzles to be solved These days, scientists collect the majority of ocean heat measurements using more than 3,200 Argo floats now deployed in the world's oceans. The probes drift below the ocean surface at prescribed depths for days at a time, collecting data on their journey back to the surface, where they beam their observations to waiting satellites. Then the little floats sink back into the ocean to begin again, repeating the process thousands of times during their three- to five-year lifespans. Kevin Trenberth, head of the climate analysis section at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, said in an interview that the new paper finds a warming signal that is "reasonably consistent with expectations from other indications of global warming." But Trenberth said it does not address a key question surrounding the ocean heat measurements. Since about 2003, the rate of upper ocean warming appears to have slowed to a crawl, and scientists aren't sure why. Measurements of the solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere suggest the upper ocean should be warming faster than it has in recent years. Trenberth suspects the ocean may be warming at depths Argo floats and other instruments aren't reaching. "This discrepancy suggests that further problems may be hidden within the ocean observations and their processing," he wrote in an essay accompanying the new Nature paper. Copyright 2010 E&E Publishing. All Rights Reserved. The Baltimore Sun: Warming oceans harbinger of climate change A new study finds that the upper layer of the world's oceans has warmed since 1993, which researchers say is a strong signal that the planet's climate is changing. "We are seeing the global ocean store more heat than it gives off,” John Lyman, an oceanographer with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Joint Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research  and lead author of the study, said in a news release .  The study's findings are being published in the journal Nature today (May 20). Ocean acidification The carbon dioxide content of the Earth’s oceans has been increasing since 1750, and is currently increasing about 2 billion tons per year. This has increased ocean acidity by about 30 percent. 12
  • Temperatures have raised enough that the mountain pine beetle can overwinter more easily. “ Milder winters since 1994 have reduced the winter death rate of beetle larvae in Wyoming from 80 percent per year to less than 10 percent. … Meanwhile, hotter, drier summers have made trees weaker and less able to fight off the swarming beetles.” (McKibben, Eaarth, p. 43) The result? “… greatly increased fire risk, followed by mudslide and erosion. Dead trees falling on roads and toppling power lines.” (p. 43) AND more carbon flooding into the atmosphere. In 2000 in Bangladesh, Aedes aegypti, a species of mosquito, has triggered an outbreak of dengue fever. Dengue on the rise again throughout the developing world, particularly in Latin America (2008 outbreak in Brazil; 2009 outbreak in Argentine region resulted in more than a million cases). Half of world’s population now at risk of dengue. Malaria, cholera and other waterborne diseases are on the rise, too. The number of cases of childhood diarrhea goes up 8% for every 1 degree increase in temperature, according to a 2009 Oxfam study (McKibbon, p. 74).
  • According to the NYT, “the last 30 years have yielded 4 times as many weather-related disasters as the 1 st three-quarters of the 20 th century combined.” Hurricanes & cyclones – Rise of 75% over the previous 13 years. In last half decade, we’ve seen the 1 st January tropical cyclone. 1 st known tropical cyclone ever to hit Spain. 2008 – 1 st time that we’ve had a major storm in 5 separate months. 2008 – Tropical Storm Fay crisscrossed Florida 4 times! Heat waves In 2003, heat wave killed 30,000 people in France. In 1995, nearly 500 heat-related deaths in Chicago. Hit the poorest the hardest … without air conditioning. Wind storms – In the last 6 ears, as warming temperatures and drought have killed off native vegetation that holds soil in place, wind storms have dumped 2 times as much dust over the American West. Rainfalls & floods Warm air holds more water vapor than cold. Once the water is in the atmosphere, it will come down. Total rainfall across the continent is up 7% -- more often comes down in downpours, damaging gullywashers. Flash flood this past weekend in Arkansas campground. Extreme events The number of record high temperature events in the United States has been increasing, while the number of record low temperature events has been decreasing, since 1950. The U.S. has also witnessed increasing numbers of intense rainfall events. 