Future Frameworks Simulation Workshop Melanie Swan Principal MS Futures Group 415-505-4426 [email_address] www.melanieswan.com November 9, 2009 Slides: http://slideshare.net/LaBlogga/slideshows “ The future is something which every one reaches at the rate of sixty miles an hour, whatever he does, whoever he is.” - C. S. Lewis Image: http://wall.alphacoders.com/

Futures analysis techniques Short term (0-5 yrs): some degree of insight and certainty Forecasting Scanning Business intelligence Trend analysis Market research Outlier identification Technology evaluation checklist Long term (5-20+ yrs): uncertainty, discontinuity Frameworks Scenario planning Simulation Wild-carding Longitudinal studies Multiple time frames Prediction markets Image: Bill Frymire

Short term (0-5 yrs): some degree of insight and certainty

Forecasting

Scanning

Business intelligence

Trend analysis

Market research

Outlier identification

Technology evaluation checklist

Long term (5-20+ yrs): uncertainty, discontinuity

Frameworks

Scenario planning

Simulation

Wild-carding

Longitudinal studies

Multiple time frames

Prediction markets

The problem: pervasive change Botnets Chromallocyte Life extension Swarm computing Synthetic biology Virtual reality Quantum computing Genomics 22 nm Electric vehicles 3D printing Smart phones Supercomputing 3D printing Neuroimaging DIYbio Automatic markets Cloud computing Programmable matter Autonomous robotics New battery chemistry Affordable space launch 4G Cyber terrorism Pandemic Molecular nanotechnology Algal fuel Minimal genomes Brain-computer interfaces (BCIs) Body area networks (BANs) Radiosurgery Cell broadband engine Positional assembly Peer-to-peer finance RFID Post-scarcity economy Smartgrid Rich attribute knowledge Fuel cell Nanoparticles Agalmics Knowledge engineering Solar power

The solution: futures frameworks Technological level Dimensional model Chronological model Velocity paradigms FutureThink principles Conceptual shifts Underlying drivers Trajectory intersection Image: http://www.newsin3d.com Image: http://www.secondlife.com

Technological level

Dimensional model

Chronological model

Velocity paradigms

FutureThink principles

Conceptual shifts

Underlying drivers

Trajectory intersection

1. Technological level Capability, technology, application or effect? Post-scarcity economy Geopolitical shifts Gas-powered cars obsolete Global service economy outsourced to automation Chronic disease disappears Remote medical diagnosis Molecular synthesizer Electric vehicles Artificial intelligence Brain-computer interface 3D printer Million member clinical trial cohorts Digital human mindfile iPhone FaceConnector Molecular nanotechnology Next-gen batteries Natural language processing TV on mobile phones Facial recognition Whole human DNA & RNA sequencing Neuroimaging Mechanosynthesis New battery chemistry Exaflop computing Knowledge representation 4G / WiMAX 22 nm node chips Long DNA sequence reads 1 GB broadband Level 3 Enabler: Application Corporations Level 1 Enabler: Capability Research Labs Level 4 Enabler: Implication Societies Level 2 Enabler: Technology Startups

Post-scarcity economy

Geopolitical shifts

Gas-powered cars obsolete

Global service economy outsourced to automation

Chronic disease disappears

Remote medical diagnosis

Molecular synthesizer

Electric vehicles

Artificial intelligence

Brain-computer interface

3D printer

Million member clinical trial cohorts

Digital human mindfile

iPhone

FaceConnector

Molecular nanotechnology

Next-gen batteries

Natural language processing

TV on mobile phones

Facial recognition

Whole human DNA & RNA sequencing

Neuroimaging

Mechanosynthesis

New battery chemistry

Exaflop computing

Knowledge representation

4G / WiMAX

22 nm node chips

Long DNA sequence reads

1 GB broadband

2. Dimensional model Nanotechnology Medicine, Neuroscience and Human Enhancement Biotechnology and Bioinformatics Artificial Intelligence and Robotics Energy and Environmental Systems Networks and Computing Systems A unifying framework for SU track synthesis

3. Chronological model The ultimate future depends on the order in which advances arrive Artificial intelligence Molecular nanotechnology Anti-aging therapies Whole human genome New computing paradigm Robotics Neural implants Electric vehicles Affordable space launch 3D printing Synthetic biology Space-based civilization New energy regime Uploading Modification of human biological drives Time (years) 2009-2020 2020-2030 2030-2050 +10 +20 +40 Brain emulation Room- temperature superconductivity Mechanosynthesis 1 GB broadband Battery innovation THz computing era

