Futures Frameworks Simulation

Future Frameworks Simulation Workshop Melanie Swan Principal MS Futures Group +1-650-681-9482 [email_address] www.melanieswan.com November 9, 2009 Slides: http://slideshare.net/LaBlogga/slideshows “ The future is something which every one reaches at the rate of sixty miles an hour, whatever he does, whoever he is.” - C. S. Lewis Image: http://wall.alphacoders.com/

Futures analysis techniques
Short term (0-5 yrs): some degree of insight and certainty
Forecasting
Scanning
Business intelligence
Trend analysis
Market research
Outlier identification
Technology evaluation checklist
Future frameworks November 9, 2009
Long term (5-20+ yrs): uncertainty, discontinuity
Frameworks
Scenario planning
Simulation
Wild-carding
Longitudinal studies
Multiple time frames
Prediction markets
Image: Bill Frymire

The problem: pervasive change Future frameworks November 9, 2009 Botnets Chromallocyte Life extension Swarm computing Synthetic biology Virtual reality Quantum computing Genomics 22 nm Electric vehicles 3D printing Smart phones Supercomputing 3D printing Neuroimaging DIYbio Automatic markets Cloud computing Programmable matter Autonomous robotics New battery chemistry Affordable space launch 4G Cyber terrorism Pandemic Molecular nanotechnology Algal fuel Minimal genomes Brain-computer interfaces (BCIs) Body area networks (BANs) Radiosurgery Cell broadband engine Positional assembly Peer-to-peer finance RFID Post-scarcity economy Smartgrid Rich attribute knowledge Fuel cell Nanoparticles Agalmics Knowledge engineering Solar power

The solution: futures frameworks
Technological level
Dimensional model
Chronological model
Velocity paradigms
FutureThink principles
Conceptual shifts
Underlying drivers
Trajectory intersection
Future frameworks November 9, 2009 Image: http://www.newsin3d.com Image: http://www.secondlife.com

1. Technological level Future frameworks November 9, 2009 Capability, technology, application or effect? Level 1 Enabler: Capability Research Labs Level 2 Enabler: Technology Startups Level 3 Enabler: Application Corporations Level 4 Enabler: Implication Societies
Mechanosynthesis
New battery chemistry
Exaflop computing
Knowledge representation
4G / WiMAX
22 nm node chips
Long DNA sequence reads
1 GB broadband
Molecular nanotechnology
Next-gen batteries
Natural language processing
TV on mobile phones
Facial recognition
Whole human DNA & RNA sequencing
Neuroimaging
Molecular synthesizer
Electric vehicles
Artificial intelligence
Brain-computer interface
3D printer
Million member clinical trial cohorts
Digital human mindfile
iPhone
FaceConnector
Post-scarcity economy
Geopolitical shifts
Gas-powered cars obsolete
Global service economy outsourced to automation
Chronic disease disappears
Remote medical diagnosis

2. Dimensional model Future frameworks November 9, 2009 Nanotechnology Medicine, Neuroscience and Human Enhancement Biotechnology and Bioinformatics Artificial Intelligence and Robotics Energy and Environmental Systems Networks and Computing Systems A unifying framework for SU track synthesis

3. Chronological model Future frameworks November 9, 2009 The ultimate future depends on the order in which advances arrive Artificial intelligence Molecular nanotechnology Anti-aging therapies Whole human genome New computing paradigm Robotics Neural implants Electric vehicles Affordable space launch 3D printing Synthetic biology Space-based civilization New energy regime Uploading Modification of human biological drives Time (years) 2009-2020 2020-2030 2030-2050 +10 +20 +40 Brain emulation Room- temperature superconductivity Mechanosynthesis 1 GB broadband Battery innovation THz computing era

4. Velocity: paradigms of growth
Linear
Economic, demographic, life span phenomena
Exponential
Technology: processors, memory, storage, communications, iPhone applications
Discontinuous
Plane, car, radio, wars, radar, nuclear weapons, satellites, computers, Internet, social networks
Difficult to predict
Rapid transition time and doubling capability
Adjacent technology advances
Future frameworks November 9, 2009 Exponential Discontinuous Linear

4. Discontinuity and adjacent advances Future frameworks November 9, 2009 1Source: http://www.hansonrobotics.com/Hanson-Robots_March-14-09.pdf 2 Source: http://www.chem.ucla.edu/houk/research.htm Innovation is interdisciplinary and interstitial Technology or Application Made possible by… iPod / MP3 players Disk miniaturization, longer battery life, business model for music download Blue Brain cortical simulation project Neuroimaging, infrared-DIC videomicroscopy, neuronal simulation software Protein folding simulation reaching to 1 ms Distributed computing, GPUs, Markov State models Telepresence Converged corporate telecoms services CardioMEMS Applying MEMS technology to pacemakers Zeno empathic robot – Hanson Robotics Battery, nanoporous materials advances 1 De novo enzyme design (Houk 2 ) Molecular dynamics, computational chemistry Nokia mobile phone leadership Digital technology (vs. Motorola’s analog) Nanoparticles/improved cancer treatment Molecular biology, molecular manufacturing Rapid prototyping and simulation RepRap, Fab@Home, 3D organ printing Political campaigns (B Obama, R Paul, H Dean) Social media, online fundraising

5. FutureThink: the mindset of the future
Increase in humaneness
Slavery, capital punishment
Increase in choices
Segment expansion (TiVo wedge)
Multiple choices, not either/or
Decrease in limitations
Earth habitability and carrying capacity
Continuation of conflict
Bioterror, surveillance, computer security
Future frameworks November 9, 2009 Image: http://aki54.wdfiles.com

6. Conceptual shift: science Future frameworks November 9, 2009 Model and simulate Enumerate and experiment Build BioSpice.org SimTK.org PartsRegistry.org GeneGo (pathway modeling) Entelos virtual patient biosimulation FabAtHome.org

6. Conceptual shift: health Future frameworks November 9, 2009 Source: http://futurememes.blogspot.com/2009/10/preventive-medicine-and-docs-vs.html Out of work due to technological advance: elevator operator, stock broker, physician (?)

