IDC EspañaTop 10 Predictions 2012Compitiendo por el futuro en un mercadocada vez más complejoCentro Innovación BBVA, Madri...
Agenda Introducción   Predicciones 2012   Conclusiones© IDC                                     Dec-11   2
Revisión de las predicciones de 2011Predicción             Mensaje                Métrica                           Aciert...
Revisión de las predicciones de 2011Predicción      Mensaje                     Métrica                         AciertoSoc...
Agenda Introducción   Predicciones 2012   Conclusiones© IDC                                     Dec-11   5
The Essential Equation: Costs Have to be Reduced  While Expanding Market Relevance and Operational  Excellence            ...
The Old "Inside-Out" Model Gives Wayto the "Outside-In"                                 Tablets            POP            ...
Shifting demand patterns means aBroader Context for the Telco CIO                                             T          T...
Balance of power shifting to theDemand Side:    HOUSEHOLDS              INDIVIDUALS                BUSINESSESDomestic     ...
Spending by Users on Telecom    Services by Country                           Turkey                                      ...
European Telecom Connectivity Market in Transition:        What’s up and what’s not!        WE Markets in Decline         ...
Fixed and Mobile Spending per Capita                 (2011)                                                               ...
Western Europe Client Devices Forecast shows shift to smartphones as new dominant platform                                ...
The need for Unified communicationsin the workplace                  Security© IDC                                 Dec-11 ...
With all of the digital components routesto Market become critical© IDC                                       Dec-11   15
Key video trends drive consumerchoice             Digitization                                  ?       High definition   ...
The ‘love/hate’ triangle: partners and competitorsDevice brand and service          Mobile operators                      ...
The Telco Advantage in the cloud Ecosystem for business customers        Design                 Consulting                ...
Telcos are One of the PossibleDeliverers of the Final Service          MNC          SME        Consumer         Devices© I...
Third Platform for Industry Growth                                             Social   Big Data/                         ...
Agenda    Introducción   Predicciones 2012   Conclusiones© IDC                                        Dec-11   21
La recuperación tendrá que esperar             ¿Qué quiere ser europa?         Escenario 1:            Escenario 2:       ...
... Con riesgo de recesión               Índice R (Recesión)   2007     2008       2009          2010         2011        ...
Mercado TIC en perspectiva8%4%                                                       TI                                   ...
La composicón del mercado                    Software                                    Software                         ...
Zoom en el hardware                        Client system                                           Client system          ...
Zoom en ”Client systems”                                                                           Tablets & eReaders     ...
2012: Salto digital de los clientes…                 LBS                 Realidad aumentadaUsabilidad                     ...
2012: punto de no retorno de …   + Redes sociales   + Adopción de Dispositivos   + Barrera personal/profesional           ...
Agenda    Introducción   Predicciones 2012   Conclusiones© IDC                                        Dec-11   30
4- Social Business – Dejando atrás la fase de experimentación© IDC                                         Dec-11
4- Social Business – Dejando atrás la fase  de experimentación                                                 Nuevos     ...
5-Internet of Things – De la promesa a una realidad conectada© IDC                                     Dec-11
5-Internet of Things – De la promesa a una realidad conectada             Personas con             sensores               ...
6-Big Data – La disrupción llega a la toma de decisiones© IDC                                    Dec-11
6-Big Data – La disrupción llega a la toma de decisiones              No                     Sí               Flujo contin...
Agenda    Introducción   Predicciones 2012   Conclusiones© IDC                                        Dec-11   37
7-Las tecnologías inteligentes seránverticales© IDC                                  Dec-11
7-Las tecnologías inteligentes seránverticales                                 #3 Vijay Govindarajan                      ...
8-Cloud redefinirá la cadena de valor dela industria TIC An innovation that is disruptive allows a whole   new population ...
8-Cloud redefinirá la cadena de valor de  la industria TIC                                                 Outsourced Publ...
8-Cloud redefinirá la cadena de valor dela industria TIC                                   #2 W. Chan Kim and             ...