11 (Reuters) - Deaths from heat waves, property damage from floods and rising seas from melting glaciers are a few of the things Americans can expect as a result of climate change, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency said in a report released Tuesday. Green Business   |   COP15 The report, called "Climate Change Indicators in the United States," examined the impact of global warming on 24 environmental indicators, such as ice cover and ocean temperatures. It said there was scientific evidence that climate change was making 22 of the 24 indicators worse. For instance, eight of the top 10 years for extreme one-day floods or heavy snowfalls in the United States have occurred since 1990, the report said. In addition heat waves have increased steadily since the end of the 1970s. "For society, increases in temperature are likely to increase heat-related illnesses and deaths, especially in urban areas," said the report, which relied on data from a variety of U.S. and international agencies and sources. (From Reuters, Climate change increases heat waves, floods: EPA) http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE63S38H20100429 From epa.gov: Storms and Flooding Sea level rise also increases the vulnerability of coastal areas to flooding during storms for several reasons. First, a given storm surge from a hurricane or northeaster builds on top of a higher base of water. Considering only this effect, a Report to Congress by FEMA (1991) estimated that existing development in the U.S. Coastal Zone would experience a 36-58 percent increase in annual damages for a 1-foot rise in sea level, and a 102-200 percent increase for a 3-foot rise. Shore erosion also increases vulnerability to storms, by removing the beaches and dunes that would otherwise protect coastal property from storm waves ( FEMA 2000 ). Sea level rise also increases coastal flooding from rainstorms, because low areas drain more slowly as sea level rises. Other impacts of climate change may further enhance or mitigate coastal flooding. Flooding from rainstorms may become worse if higher temperatures lead to increasing rainfall intensity during severe storms. An increase in the intensity of tropical storms would increase flood and wind damages. From Science Daily: Tornados, Flooding May Warn Of Climate Change ScienceDaily (June 4, 2008) — Record-keeping meteorologists at the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration say this year’s tornado season is one of the deadliest in a decade and may be on pace to set a record for the most tornadoes. And flooding in the Midwest has been at 100-year levels this spring. http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/06/080602231312.htm “ There is considerable concern that climate change due to greenhouse gases species increasing will lead to the enhancement of strong, large storms occurrences, such as hurricanes that also spawn tornadoes when they occur. Increased storm strengths also bring flooding events,” he said. Likely Changes Human susceptibility to infections might be further compounded by malnutrition due to climate stress on agriculture and potential alterations in the human immune system caused by increased flux of ultraviolet radiation. From the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: “ Climate Change and Public Health: Health Effects” http://www.cdc.gov/climatechange/effects/default.htm Increased Temperatures Heat exposure has a range of health effects, from mild heat rashes to deadly heat stroke. Heat exposure can also aggravate several chronic diseases, including cardiovascular and respiratory disease. The results can be severe and result in both increased illness and death. Heat also increases ground-level ozone concentrations, causing direct lung injury and increasing the severity of respiratory diseases such as asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Higher temperatures and heat waves increased demand for electricity and thus combustion of fossil fuels, generating airborne particulates and indirectly leading to increased respiratory disease. Analyzing the role of climate in the emergence of human infectious diseases will require interdisciplinary cooperation among physicians, climatologists, biologists, and social scientists. Increased disease surveillance, integrated modeling, and use of geographically based data systems will afford more anticipatory measures by the medical community. Understanding the linkages between climatological and ecological change as determinants of disease emergence and redistribution will ultimately help optimize preventive strategies. ( JAMA . 1995;275:217-223) From MSNBC story: updated 7:36 p.m. ET, Mon., July 31, 2006 CHICAGO - The blowtorch heat that blistered California last week gripped the Midwest on Monday, prompting communities to throw air-conditioned buildings open to the public and endangering millions of people with outdoor jobs — including NFL players in training camp. Temperatures throughout the Midwest and Plains were expected to reach at least 100 degrees. Forecasters said the heat index, a measure of temperature plus humidity, could climb as high as 110 in some places. The National Weather Service issued heat warnings for such cities as Chicago, Cincinnati, Dayton, Ohio, and Tulsa, Okla. (Photo caption: Betty Erma of Chicago wipes her face with a wet towel Monday as she sells cold water to motorists under a train viaduct on the southwest side of Chicago.)