Future frameworks November 9, 2009 7. Underlying drivers Source: http://www.kurzweilai.net/pps/SU_Executive_Program/ Penryn (45 nm) (65 nm) Nehalem Core i7 (45 nm) Westmere i9 (32 nm) (est.) Ivy Bridge (22 nm) (est.)

7. Computing paradigm shifts Future frameworks November 9, 2009 Source: http://www.kurzweilai.net/pps/SU_Executive_Program/ ?

7. Evolving computational models Future frameworks November 9, 2009 Current model extensibility Linear, von Neumann Parallel Cloud, grid, distributed Biological models Novel electronic models Traditional model Quantum Optical computing Cell broadband engine Liquid computer New materials New architectures: 3D stacking Programmable matter Molecular electronics DNA nanotech DNA computing Biosensors Cellular colonies Bacterial intelligence Bioparadigm discovery Space, not time-based

7. ITRS 1 semiconductor roadmap Future frameworks November 9, 2009 1 International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors Source: http://download.intel.com/technology/silicon/Paolo_Semicon_West_071904.pdf
Intel: 2-3 more cycles of Moore’s Law planned
Followed by 3-D architectures, programmable matter
Node: half the distance between cells in a DRAM chip 2009

7. A central challenge in computing Future frameworks November 9, 2009
Top-down solutions
EUV and block copolymer lithography
CNT transistors
Memristor
Quantum-dot cellular automata
Plasmonic materials & spintronics
Quilt packaging & 3D stacking
Bottom-up solutions
DNA self-assembly
DNA computing
DNA-based transistors
3D DNA nanocrystals
Molecular memory
Structural DNA: Holliday junction Rotaxane Molecular propeller Source: http://futurememes.blogspot.com/2009/05/opportunities-in-level-two-nanoscience.html Nanoscience 32 nm 10 nm

8. Trajectory intersection Future frameworks November 9, 2009 1 Source: Top 500, June 2009, http://www.top500.org/lists/2009/06, http://www.crn.com/hardware/208403186 2 Source: http://paula.univ.gda.pl/~dokgrk/bre01.html Arms race for the future of intelligence Machine Human
IBM Roadrunner 1.105 petaflop/s (>1,100 trillion IPS) and 80 TB memory 1
Unlimited operational/build knowledge
Quick upgrade cycles: performance capability doubling every 18 months
Linear, von Neumann architecture
Understands rigid language
Special purpose problem solving (Deep Blue, Chinook, ATMs, fraud detection)
Metal chassis, easy to backup
An estimated 20,000 trillion IPS and 1,000 TB memory 2
Limited operational/build knowledge
Slow upgrade cycles: 10,000 year evolutionary adaptations
Massively parallel architecture
Understands flexible, fuzzy language
General purpose problem solving, works well in new situations
Nucleotide chassis, no backup possible

Future frameworks November 9, 2009 Source: http://www.kurzweilai.net/pps/SU_Executive_Program/ 1 http://www.top500.org/lists/2009/06, http://www.top500.org/system/8968 2 http://paula.univ.gda.pl/~dokgrk/bre01.html 8. Full human neural simulation est: 2018 Average human: an estimated 20,000 trillion IPS and 1,000 TB memory 2 IBM Roadrunner: 1.1 petaflop/s (>1,100 trillion IPS) and 80 TB memory 1

8. Engineering life into technology Future frameworks November 9, 2009 2029 1 Machine Human Human ′ ? Capability Year Source: MS Futures Group, March 2009 Biomolecular interface convergence 1 Source: The Singularity is Near

Futures frameworks review Future frameworks November 9, 2009 1. Tech level 2. Dimensional 3. Chronological 4. Velocity 5. FutureThink 6. Conceptual shifts 7. Drivers 8. Intersection

Prediction markets Future frameworks November 9, 2009
Speculative market
Purpose: make predictions
Value: expose hidden information
Pay-off: monetary, reputational, indirect
Accuracy: better than conventional forecasting 1
Examples:
InTrade, IEM, HSX, LongBets
Structure
Event outcome (win/loss)
Market scoring (continuum)
1 Source: Arrow, K.J. et al “The Promise of Prediction Markets” Science, 2008, 320, 5878, 877-878 http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/summary/320/5878/877 Iowa Electronic Markets: 2008 Democratic Convention Market Clinton Obama Image: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/13/IEM_DCON2008.svg

Futures simulation workshop Future frameworks November 9, 2009
You are the world’s leading venture capitalists
5 teams, $1 billion to invest
STR – Political, Economic, Legal, Social Institutions NAN – Nanotechnology LIF – Life Sciences (Biotechnology & Medicine) AIC – AI, Robotics, Computing and Communications ENE – Energy, Environmental Systems and Space

Futures simulation workshop Future frameworks November 9, 2009
Round 1: 2009 – 2020
Each team creates two plausible future technology ideas to pitch to the other teams
Each person votes by investing in the top technologies
Winning teams and technologies are those that garner the most investment
Image: Natasha Vita-More, Primo Posthuman

Thank you Melanie Swan Principal MS Futures Group +1-650-681-9482 [email_address] www.melanieswan.com Slides: http://slideshare.net/LaBlogga/slideshows Creative Commons 3.0 license Image: http://wall.alphacoders.com/

Futures Frameworks Simulation

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