Earth Overshoot• We now require the equivalent of 1.4 planets to support our lifestyles.• The result is that our supply of natural resources, such as trees and fish, continues to shrink, while waste, primarily carbon dioxide, accumulates.
Global Context for the Coming DecadesUN’s most moderatescenario
Context for the Future of Business: What % of World GDP need to be invested to turn the curve?UN’s most moderatescenario
What is your ecological footprint?-Diet and food-Trash-Housing-Travel and commute
Climate Change: Human Impact on the Atmosphere• 270 Billion tons of carbon added since 19th century• Since 1750, greenhouse gases in atmosphere increased substantially: CO2 > 31% N20 > 151% CH4 > 17%• Prior to 1750, CO2 levels at 280 ppm• CO2 levels now 380 ppm; highest level in 400,000 years
Global Temperature Increasing•Rise in CO2 levels closely follows rise in temperature: • Global temperatures rose 1°F in past 100 yrs, most in last 30 yrs • 9 of 10 hottest years on record occurred in the last decade.•Night time daily minimum temps increasing 2x faster than daytime maximum temperatures.•Rate of warming much greater than in any of past 9 centuries.
Ice Caps & Glaciers Receding35% loss inlast 8 years
Snowmelt Is Declining Warmer winters have already caused: •Reduced snow pack •Earlier snow melt •Decreased spring runoff by 10%Major effects on watersupply and Delta systemin California
Sea Levels Rising Global sea levels rose 4-8” over the past 100 years, a rate 3 times faster than occurred over the past 3000 years.Tourists wading across San 10.00Marcos Plaza in Venice due to 9.80 9.60rising waters of Adriatic Sea 9.40 MSL (Feet) 9.20 9.00 8.80Sea levels in CA increased 8.60 8.407” since 1850 8.20 8.00 1850 1865 1880 1895 1910 1925 1940 1955 1970 1985 2000 Year
Changes in Nature Habitats are shifting, affecting wildlife food supplies and migration patternsAntarctic Penguin populationshave shrunk 33 % in 25 years. Bleaching of coral reefs due to rising sea temperatures - have already lost 60% of tropical corals
Economic Impacts Extreme Weather EventsAverage annual economiclosses per decade haveincreased 12x since 1950:from $4 billion - $49 BBSwiss Re estimates globaleconomy could be bankruptby 2065 if action is nottaken
Predicted California Impacts• Temperature increase of 3.0 – 10.4 °F• 30-90% loss in Sierra snow pack• 6-30 inches of Sea level rise• Up to 100 more days/yr of temps > 90 °F in major urban areas – 2-10 times as many heat-related deaths• 25-35% increase in days meteorologically conducive to ozone formation• Up to 50% increase in number critically dry years• 3- 20% increase in electricity demand• 10-35% increase in the risk of large fires• Significant impacts to Agriculture
California GHG Reduction Goals AB 32: Climate Solutions Act of 2006• 2010: GHG emissions at 2000 levels• 2020: GHG emissions to 1990 levels• 2050: GHG emissions to 80% below 1990 levels
1. Efficiency First• Invest in wide spread energy and water efficiency to reduce demand. – Retrofit existing buildings – Maximize water efficiency homes and businesses – Mandate green building standards – Improve efficiency of pumping operations for water and wastewater
Goal: Retrofit homes & businesses to highestpossible efficiency standard
3. Power Up Locally• Invest in renewable energy sources and jobs. – Conduct a phased rollout of local renewable energy sources – Replace natural gas and propane with electric and solar heat sources – Incentivize small-scale solar, wind, and hydro installations
4. Conserve and Capture• Protect our forests and farmland, sequester carbon, and convert waste into energy. – Encourage, incentivize, and mandate carbon sequestration practices – Generate energy from agricultural solid waste – Generate energy from bio gas – Improve operational efficiency – Use conservation easements to protect agriculture and forest land – Implement the Countys Integrated Waste Management Plan, and collect landfill bio gas
AB 32: California Benefits• Public health benefits of improved air quality alone will amount to approximately $2.2 billion• Additional benefits by 2020 include: – An estimated 400 premature deaths statewide will be avoided – Almost 11,000 incidences of asthma and lower respiratory symptoms will be avoided – 67,000 work loss days will be avoided – Reduced risks of coronary heart disease, diabetes, hypertension and obesity
A Role for EveryoneLocal Government ∆ Business Community
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New Urbanism- City PlanningGiving Physical Shape to CommunityOne urban design movement calledNew Urbanism is affecting the wayour cities and towns are built.
