Greter Richmond Real Estate Market

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This report describes the Greater Richmond VA real estate market. Please contact Lacy Williams at Joyner Fine Properties for additional assistance.

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Greter Richmond Real Estate Market

  1. 1. www.RichmondHousingToday.com The Greater Richmond Real Estate Market Lacy Williams Joyner Fine Properties February 2013Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 1
  2. 2. Quiz www.RichmondHousingToday.com NUMBER OF SALES: • What percentage did the number of single family sales increase between 2010 and 2012? • Where was the greatest percentage increase in the number of sales (lower, middle or higher price points)? INVENTORY: • What is the inventory (in months) of single family houses in Greater Richmond today? • Which price point has the greatest inventory (lower, middle or higher)? • Which location (City, Henrico, Hanover, Chesterfield, Goochland or Powhatan) has the highest inventory? And the lowest inventory? • Which MLS area of Richmond has the lowest inventory? • How many houses are for sale today in Greater Richmond?Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 2
  3. 3. Quiz www.RichmondHousingToday.com PRICES: • What is the average single family sales price in Greater Richmond in 2012? • What is the average single family price per square foot in Greater Richmond in 2012? • How did single family prices change between 2011 and 2012? • Which location (City, Henrico, Hanover, Chesterfield, Goochland or Powhatan) has the greatest price increases in 2012 for Single Family? And the larges price drop in 2012? • Which price point has the greatest percentage price increase (lower, middle or higher)? • In which quarter did the market turn?Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 3
  4. 4. Background www.RichmondHousingToday.com • This report is designed to provide information on the Richmond VA housing Market as well as the National Market. • Graphs in this report on the National Market are obtained from Keeping Current Matters and from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). For additional information on Keeping Current Matters, or to subscribe to this service, please go to www.KeepingCurrentMatters.com. For additional information on the National Association of Realtors, go to www.realtor.org. • The graphs and analysis of the Richmond area are produced by Joyner Fine Properties using the Central Virginia Regional Multiple Listing Service (CVRMLS) data. Data was extracted in January 2013 for most of the graphs. The Greater Richmond area is defined as the city of Richmond and the counties of Henrico, Chesterfield, Hanover, Goochland and Powhatan.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 4
  5. 5. www.RichmondHousingToday.com The National MarketProperty of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 5
  6. 6. Pending Home Sales www.RichmondHousingToday.com 105 Source: Keeping Current Matters 1/13 100 95 90 85 80 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov The stimulus tax credit expired in April of 2010. There was a sharp drop in the number of sales after that but the number of sales has been rising (with monthly fluctuation) since June of 2010 without government intervention. Forecasts are for the number of sales to continue to increase as the economy improves.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 6 NAR 12/2012
  7. 7. Month’s Inventory of Homes for Sale www.RichmondHousingToday.com 10.0 9.0 Source: Keeping Current Matters 1/13 8.0 7.0 6.0 5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory 5.0 4.0 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov As the number of sales has gone up, the inventory of available houses for sale has been dropping. The national market is below a 6 month inventory which is considered to be a normal market. Nationwide, we have a shortage of inventory as we do in parts of the Greater Richmond area.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 7 NAR 12/2012
  8. 8. US Home Prices Y-O-Y Changes www.RichmondHousingToday.comSource: Keeping Current Matters 11/12 As shown above, prices have risen during the past year in the Southeast including Virginia. Prices are still declining in the Mid Atlantic and Northeast.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 8 FHFA 2Q HPI Report