  • Here’s what the EPA says: “ Agriculture is highly sensitive to climate variability and weather extremes, such as droughts, floods and severe storms. … Human activity has already changed atmospheric characteristics such as temperature, rainfall, levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) and ground level ozone. The scientific community expects such trends to continue. While food production may benefit from a warmer climate, the increased potential for droughts, floods and heat waves will pose challenges for farmers. Additionally, the enduring changes in climate, water supply and soil moisture could make it less feasible to continue crop production in certain regions.” (http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/effects/agriculture.html) And here’s what the USDA Economic Research Service has to say: “ Climate change will affect crop and livestock yields worldwide, which will lead to changes in food and fiber consumption, prices of agricultural commodities, and farm incomes. Agriculture is a source of methane and nitrous oxide emissions, two prominent greenhouse gases. Changes in agricultural practices could potentially reduce emissions of these gases. Agriculture also has a potential role to play in reducing the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide through increased sequestration and possibly through provision of biofuels.” ( http://www.ers.usda.gov/briefing/globalclimate/ ) USDA Forest Service, Southern Research Station Headquarters Issue 10 A Natural History of Loblolly Pine The Poster Child for Forest Carbon Research by Kurt Johnson Loblolly pine, though native to the South, doesn’t do well in shade and is not fire resistant. Before European settlement, these characteristics meant that the tree’s extent—where it will live—was much more limited than it is today. Though it occurred across a region ranging from the Coastal Plain through the Piedmont to the gulf coast, loblolly pine was mostly restricted to narrow, wet habitats in low-drainage areas that came to be called “loblollies.” Across the southern half of its range, loblolly was largely excluded due to fire, which allowed the fire-dependent longleaf pine to thrive. In the northern part of its range, loblolly’s extent was reduced due to natural succession toward longlived, shade-tolerant hardwoods. During the 19th and early 20th centuries, except for particularly difficult sites (usually wetlands), most southern forests were cut over, initially to provide pasture and agricultural land. After the Civil War, most of the remaining old-growth forest was cut to supply rapid industrial growth. (From www.srs.fs.usda.gov/.../expforests_natural.htm ) Rising summer temperatures, changes in peak and low stream flow, and reduced winter ice and snow cover can harm native brook trout. In addition, under either emissions scenario the hemlock woolly adelgid (an invasive insect) is poised to threaten hemlocks as far north as the Canadian border by late-century. IMPACTS ON WINTER RECREATION Snow and cold temperatures mean big business for the Green Mountain State. Vermont ski areas provide recreation for residents and visitors along with thousands of jobs, and contribute more than $1.1 billion a year to the state’s economy. But Vermont winters have already changed and, over the course of the century, may look and feel profoundly different. Snowmobiling. Vermont is part of a sixstate network of snowmobile trails totaling 40,500 miles and contributing $3 billion a year to the regional economy. Snowmobiling, like cross-country skiing and snowshoeing, relies almost entirely on natural snowfall. Projected losses in natural snow cover and the impracticality of snowmaking on this vast system mean that Vermont’s snowmobiling season could decline dramatically by late-century. Under the higher-emissions scenario the average season length across Vermont is projected to shrink to roughly 27 days by late-century—a nearly 70 percent decline below recent levels—and to roughly 40 days under the loweremissions scenario. Skiing. Milder winters are expected to shorten the Vermont ski season and, under the higher-emissions scenario, the state’s ski areas may no longer be viable by late-century. Under the lower- emissions scenario many Vermont ski areas are expected to persist and may be in a position to benefit economically due to reduced competition. However, the long-term viability of these resorts may depend on skiers’ willingness to travel greater distances and the resorts’ access to the water needed for substantial increases in snowmaking (which will also increase operational costs). Lake ice. Ice fishing and pond hockey are winter favorites in Vermont. However, global warming will render lake ice cover increasingly thin and shorten its duration. Ice cover duration on Lake Champlain has already declined in recent decades. (From International Institute for Environment and Development: http://www.iied.org/natural-resources/key-issues/biodiversity-and-conservation/impact-climate-change-tourism-caribbean) The impact of climate change on tourism in the Caribbean About this project Downloads and links About this project Background  The Caribbean relies heavily on its natural resources for its economy. Tourism, agriculture and fishing form the Caribbean's main sources of income, making it particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. These nations also suffer from a high level of poverty and low GDP, meaning any steps taken to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change will be further constrained. Climate change impacts that affect tourism in the Caribbean include: • Beach erosion • Saline Intrusion • Droughts, Flashfloods and Landslides • Coral Bleaching • Less productive fisheries and agricultural systems • Changes to biological systems/reduction in biodiversity • Damage to coastal amenities and infrastructure • Reduction in long-haul passengers due to ethical concern/regulatory taxes • Changes in preferences of tourist This project focuses upon Tobago, which is overly reliant on its natural resources and biodiversity for tourism purposes. Sixty per cent of Tobago's population is currently employed in the tourism sector, so any negative changes to the country's natural environment will cause significant damage to the economy and to the lives of the local community. It will build upon the methodology used in a previous IIED project in Namibia which draws upon Natural Resource Accounts (NRA) as well as the work and knowledge of natural resource experts to quantify the economic impacts of climate change.