9-Liderazgo tecnológico para latransformación en tiempos complejos© IDC                                 Dec-11
9-Liderazgo tecnológico para latransformación en tiempos complejos© IDC                                 Dec-11
9-Liderazgo tecnológico para latransformación en tiempos complejos© IDC                                 Dec-11
9-Liderazgo tecnológico para latransformación en tiempos complejos                                        2010            ...
9-Liderazgo tecnológico para latransformación en tiempos complejos                           Grupo    CIO                 ...
Agenda    Introducción   Predicciones 2012   Conclusiones© IDC                                        Dec-11   48
4 Disruptive Forces Will Drive 2012 Growth © IDC                                       Dec-11
But They Are Connected to Each Other                                        The Third Platform for                        ...
2012 Will Be About Competing for 2020By 2020, when the ICT industryreaches $5 trillion — $1.7trillion larger than it is to...
Emerging Markets Impact Is GrowingEmerging markets will account for 28%of global IT spending in 2012     14% growth over 2...
In 2012, It Is Vital to Join the "Lead Pack"2012 will be “like” 2011, but very different: • Mobile devices will have won d...
Agenda    Introducción   Predicciones 2012   Conclusiones© IDC                                        Dec-11   54
© IDC   Dec-11   55
Las cosas están cambiando© IDC                       Dec-11   56
The Asia/Pacific IT Markets    Priority Geographies            Emerging                                                   ...
Este puede ser el momento más fascinante para estar     en esta industria.                   ¡Aprovechémoslo! Copyright ID...
Sí, lo es…                   Big Data             Enterprise MobileNext               Consumerization                Socia...
Ghandi decía que no quería seguidores, sino líderes.        IDC os puede ayudar a         liderar vuestro futuro© IDC     ...
Assess                                  Prepare                                    Execute Leverage IDC’s local and global...
La oferta de        IDC es muy amplia,        déjanos que te la        expliquemos con        detalle!© IDC               ...
Feliz Navidad               y        Próspero Año 2012© IDC                       Dec-11   63
#prediccionesIDC© IDC                      Dec-11
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IDC España Predictions 2012

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IDC España Predictions 2012

  1. 1. IDC EspañaTop 10 Predictions 2012Compitiendo por el futuro en un mercadocada vez más complejoCentro Innovación BBVA, Madrid14 de diciembre de 2011 #prediccionesIDCCopyright IDC. Reproduction is forbidden unless authorized. All rights reserved.
  2. 2. Agenda Introducción Predicciones 2012 Conclusiones© IDC Dec-11 2
  3. 3. Revisión de las predicciones de 2011Predicción Mensaje Métrica AciertoLa incertidumbre se IDC pronosticó un TIC crecerán -1,5%, las TI el -vuelve a instalar en crecimiento plano 3,5%España en 2011 Chief Innovation vs Principios 2011, 60% CIOsCIO vs CIO Intelligence vs criterio inversión max valor y Information Officer min riesgo, finales un 68%Vuelta a las raíces Reinvención de la HP - PSG, Nokia-Microsoft, oferta para crear New Fujitsu, Google-Motorola, estrategias de valor etc.La demanda de Tecnología de En 2011, 3 millones más detecnología consumo consumo, media y conexiones móviles a interneten eclosión contenidos frente a 1 millón desde el PCEclosión y guerra de TIC Prosumer vs Smartphones & tables hanlos dispositivos de TIC crecido un 22% en Españaconsumo Consumerization © IDC Dec-11 3
