Richmond Housing Today December 2013

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Richmond Housing Today - December 2013

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Richmond Housing Today December 2013

  1. 1. www.RichmondHousingToday.com The Greater Richmond Real Estate Market Lacy Williams Joyner Fine Properties December 2013 Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 1
  2. 2. Background www.RichmondHousingToday.com • This report is designed to provide information on the Richmond VA housing Market as well as the National Market. • Graphs in this report on the National Market are obtained from Keeping Current Matters and from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). For additional information on Keeping Current Matters, or to subscribe to this service, please go to www.KeepingCurrentMatters.com. For additional information on the National Association of Realtors, go to www.realtor.org. • The graphs and analysis of the Richmond area are produced by Lacy Williams of Joyner Fine Properties using the Central Virginia Regional Multiple Listing Service (CVRMLS) data. Data was extracted in December 2013 for most of the graphs. The Greater Richmond area is defined as the city of Richmond and the counties of Henrico, Chesterfield, Hanover, Goochland and Powhatan. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 2
  3. 3. www.RichmondHousingToday.com The National Market Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 3
  4. 4. Return on Investment www.RichmondHousingToday.com January 2000 – November 2013 Source: Keeping Current Matters 11/13 MSN Money.com, Case Shiller 64.3 42.1 26 -.1 Dow S&P NASDAQ Real Estate In spite of recent downturns, real estate continues to be the best long term investment even with the downturn from 2006 to 2012. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 4
  5. 5. National Real Estate Recovery www.RichmondHousingToday.com Sales Started Sustained Recovery September 2011 Source: Keeping Current Matters 9/13 Prices Started Sustained Recovery June 2012 Inventory Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties Started Sustained Recovery January 2013 NAR 8/2013 5
  6. 6. Post-WWII Rescissions www.RichmondHousingToday.com Source: Keeping Current Matters 12/13 This graph shows job losses in each recession since World War II. As you can see in red, this recession has been deeper and longer than any other recession. The housing market is largely dependent of employment and the number of jobs. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 6
  7. 7. Average Annual Appreciation www.RichmondHousingToday.com Source: Keeping Current Matters 11/13 Nationwide average annual appreciation has been 5.1% for the past 2 years. Appreciation is expected to return to a normal level of 4.2% for the next few years.. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 7 Home Price Expectation Survey 2013 4Q
  8. 8. Year-over-Year Change in Prices www.RichmondHousingToday.com Source: Keeping Current Matters 12/13 After sharp price increases in the spring of 2013, prices are returning to a normal escalation level. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 8 S&P Case Shiller 11/2013
  9. 9. Home Price Expectation Survey www.RichmondHousingToday.com Source: Keeping Current Matters 11/13 Home Price Expectation Survey 2013 4Q Projected Percentage Increase The Home Price Expectation Survey is a yearly survey of over 100 leading real estate experts, economists, and financial analysts. This graph is the average of their predictions on price increases for the next 5 years. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 9
  10. 10. Cumulative Appreciation by 2018 www.RichmondHousingToday.com Source: Keeping Current Matters 11/13 Home Price Expectation Survey 2013 4Q The cumulative appreciation for the next 5 years (2014-2018) is expected to be 28%. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 10
  11. 11. Year-over-Year Price Changes by Region www.RichmondHousingToday.com Source: Keeping Current Matters 12/13 Prices are now rising in all areas of the country. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 11 FHFA 3Q Home Price Index11/2013
  12. 12. Year-over-Year Price Changes by State www.RichmondHousingToday.com Source: Keeping Current Matters 12/13c FHFA 3Q Home Price Index11/2013 Overall prices rose by 4.8% in Virginia. The Richmond area is a little higher with year over year price increases at 6.5% Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 12