  9. 9. S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices www.RichmondHousingToday.com 5.0% Year-over-Year Change in Prices 4.3% 4.0% 3.6% 3.0% S&P Case Shiller 12/2012 2.0% 2.0% Source: Keeping Current Matters 1/13 1.1% 1.0% 0.6% Jan Feb Mar Apr May 0.0% Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct -1.0% -0.5% -2.0% -1.7% -3.0% -2.5% -4.0% -3.5% -3.9% -5.0% As shown above, prices have stopped dropping year over year and have shown considerable increases nationwide.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 9
  10. 10. Projected % Change in Home Prices www.RichmondHousingToday.com Source: Keeping Current Matters 1/13 Source 2013 JP Morgan 9.7% Barclays 5.5% Capital Economics 5% Freddie Mac 2-3% This slide has 2013 house price projections from 4 major real estate organizations.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 10
  11. 11. US Home Prices Next Year www.RichmondHousingToday.com 3.5 3.25 Source: Keeping Current Matters 11/12 3 2.8 2.5 2.44 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 Home Price Expectation Survey National Association of Business WSJ Economic Survey Economists Three leading National Groups are forecasting price increases to continue next year.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 11
  12. 12. Average Annual Appreciation www.RichmondHousingToday.com 12.0% 10.0% Source: Keeping Current Matters 1/13 10.4% Home Price Expectation Survey 12/2012 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 3.6% 3.3% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -5.7% -6.0% Pre-Bubble (1987-1999) Bubble (Q1 2000 - Q2 2006) Bust (Q3 2006 - Q2 2012) Expectations (2013 - 2017) Before the real estate bubble, prices rose an average of 3.6% per year. And now, prices are expected to return to the pre- bubble healthy appreciation levels.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 12
  13. 13. Mortgage Rates Moving Forward www.RichmondHousingToday.com “After reaching record lows in 2012, mortgage rates are expected to creep up slowly in the year ahead, the Mortgage Bankers Association predicted. Rates on the 30-year fixed- Projected Average 30 Year Rate 4.5 4.4 rate mortgage are expected 4.4 to average 3.8% in the 4.3 4.2 fourth quarter of 2012, rising 4.1 4 to 3.9% in the first quarter 3.9 3.9 3.8 of 2013 and eventually rising 3.8 3.7 to an average 4.4% by the 3.6 fourth quarter of next year.” 3.5 2012 4Q 2013 1Q 2013 4Q Source: Keeping Current Matters 11/12Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 13 MarketWatch 10/24/2012
  14. 14. The Cost of Waiting a Year www.RichmondHousingToday.com Source: Keeping Current Matters 11/12 Source: Keeping Current Matters 11/12 Interest Date Price P&I Rate Today $200,000 3.5% $898.09 2013 4Q $204,880 4.4% $1,025.96 Difference in Payment $127.87 With prices rising and the interest rate going up, waiting to buy a house will cost you significantly more. The example above show that waiting just a year will cost you $127.87 more for a $200,000 house.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 14
  15. 15. US Percentage of Distressed Property Sales www.RichmondHousingToday.com 35% Source: Keeping Current Matters 11/12 35% 30% 25% 20% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 24% Sept Another positive sign is that the percentage of distressed property sales (including foreclosures and short sales) has been declining.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 15 NAR 10/2012
  16. 16. Highest Foreclosure Inventory www.RichmondHousingToday.com Source: Keeping Current Matters 1/13 Some states shown in red still have large backlogs of foreclosures to work through.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 16
  17. 17. US Housing Starts www.RichmondHousingToday.com Source: NAR Housing starts measure the number of newly constructed homes. The U.S. Population grows by approximately 3 million per year (though it is estimated to have slowed to 2 million in 2011). Based on population growth and the need to replace some of the demolished housing units, most economists believe about 1.5 million housing units need to be built each year, which also happens to be the historical average (shown with the green line). In recent years, new home construction has been well below the norm contributing to more job losses in the construction industry. Multifamily units are primarily for rentals and this sector is experiencing a recovery due to rising rents. Housing starts have risen by 20% so far this year. Falling inventory means that builders need to ramp up production. But many smaller builders cannot obtain construction loans. Housing starts are forecast to rise 25% in 2012 and by 50% in 2013.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 17
