Futures Frameworks Simulation
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Futures Frameworks Simulation

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Frameworks are needed to understand the meaning of simultaneous rapid technology change across fields. Eight frameworks are presented grouping technology advances by parameter, identifying overarching ...

Frameworks are needed to understand the meaning of simultaneous rapid technology change across fields. Eight frameworks are presented grouping technology advances by parameter, identifying overarching principles and concepts, evaluating constituent enablers and investigating how trajectories might intersect.

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Futures Frameworks Simulation Presentation Transcript

  • 1. Future Frameworks Simulation Workshop Melanie Swan Principal MS Futures Group +1-650-681-9482 [email_address] www.melanieswan.com November 9, 2009 Slides: http://slideshare.net/LaBlogga/slideshows “ The future is something which every one reaches at the rate of sixty miles an hour, whatever he does, whoever he is.” - C. S. Lewis Image: http://wall.alphacoders.com/
  • 2. Futures analysis techniques
    • Short term (0-5 yrs): some degree of insight and certainty
      • Forecasting
      • Scanning
      • Business intelligence
      • Trend analysis
      • Market research
      • Outlier identification
      • Technology evaluation checklist
    Future frameworks November 9, 2009
    • Long term (5-20+ yrs): uncertainty, discontinuity
      • Frameworks
      • Scenario planning
      • Simulation
      • Wild-carding
      • Longitudinal studies
    • Multiple time frames
      • Prediction markets
    Image: Bill Frymire
  • 3. The problem: pervasive change Future frameworks November 9, 2009 Botnets Chromallocyte Life extension Swarm computing Synthetic biology Virtual reality Quantum computing Genomics 22 nm Electric vehicles 3D printing Smart phones Supercomputing 3D printing Neuroimaging DIYbio Automatic markets Cloud computing Programmable matter Autonomous robotics New battery chemistry Affordable space launch 4G Cyber terrorism Pandemic Molecular nanotechnology Algal fuel Minimal genomes Brain-computer interfaces (BCIs) Body area networks (BANs) Radiosurgery Cell broadband engine Positional assembly Peer-to-peer finance RFID Post-scarcity economy Smartgrid Rich attribute knowledge Fuel cell Nanoparticles Agalmics Knowledge engineering Solar power
  • 4. The solution: futures frameworks
    • Technological level
    • Dimensional model
    • Chronological model
    • Velocity paradigms
    • FutureThink principles
    • Conceptual shifts
    • Underlying drivers
    • Trajectory intersection
    Future frameworks November 9, 2009 Image: http://www.newsin3d.com Image: http://www.secondlife.com
  • 5. 1. Technological level Future frameworks November 9, 2009 Capability, technology, application or effect? Level 1 Enabler: Capability Research Labs Level 2 Enabler: Technology Startups Level 3 Enabler: Application Corporations Level 4 Enabler: Implication Societies
    • Mechanosynthesis
    • New battery chemistry
    • Exaflop computing
    • Knowledge representation
    • 4G / WiMAX
    • 22 nm node chips
    • Long DNA sequence reads
    • 1 GB broadband
    • Molecular nanotechnology
    • Next-gen batteries
    • Natural language processing
    • TV on mobile phones
    • Facial recognition
    • Whole human DNA & RNA sequencing
    • Neuroimaging
    • Molecular synthesizer
    • Electric vehicles
    • Artificial intelligence
    • Brain-computer interface
    • 3D printer
    • Million member clinical trial cohorts
    • Digital human mindfile
    • iPhone
    • FaceConnector
    • Post-scarcity economy
    • Geopolitical shifts
    • Gas-powered cars obsolete
    • Global service economy outsourced to automation
    • Chronic disease disappears