  13. 13. Months Inventory of Homes for Sale www.RichmondHousingToday.com Source: Keeping Current Matters 12/13 5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory Nationwide, inventory levels are at a normal level of 5 months. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 13 NAR 11/2013
  14. 14. Percentage of Distressed Property Sales www.RichmondHousingToday.com 35% Source: Keeping Current Matters 11/13 14% Nationwide, Distressed properties continue to decline with monthly variations. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 14 NAR 10/2013
  15. 15. Distressed Properties www.RichmondHousingToday.com Months Supply Source: Keeping Current Matters 12/13 CoreLogic11/2013 Virginia is also doing well in the reduced level of Distressed Properties. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 15
  16. 16. Typical Sold Price: FSBO vs. Agent www.RichmondHousingToday.com Source: Keeping Current Matters 11/13 $215K $175K By FSBO By AGENT Nationwide, sales with a Realtor are higher than For Sale by Owner (FSBO). However, studies have shown that people are more likely to FSBO in markets with lower price points. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 16
  17. 17. FSBOs as a Percentage of all Home Sales www.RichmondHousingToday.com 19 Source: Keeping Current Matters 12/13 17 15 13 11 9 7 5 1991 The percentage of homes selling as a FSBO has decreased from 19% to 9% in the last 20 years 1993 1995 Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 1997 1999 2001 2003 2004 2005 17 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
  18. 18. Mortgage Rate Projections www.RichmondHousingToday.com Source: Keeping Current Matters 11/13 Analyst Projected Rate 3Q 2014 Fannie Mae 5.0% National Assoc of Realtors 5.4% Freddie Mac 5.1% Mortgage Bankers Assoc 5.0% Mortgage rates have gone from approximately 3.5% to 4.5%. Mortgage rates are projected to go higher during the next 12 months as shown in this graph. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 18 7/2013
  19. 19. www.RichmondHousingToday.com 3.2 million homeowners have been freed from negative equity in the last twelve months. 1.9 million additional are expected to be freed in the next twelve months. Negative equity occurs when the homeowner owes more on the house than it is worth. Negative equity has been one factor causing short sales and foreclosures. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 19 Zillow 8/2013
  20. 20. www.RichmondHousingToday.com Greater Richmond Housing Market Note: All Greater Richmond graphs include the city of Richmond and the counties of Henrico, Hanover, Chesterfield, Goochland and Powhatan. All data is taken from the Central Virginia Regional Multiple List Service (CVRMLS) Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 20
  21. 21. www.RichmondHousingToday.com Market Indicator #1: The Number of Sales is Up!!! Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 21
  22. 22. Number of Single Family House Sales by Year www.RichmondHousingToday.com 20000 15262 15533 16450 15074 12644 15000 12737 9482 9069 8574 9051 10177 10545 10000 5000 0 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 20 10 20 11 20 13 20 (T 12 hr u 12 /9 ) No of Closed Sales Greater Richmond Single Family Closed Sales Year Source: CVRMLS data 12/9/13 The number of single sales dropped every year from 2005 to 2010. The number of sales in 2010 was approximately half of the number of sales in 2005. After 5 straight years of declining sales, the number of sales in 2011 was 5.5% higher than 2010 and 2012 sales were 12.5 % higher than 2011 sales. Between 2010 and 2012, sales increased 18.7%. And Sales in 2013 are already higher than in 2012!! Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 22
  23. 23. Single Family Sales By Year and Quarter www.RichmondHousingToday.com The first Quarter of 2013 is 7% higher than 2012 and 26% higher than 2010. No of Closed First Quarter Sales Single Family Sales By Year in First Quarter 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 3161 2892 2088 1487 2006 2007 2008 1612 2009 2010 1801 1924 2057 2011 2012 Sales in the first quarter have risen for three straight years and are higher than the past 5 years. 2013 Source: CVRMLS Data 10/2/13 Year No of Closed Sales Second quarter sales have risen for the past three years. 2013 second quarter sales were higher than 2010 sales when there was a Federal tax credit and were higher than the past five years. 2013 second quarter sales were 38% higher than in 2009. Greater Richmond Singld Family Sales for Second Quarter 5000 4567 3919 4000 2910 3000 2533 3013 3069 3387 2000 1000 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Year Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 2657 23 2011 2012 2013