  18. 18. Housing Facts www.RichmondHousingToday.com Median Home Prices UP 7.3% rose in 110 out of 147 MSAs Existing Distressed -33% Home Sales +8.6% Properties Existing Mortgage Inventory -24.4% - .86% Rates Source: Keeping Current Matters 9/12 NAR 2nd Quarter 2012 vs. 2nd Quarter 2011Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 18
  19. 19. www.RichmondHousingToday.com Greater Richmond Housing Market Note: All Greater Richmond graphs include the city of Richmond and the counties of Henrico, Hanover, Chesterfield, Goochland and Powhatan. All data is taken from the Central Virginia Regional Multiple List Service (CVRMLS)Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 19
  20. 20. www.RichmondHousingToday.com Market Indicator #1: The Number of Sales is Up!!!Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 20
  21. 21. Number of Single Family House Sales by Year www.RichmondHousingToday.com Greater Richmond Single Family Sales Number of Single Family 18000 16450 15262 15533 15074 16000 14000 12737 12644 House Sales 12000 9482 9069 10177 8574 9051 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 201 201 201 Year Source: CVRMLS data 1/6/13 The number of single sales dropped every year from 2005 to 2010. The number of sales in 2010 was approximately half of the number of sales in 2005. After 5 straight years of declining sales, the number of sales in 2011 was 5.5% higher than 2010 and 2012 sales were 12.5 % higher than 2011 sales. Between 2010 and 2012, sales increased 18.7%.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 21
  22. 22. 2011 vs 2012 Single Family Sales By Month www.RichmondHousingToday.com 2011 vs 2012 Sales By Month Number of Closed Single 1250 1050 Family Sales 850 2011 650 2012 450 250 ct ov l ug n ec b n ay pt ar pr Ju Ja Fe Ju O M Se A N D M A MonthProperty of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 22
  23. 23. Number of Single Family House Sales by Month and Year www.RichmondHousingToday.com Greter Richmond Single Family Sales By Month and Year 2000 Number of Closed Sales 1800 1600 1400 2006 1200 2007 1000 2008 800 2009 600 400 200 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Month Source: CVRMLS data This graph shows the number of sales by month and year. The number of sales dropped every year from 2006 through 2010. There was a housing stimulus tax credit that started in the latter half of 2009.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 23
  24. 24. Number of Single Family House Sales by Month and Year www.RichmondHousingToday.com Greater Richmond Single Family Sales by Month and Year 1300 1100 Number of Sales 2009 900 2010 700 2011 2012 500 300 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Month Source: CVRMLS data There was real estate tax credit in the second half on 2009 that ended June 30, 2010. After that sales dropped drastically but they have been increasing since then.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 24
  25. 25. Single Family Sales By Year and Quarter www.RichmondHousingToday.com Greater Richmond Single Family First Quarter Sales by Year 4000 Number of First 3161 Quarter Sales 2892 3000 2088 1903 1612 1786 2000 1487 1000 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: CVRMLS Data 7/15/12 Year 2012 is 6.5% higher than 2011. Greater Richmond Single Family Second Quarter Sales in the first quarter of 2012 Sales by Year were higher than sales for the 4567 Number of Second past 3 years. And sales in the 5000 3919 Quarter Sales second quarter were higher than 4000 3013 3040 2910 2622 3000 2533 sales in 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2000 2011 second quarters.. Note that 1000 there was a tax credit stimulus 0 that expired during the second 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 quarter of 2010 making sales Year 2012 is 15.9% higher than 2011. then artificially high.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 25
