Sunnyvale Walk the Talk Forum

HOW DO WE “WALK WALKTHE WALK:” MAKINGTHE GBI VISION AREALITY Dena Belzer March 5, 2012

What We ll Talk About We’ll1.1 Implications of the GBI Vision for the Communities2. Game Changers3. How Do We Implement the GBI Vision?

Implications of the GBI for the Communities Photo credit: Grand Boulevard Initiative

Grand Boulevard Initiative 43-mile State Road 82 Daly City to San Jose Parallel transit lines “Coalition of the willing”  19 cities in 2 counties  Federal, state and local governments  Transportation agencies  Business and development community  Environmental and housing advocates

Summary of Growth Scenarios: ProjectedNew Households and Jobs in 2035 300,000 240,264 246,231 250,000 190,395 200,000 200 000 138,543 150,000 107,135 107 135 98,849 100,000 89,270 57,355 45,071 39,147 50,000 ‐ Greenbelt Alliance FOCUS PDAs GBI Baseline GBI Moderate GBI Enhanced Households Jobs These projections are pegged to outdated regional growth forecasts

All Five Scenarios Can Be Accommodated Within the Existing Character of El Camino  Land capacity > amount of land required for infill  Can be achieved with financially feasible p products at a range of densities g20-25 DU/AC – 2+ stories, 25-35 DU/AC – 3-4 stories, 70-85 DU/AC – 6-8 stories,attached townhomes, stacked attached flats over structuredunderground parking townhomes, tuck-under parking/ground floor retail parking

Fiscal Benefits of Infill Development ~ $330 million to $752 million in local tax revenues $800 onsMillio $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $0 Greenbelt Alliance FOCUS PDAs GBI Baseline GBI Moderate GBI Enhanced Property Tax - Housing Property Tax - Commercial Sales Tax from New Household Spending

Conversion of Low-Performing Retail Sites to HigherIntensity Uses Can Provide Increased Revenues

SIMILAR EL CAMINO REAL CONTEXTSunnyvale Example Photo Credit: Google

Game Changers Photo credit: Grand Boulevard Initiative

Game Changer #1: VastlyImproved Transit on El Camino

Rapid Bus has Been Transformational inOther Bay Area Corridors – San Pablo Ave Ave.

Game Changer # 2: Bay Area Employment Growth Trends Support Transit Oriented LocationsSource: Center for the Continuing Study of the California Economy

National Profile of EmploymentNear Transit Transit Zone Capture Rate by Sector Group, 2008 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Source: LEHD 2008, Center for Transit Oriented Development 2010 , p

From 2002-2008 Employment Near TransitIncreased Slightly in Absolute Numbers Change in Total Transit Zone Employment by Sector Group, 2002-2008 15% 10% 5% 0% ‐5% ‐10% ‐15% Source: LEHD 2008, Center for Transit Oriented Development 2010 2008

Game Changer # 3: Changing Demographics Will Provide Greater Demand For Transit Oriented LocationsSource: Center for the Continuing Study of the California Economy

Millenials Are Just Not DrivingAs Much

Boomers Are Starting to Drive Less TooEverybody’s driving less, but Teens are no longer leading the way on driving Source: Transportation Research Board

Game Changer #4: IncreasingGas Prices

Increasing Gas Prices Directly Correlate to Transit Ridership The bigger the “Dot” the greater the increase in rail ridership correlated to increased gas priceshttp://www.theatlanticcities.com/commute/2011/12/how-americans-really-react-to-high-gas-prices/616/

How Do We Implement the GBIVision? Photo credit: Grand Boulevard Initiative

Many Challenges toImplementing the GBI Vision Physical Ph i l Market M k t Regulatory challenges challenges• Small sites • Higher cost of infill • Height/density• Fragmented • Big box often limits opportunities highest and best • Slow, complicated• Visually use use” approvals process unappealing • Weak short-term • High fees environment demand • Ground floor retail/ • Tight credit mixed use requirements i t • Suburban parking standards

Every Community Will Create it’sOwn Approach There is no “one-size-fits-all solution ” one size fits all solution. Think strategically about prioritizing public investments and public funds funds. Look for:  Multiple funding sources sources.  A broad funding base.  Synergies among projects projects.  New partnerships to fill the gap.

Every Local Plan Will Require Different Combinations of Funding and Financing Developer Assessment Tax Bond Fees/ JointProject Grants Districts Increment Financing Exactions Development User FeesTransit Stations and Station Area ImprovementsWest Dublin BART X X X X(Dublin,(Dublin CA)New York Ave Station X X(Washington D.C.)Transit Lines and Corridor InfrastructureAtlanta Beltline X X X(Atlanta, GA)DART Corridor X(Dallas,(Dallas TX)District/Downtown Infrastructure and ImprovementsWhite Flint(Montgomery County, X X XMD)Downtown Stamford X X(Stamford, CT)

What’s on the Cutting Edge of TODInfrastructure Financing? Aurora CO Cleveland OH West Union IAIf these places can be “cutting edge” so can you!

Aurora CO - “Strategic Parking Planand Program Study” Study Projects – Four structured parking j p g garages at strategic locations Tools -  Potential funding sources: Aurora general fund revenues, user fees, parking in-lieu fee, commercial parking stall fee fee, transportation impact fee  Bond financing Lessons Learned -  Think strategically about prioritizing public investments  Look for multiple funding sources and a broad base Source: Denver RTD FasTracks

Cleveland, OH - Greater University Circle Initiative Projects - Reconfiguration of a traffic circle and j g relocation/renovation of two rail stations to support development Tools - Anchor institutions provided:  Convening and visioning  $1 million for upfront $ p planning and design  Support for federal grants L Lessons L Learned: d  Look for partnerships to fill gaps left by traditional funding sources Source : New York Times

West Union IA – District EnergySystem Project – District energy in an historic downtown j gy Tools –  Funding: Grants from the U.S. Dept of Energy, the EPA, & the Iowa Department of Economic p Development  Financing: Municipal bonds L Lessons L Learned – d  Look for synergies among infrastructure projects  Layer funding sources

Wrapping UP Photo credit: Grand Boulevard Initiative

Converging Factors Will AllSupport GBI1.1 Changing community attitudes2. Incremental physical change3.3 Better fiscal health4. Strategic public investments5.5 Future population and employment growth F t l ti d l t th trends6. Global trends6 Gl b l t d7. Innovative community and regional thinking about i l b t implementation! t ti !

For Further InformationContact:dbelzer@strategiceconomics.comdbelzer@strategiceconomics comwww.strategiceconomics.com t t i i

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