  24. 24. Third and Fourth Quarter Sales www.RichmondHousingToday.com Greater Richmond Single Family Third Quarter Sales Number of Closed Sales Source: CVRMLS Data 10/2/13 5000 4111 4000 3421 3000 2526 2692 2508 3180 2793 1999 2000 1000 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Year 2012 is 11% higher than 2011. are 10.6% higher than 2011 fourth quarter sales. Note that 2009 had a tax credit during the fourth quarter. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 3500 Number of Sales Sales in the third quarter of 2012 were higher than sales for the past 5 years!! 2013 Third quarter sales are 60% higher than 2010 third quarter sales. 2012 fourth quarter sales Greater Richmond Single Family House Sales in Fourth Quarter by Year 3222 3000 2500 2362 2357 1847 1707 2000 1500 2123 2347 1000 500 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 Year 24 2010 2011 2012
  25. 25. Number of Sales By Month www.RichmondHousingToday.com Greater Richmond Single Family Sales by Month and Year Number of Sales 1300 1100 2009 900 2010 2011 700 2012 500 2013 300 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Month Source: CVRMLS Data As shown above, the number of sales in October are lower than last year in October. The Real Estate market is affected by government budget crisis, the rising interest rate and other factors. Sales for the year are still significantly higher than last year. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 25
  26. 26. Pending and Closed Sales By Month www.RichmondHousingToday.com Pending and Closed Sales By Month No of Sales 1400 1200 1000 Pending 800 600 Closed 400 200 Nov-13 Oct-13 Sep-13 Aug-13 Jul-13 Jun-13 May-13 Apr-13 Mar-13 Feb-13 Jan-13 0 Month Source: CVRMLS Data 12/9/13 This graph shows the number of pending sales by month in blue and the number of closed sales by month in pink for 2013. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 26
  27. 27. Condominium Sales in Greater Richmond Greater Richmond Condominium/Townhouse Sales 1757 1507 20 13 (T h ru 12 /9 /1 3) 1093 1420 1201 20 12 1154 20 11 20 08 20 07 1382 20 10 2035 20 09 1761 20 06 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 20 05 Number of Condominium Sales www.RichmondHousingToday.com Year Source: CVRMLS data 12/9/13 In the condominium/townhouse market, after 4 years of dropping sales, 2011 sales (shown in light green) were 10% higher than 2010 and higher than 2009. And 2012 sales (shown in green) 18% higher than 2011 sales!!! And 2013 sales as of 12/9 are already higher than 2012 sales!! Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 27
  28. 28. Condominium Sales - First and Second Quarter www.RichmondHousingToday.com No of First Quarter Sales Greater Richmond First Quarter Condominium Sales by Year 500 The first quarter of 2013 had more sales than the first quarter of the previous 4 years. 2013 first quarter sales were 4% higher than 2012 sales and 52% higher than 2008 sales.. 428 376 400 310 300 242 190 2010 294 2012 2013 189 2009 275 200 100 0 2006 2007 2008 2011 Source: CVRMLS data Year Number of Closed Condominium Sales The second quarter of 2013 had more sales than the previous 5 years including 2010 when there was a federal tax credit. 2013 second quarter sales were 40% higher than 2009 second quarter sales. Greater Richmond Townhouse/Condominium Sales for Second Quarter 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 601 529 344 324 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Year 2012 sales were 13% higher than 2011 sales. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 431 420 28 2011 402 2012 456 2013
  29. 29. Condominium Sales – Third and Fourth Quarters www.RichmondHousingToday.com Number of Sales Third Quarter Greater Richmond Condminium Sales 800 600 578 499 355 400 345 325 393 446 Source: CVRMLS data 219 200 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Year Source: CVRMLS data 10/2/13 Third quarter sales in 2012 were higher than third quarter sales of the previous 4 years!!. Third quarter sales in 2013 were 103% higher than third quarter sales in 2010. The fourth quarter of 2012 had 18% more sales than the fourth quarter of 2011. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties Fourth Quarter Sales Greater Richmond Condominium and Townhouse Sales in Fourth Quarter 500 424 400 339 338 288 300 233 287 225 200 100 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 Year 29 2010 2011 2012