    • Remote medical diagnosis
  • 6. 2. Dimensional model Future frameworks November 9, 2009 Nanotechnology Medicine, Neuroscience and Human Enhancement Biotechnology and Bioinformatics Artificial Intelligence and Robotics Energy and Environmental Systems Networks and Computing Systems A unifying framework for SU track synthesis
  • 7. 3. Chronological model Future frameworks November 9, 2009 The ultimate future depends on the order in which advances arrive Artificial intelligence Molecular nanotechnology Anti-aging therapies Whole human genome New computing paradigm Robotics Neural implants Electric vehicles Affordable space launch 3D printing Synthetic biology Space-based civilization New energy regime Uploading Modification of human biological drives Time (years) 2009-2020 2020-2030 2030-2050 +10 +20 +40 Brain emulation Room- temperature superconductivity Mechanosynthesis 1 GB broadband Battery innovation THz computing era
  • 8. 4. Velocity: paradigms of growth
    • Linear
      • Economic, demographic, life span phenomena
    • Exponential
      • Technology: processors, memory, storage, communications, iPhone applications
    • Discontinuous
      • Plane, car, radio, wars, radar, nuclear weapons, satellites, computers, Internet, social networks
      • Difficult to predict
        • Rapid transition time and doubling capability
        • Adjacent technology advances
    Future frameworks November 9, 2009 Exponential Discontinuous Linear
  • 9. 4. Discontinuity and adjacent advances Future frameworks November 9, 2009 1Source: http://www.hansonrobotics.com/Hanson-Robots_March-14-09.pdf 2 Source: http://www.chem.ucla.edu/houk/research.htm Innovation is interdisciplinary and interstitial Technology or Application Made possible by… iPod / MP3 players Disk miniaturization, longer battery life, business model for music download Blue Brain cortical simulation project Neuroimaging, infrared-DIC videomicroscopy, neuronal simulation software Protein folding simulation reaching to 1 ms Distributed computing, GPUs, Markov State models Telepresence Converged corporate telecoms services CardioMEMS Applying MEMS technology to pacemakers Zeno empathic robot – Hanson Robotics Battery, nanoporous materials advances 1 De novo enzyme design (Houk 2 ) Molecular dynamics, computational chemistry Nokia mobile phone leadership Digital technology (vs. Motorola’s analog) Nanoparticles/improved cancer treatment Molecular biology, molecular manufacturing Rapid prototyping and simulation RepRap, Fab@Home, 3D organ printing Political campaigns (B Obama, R Paul, H Dean) Social media, online fundraising
  • 10. 5. FutureThink: the mindset of the future
    • Increase in humaneness
      • Slavery, capital punishment
    • Increase in choices
      • Segment expansion (TiVo wedge)
      • Multiple choices, not either/or
    • Decrease in limitations
      • Earth habitability and carrying capacity
    • Continuation of conflict
      • Bioterror, surveillance, computer security
    Future frameworks November 9, 2009 Image: http://aki54.wdfiles.com
  • 11. 6. Conceptual shift: science Future frameworks November 9, 2009 Model and simulate Enumerate and experiment Build BioSpice.org SimTK.org PartsRegistry.org GeneGo (pathway modeling) Entelos virtual patient biosimulation FabAtHome.org
  • 12. 6. Conceptual shift: health Future frameworks November 9, 2009 Source: http://futurememes.blogspot.com/2009/10/preventive-medicine-and-docs-vs.html Out of work due to technological advance: elevator operator, stock broker, physician (?)
  • 13. Future frameworks November 9, 2009 7. Underlying drivers Source: http://www.kurzweilai.net/pps/SU_Executive_Program/ Penryn (45 nm) (65 nm) Nehalem Core i7 (45 nm) Westmere i9 (32 nm) (est.) Ivy Bridge (22 nm) (est.)
  • 14. 7. Computing paradigm shifts Future frameworks November 9, 2009 Source: http://www.kurzweilai.net/pps/SU_Executive_Program/ ?