What’s Old in New UrbanismSince America was founded, many of ourbest-loved towns and cities have beencarefully planned.
Giving Physical Shape to CommunityNew urbanist developments arewalkable neighborhoods, ratherthan large, single-use places withstreets hostile to pedestrians.
Giving Physical Shape to CommunityNew Urbanism provides a range ofhousing choices, from apartmentsover storefronts to single-familyhomes with yards.
The Disposable CityFor many years older American citieswere neglected and deteriorating. Newhome buyers were almost exclusivelyinterested in living on the urban fringe.
Response to a ProblemSince World War II, cities have been spreading ever-outward. Strip malls,parking lots, highways, and housing tracts have sprawled over the landscape.
Cities Getting With the ProgramNevertheless, many young childless households and older empty nesters appreciate theadvantages of urban living. Up until recently when the housing market tanked - urbanreinvestment was paying off – and some older cities were among America’s hottest realestate markets.
Where it’s neededNew Urbanism can be small projects on individual blocks, like the block on8th and Pearl in Boulder, Colorado.
Where it’s neededIt can also apply to redeveloped neighborhoods like Park DuValle in Louisville, Kentucky.
Other SuccessesThe U.S. Department of Housingand Urban Development has takenNew Urbanism to heart with its HOPEVI program. HOPE VI replaces aging,alienating housing projects withtownhouses, single-family homes,and apartments on walkable,comfortable street grids.
Where it may or may not be needed?New Urbanism includes greenfield projects, also called traditional neighborhooddevelopments (TNDs). Marylands Kentlands and Lakelands are among the best-known.
Early EffortsThe first new urbanist town to get built from theground up was Seaside, on the Florida coast.
Early EffortsBetween 1985 and 1993, several morelarge-scale projects were undertaken inAmerica’s fast-growing suburbs.Kentlands and Laguna West were two ofthe best-known and most ambitious efforts. Laguna West, CA Kentlands, MD
Where it’s neededNew Urbanists also take part in regional planning. In New Jersey, a statewideplan has focused public investment into existing centers, and a statewide designguideline is helping keep the state’s small towns vibrant.
The RegionThe region is the overall context for allplanning. That means planning must oftencross traditional jurisdictional lines inorder to create a healthy region.
The RegionTowns and cities within aregion should have clearboundaries, contributing toa sense of place. The landbetween towns should bepreserved as open space—wilderness or farm-land.These edges are as importantas the centers to the successof New Urbanism.
The RegionWilderness, farmland, villages, town edges, town centers, city neighborhoods, and citycenters each have their own building densities, street sizes, and appropriate mixtures ofretail, residential, and other functions.
The NeighborhoodThe optimal size of a neighborhood isa quarter-mile from center to edge.For most people, a quarter mile is afive-minute walk. For aneighborhood to feel walkable, manydaily needs should be supplied withinthis five-minute walk. That includesnot only homes, but stores,workplaces, schools, houses ofworship, and recreational areas.
The NeighborhoodPeople within a quarter-mile radius will walk to amajor transit stop. Those who live further from a transitnode are less likely to bother with the train or bus.
The Block, Street, and BuildingNew urbanist streets usebuildings to provide a con-sistent and understandableedge and streets are safe,comfortable, interestingplaces for people to walkand meet.Buildings open ontosidewalks, rather thanparking lots. Windows anddoors facing the sidewalkmake streets safer, and moreinteresting, for everyone.
Progress in the SuburbsIn new suburban developments, new urbanistsare including an ever-wider range ofarchitectural styles. While many new urbanistdevelopments have been built with colonial-stylearchitecture, recent projects includeneighborhoods of contemporary homes andadobe.
Other SuccessesMall redevelopment: Some mallsbuilt in the 1960s, 70s, and even 80sare underutilized or already failing incities and older suburbs. Some arebeing converted into realneighborhoods.