  26. 26. Third and Fourth Quarter Sales www.RichmondHousingToday.com Greater Richmond Single Family Third Quarter Sales by Year Source: CVRMLS Data 11/26/12 5000 Number of Closed 4111 4000 3421 2526 2692 2772 Sales 3000 2496 1999 2000 1000 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2012 is 11% higher than 2011. Year Greater Richmond Single Family House Sales in Fourth Quarter by Year Sales in the third quarter of 2012 3500 3222 were higher than sales for the Number of Sales 3000 2362 2357 2347 2500 2123 past 4 years!! 2012 fourth 2000 1707 1847 quarter sales are 10.6% 1500 1000 higher than 2011 fourth 500 quarter sales. Note that 2009 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 had a tax credit during the Year fourth quarter.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 26
  27. 27. Condominium Sales in Greater Richmond www.RichmondHousingToday.com Greater Richmond Condominium/Townhouse Sales Number of Condominium 2500 2035 2000 1761 1757 1382 1416 1500 Sales 1154 1201 1093 1000 500 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Year Source: CVRMLS data 1/6/13 In the condominium/townhouse market, after 4 years of dropping sales, 2011 sales (shown in light green) were 10% higher than 2010 and higher than 2009. And 2012 sales (shown in green) 18% higher than 2011 sales!!!Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 27
  28. 28. Condominium Sales - First and Second Quarter www.RichmondHousingToday.com Greater Richmond First Quarter Condominium Sales by Year 500 No of First Quarter 428 376 400 310 267 Source: CVRMLS data Sales 300 242 190 189 200 100 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Year 2012 sales were 10% higher than 2011 sales. Greater Richmond Second Quarter Condominium Sales by Year The first quarter of 2012 had more sales than the first quarter of the 800 Condominium 601 No of Closed previous 3 years. The second quarter 600 529 420 431 Sales 344 389 of 2012 had more sales than 2011 or 400 324 2009 second quarters. There was a 200 tax credit which ended in the second 0 quarter of 2010 so sales were 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 artificially stimulated. 2012 sales were 13% higher than 2011 sales. Year Source: CVRMLS data 8/16/12Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 28
  29. 29. Condominium Sales – Third and Fourth Quarters www.RichmondHousingToday.com Greater Richmond Third Quarter Condminium Sales by Year 800 Number of Sales 578 600 499 393 400 355 345 325 Source: CVRMLS data 219 200 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Year 2012 salesCVRMLS data 10/1/12 Source: were 21% higher than 2011 sales. Greater Richmond Condominium and Townhouse Sales in Fourth Quarter Third quarter sales in 2012 were Fourth Quarter Sales 500 424 higher than third quarter sales of the 400 339 338 previous 4 years!!. The fourth quarter 300 288 287 233 225 of 2012 had 18% more sales than the 200 fourth quarter of 2011. 1002011 sales were 27% higher than 2010 sales. 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 YearProperty of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 29
  30. 30. Year Over Year Change in Number of Sales www.RichmondHousingToday.com Number of Single Family House Sales in Greater Richmond Price Range 1/11-12/11 1/12-12/12 Change $0-$250,000 6259 6799 8.63% $250,001-$500,000 2317 2755 18.90% In the Condominium market, Year over Year number of sales $500,001-$750,000 395 470 18.99% by price point have increased in all price points with dramatic $750,001-$1,000,000 102 106 3.92% increases in the higher price $1,000,001+ 30 47 56.67% points.. In the single family market, Number of Condominium/Townhouse Sales in Greater Year over Year number of Richmond sales by price point have increased in all price points Price Range 1/11-12/11 1/12-12/12 Change with the greatest increase in the high end market.. $0-$250,000 932 1078 15.67% $250,001-$500,000 268 300 11.94%Source: CVRMLS data 1/13/13 $500,001+ 14 39 178.57%Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 30
  31. 31. www.RichmondHousingToday.com Market Indicator #2: Inventory is Down!!!Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 31
  32. 32. Months Supply’s Impact on Price www.RichmondHousingToday.com Months Market Pricing 1-4 Sellers Appreciation 5-6 Even The Norm 7+ Buyers Depreciation Source: Keeping Current Matters 8/10As shown on the graph, a 7 month or greater supply of houses causes depreciation of prices. We arecurrently at a normal market amount of inventory.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 32