4. Velocity: paradigms of growth Linear Economic, demographic, life span phenomena Exponential Technology: processors, memory, storage, communications, iPhone applications Discontinuous Plane, car, radio, wars, radar, nuclear weapons, satellites, computers, Internet, social networks Difficult to predict Rapid transition time and doubling capability Adjacent technology advances Exponential Discontinuous Linear

Linear

Economic, demographic, life span phenomena

Exponential

Technology: processors, memory, storage, communications, iPhone applications

Discontinuous

Plane, car, radio, wars, radar, nuclear weapons, satellites, computers, Internet, social networks

Difficult to predict

Rapid transition time and doubling capability

Adjacent technology advances

4. Discontinuity and adjacent advances 1Source: http://www.hansonrobotics.com/Hanson-Robots_March-14-09.pdf 2 Source: http://www.chem.ucla.edu/houk/research.htm Innovation is interdisciplinary and interstitial Distributed computing, GPUs, Markov State models Protein folding simulation reaching to 1 ms Neuroimaging, infrared-DIC videomicroscopy, neuronal simulation software Blue Brain cortical simulation project Digital technology (vs. Motorola’s analog) Nokia mobile phone leadership Molecular biology, molecular manufacturing Nanoparticles/improved cancer treatment RepRap, Fab@Home, 3D organ printing Rapid prototyping and simulation Converged corporate telecoms services Telepresence Applying MEMS technology to pacemakers CardioMEMS Battery, nanoporous materials advances 1 Zeno empathic robot – Hanson Robotics Molecular dynamics, computational chemistry De novo enzyme design (Houk 2 ) Disk miniaturization, longer battery life, business model for music download iPod / MP3 players Social media, online fundraising Political campaigns (B Obama, R Paul, H Dean) Made possible by… Technology or Application

5. FutureThink: the mindset of the future Increase in humaneness Slavery, capital punishment Increase in choices Segment expansion (TiVo wedge) Multiple choices, not either/or Decrease in limitations Earth habitability and carrying capacity Continuation of conflict Bioterror, surveillance, computer security Image: http://aki54.wdfiles.com

Increase in humaneness

Slavery, capital punishment

Increase in choices

Segment expansion (TiVo wedge)

Multiple choices, not either/or

Decrease in limitations

Earth habitability and carrying capacity

Continuation of conflict

Bioterror, surveillance, computer security

6. Conceptual shift: science Model and simulate Enumerate and experiment Build BioSpice.org SimTK.org PartsRegistry.org GeneGo (pathway modeling) Entelos virtual patient biosimulation FabAtHome.org

6. Conceptual shift: health Source: http://futurememes.blogspot.com/2009/10/preventive-medicine-and-docs-vs.html Out of work due to technological advance: elevator operator, stock broker, physician (?)

7. Underlying drivers Source: http://www.kurzweilai.net/pps/SU_Executive_Program/ Penryn (45 nm) (65 nm) Nehalem Core i7 (45 nm) Westmere i9 (32 nm) (est.) Ivy Bridge (22 nm) (est.)

7. Computing paradigm shifts Source: http://www.kurzweilai.net/pps/SU_Executive_Program/ ?

7. Evolving computational models Current model extensibility Linear, von Neumann Parallel Cloud, grid, distributed Biological models Novel electronic models Traditional model Quantum Optical computing Cell broadband engine Liquid computer New materials New architectures: 3D stacking Programmable matter Molecular electronics DNA nanotech DNA computing Biosensors Cellular colonies Bacterial intelligence Bioparadigm discovery Space, not time-based

7. ITRS 1 semiconductor roadmap 1 International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors Source: http://download.intel.com/technology/silicon/Paolo_Semicon_West_071904.pdf Intel: 2-3 more cycles of Moore’s Law planned Followed by 3D architectures, programmable matter 2009

Intel: 2-3 more cycles of Moore’s Law planned

Followed by 3D architectures, programmable matter

7. A central challenge in computing Top-down solutions EUV and block copolymer lithography CNT transistors Memristor Quantum-dot cellular automata Plasmonic materials & spintronics Quilt packaging & 3D stacking Bottom-up solutions DNA self-assembly DNA computing DNA-based transistors 3D DNA nanocrystals Molecular memory Structural DNA: Holliday junction Rotaxane Molecular propeller Source: http://futurememes.blogspot.com/2009/05/opportunities-in-level-two-nanoscience.html Nanoscience 32 nm 10 nm

