Future of Technology - Jan 2008 update

The Future of Technology January 2008 Melanie Swan MS Futures Group Palo Alto, CA 415-505-4426 [email_address] http//www.melanieswan.com

Summary
Growth paradigms are not just linear and exponential, most importantly they are discontinuous
The realm of technology is no longer discrete, technology is imbuing other areas with exponential and discontinuous change
Computation (hardware and software) outlook: Moore’s Law improvements likely to continue unabated in hardware; software faces challenges
Next fifty years: linear and exponential growth and possibly a discontinuous change with greater impact than the Internet
Image: Fausto de Martini

Paradigms of growth and change
Linear
Economic, demographic, life span phenomena
Exponential
Technology: processors, memory, storage, communications, Facebook applications
Discontinuous
Plane, car, radio, wars, radar, nuclear weapons, satellites, computers, Internet, globalization
Impossible to predict
Evaluate rapid transition time and doubling capability
Cascading technology advances from adjacent areas
Exponential Discontinuous Linear

What will be the next Internet?
The future depends on which coming revolution occurs first
Artificial Intelligence Molecular Nanotechnology Anti-aging Therapies Metaverse Technologies Quantum Computing Robotics Intelligence Augmentation Personalized Medicine Affordable Space Launch Fabbing Synthetic Biology

Evolution of computation
Future of computing
New materials
3d circuits
Quantum computing
Molecular electronics
Optical computing
DNA computing
Electro-mechanical Relay Vacuum tube Transistor Integrated circuit ? Source: Ray Kurzweil, http://www.KurzweilAI.net/pps/ACC2005/

Extensibility of Moore’s Law Source: Ray Kurzweil, http://www.KurzweilAI.net/pps/ACC2005/ Transistors per microprocessor Penryn 45 nm, 410-800m transistors Core 2 65 nm, 291m transistors

Current semiconductor advancements Source: http://www.siliconvalleysleuth.com/2007/01/a_look_inside_i.html Standard Silicon Transistor High-k + Metal Gate Transistor Historical semiconductors 65nm+ Intel Penryn 45nm chip, shipping fall 2007 Metal Gate High-k Insulator Silicon substrate Drain Drain Source Source Silicon substrate SiO 2 Insulator

ITRS semiconductor roadmap leads the way Source: http://download.intel.com/technology/silicon/Paolo_Semicon_West_071904.pdf 2009
32 nm 2009, 22 nm 2011, molecular manufacturing needed for 10 nm

Software remains challenging
Abstract, difficult to measure
Doubling each 6-10 years
Wirth’s law: “Software gets slower faster than hardware gets faster ”
Failure of large projects (FAA, CIA)
19 m programmers worldwide in 2010 1
Possible improvements
Open source vs. proprietary systems
Interoperability testing
Standards, reusable modules
Web 2.0 software for the enterprise
Software to write software
1 Source: http://www.itfacts.biz/index.php?id=P8481 Lady Ada Lovelace

Arms race for the future of intelligence 1 Source: Fastest Supercomputer, November 2007, http://www.top500.org/system/8968 2 Source: http://paula.univ.gda.pl/~dokgrk/bre01.html
An estimated 20,000 trillion IPS and 1,000 TB memory 2
Limited operational/build knowledge
Slow upgrade cycles: 10,000 year evolutionary adaptations
Massively parallel architecture
Understands flexible, fuzzy language
General purpose problem solving, works fine in new situations
Nucleotide chassis, no backup possible
Blue Gene/L 596 teraFLOPS (>596 trillion IPS) and 74 TB memory 1
Unlimited operational/build knowledge
Quick upgrade cycles: performance capability doubling every 18 months
Linear, Von Neumann architecture
Understands rigid language
Special purpose problem solving (Deep Blue, Chinook, ATMs, fraud detection)
Metal chassis, easy to backup
Human Machine

Artificial intelligence: current status
Approaches
Symbolic, statistical, evolutionary algorithms, learning algorithms, mechanistic, hybrid
Current initiatives
Narrow AI: DARPA, corporate
Strong AI: startups
Nearer-term applications
Auditory, visual, transportation
Format
Robotic
Distributed
Virtual
Non-corporeal
DGC: Boss, 2007

Molecular nanotechnology
Definition
3D atomically precise placement
Scale
Human hair: 80,000 nm
Limit of human vision: 10,000 nm
Virus: 50 nm, DNA: 2 nm
Atom 0.1 nm
Tools
Microscopy
Mills, motors
Image sources: http://www.imm.org, http://www.rfreitas.com, http://www.foresight.org, http://www.e-drexler.org

Fabbing
Community fabs
MIT Fab Labs
Make, TechShop
Personal 3d printing
Fab@Home, RepRap, Evil
Personal manufacturing
Ponoko
Fabjectory
Cornell Fab@Home RepRap Evil Labs Fabjectory

Biotechnology
Biology: information science
Genomics
DNA Sequencing
DNA Synthesizing
Variation: SNPs
Proteomics, other “-omics”
Sources: http://www.economist.com/background/displaystory.cfm?story_id=7854314, http://www.molsci.org/%7Ercarlson/Carlson_Pace_and_Prolif.pdf DNA Synthesizer Variation: SNP

Anti-aging and radical life extension
Aging is a pathology
Immortality is not hubristic and unnatural
Aubrey de Grey: Strategies for Engineered Negligible Senescence (SENS)
Nucleic and mitochondrial mutations
Intracellular and extracellular junk
Cell loss and senescence
Extracellular crosslinks
Solutions and escape velocity
Mutation anti-suppressors
Bioremediation
Cell strengthening
Real age estimation tests
U.S. Life Expectancy, 1850 – 2050e 83 77 69 50 39 http://www.realage.com http://gosset.wharton.upenn.edu/mortality/perl/CalcForm.html Research to repair and reverse the damage of aging The Methuselah Foundation Source: http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0005140.html Source: http://earthtrends.wri.org/text/population-health/variable-379.html

Metaverse technologies
Demand for streaming video, data visualization, simulation and 3D data display
Detailed reality capture
Augmented reality
Blended reality
Alternate reality
Virtual worlds
Virtual reality 2.0
Wild Divine NTT’s Aromatic Display IBM’s Virtual NOC LAX Air Traffic Data 3D Stock Charts Heads-up Display Data Overlay Blended Reality Conference Google Earth GPS Life-logging rig

Affordable space launch
Government
Regular missions
New participants
Spaceport development
Commercial
Rocket launch
Space elevator
Prizes
NASA Centennial Challenges
X Prize Foundation
China’s Chang’e-1 Space Elevator and Climber Competition SpaceX Spaceport America, NM Google Lunar X Prize Space-based Solar Power Virgin Galactic

What will be the next Internet?
The future depends on which coming revolution occurs first
Artificial Intelligence Molecular Nanotechnology Anti-aging Therapies Metaverse Technologies Quantum Computing Robotics Intelligence Augmentation Personalized Medicine Affordable Space Launch Fabbing Synthetic Biology

Summary
Growth paradigms are not just linear and exponential, most importantly they are discontinuous
The realm of technology is no longer discrete, technology is imbuing other areas with exponential and discontinuous change
Computation (hardware and software) outlook: Moore’s Law improvements likely to continue unabated in hardware; software faces challenges
Next fifty years: linear and exponential growth and possibly a discontinuous change with greater impact than the Internet

Thank you Melanie Swan MS Futures Group Palo Alto, CA 415-505-4426 [email_address] http//www.melanieswan.com Slides: http//www.melanieswan.com/presentations Provided under an open source Creative Commons 3.0 license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/

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Future of Technology - Jan 2008 update

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