  33. 33. Inventory of Single Family Houses by Month in Greater Richmond www.RichmondHousingToday.com Inventory of single Family Houses By Month 12.0 10.0 Inventory of Houses 8.0 2010 2011 6.0 2012 2013 4.0 2.0 0.0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Month Source: CVRMLS data The supply of houses is determined by the number of active listings divided by the monthly sales rate for the past year. After 2+ years of inventory between 8 and 10 months, inventory began to drop in the later months of 2011 and has continued to drop in 2012 and 2013. We are following a nationwide trend of declining inventory. In May 2010, there were 7455 houses listed for sale in Greater Richmond and now there are 3640. A normal market is 5-6 months of inventory.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 33
  34. 34. Single Family Inventory by Price Range www.RichmondHousingToday.com Source: CVRMLS data 1/7/13 Price Range Inventory (Months) $0-$250,000 4.1 $250,001-$500,000 5.3 $500,001-$750,000 6.0 $750,001-$1,000,000 9.5 $1,000,001+ 12.8 The inventory of houses is lowest at the lower price points. As lower priced houses sell, the Sellers will move up to higher priced houses and the inventory of higher priced houses should start going down. There are clearly still challenges for Sellers at the higher price points. However, the number of sales at the higher price points is increasing.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 34
  35. 35. Single Family Inventory by County www.RichmondHousingToday.com Inventory By County/City 10.0 8.3 7.3 Inventory 8.0 4.3 5.0 4.2 4.3 6.0 3.7 4.0 2.0 0.0 Richmond Richmond Henrico Goochland Hanover Chesterfield Powhatan City of All County Source: CVRMLS data 1/27/13 The inventory of single family homes in the city of Richmond, Henrico, Hanover and Chesterfield are indicative of a normal market. Areas that are further out (Goochland, Powhatan) have higher inventories.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 35
  36. 36. Inventory of Condominiums www.RichmondHousingToday.com Inventory of Townhouse/Condominiums by Year and Month in Greater Richmond Months of Inventory 12.0 10.0 2010 8.0 2011 6.0 4.0 2012 2.0 2013 0.0 v n n l c g p r ar b ct ay Ju Ap No Ja Ju De Au Se Fe O M M Month Source: CVRMLS data The inventory of condominiums (determined by the active listing and the sales rate) began dropping in the second half of 2011 and has continued to drop in 2012. In April 2011, there were 966 active condominium listings in Greater Richmond and today there are 440.. The inventory in February 2013 is more than 7 months less than in December of 2010.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 36
  37. 37. www.RichmondHousingToday.com Market Indicator #3: Prices have bottomed out and are rising!!!Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 37
  38. 38. Single Family Average Sales Price By Month www.RichmondHousingToday.com Average Sales Price By Month $330,000 Average Sales Price $310,000 $290,000 $270,000 $250,000 $230,000 $210,000 $190,000 $170,000 $150,000 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Month Source: CVRMLS data 1/13/13 The average sales price in Greater Richmond appears to have hit the bottom and are rising. Note that the spring peak in prices in 2012 was higher than 2011 and the low points are also higher.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 38
  39. 39. Greater Richmond Single Family Price Per Square Foot by Month www.RichmondHousingToday.com Average Price Per Square Foot By Month For Closed House Sales in Greater Richmond Price Per Square Foot For $150.00 $140.00 Closed Sales $130.00 $120.00 $110.00 $100.00 $90.00 $80.00 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Source: CVRMLS data 1/13/13 Month Price per square foot is a good indication of what is really happening. Note that the spring high in 2012 is higher than last year and the winter low does not seem to be occurring.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 39
  40. 40. Average Price Per Square Foot By Year for Single Family House Sales in Greater Richmond www.RichmondHousingToday.com Greater Richmond Single Family Price Per Square Foot For Closed House Sales By Year Price Per Square Foot $150 $139.64 $140 $135.82 $132.43 $130 $123.38 $117.82 $120 $112.24 $107.60 $104.98 $106.16 $110 $99.65 $100 $92.37 $90 $80 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Year Source: CVRMLS data 1/13/13 Prices have started to rise in Greater Richmond with 2012 prices being approximately 1% higher than 2011 prices. With a 25% decrease in prices between 2007 and 2011, prices are still at 2004 levels as indicated in the red line on this graph.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 40