  • IPCC founded in 1988 by the United Nations Environmental Programme in cooperation with the World Meteorological Organization. “Summary for Policymakers” reviewed by governments & scientists on a consensus basis Goal: Assessing scientific information relevant to: Human-induced climate change. The impacts of human-induced climate change. Options for adaptation and mitigation. The actual work of the IPCC is done by unpaid volunteers – thousands of scientists at universities and research institutes around the world who contribute as authors or reviewers to the completion of the IPCC reports. A large fraction of the relevant scientific community is thus involved in the effort.  Won Nobel Peace Prize in 2007 with former VP Al Gore. Create every few years a “Summary for Policymakers” reviewed by governments & scientists on a consensus basis – including oil-producing giants (Russia, Saudi Arabia, Argentina); awakening giants (India & China); and existing giants (U.S.).
  • Frames provide people a quick and easy way to process information. Hence, people will use the previously mentioned mental filters (a series of is called a schema) to make sense of incoming messages. Irving Goffman, mid-1970s, and Charles Fillmore, first defined framing. Frame elements and scenarios of a hospital: doctors, receptionist, scalpels, orderlies. We think in terms of frames that are physically realized in the neural circuitry of the brain. Fillmore: Every word in every language is defined relative to a frame. Very normal – and thoroughly political. Metaphors – More is up and less is down. He is a warm or cold person. Prices are going through the roof. True in cultures throughout the world. Learned very early.  
  • In other words, the campaign to spread doubt about the human-generated causes of climate change is NOT based on science. Rather, it’s based on PR … and BAD, unethical PR at that.

Transcript

  • 1. Dr. LaRae M. Donnellan, APR, CPRC Professor of Public Relations Florida A&M University (Photo from www.epa.gov/climatechange)
  • 2. Climate Crisis Information
    • How do we know what we know?
    http://www.monkeylog.com/2009/12/02/global-warming-rap-battle-al-gore-vs-lord-monckton/ Al Gore vs. Lord Monckton
  • 3. Getting Info from the Media
    • Agenda-Setting Theory: The media tell us what to think about, not necessarily how to think about it.
    • Gatekeepers of newsworthiness (TIPCUP)
    • Balance
    • Professionals vs. amateurs
    • Echo chamber
    (Idiotsforobama.com)
  • 4. Getting Info from the Media
    • Framing Theory: The media tell us not only what to think about but also how to think about it.
    • “ When the facts don’t fit the frame, the facts get rejected, not the frame.”
    http://crooksandliars.com/david-neiwert/beck-corporate-shill-proclaim-climat Glenn Beck (FOX News) calls energy bill a “watermelon” – thin layer of “green” on the outside; “Communist red” on the inside. (FrameWorks Institute 2005)
  • 5. How Scientists Communicate
    • Scientific process
    • Verifiable results
    • Refereed journals
    • Admit mistakes
    • Probability
      • > 99% = “virtually certain”
      • > 95% = “extremely likely”
      • > 90% = “very likely”
      • > 66% = “likely”
    (www.ouramazingplanet.com)
  • 6. Who Says the GC Crisis is Real?
    • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
    • NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Science, National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration, National Center for Atmospheric Research, American Meteorological Society, Environmental Protection Agency, Union of Concerned Scientists, National Weather Service, World Glacier Monitoring Service, etc.
    • National academies of science from at least 45 countries, including the Vatican
    • Environmental, civic & religious organizations
    • U.S. military
    • People whose lives have already been disrupted by climate change
    Dr. James Hansen, NOAA climate scientist, climateprogress.org/2008/06/page/2/
  • 7. Would You Take This Flight?
    • Climate change, caused primarily by humans, is “very likely” (more than 90% probability of occurring).
  • 8. What Are Scientists Saying?
    • CO2 – 390 ppm & rising
    • Rising temperatures
    (Source: NOAA ; http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/ )
  • 9. What Are Scientists Saying?
    • Arctic sea ice declining
      • 2007 accelerated thaw
      • Northwest & Northeast Passages open
      • Replacing reflective ice with dark ocean
      • January 2011 – Arctic air temperatures 2°-6° C (4°-11° F) above normal, leading to more rapid decline than anticipated
    • Ice sheets shrinking
      • 2003-2008, Greenland lost more than trillion tons – 150-250 cubic kilometers – of ice
      • 2002-2006, Antarctic lost about 152 cubic kilometers of ice
      • Source of fresh water
      • Relatively warmer water
    (From http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/)
  • 10. What Are Scientists Saying?
    • Oceans more acidic
      • More so than anytime in the last 800,000 years
      • Shellfish can’t make thick-enough shells (think DDT)
      • 2009: Pacific oyster industry reported 80% mortality for oyster larvae
      • Coral reefs dying off; barrier against storms
    • Oceans warmer
      • Can’t absorb as much CO2; have been a natural “sink”
      • Low oxygen hard for fish
      • Promote stronger hurricanes & cyclones
    (From: http://www.duke.edu/web/nicholas/bio217/jrc25/PA180142.jpg) (From http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/ & Scientific American)
  • 11. What Are Scientists Saying?