  4. 4. Revisión de las predicciones de 2011Predicción Mensaje Métrica AciertoSocial Tecnologías para la El 14,7% de las empresasBusiness coge productividad del puesto españolas tienen implantadasvelocidad de trabajo soluciones social businessExpansión del Mayor presión en la La información ha crecido másUniverso gestión de la información de un 50% en EspañaDigitalLa batalla de La Nube se consolida - Más del 15% de las empresasla Nube comienza la adopción españolas ya utilizan Cloud Computing en 2011Internet - Del bajo coste y la El negocio B2B y B2C haeCommerce desintermediación a crecido un 24%. +2 Millones propuestas de valor de usuarios redes sociales.El nuevo rol de Millones de conexiones y +2 Millones de líneas M2M enla red redefinición del operador España en 2011 © IDC Dec-11 4
  5. 5. Agenda Introducción Predicciones 2012 Conclusiones© IDC Dec-11 5
  6. 6. The Essential Equation: Costs Have to be Reduced While Expanding Market Relevance and Operational Excellence INDUSTRY Revenue BASED Infrastructure UC and collaboration rationalisation NETWORKand lower cost of BASED delivery Telecom market Increase portfolio and service flexibility Infrastructure 2000 2015 © IDC Dec-11 6
  7. 7. The Old "Inside-Out" Model Gives Wayto the "Outside-In" Tablets POP PCs CPE NetbooksSmartmetres Televisions People machine© IDC Dec-11 7
  8. 8. Shifting demand patterns means aBroader Context for the Telco CIO T Tablet Network Infrastructure E Mobile Own Datacentre L IT C TVs Infrastructure O Third-Party PCs Infrastructure and Services Smart Metres© IDC Dec-11 8
  9. 9. Balance of power shifting to theDemand Side: HOUSEHOLDS INDIVIDUALS BUSINESSESDomestic Lifestyle individual: CIO opening uphousehold: preferred device(s), digital platform:balancing household anywhere access balancing the needmembers demands, Brand for security andbudget, process with theentertainment, consumerisation ofeducation devices, applicationsTension with egov and user behaviour THINGS vehicles, buildings, meters … Embedding in process verticals© IDC Dec-11 9
  10. 10. Spending by Users on Telecom Services by Country Turkey Germany$ Billions $ Billions CAGR CAGR 16 60 1% -2% 14 50 12 40 10 Mobile Data Mobile Data Mobile Voice Mobile Voice 8 Fixed Data Spain 30 Fixed Data 6 Fixed Voice Fixed Voice 20 4 35 CAGR 2 30 -1% 10 0 25 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Mobile Data 20 Mobile Voice Russia 15 Fixed Data Fixed Voice Sweden$ Billions $ Billions CAGR 10 CAGR 8 40 2% 5 -1% 35 7 0 6 30 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 25 5 Mobile Data Mobile Data Mobile Voice Mobile Voice 20 4 Fixed Data Fixed Data Fixed Voice 3 Fixed Voice 15 10 2 5 1 0 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Source: WW Telecom Services Database, 1H11 © IDC Dec-11 10
  11. 11. European Telecom Connectivity Market in Transition: What’s up and what’s not! WE Markets in Decline WE Markets Growing$ Billions $ Billions 250 120 200 100 80 150 60 100 40 50 20 0 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 TDM Voice Other Fixed Data Ethernet Mobile Data Mobile Messaging Mobile Voice IP VPN BroadbandSource: WE Telecom Services Database, 3Q11 © IDC Dec-11 11
  12. 12. Fixed and Mobile Spending per Capita (2011) AU CH CA NOFixed Spending per Capita SG US JP DK DE GB FR AE IT ES BR FI TW KW KR CN Source: WW Telecom Services Database, 1H11 IN Mobile Spending per Capita © IDC Dec-11 12
  13. 13. Western Europe Client Devices Forecast shows shift to smartphones as new dominant platform Western Europe Client Devices Forecast 400 350 300 250 M Units 200 150 100 50 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Desktop Notebook Mini Notebook Media Tablet Feature Phone Smartphone Sources: IDC EMEA PC Tracker Forecast Update Q2 2011 , IDC EMEA Media Tablet and eReader Forecast - Q2 2011, Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker - 2011 Q2 - Forecast © IDC Dec-11
  14. 14. The need for Unified communicationsin the workplace Security© IDC Dec-11 14
  15. 15. With all of the digital components routesto Market become critical© IDC Dec-11 15