  41. 41. Single Family Year over Year Price Change www.RichmondHousingToday.com Percent Change in Price Per Square Foot From Previous Year for Closed Sales in Greater Richmond Source: CVRMLS data 1/13/13 20.0% 14.7% 15.0% 10.1% 10.0% 7.9% 8.0% 5.0% 2.8% 1.1% 0.0% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 -5.0% -5.2% -4.7% -10.0% -6.5% -11.0% -15.0% Year over year price change shows that as 2012 prices are increasing over 2011 prices after 4 years of declines. In this graph, the 7.9% increase in 2003 is the increase in prices between 2002 and 2003 etc. Prices in 2012 are up 1.1% from 2011.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 41
  42. 42. Single Family Price Per Square Foot By Quarter www.RichmondHousingToday.com Greater Richmond Single Family Price Per Square Foot by Quarter Source: CVRMLS data 1/13/13 $145.00 Price per Square Foot $135.00 The turn in the market!!! $125.00 $115.00 $105.00 $95.00 $85.00 $75.00 2007-01 2007-02 2007-03 2007-04 2008-01 2008-02 2008-03 2008-04 2009-01 2009-02 2009-03 2009-04 2010-01 2010-02 2010-03 2010-04 2011-01 2011-02 2011-03 2011-04 2012-01 2012-02 2012-03 2012-04 Quarter First Quarter Second Quarter Third Quarter Fourth Quarter Sales Sales Sales SalesWhen looking at this graph, look at one color at a time. First look at the first quarter prices in pink: dropping in 2008, 09, 10 and 11. 2012 is 42almost equal to 2011. Likewise, the second quarter sales in yellow dropped from 2007 to 2011 and 2012 is equal to 2011. The third quarter is inblue and 2012 third quarter prices are higher than 2011 third Source: CVRMLSfourth quarter is in green and 2012 fourth quarter prices are quarter prices. The datasignificantly higher than 2011 fourth quarter prices. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 42
  43. 43. 2011 vs 2012 Prices By County www.RichmondHousingToday.com Change in Prices Between 2011 and 2012 8.00% 6.54% 6.00% 4.00% 2.29% 1.85% 2.00% 0.75% -0.10% 0.00% d -2.00% nd o ld er an on ri c ie ov la t m ha rf en ch an ch -4.00% e w H st oo H Ri Po he G of -6.00% C ity C -8.00% CVRMLS data 1/13/13 Source: -6.70%Prices have risen in some areas between 2011 and 2012 shown in green. But Chesterfield is slightly down and Powhatanstill has some challenges.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 43
  44. 44. Condominium Price Per Square Foot www.RichmondHousingToday.com Price Per Square Foot For Closed Condominium Sales in Greater Richmond $170.00 Price Per Square Foot $160.00 $150.00 $140.00 $130.00 $120.00 $110.00 $100.00 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Month Source: CVRMLS data 1/13/13 Price per square foot is a good indicator or prices. Notice that the highs in price per square foot are higher than last year.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 44
  45. 45. Price Per Square Foot for Greater Richmond Condominium Sales By Year www.RichmondHousingToday.com Price Per Square Foot for Condominium Sales By Year $160 $154.00 $152.70 $149.49 Price per Square Foot $150 $133.49 $135.62 $140 $131.55 $130 $119.16 $121.13 $120 $113.32 $110 $100.03 $100 $90.84 $90 $80 $70 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Source: CVRMLS data `1/13/13 Year The price per square foot for condominium sales is between 2004 and 2005 levels. But more significantly, prices in 2012 are 1.7% higher than 2011 indicating that prices have starting to rise. Prices are expected to start rising next year. There was a 23% decrease in prices between 2007 and 2011.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 45
  46. 46. Year of Year Price Per Square Foot Change By Price Range www.RichmondHousingToday.com Single Family Condominium/Townhouse Price per Square Foot Change in Greater Richmond Condominium Price per Square Foot Change in Greater Richmond Price Range 1/11-12/11 1/12-12/12 Change Price Range 1/11-12/11 1/12-12/12 Change $0-$250,000 $86.12 $86.91 0.92% $250,001-$500,000 $120.78 $122.15 1.13% $0-$250,000 $108.35 $106.83 -1.40% $500,001-$750,000 $153.92 $150.30 -2.35% $250,001-$500,000 $150.05 $151.83 1.19% $750,001-$1,000,000 $181.46 $175.17 -3.47% $500,001+ $180.98 $190.96 5.51% $1,000,001+ $220.51 $235.24 6.68% In the condominium market, price per square foot is In the single family market, prices have increased in increasing in the higher price points. the lower prices and also in the top end market. Prices in the middle should start to rise in the next few months. Source: CVRMLS data 1/13/13Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 46