  30. 30. Year Over Year Change in Number of Sales www.RichmondHousingToday.com Number of Single Family House Sales in Greater Richmond Number of Condominium Sales in Greater Richmond Price Range 12/1111/12 12/1211/13 Change 2.56% $0-$250,000 1102 1110 0.73% 303 435 43.56% 34 68 100.00% Price Range 12/1111/12 12/1211/13 Change $0-$250,000 6826 7001 $250,001$500,000 2818 3440 22.07% $250,001$500,000 $500,001$750,000 457 610 33.48% $500,001+ $750,001$1,000,000 110 125 13.64% $1,000,001+ 50 52 4.00% In the Condominium market, Year over Year number of sales by price point have increased in all price points with dramatic increases in the higher price points.. In the single family market, Year over Year number of sales by price point have increased in all price points Source: CVRMLS data 12/9/13 Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 30
  31. 31. www.RichmondHousingToday.com Market Indicator #2: Inventory is Down!!! Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 31
  32. 32. Months Supply’s Impact on Price www.RichmondHousingToday.com Months Market Pricing 1-4 Sellers Appreciation 5-6 Even The Norm 7+ Buyers Depreciation Source: Keeping Current Matters 8/10 As shown on the graph, the amount of inventory determines if it is a Sellers or a Buyers market. In most areas of Richmond, we are now in a Buyer’s market. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 32
  33. 33. Inventory of Single Family Houses by Month in Greater Richmond www.RichmondHousingToday.com Inventory of Single Family Houses By Month 12.0 Inventory of Houses 10.0 8.0 2010 2011 6.0 2012 2013 4.0 2.0 0.0 Jan Feb Mar Source: CVRMLS data Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month The supply (inventory) of houses is determined by the number of active listings divided by the monthly sales rate for the past year. After 2+ years of inventory between 8 and 10 months, inventory began to drop in the later months of 2011 and has continued to drop in 2012 and 2013. Inventory has had a slight rise in the past few months as the market is returning to a normal market of 5-6 months of inventory. Inventory now is less than half of what it was three years ago. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 33
  34. 34. Single Family Inventory by Area www.RichmondHousingToday.com 9.4 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 7.2 Source: CVRMLS data 8/26/13 Al lR ic hm on d 4.7 Po wh at an Ch es te r fi nd el d 4.8 G oo ch la o Ha no ve r Ri c 5.4 3.9 He nr ic on d 4.7 hm Inventory (Months) Inventory of Single Family Houses in Greater Richmond (October 2013) Area The inventory of single family homes in the city of Richmond, Henrico, and Chesterfield are indicative of a normal market or even a Seller’s market. Areas that are further out (Goochland, Powhatan) have higher inventories and fewer sales and are still Buyer’s markets.. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 34
  35. 35. Inventory of Condominiums www.RichmondHousingToday.com 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 2010 2011 2012 Se p O ct No v De c Ju l Au g 2013 Ju n Ja n Fe b M ar Ap r M ay Months of Inventory Inventory of Townhouse/Condominiums by Year and Month in Greater Richmond Month Source: CVRMLS data The inventory of condominiums (determined by the active listing and the sales rate) began dropping in the second half of 2011 and has continued to drop in 2012 and 2013. In April 2011, there were 966 active condominium listings in Greater Richmond and today there are 470. The inventory in August 2013 is more than 7 months less than in December of 2010. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 35
  36. 36. Single Family Inventory by Price Range www.RichmondHousingToday.com Source: CVRMLS data 12/9/13 Single Family Inventory by Price Range Price Range Inventory (Months) Condominium Inventory By Price Range Price Range Inventory (Months) $0-$250,000 4.0 $0-$250,000 5.1 $250,001-$500,000 4.0 $250,001-$500,000 3.7 $500,001-$750,000 5.7 $500,001+ 6.2 $750,001-$1,000,000 9.8 $1,000,001+ 15.2 The inventory of houses and condominiums is lowest at the lower price points. There are clearly still challenges for Sellers at the higher price points. Houses in the higher price points must be competitively priced to sell. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 36
  37. 37. www.RichmondHousingToday.com Market Indicator #3: Prices are rising!!! Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 37