    • Ocean levels rising
      • Rose 17 cm (6.7 inches) in the last century
      • Rate doubled in last decade
      • Maldives, the lowest-lying nation on the planet, fears for its survival
    • Retreating glaciers
      • Himalayas, Alps, Andes & great American West snowpack melting
      • Rising temperatures; less water; more drying of forests, crops
    • Expanding tropics
      • 2°+ north & south since 1980
    (From dailymail.co.uk) (From domino.lancs.ac.uk)
  • 12. What Are Scientists Saying?
    • More drought
      • “ New normal” for Australia
      • Powerful brushfires
    • Forests drying
      • Trees less hardy
      • Longer fire season
      • ½ of U.S. Forest Service budget = extinguishing fires
      • Western forests responsible for 20-40% of U.S. carbon sequestration; may become source, not sink
    • Pests thriving
      • Mountain pine beetle
      • Mosquito & dengue fever
    (From www.msnbcmsn.com/ id/15625626/) (From http://www.sos-arsenic.net/images/mosquit1.jpg) (From worldweatherpost.com)
  • 13. What Are Scientists Saying?
    • Hurricanes & cyclones
      • Stronger & stranger
      • Last ½ decade: 1 st tropical storm to hit Spain; 1 st January tropical cyclone; 2008 – major storm in 5 different months; 2008 Tropical Storm Fay cross Florida 4 times
    • Heat waves
      • 1995 in Chicago, nearly 500 died
      • 2003 in France, 30,000 died
    • Rainfall & floods
      • Total rainfall up 7%
      • Comes as downpours
    (From msnbc.com) (TOP RIGHT: From examiner.com) (TOP LEFT: http://scrapetv.com/News/News%20Pages/usa/Images/hurricane-katrina.jpg)
  • 14. What Are Scientists Saying?
    • Crop loss
      • Global per capita production of grain peaked in 1980s
      • Reductions in wheat, corn & barley yields of about 40 million tons/year
      • Using corn for ethanol – food riots in 37 countries
    • Methane & nitrous oxide
      • Agriculture is a major source
    • Tourism loss
    • Psychological despair
    (From http://www.reuters.com/article/ idUSTRE65B1XE20100613?type=domesticNews) (From http://trendsupdates.com/abundance-no-more-global-food-crisis-as-seen-through-high-food-cost/)
  • 15. Why Are People Still Flying?
    • Why is the “1 in 10 chance of survival” message so compelling?
    • Not framed that way
    • Ill-informed vs. vested interest vs. sociopath?
  • 16. Framing Theory
    • We are told not only what to think about but also how to think about it.
    • Frames are mental (physical) filters that help us make sense of incoming information. They involve scenarios and metaphors.
    • 98% of what we “know” is rooted in our unconscious.
      • George Lakoff, “Don’t Think of an Elephant”
    • “ Gun control” or “gun safety”
    • “ Tax revolt” or “tax relief”
  • 17. PR, not Science
    • Doubt about the climate crisis has been spread by an organized PR campaign, largely financed by the oil and coal industries
      • James Hoggan & Richard Littlemore, “Climate Cover-Up: The Crusade to Deny Global Warming”
    • Arguments based on PR strategies & tactics, not science
    • But should the GCC be real, then:
      • Humans did not cause it
      • It’s too expensive to fix
      • There’s nothing we can do about it
  • 18. Have Deniers Been Successful? (From http://www.gallup.com/poll/126560/Americans-Global-Warming-Concerns-Continue-Drop.aspx?version)
  • 19. Pew Research Says… (http://people-press.org/report/556/global-warming)
  • 20. Partisan Divisions: Pew Polls
      • College-educated partisans: Are humans responsible (2008 Pew poll)?
      • Democrats: 75% yes
      • Republicans: 19% yes
    • Why a difference?
      • How they consume media & which media they consume.
      • Democrats: Better informed about the science.
      • Republicans: Better informed about the controversy.
    Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Sept. 30-Oct. 4, 2009, among 1,500 adults reached on cell phones and landlines.
  • 21. PR Campaign to Promote Doubt
  • 22. Need More Proof?
    • DeSmogBlog.com
    • Dr. John Abraham, University of St. Thomas , Minnesota
    • (http://www.stthomas.edu/engineering/jpabraham/)
    • “ Climate Cover-Up”
    • “ Do the Right Thing”