  16. 16. Key video trends drive consumerchoice Digitization ? High definition On demand Multiscreen Multiplay Connected TV Multiplatform competition Plethora of choices allows personalized experience, but also causes confusion and inconvenience = opportunity for operators!© IDC Dec-11 16
  17. 17. The ‘love/hate’ triangle: partners and competitorsDevice brand and service Mobile operators Established brands and freebrand contend with the Control over network performance service model trumpoperator brand eg: Apple, Some control over the user experience operators’ own brands andRIM (Blackberry) Subsidises and sells mobile handsets paid service model Billing and customer care relationship Purchasing power constrains Can make sure that mobile vendors’ freedom over internet users see operators’ handset features, branding brands and services first Extending device brands to internet services Eg: Apple (iTunes), Nokia (Ovi) Device vendors Internet service brands Control over device features Established user base and brand loyalty Control over out-of-box software/content Established systems & processes Some control over the user experience Expertise in media-based models Brand loyalty Extending service brands to devices Eg: Google (Android), Microsoft (Windows Live) © IDC Dec-11 17
  18. 18. The Telco Advantage in the cloud Ecosystem for business customers Design Consulting Integration Network Build Equipment equipment Traditional IT service providers pure-play positioning Outsourcing Managed Services More advanced telecom business provisioning Run Maintenance Traffic Basic telecom business positioning Access Hosting/ Desktop/ Business Business Voice Data LAN WAN Data- Mobile Apps Process centre Communication services IT/business services© IDC Dec-11 18
  19. 19. Telcos are One of the PossibleDeliverers of the Final Service MNC SME Consumer Devices© IDC Dec-11 19
  20. 20. Third Platform for Industry Growth Social Big Data/ Business Analytics Trillions of “Things” Mobile Broadband Mobile Cloud Devices Services & Apps Billions Millions of Users of Apps 2011 LAN/ Client- Internet Server Hundreds of Millions PC Tens of Thousands of Users of Apps 1986 Millions Thousands of Users of Apps© IDC Dec-11
  21. 21. Agenda Introducción Predicciones 2012 Conclusiones© IDC Dec-11 21
  22. 22. La recuperación tendrá que esperar ¿Qué quiere ser europa? Escenario 1: Escenario 2: Mayor Integración Ruptura del Euro© IDC Dec-11
  23. 23. ... Con riesgo de recesión Índice R (Recesión) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Fuente: Google insigth© IDC Dec-11
  24. 24. Mercado TIC en perspectiva8%4% TI TIC0% 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 C-4%-8% © IDC Dec-11
  25. 25. La composicón del mercado Software Software IT Services IT Services Hardware Hardware 2012 2011 Telecom services Telecom services >50% -10% a -50% 0% a -10% 0% a 10% 10% a 50 % <50%© IDC Dec-11
  26. 26. Zoom en el hardware Client system Client system 2012 2011 Storage Storage Server Server system system Network Network equipment equipment Periphrals Periphrals & add ons & add ons >50% -10% a -50% 0% a -10% 0% a 10% 10% a 50 % <50%© IDC Dec-11
  27. 27. Zoom en ”Client systems” Tablets & eReaders Tablets & eReaders Personal computer Personal computer 2012 2011 Smartphones Smartphones >50% -10% a -50% 0% a -10% 0% a 10% 10% a 50 % <50%© IDC Dec-11
  28. 28. 2012: Salto digital de los clientes… LBS Realidad aumentadaUsabilidad Nueva era de Medios de pago Multitouch Proliferación dispositivos App. Móviles Reconocimiento voz servicios de Servicios cloud B.A. Móvilmovimiento Patrones consumo © IDC Dec-11
  29. 29. 2012: punto de no retorno de … + Redes sociales + Adopción de Dispositivos + Barrera personal/profesional •Infraestructura: Ruptura ciclo de vida •Operaciones: Complejidad del soporte •Estrategia: Mitigación de riesgos © IDC Dec-11