Top-down solutions

EUV and block copolymer lithography

CNT transistors

Memristor

Quantum-dot cellular automata

Plasmonic materials & spintronics

Quilt packaging & 3D stacking

Bottom-up solutions

DNA self-assembly

DNA computing

DNA-based transistors

3D DNA nanocrystals

Molecular memory

8. Trajectory intersection 1 Source: Top 500, June 2009, http://www.top500.org/lists/2009/06, http://www.crn.com/hardware/208403186 2 Source: http://paula.univ.gda.pl/~dokgrk/bre01.html Arms race for the future of intelligence An estimated 20,000 trillion IPS and 1,000 TB memory 2 Limited operational/build knowledge Slow upgrade cycles: 10,000 year evolutionary adaptations Massively parallel architecture Understands flexible, fuzzy language General purpose problem solving, works well in new situations Nucleotide chassis, no backup possible IBM Roadrunner 1.105 petaflop/s (>1,100 trillion IPS) and 80 TB memory 1 Unlimited operational/build knowledge Quick upgrade cycles: performance capability doubling every 18 months Linear, von Neumann architecture Understands rigid language Special purpose problem solving (Deep Blue, Chinook, ATMs, fraud detection) Metal chassis, easy to backup Human Machine

An estimated 20,000 trillion IPS and 1,000 TB memory 2

Limited operational/build knowledge

Slow upgrade cycles: 10,000 year evolutionary adaptations

Massively parallel architecture

Understands flexible, fuzzy language

General purpose problem solving, works well in new situations

Nucleotide chassis, no backup possible

IBM Roadrunner 1.105 petaflop/s (>1,100 trillion IPS) and 80 TB memory 1

Unlimited operational/build knowledge

Quick upgrade cycles: performance capability doubling every 18 months

Linear, von Neumann architecture

Understands rigid language

Special purpose problem solving (Deep Blue, Chinook, ATMs, fraud detection)

Metal chassis, easy to backup

Source: http://www.kurzweilai.net/pps/SU_Executive_Program/ 1 http://www.top500.org/lists/2009/06, http://www.top500.org/system/8968 2 http://paula.univ.gda.pl/~dokgrk/bre01.html 8. Full human neural simulation est: 2018 Average human: an estimated 20,000 trillion IPS and 1,000 TB memory 2 IBM Roadrunner: 1.1 petaflop/s (>1,100 trillion IPS) and 80 TB memory 1

8. Engineering life into technology 2029 1 Machine Human Human ′ ? Capability Year Source: MS Futures Group, March 2009 Biomolecular interface convergence 1 Source: The Singularity is Near

Futures frameworks review 1. Tech level 2. Dimensional 3. Chronological 4. Velocity 5. FutureThink 6. Conceptual shifts 7. Drivers 8. Intersection

Prediction markets Speculative market Purpose: make predictions Value: expose hidden information Pay-off: monetary, reputational, indirect Accuracy: better than conventional forecasting 1 Examples: InTrade, IEM, HSX, LongBets Structure Event outcome (win/loss) Market scoring (continuum) 1 Source: Arrow, K.J. et al “The Promise of Prediction Markets” Science, 2008 , 320, 5878, 877-878 http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/summary/320/5878/877 Iowa Electronic Markets: 2008 Democratic Convention Market Clinton Obama Image: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/13/IEM_DCON2008.svg

Speculative market

Purpose: make predictions

Value: expose hidden information

Pay-off: monetary, reputational, indirect

Accuracy: better than conventional forecasting 1

Examples:

InTrade, IEM, HSX, LongBets

Structure

Event outcome (win/loss)

Market scoring (continuum)

Futures simulation workshop You are the world’s leading venture capitalists 5 teams, $1 billion to invest STR – Political, Economic, Legal, Social Institutions NAN – Nanotechnology LIF – Life Sciences (Biotechnology & Medicine) AIC – AI, Robotics, Computing and Communications ENE – Energy, Environmental Systems and Space

You are the world’s leading venture capitalists

5 teams, $1 billion to invest

Futures simulation workshop Round 1: 2009 – 2020 Each team creates two plausible future technology ideas to pitch to the other teams Each person votes by investing in the top technologies Winning teams and technologies are those that garner the most investment Image: Natasha Vita-More, Primo Posthuman

Round 1: 2009 – 2020

Each team creates two plausible future technology ideas to pitch to the other teams

Each person votes by investing in the top technologies

Winning teams and technologies are those that garner the most investment

Thank you Melanie Swan Principal MS Futures Group 415-505-4426 [email_address] www.melanieswan.com Slides: http://slideshare.net/LaBlogga/slideshows Creative Commons 3.0 license Image: http://wall.alphacoders.com/