  38. 38. Single Family Average Sales Price By Month www.RichmondHousingToday.com Month The average sales price fluctuates monthly and has a yearly cycle. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 38 Jul-13 Jan-13 Jul-12 Jan-12 Jul-11 Jan-11 Jul-10 Jan-10 Jul-09 Jan-09 Jul-08 Jan-08 Jul-07 Jan-07 Jul-06 $330,000 $310,000 $290,000 $270,000 $250,000 $230,000 $210,000 $190,000 $170,000 $150,000 Jan-06 Average Sales Price Average Sales Price By Month Source: CVRMLS data 12/9/13
  39. 39. Greater Richmond Single Family Price Per Square Foot by Month www.RichmondHousingToday.com Source: CVRMLS data 12/9/13 Jul-13 Jan-13 Jul-12 Jan-12 Jul-11 Jan-11 Jul-10 Jan-10 Jul-09 Jan-09 Jul-08 Jan-08 Jul-07 Jan-07 $110.00 $100.00 $90.00 $80.00 Jul-06 $150.00 $140.00 $130.00 $120.00 Jan-06 Price Per Square Foot For Closed Sales Average Price Per Square Foot By Month For Closed House Sales in Greater Richmond Month Price per square foot is a good indication of what is really happening. Note that the trend is definitely upward. There are always seasonal variations with lower prices during the winter months. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 39
  40. 40. Average Price Per Square Foot for Single Family House Sales www.RichmondHousingToday.com 20 12 (T hr u 12 /9 ) 20 13 20 11 20 10 20 09 20 08 20 07 20 06 20 05 20 04 20 03 $150 $135.82 $139.64$132.43 $140 $123.38 $130 $117.82 $113.09 $112.24 $120 $107.60 $104.98$106.16 $110 $99.65 $92.37 $100 $90 $80 20 02 Price Per Square Foot Greater Richmond Single Family Price Per Square Foot For Closed House Sales By Year Year Source: CVRMLS data 10/2/13 Greater Richmond 2013 prices are 6.5% higher than 2012 prices. With a 25% decrease in prices between 2007 and 2011, prices are still between 2004 and 2005 levels as indicated in the red line on this graph. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 40
  41. 41. Single Family Year over Year Price Change www.RichmondHousingToday.com Percent Change in Price Per Square Foot From Previous Year for Closed Sales in Greater Richmond Source: CVRMLS data 10/2/13 20.0% 14.7% 15.0% 10.0% 7.9% 10.1% 8.0% 6.5% 2.8% 5.0% 1.1% 0.0% -5.0% 2003 -10.0% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 -4.7% -5.2% 2011 -6.5% 2012 2013 (Thru 12/9) -11.0% -15.0% Year over year price change shows that after 4 years of declines, prices started to increase in 2012 and have continued to increase in 2013.. In this graph, the 7.9% increase in 2003 is the increase in prices between 2002 and 2003 etc. In 2013, prices are up 6.5%. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 41
  42. 42. Single Family Price Per Square Foot By Quarter www.RichmondHousingToday.com Greater Richmond Single Family Price Per Square Foot by Quarter 2013-03 2013-02 2013-01 2012-04 2012-03 2012-02 2012-01 2011-04 2011-03 2011-02 2011-01 2010-04 2010-03 2010-02 2010-01 2009-04 2009-03 2009-02 2009-01 2008-04 2008-03 2008-02 2008-01 2007-04 2007-03 2007-02 $145.00 $135.00 $125.00 $115.00 $105.00 $95.00 $85.00 $75.00 2007-01 Price per Square Foot The turn in the market!!! Quarter First Quarter Sales Second Quarter Sales Third Quarter Sales Fourth Quarter Sales When looking at this graph, look at one color at a time. First look at the first quarter prices in pink: dropping in 2008, 09, 10 and 11. 2013 is higher than the previous two years. Likewise, the second quarter sales in yellow dropped from 2007 to 2011 and 2012 is equal to 2011 and 2013 is a huge increase from 2012.. The third quarter is in blue and 2013 third quarter prices are significantly higher than 2012 third quarter 42 prices. The fourth quarter is in green and 2012 fourth quarter pricesCVRMLS data higher than 2011 fourth quarter prices. Source: are significantly Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 42 Source: CVRMLS data 10/2/13
  43. 43. 2011 vs 2012 Prices By County www.RichmondHousingToday.com 11.45% Area Prices have risen year over year in all areas with dramatic rises in the city of Richmond. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 43 an ha t Po w he st e rf ie ld 3.75% C an ov er 4.09% H en ri c o H on d R Source: CVRMLS data 12/10/13 7.52% 6.49% 6.10% G oo ch la nd 14.00% 12.00% 10.00% 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% ic hm Change in Price Per Square Foot Change in Single Family Price Per Square Foot Between 12/11-11/12 and 12/12-11/13