  30. 30. Agenda Introducción Predicciones 2012 Conclusiones© IDC Dec-11 30
  31. 31. 4- Social Business – Dejando atrás la fase de experimentación© IDC Dec-11
  32. 32. 4- Social Business – Dejando atrás la fase de experimentación Nuevos modelos de negocio Consistencia CulturaCrece lamadurez en Las personasSocial son el centroBusiness Gestión Conocimiento © IDC Dec-11
  33. 33. 5-Internet of Things – De la promesa a una realidad conectada© IDC Dec-11
  34. 34. 5-Internet of Things – De la promesa a una realidad conectada Personas con sensores Nuevos modelos de Internet of negocio M2M: el Things pegamento e-car e-health Smart grids Dispositivos inteligentes© IDC Dec-11
  35. 35. 6-Big Data – La disrupción llega a la toma de decisiones© IDC Dec-11
  36. 36. 6-Big Data – La disrupción llega a la toma de decisiones No Sí Flujo continuo de datos© IDC Dec-11
  37. 37. Agenda Introducción Predicciones 2012 Conclusiones© IDC Dec-11 37
  38. 38. 7-Las tecnologías inteligentes seránverticales© IDC Dec-11
  39. 39. 7-Las tecnologías inteligentes seránverticales #3 Vijay Govindarajan “Reverse Innovation”© IDC Dec-11
  40. 40. 8-Cloud redefinirá la cadena de valor dela industria TIC An innovation that is disruptive allows a whole new population of consumers access to a product or service that was historically only accessible to consumers with a lot of money or a lot of skill. Characteristics of disruptive businesses, at least in their initial stages, can include: lower gross margins, smaller target markets, and simpler products and services that may not appear as attractive as existing solutions when compared against traditional performance metrics. #1 Clayton Christensen “Disruptive Innovation”© IDC Dec-11
  41. 41. 8-Cloud redefinirá la cadena de valor de la industria TIC Outsourced Public Cloud Optimization Low “Convergence” of Greater Integration Private to Public Across Public Digital Cloud Services” Services Supply Service Delivery Key to Market Supply Chain Chain Elements InflexionPublic Partnership Business Greater Integration (Private to Public) Zero- Across CloudService Defect, Zero-Defect, Enablers TypesDelivery Carrier Carrier-Class, toMaturity Class, Automated Hybrid Automated Service Market Delivery Delivery Creation Service Delivery Supply Chain Model EcosystemPrivate Greater Integration Across Private Digital Services Supply Chain Service Low Elements Delivery Model Key 2010 2020 SaaS (Operations) Outsourced Private Cloud IaaS (Operations) PaaS Transformation and Optimization (Development) TaaS (Testing) © IDC Dec-11
  42. 42. 8-Cloud redefinirá la cadena de valor dela industria TIC #2 W. Chan Kim and Renée Mauborgne “Blue Ocean Strategy”© IDC Dec-11
  43. 43. 9-Liderazgo tecnológico para latransformación en tiempos complejos© IDC Dec-11
  44. 44. 9-Liderazgo tecnológico para latransformación en tiempos complejos© IDC Dec-11
  45. 45. 9-Liderazgo tecnológico para latransformación en tiempos complejos© IDC Dec-11
  46. 46. 9-Liderazgo tecnológico para latransformación en tiempos complejos 2010 17 meses 2011 19 meses 15% 1.8 Conversión Meses Interacción Digital 42% 3.1 Exploración Conversión Meses 22,5% 4.1 Contacto/SQL = 7% Conversión Meses 31,5% Evaluación 3.5 Conversión Meses 50% 5.3 SQL/WIN = 22% Conversión Meses Compra 44% 1.3 Interacción Conversión Meses Personal© IDC Dec-11
  47. 47. 9-Liderazgo tecnológico para latransformación en tiempos complejos Grupo CIO Decisión 90’s ActualidadFuentes Fuerza Fuentes FuerzaIndependientes Comercial Independientes Comercial© IDC Dec-11
  48. 48. Agenda Introducción Predicciones 2012 Conclusiones© IDC Dec-11 48
  49. 49. 4 Disruptive Forces Will Drive 2012 Growth © IDC Dec-11
  50. 50. But They Are Connected to Each Other The Third Platform for IT Industry Growth & Innovation© IDC Copyright 2011 IDC. Reproduction is forbidden unless authorized. All rights Dec-11 reserved.
