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The Future of Technology Melanie Swan Research Associate MS Futures Group Palo Alto, CA +1-650-681-9482 [email_address] http://www.melanieswan.com Technology And Society Committee November 11, 2008 Slides: http://www.slideshare.net/lablogga/slideshows
Summary ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Image: Fausto de Martini
Paradigms of growth and change ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Exponential Discontinuous Linear
Extensibility of Moore’s Law Source: Ray Kurzweil, http://www.KurzweilAI.net/pps/ACC2005/ Penryn 45 nm, 410-800m transistors Core 2  65 nm, 291m transistors Transistors per microprocessor
Evolution of computing Sources: ITRS Semiconductor Roadmap, http://download.intel.com/technology/silicon/Paolo_Semicon_West_071904.pdf,  http://www.intel.com/technology/architecture-silicon/32nm/index.htm,  http://www.siliconvalleysleuth.com/2007/01/a_look_inside_i.html ,[object Object],2009 Intel Penryn 45nm high-k and metal gate chip Metal Gate High-k Insulator Silicon substrate Drain Source
Future of computing Current model extensibility Linear, von Neumann Parallel Cloud, grid, distributed Biological models Novel models Traditional model Quantum Optical computing Cell broadband engine Liquid computer New materials 3D chip stacking Molecular electronics Solar transistors DNA computing Biosensors Cellular colonies Bacterial intelligence New paradigm discovery
Tool complexity growing ,[object Object],[object Object],Flow cytometer Gas chromatograph Mass spectrometer Allen array telescope Scanning tunneling electron microscope Protein crystallographer Hardware Software: operating Software: analytics
What might be the next Internet? Artificial intelligence Molecular nanotechnology Anti-aging therapies Virtual environments New computing models Robotics Brain-computer interfaces Personalized medicine Affordable space launch 3D printing, fabbing Synthetic biology Alternative energy Mobile applications
Biology evolves from art to information science to engineering problem ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Sources: http://www.economist.com/background/displaystory.cfm?story_id=7854314,  http://www.molsci.org/%7Ercarlson/Carlson_Pace_and_Prolif.pdf  DNA Synthesizer Variation: SNP
Life sciences advances ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Personalized medicine Health social networks PartsRegistry.org iGEM competition BioSpice.org SimTK.org
Extending lifespan and healthspan ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],U.S. Life Expectancy, 1850 – 2050e 83 77 69 50 39 http://www.realage.com   http://gosset.wharton.upenn.edu/mortality/perl/CalcForm.html Research to repair and reverse the damage of aging The Methuselah Foundation Source: http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0005140.html  Source: http://earthtrends.wri.org/text/population-health/variable-379.html
Molecular nanotechnology  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Images: http://www.imm.org, http://www.rfreitas.com, http://www.foresight.org, http://www.e-drexler.org ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Scanning tunneling electron microscope  Molecular synthesizer MEMS ratchet Molecular mill Molecular motor Molecular scaffold Microgripper
Arms race for the future of intelligence 1 Source: Top 500, June 2008, http://www.top500.org/lists/2008/06, http://www.top500.org/system/8968, http://www.crn.com/hardware/208403186 2 Source: http://paula.univ.gda.pl/~dokgrk/bre01.html Machine Human ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Status of intelligence research ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Leonardo IBM Rat Cortical Column Brain Emulation Roadmap Mouse brain block and cortex slice Emotiv brain computer interface gaming helmet
Virtual environments ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Wild Divine NTT’s Aromatic Display IBM’s Virtual NOC LAX Air Traffic Data 3D Stock Charts Heads-up Display Data Overlay Blended Reality Conference Google Earth GPS Life-logging rig
Physics and space ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Chang’e-1 Space Elevator and Climber Competition SpaceX Spaceport America, NM Google Lunar X Prize Space-based Power Virgin Galactic Armadillo Aerospace
What might be the next Internet? Artificial intelligence Molecular nanotechnology Anti-aging therapies Virtual environments New computing models Robotics Brain-computer interfaces Personalized medicine Affordable space launch 3D printing, fabbing Synthetic biology Alternative energy Mobile applications
Summary ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Thank you Melanie Swan Research Associate MS Futures Group Palo Alto, CA +1-650-681-9482 [email_address] http://www.melanieswan.com Slides: http://www.slideshare.net/lablogga/slideshows

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Future of Technology - Nov 2008 update

  • 1. The Future of Technology Melanie Swan Research Associate MS Futures Group Palo Alto, CA +1-650-681-9482 [email_address] http://www.melanieswan.com Technology And Society Committee November 11, 2008 Slides: http://www.slideshare.net/lablogga/slideshows
  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 4. Extensibility of Moore’s Law Source: Ray Kurzweil, http://www.KurzweilAI.net/pps/ACC2005/ Penryn 45 nm, 410-800m transistors Core 2 65 nm, 291m transistors Transistors per microprocessor
  • 5.
  • 6. Future of computing Current model extensibility Linear, von Neumann Parallel Cloud, grid, distributed Biological models Novel models Traditional model Quantum Optical computing Cell broadband engine Liquid computer New materials 3D chip stacking Molecular electronics Solar transistors DNA computing Biosensors Cellular colonies Bacterial intelligence New paradigm discovery
  • 7.
  • 8. What might be the next Internet? Artificial intelligence Molecular nanotechnology Anti-aging therapies Virtual environments New computing models Robotics Brain-computer interfaces Personalized medicine Affordable space launch 3D printing, fabbing Synthetic biology Alternative energy Mobile applications
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 11.
  • 12.
  • 13.
  • 14.
  • 15.
  • 16.
  • 17. What might be the next Internet? Artificial intelligence Molecular nanotechnology Anti-aging therapies Virtual environments New computing models Robotics Brain-computer interfaces Personalized medicine Affordable space launch 3D printing, fabbing Synthetic biology Alternative energy Mobile applications
  • 18.
  • 19. Thank you Melanie Swan Research Associate MS Futures Group Palo Alto, CA +1-650-681-9482 [email_address] http://www.melanieswan.com Slides: http://www.slideshare.net/lablogga/slideshows