  44. 44. Monthly Change in Prices www.RichmondHousingToday.com Change in Prices from Same Month in Previous Year 12.3% 12.0% 10% 5.5% 5% 5.2% 2.8% 2.3% 10.7% 8.6% 8.0% 6.8% 6.6% 5.6% 4.5% 7.6% 3.1% Nov 12-Nov 13 Sep 12-Sep 13 Jul 12- Jul 13 May 12-May 13 Mar 12-Mar 13 Jan 12-Jan 13 Sep 11-Sep 12 -10% Jul 11-Jul 12 -6.1% -0.3% -0.4% -0.7% -0.6% - 3.0% -3.3% Mar 11-Mar 12 -5% May 11-May 12 0% Nov 11-Nov 12 0.3% Jan 11-Jan 12 Change in Prices 15% M onth Source: CVRMLS data 12/9/13 This graph shows the change in price per square foot from one month to the same month a year later. For example on the right of the graph, July of 2013 price per square foot was 7.45% higher than in July of 2012. There are a normal monthly fluctuation but the trend in prices is significantly up. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 44
  45. 45. Condominium Price Per Square Foot www.RichmondHousingToday.com $170.00 $160.00 Month Jul-13 Jan-13 Jul-12 Jan-12 Jul-11 Jan-11 Jul-10 Jan-10 Jul-09 Jan-09 Jul-08 Jan-08 Jul-07 Jan-07 $130.00 $120.00 $110.00 $100.00 Jul-06 $150.00 $140.00 Jan-06 Price Per Square Foot Price Per Square Foot For Closed Condominium Sales in Greater Richmond Source: CVRMLS data 12/9/13 Condominiums and townhouse are showing a similar trend as single family homes with prices trending up for the past two years. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 45
  46. 46. Price Per Square Foot for Greater Richmond Condominium Sales By Year www.RichmondHousingToday.com Price per Square Foot Price Per Square Foot for Condominium Sales By Year $149.49$154.00$152.70 $160 $150 $135.62$131.55 $133.49 $130.41 $140 $121.13 $119.16 $130 $113.32 $120 $100.03 $110 $100 $90.84 $90 $80 $70 2 00 2 3 00 2 4 00 2 5 00 2 6 00 2 7 00 2 8 00 2 9 00 2 0 01 2 1 01 2 2 01 2 3 01 2 u hr (T 3) /1 /9 12 Year Source: CVRMLS data 12/9/13 The price per square foot for condominium sales is almost at 2005 levels. But more significantly, prices in 2013 are 7.6% higher than 2012. Prices are expected to continue rising for 2013 and 2014. There was a 23% decrease in prices between 2007 and 2011. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 46
  47. 47. Greater Richmond Year over Year Price Per Square Foot Change By Price Range www.RichmondHousingToday.com Single Family Condominium/Townhouse Price per Square Foot Change in Greater Richmond Price Range 12/1111/12 12/1211/13 Change $0-$250,000 $86.61 $95.01 Condominium Price per Square Foot Change in Greater Richmond 9.70% $250,001$500,000 $126.68 12/1211/13 Change $0-$250,000 $122.25 Price Range 12/1111/12 $106.51 $111.93 5.09% $150.83 $157.39 4.35% $190.86 $198.85 4.19% 3.62% $500,001$750,000 $149.80 $156.69 4.60% $250,001$500,000 $750,001$1,000,000 $173.01 $181.78 5.07% $500,001+ $1,000,001+ $228.90 $211.86 -7.44% In the single family market, prices have increased in all price points except the highest price points. Remember that the highest inventory is also at the highest price points causing price pressure.. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties In the condominium market, price per square foot is increasing in the lower and middle price points. There is still price pressure at the higher price points. Source: CVRMLS data 12/9/13 47
  48. 48. Richmond Real Estate Areas www.RichmondHousingToday.com The Richmond Association of Realtors (RAR) uses Real estate areas as shown in the graph. The following analysis covers areas 10, 20, 22, 24, 30, 32, 34, 40, 42, 44, 50, 52, 54, 60, 62, 64 and 66 shown on the map. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 48
  49. 49. Active Single Family Listings By Area www.RichmondHousingToday.com Number of Active Single Family Listings Active Listings By Area (As of 12/12/13) 600 503 500 415 355 400 254 300 201 223 232 197 193 194 192 184 161 146 149 138 200 104 41 100 0 10 20 22 24 30 32 34 36 40 42 44 50 52 54 60 62 64 66 Source: CVRMLS data 12/12/13 Area The number of active listings by area is shown. There are approximately 3560 fewer homes on the market than two years age. Inventory varies by area with area 54 having the highest number of homes for sale and Area 20 having the lowest. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 49
  50. 50. Single Family Average Sales Price By Area www.RichmondHousingToday.com $246,454 $268,781 $357,395 $201,375 60 $250,186 $216,550 54 $100,000 $173,791 $63,172 $234,976 $326,549 $286,313 $113,311 $150,000 $143,564 $200,000 $149,614 $250,000 32 $300,000 $148,485 $350,000 30 $400,000 $410,489 $450,000 $238,962 Average Sales Price $500,000 $316,699 $446,825 Average Sales Price By Area For Single Family House Sales (8/1/127/31/13) $50,000 Source: CVRMLS data 12/12/13 All Richmond 66 64 62 52 50 44 42 40 36 34 24 22 20 10 $0 Area Average sales price varies considerably by area with area 20 having the highest and area 50 having the lowest. The average single family house sale in greater Richmond for the past year is $246,454 Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 50