  51. 51. 2012 Will Be About Competing for 2020By 2020, when the ICT industryreaches $5 trillion — $1.7trillion larger than it is today —at least 80% of the industrysgrowth will driven 3rd Platformtechnologies and solutions. In 2012, battles to lead the ICT marketplace of 2020 will start to be won and lost.© IDC Copyright 2011 IDC. Reproduction is forbidden unless authorized. All rights Dec-11 reserved.
  52. 52. Emerging Markets Impact Is GrowingEmerging markets will account for 28%of global IT spending in 2012 14% growth over 2011 53% of all 2012 IT spending growthChina will pass Japan in IT spending With 28% of emerging markets spend, and 2012 growth of almost 20% Emerging markets products and vendors will drive into developed markets IDC© 2011 IDC Dec-11 6
  53. 53. In 2012, It Is Vital to Join the "Lead Pack"2012 will be “like” 2011, but very different: • Mobile devices will have won decisively • Cloud platform battles will be in full force • Social technologies will be a “must have” • Big Data will be next essential capability • Vertical competency will be at the core of next-generation solutions • Emerging markets are already the new center of growth, driving new design points • New players will no longer be “disruptors” Requires greater • Incumbents will face “crossroads” moments urgency, to jump aboard the third platform, and join the “lead packs” IDC © 2011 IDC Dec-11 15
  54. 54. Agenda Introducción Predicciones 2012 Conclusiones© IDC Dec-11 54
  55. 55. © IDC Dec-11 55
  56. 56. Las cosas están cambiando© IDC Dec-11 56
  57. 57. The Asia/Pacific IT Markets Priority Geographies Emerging GrowthMarket Thai: $6.6B 9.4% Mal: $6.6BGrowth 9.1% HK: $7B 8% NZ: $4.2B 6.2% Tai: $6.8B Advanced 6.1% Market Size © IDC Source: IDC vQ3 2010 APJ Blackbook, Nov 2010 (All data for 2011 in US$, 2011 YoY) Dec-11
  58. 58. Este puede ser el momento más fascinante para estar en esta industria. ¡Aprovechémoslo! Copyright IDC. Reproduction is forbidden unless authorized. All rights reserved.
  59. 59. Sí, lo es… Big Data Enterprise MobileNext Consumerization Social Business Cloud Computing Adoption Trends LATAM APAC Oriente Medio Europa del Este Esto te hace responsable de detectar cada oportunidad, de liderar tu futuro.© IDC Dec-11
  60. 60. Ghandi decía que no quería seguidores, sino líderes. IDC os puede ayudar a liderar vuestro futuro© IDC Dec-11
  61. 61. Assess Prepare Execute Leverage IDC’s local and global Leverage IDC’s market research and local Leverage IDC’s brand and market resources to help you better assess expertise to ensure your marketing is presence to enhance relationships by your local market. For example: locally relevant and your sales teams can delivering value and resources in “sales stand above their competitors. neutral” environments. We can help you prioritize your target markets with local data & guidance: We can increase industry and solution • Industry Workshops/Roundtables • by Industry knowledge of your field sales force • Account-specific IT road-mapping • by Geography • Industry Training Workshops • Customized account benchmarking • by Technology • Bulletproofing sessions for messaging activities • Installed Base, Growth, Forecasts • Understand KPI of influencers • Whitepapers/Thought-leadership content We can help you create a customized Our analysts have access that can help • Industry/geography specific case local TAM you create deeper understanding of key studies clients. Our strategic account profiling • Lead generation activities We can help you understand the competitive positioning of solutions can get deep into tier one accounts • Business issues We can help with local clustering and • Strategic initiatives segmentation assessments • Influencers© IDC Dec-11 61
  62. 62. La oferta de IDC es muy amplia, déjanos que te la expliquemos con detalle!© IDC Dec-11 62
  63. 63. Feliz Navidad y Próspero Año 2012© IDC Dec-11 63
  64. 64. #prediccionesIDC© IDC Dec-11

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