  47. 47. Greater Richmond 2012 Top 10 Single Family Sales www.RichmondHousingToday.com Price Per Square Square Rank Area Address Feet Bedrooms Sale Price Foot 1 Richmond 6107 Three Chopt 9100 6 $2,900,000 $318.68 2 Goochland 1686 Broad Street Road 6382 5 $2,750,000 $430.90 3 Richmond 390 and 400 Old Lock Ln 5630 5 $2,300,000 $408.53 4 Goochland 970 Millers Lane 8044 7 $2,000,000 $248.63 5 Henrico 8 W Glenbrooke Cir 5650 4 $1,962,725 $347.38 6 Richmond 5 Hampton Hills Lane 7104 7 $1,960,000 $275.90 7 Henrico 215 Dryden Lane 8600 7 $1,800,000 $209.30 8 Henrico 5 Kanawha Rd 7777 7 $1,800,000 $231.45 9 Henrico 228 Cragmont Cir 7693 5 $1,710,000 $222.28 10 Goochland 712 Old Stream Road 5932 4 $1,635,000 $275.62Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 47
  48. 48. Top 10 Condominiums Sales for 2012 www.RichmondHousingToday.com 2012 TOP 10 Condominium Sales Rank Area Subdivision Address Sale Price Sq Ft Price/Sq/Ft 301 Virginia Street Unit 1 10 Vistas on the James 1803 & 1805 $1,050,000 2987 $351.52 2 40 Rocketts Landing 4820 Old Main St #609 $985,000 4560 $216.01 3 34 The Villas at Grey Oaks 4905 Grey Oaks Villas Dr $565,821 3129 $180.83 4 34 The Villas at Grey Oaks 4932 Grey Oaks Villas Dr $533,450 3093 $172.47 5 34 Bellingham -Twin Hickory 5201 Belva Rd $527,796 3324 $158.78 6 34 Club Commons 12053 Layton Drive $509,000 3337 $152.53 7 34 The Villas at Grey Oaks 4904 Grey Oaks Villas Dr $509,950 2862 $178.18 8 34 The Villas at Grey Oaks 4913 Grey Oaks Villas Dr $509,950 2833 $180.00 301 Virginia Street Unit 9 10 Vistas on the James 1601 $507,500 1371 $370.17 10 34 Bellingham -Twin Hickory 5105 Belva Rd $485,598 2711 $179.12 This includes condominium sales and not townhouse sales. 9 of the 10 top townhouse sales in 2012 were in Grayson Hill.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 48
  49. 49. Why Does it Still Feel Like A Buyers’s Market? www.RichmondHousingToday.com Number of Sales vs Price Per Square Foot for Single Family Sales By Year 20000 $160 $140 Closed Sales Square Foot 15000 $120 Price Per $100 Closed Sales 10000 $80 $60 Price Per Sq Ft 5000 $40 $20 0 $0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Year Source: CVRMLS data 1/13/13 The purple bars are the number of sales by year and the blue line is price per square foot. Note that sales were dropping in 2006 and 2007 while prices were still rising. In 2011 and early 2012, prices were dropping while the number of sales was increasing.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 49
  50. 50. Richmond Real Estate Areas www.RichmondHousingToday.com The Richmond Association of Realtors (RAR) uses Real estate areas as shown in the graph. The following analysis covers areas 10, 20, 22, 24, 30, 32, 34, 40, 42, 44, 50, 52, 54, 60, 62, 64 and 66 shown on the map. The analysis of MLS data was generally done for each month during the middle of the following month. MLS analysis may differ depending on what date the information is taken from the MLS system.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 50
  51. 51. Active Single Family Listings By Area www.RichmondHousingToday.com Active Listings By Area (As of 1/13/13) Number of Active Single 500 451 420 Family Listings 400 317 300 222 217 184 180 193 206 194 188 200 152 161 139 131 134 131 100 52 0 10 20 22 24 30 32 34 36 40 42 44 50 52 54 60 62 64 66 Area Source: CVRMLS data 1/13/13 The number of active listings by area is shown. Active listings are down significantly over last year. There are approximately 3800 fewer homes on the market than two years age. Richmond is following a nationwide trend of declining inventory. Inventory varies by area with area 54 having the highest number of homes for sale and Area 20 having the lowest.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 51
  52. 52. Single Family Average Sales Price By Area www.RichmondHousingToday.com Average Sales Price By Area For Single Family House Sales (1/1/12-12/31/12) $430,639 $390,136 $339,772 $320,726 $500,000 $308,686 Average Sales Price $275,815 $250,435 $237,573 $233,031 $222,605 $220,778 $400,000 $207,974 $185,099 $158,023 $142,220 $140,602 $125,806 $300,000 $101,570 $60,542 $200,000 $100,000 $0 10 20 22 24 30 32 34 36 40 42 44 50 52 54 60 62 64 hm 66 d on ic R ll A Area Source: CVRMLS data 1/13/13 Average sales price varies considerably by area with area 20 having the highest and area 50 having the lowest.Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 52

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