  51. 51. Single Family Price Per Square Foot By Area www.RichmondHousingToday.com $50.00 $107.99 $115.27 $116.51 $105.11 $102.43 $97.10 $87.08 $45.85 $112.07 $69.21 $82.88 $116.44 $124.82 $95.10 $100.00 $84.04 $130.96 $186.71 $130.47 $150.00 $117.19 $200.00 on d All Ric hm 66 64 62 60 54 52 50 44 42 40 36 34 32 30 24 22 20 $0.00 10 Price Per Square Foot Average Price Per Square Foot For Single Family House Closed Sales By Area (8/1/12-7/31/13) Source: CVRMLS data 12/12/13 Area Price per square foot also varies by Area with Area 20 (West end of the city) having the highest price per square foot. The average across greater Richmond is $105.85. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 51
  52. 52. Inventory of Single Family Houses www.RichmondHousingToday.com Supply of Houses by Area in Months 10.0 8.3 7.8 8.0 6.0 3.9 4.1 4.1 3.3 3.1 Source: CVRMLS data 12/12/13 66 64 62 60 54 52 All Richmond Red Line represents a normal market. 50 44 42 40 36 34 32 30 24 10 0.0 5.0 4.7 4.9 2.0 22 1.3 2.0 5.7 5.9 3.1 3.0 20 4.0 5.0 4.5 6.8 Area As shown above, the supply of houses varies greatly in Greater Richmond. Generally, the areas that are further out have the largest supply of houses while those that are closer in have lower inventories of houses. Goochland (Area 24) and Powhatan (Area 66) have the higher supplies of houses at 9.8 and 7.2 months. Area 50 had a lot of foreclosures and it has a higher inventory at 7.1 months. The average inventory in Greater Richmond is 4.1 months which is better than an normal market. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 52
  53. 53. www.RichmondHousingToday.com Summary Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 53
  54. 54. Existing Home Sales www.RichmondHousingToday.com 14,767 US Homes Sell Every Day and 10,631 Buyers Receive a Mortgage Every Day In spite of the recent downturn, home ownership continues to be the best long-term investment in the US!!! Source: Keeping Current Matters Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 54 NAR 12/2011
  55. 55. The Cost of Waiting www.RichmondHousingToday.com Price Money Down Mortgage Interest Rate Payment (P&I) Last Year* $187,800 $37,560 $150,240 3.5% $674.64 This Year* $213,500 $42,700 $170,800 4.5% $865.42 Next Year** $224,175 $44,835 $179,340 5% $962.74 *For the first two examples, we used the NAR’s Existing Home Sales Report to establish median price and Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey to establish mortgage rate. We also assumed a 20% down payment in all examples. **To establish next year’s pricing, we depended on the over 100 housing experts surveyed for the Home Price Expectation Survey who called for an approximate appreciation rate of 5% over the next twelve months. For the interest rate, we took the average of the projections from the Mortgage Bankers’ Association, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. Source: Keeping Current Matters 9/13 Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 55
  56. 56. 5 Reasons to Hire a Real Estate Professional www.RichmondHousingToday.com They help with all disclosures and paperwork necessary in today’s heavily regulated environment. They are well educated in and experienced with the entire sales process. They act as a ‘buffer’ in negotiations with all parties throughout the entire transaction. They help understand today’s real estate values when setting the price on a listing or on an offer to purchase. They simply and effectively explain today’s real estate headlines and decipher what they mean to you. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 56
  57. 57. www.RichmondHousingToday.com “The housing market has bottomed. It's not too late to get involved. I still think buying a home is the best investment any individual can make. Affordability is still at an all-time high. Buy a home and, if you can, buy a second home.” John Paulson Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties Source: Keeping Current Matters 8/13 57
  58. 58. Summary • • • • • www.RichmondHousingToday.com Sales are up Inventory is down Prices are rising. The interest rate is rising DO NOT WAIT TO BUY A HOUSE!!! IT WILL COST YOU A LOT MORE NEXT YEAR!! Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 58

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