  • 15. 7. Evolving computational models Future frameworks November 9, 2009 Current model extensibility Linear, von Neumann Parallel Cloud, grid, distributed Biological models Novel electronic models Traditional model Quantum Optical computing Cell broadband engine Liquid computer New materials New architectures: 3D stacking Programmable matter Molecular electronics DNA nanotech DNA computing Biosensors Cellular colonies Bacterial intelligence Bioparadigm discovery Space, not time-based
  • 16. 7. ITRS 1 semiconductor roadmap Future frameworks November 9, 2009 1 International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors Source: http://download.intel.com/technology/silicon/Paolo_Semicon_West_071904.pdf
    • Intel: 2-3 more cycles of Moore’s Law planned
    • Followed by 3-D architectures, programmable matter
    Node: half the distance between cells in a DRAM chip 2009
  • 17. 7. A central challenge in computing Future frameworks November 9, 2009
    • Top-down solutions
      • EUV and block copolymer lithography
      • CNT transistors
      • Memristor
      • Quantum-dot cellular automata
      • Plasmonic materials & spintronics
      • Quilt packaging & 3D stacking
    • Bottom-up solutions
      • DNA self-assembly
      • DNA computing
      • DNA-based transistors
      • 3D DNA nanocrystals
      • Molecular memory
    Structural DNA: Holliday junction Rotaxane Molecular propeller Source: http://futurememes.blogspot.com/2009/05/opportunities-in-level-two-nanoscience.html Nanoscience 32 nm 10 nm
  • 18. 8. Trajectory intersection Future frameworks November 9, 2009 1 Source: Top 500, June 2009, http://www.top500.org/lists/2009/06, http://www.crn.com/hardware/208403186 2 Source: http://paula.univ.gda.pl/~dokgrk/bre01.html Arms race for the future of intelligence Machine Human
    • IBM Roadrunner 1.105 petaflop/s (>1,100 trillion IPS) and 80 TB memory 1
    • Unlimited operational/build knowledge
    • Quick upgrade cycles: performance capability doubling every 18 months
    • Linear, von Neumann architecture
    • Understands rigid language
    • Special purpose problem solving (Deep Blue, Chinook, ATMs, fraud detection)
    • Metal chassis, easy to backup
    • An estimated 20,000 trillion IPS and 1,000 TB memory 2
    • Limited operational/build knowledge
    • Slow upgrade cycles: 10,000 year evolutionary adaptations
    • Massively parallel architecture
    • Understands flexible, fuzzy language
    • General purpose problem solving, works well in new situations
    • Nucleotide chassis, no backup possible
  • 19. Future frameworks November 9, 2009 Source: http://www.kurzweilai.net/pps/SU_Executive_Program/ 1 http://www.top500.org/lists/2009/06, http://www.top500.org/system/8968 2 http://paula.univ.gda.pl/~dokgrk/bre01.html 8. Full human neural simulation est: 2018 Average human: an estimated 20,000 trillion IPS and 1,000 TB memory 2 IBM Roadrunner: 1.1 petaflop/s (>1,100 trillion IPS) and 80 TB memory 1
  • 20. 8. Engineering life into technology Future frameworks November 9, 2009 2029 1 Machine Human Human ′ ? Capability Year Source: MS Futures Group, March 2009 Biomolecular interface convergence 1 Source: The Singularity is Near
  • 21. Futures frameworks review Future frameworks November 9, 2009 1. Tech level 2. Dimensional 3. Chronological 4. Velocity 5. FutureThink 6. Conceptual shifts 7. Drivers 8. Intersection
  • 22. Prediction markets Future frameworks November 9, 2009
    • Speculative market
      • Purpose: make predictions
      • Value: expose hidden information
      • Pay-off: monetary, reputational, indirect
      • Accuracy: better than conventional forecasting 1
    • Examples:
      • InTrade, IEM, HSX, LongBets
    • Structure
      • Event outcome (win/loss)
      • Market scoring (continuum)
    1 Source: Arrow, K.J. et al “The Promise of Prediction Markets” Science, 2008, 320, 5878, 877-878 http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/summary/320/5878/877 Iowa Electronic Markets: 2008 Democratic Convention Market Clinton Obama Image: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/13/IEM_DCON2008.svg
  • 23. Futures simulation workshop Future frameworks November 9, 2009
    • You are the world’s leading venture capitalists
      • 5 teams, $1 billion to invest
    STR – Political, Economic, Legal, Social Institutions NAN – Nanotechnology LIF – Life Sciences (Biotechnology & Medicine) AIC – AI, Robotics, Computing and Communications ENE – Energy, Environmental Systems and Space
  • 24. Futures simulation workshop Future frameworks November 9, 2009
    • Round 1: 2009 – 2020
    • Each team creates two plausible future technology ideas to pitch to the other teams
    • Each person votes by investing in the top technologies
    • Winning teams and technologies are those that garner the most investment
    Image: Natasha Vita-More, Primo Posthuman
  • 25. Thank you Melanie Swan Principal MS Futures Group +1-650-681-9482 [email_address] www.melanieswan.com Slides: http://slideshare.net/LaBlogga/slideshows Creative Commons 3.0 license Image: http://wall.alphacoders.com/