Greening California Communities: Sustainability North and South
“Planning is best done in advance” - Anonymous
Built EnvironmentTopics in the Built Environment: • Community Development • Design • Energy and Green Building • Mineral Resources • Housing • Transportation • Noise • Public Facilities and Services • Planning Areas
Greening our Built Environment• Prevent sprawl – reduce outlying densities• Require mixed-use in commercial areas• Housing Overlay Designation – Focus affordable & workforce housing at infill sites near jobs, transit & services• Require Green Building• Retrofit existing buildings
Adapting to Climate Change:1 Meter Sea Level Rise in Marin?
GREENING Transportation How will results be achieved?• Reduce Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT)• Reduce Single Occupancy Automobile Trips• Support regional rail initiatives, such as SMART
GREENING Transportation• Prioritize funding for projects that reduce fossil-fuel use and single-occupancy auto trips• Provide incentives for using public transit, carpools, car sharing, bicycles, walking, etc• Reduce parking requirements for projects located near transit or thru trip reduction programs
The Redevelopment Plan calls for:• nearly 3,400 new homes (35% of which will be affordable)• 1.2 million square feet of new office, hotel, and commercial space and 60,000 square feet of retail• Buildings to be spaced apart to provide sunlight to proposed new plazas, parks, and widened sidewalks
Santa Monica, a “Sustainable City” A sustainable city meets its currenteconomic, environmental and social needs without compromising the ability of future generations to do the same.
Santa Monica - Background Population: 90,000Land Area: 8.3 sq. mi. (13.4 sq. km.)Economy: Tourism, Entertainment and High Tech Industries Development: Primarily Infill Development and Remodels
Sonoma Mountain Village N. America’s Proposed 1 Planet Community• 200.1 Acres• 1892 Housing Units• 600,000 Sq. Ft. Commercial
Canada Montreal UK London UK USA Brighton Seattle China Portugal GuangzhouUSA Lisbon PanyuRohnert Park U.A.E. USA Abu Washington DC Dhabi South Africa Australia Durbin Adelaide
1.Zero Carbon2.Zero Waste 3. Sustainable Transport 4. Local & Sustainable Materials 5. Local and Sustainable Food 6. Sustainable Water 7. Natural Habitats and Wildlife 8. Culture and Heritage 9. Equity and Fair Trade10. Health and Happiness
LOCAL & SUSTAINABLE MATERIALS• Manufacture at least 20% of materials on-site• Buy and additional 40% of materials within 500 miles – Create Standard Specifications – Healthy Materials Standard – Track Embodied Carbon in Materials and Activities
Codding Steel Frame Technologies• On site manufacturing facility• Local jobs• Recycled steel – 8 recycled cars or 40 trees• Solar powered
VegetatedBio-Swale Portland Stormwater Management Manual Conservation Design Forum Inc.
Closing the Loop• Rainwater harvesting and recycling• Greywater harvesting and recycling Michelle Kaufman MKLotus House
Local GovernmentGreen Building Ordinances in California
California Communities with EnactedMandatory Green Building OrdinancesExample Effective Date Example Effective DateAlbany July 2007 Rohnert Park July 2007Brisbane January 2008 San Francisco August 2008Calabasas February 2004 San Jose Ord. PendingCotati January 2008 San Rafael August 2007Culver City March 2008 San Mateo (Co.) March 2008Livermore January 2008 Santa Barbara March 2008Long Beach Ord. Pending Santa Cruz January 2007Los Altos December 2007 Santa Monica May 2008Los Angeles May 2008 Santa Rosa June 2008Novato October 2005 Sebastopol March 2005Palm Desert February 2007 Marin (Co.) June 2008Palo Alto July 2008 Windsor June 2007Pasadena May 2008 West Hollywood October 2007Pleasanton January 2003
Drought – or is the climate changing?• Australia, China, Argentina – all have serious droughts• Australia, the driest inhabited continent on earth may be permanently going from arid sub-tropical to desertification• First to see decadal drought – South is in an unprecedented 12-year drought – Murray-Darling river system now fails to reach the sea 40% of the time – Harvests have fallen sharply
Melbourne• Electricity Substation Explosion: – Half million homes and businesses were blacked out – Patients turned away from hospitals – Trees: dropping leaves – Residents at nursing homes: putting clothes in freezer