Future of Technology - Jan 2008 update

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What will be the next Internet? 11 revolutionary technologies are shaping the future: molecular nanotechnology, biotechnology and personalized medicine, synthetic biology, life extension and anti-aging therapies, robotics, artificial intelligence, intelligence augmentation, virtual reality, fabbing, quantum computing and affordable space launch.
This is a January 2008 update to the similar October 2007 presentation.

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  • Future of Technology - Jan 2008 update

    1. 1. The Future of Technology January 2008 Melanie Swan MS Futures Group Palo Alto, CA 415-505-4426 [email_address] http//www.melanieswan.com
    2. 2. Summary <ul><li>Growth paradigms are not just linear and exponential, most importantly they are discontinuous </li></ul><ul><li>The realm of technology is no longer discrete, technology is imbuing other areas with exponential and discontinuous change </li></ul><ul><li>Computation (hardware and software) outlook: Moore’s Law improvements likely to continue unabated in hardware; software faces challenges </li></ul><ul><li>Next fifty years: linear and exponential growth and possibly a discontinuous change with greater impact than the Internet </li></ul>Image: Fausto de Martini
    3. 3. Paradigms of growth and change <ul><li>Linear </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Economic, demographic, life span phenomena </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Exponential </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Technology: processors, memory, storage, communications, Facebook applications </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Discontinuous </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Plane, car, radio, wars, radar, nuclear weapons, satellites, computers, Internet, globalization </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Impossible to predict </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Evaluate rapid transition time and doubling capability </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Cascading technology advances from adjacent areas </li></ul></ul></ul>Exponential Discontinuous Linear
    4. 4. What will be the next Internet? <ul><li>The future depends on which coming revolution occurs first </li></ul>Artificial Intelligence Molecular Nanotechnology Anti-aging Therapies Metaverse Technologies Quantum Computing Robotics Intelligence Augmentation Personalized Medicine Affordable Space Launch Fabbing Synthetic Biology
    5. 5. Evolution of computation <ul><li>Future of computing </li></ul><ul><ul><li>New materials </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>3d circuits </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Quantum computing </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Molecular electronics </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Optical computing </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>DNA computing </li></ul></ul>Electro-mechanical Relay Vacuum tube Transistor Integrated circuit ? Source: Ray Kurzweil, http://www.KurzweilAI.net/pps/ACC2005/
    6. 6. Extensibility of Moore’s Law Source: Ray Kurzweil, http://www.KurzweilAI.net/pps/ACC2005/ Transistors per microprocessor Penryn 45 nm, 410-800m transistors Core 2 65 nm, 291m transistors
    7. 7. Current semiconductor advancements Source: http://www.siliconvalleysleuth.com/2007/01/a_look_inside_i.html Standard Silicon Transistor High-k + Metal Gate Transistor Historical semiconductors 65nm+ Intel Penryn 45nm chip, shipping fall 2007 Metal Gate High-k Insulator Silicon substrate Drain Drain Source Source Silicon substrate SiO 2 Insulator
    8. 8. ITRS semiconductor roadmap leads the way Source: http://download.intel.com/technology/silicon/Paolo_Semicon_West_071904.pdf 2009 <ul><li>32 nm 2009, 22 nm 2011, molecular manufacturing needed for 10 nm </li></ul>
    9. 9. Software remains challenging <ul><li>Abstract, difficult to measure </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Doubling each 6-10 years </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Wirth’s law: “Software gets slower faster than hardware gets faster ” </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Failure of large projects (FAA, CIA) </li></ul><ul><li>19 m programmers worldwide in 2010 1 </li></ul><ul><li>Possible improvements </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Open source vs. proprietary systems </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Interoperability testing </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Standards, reusable modules </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Web 2.0 software for the enterprise </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Software to write software </li></ul></ul>1 Source: http://www.itfacts.biz/index.php?id=P8481 Lady Ada Lovelace
    10. 10. Arms race for the future of intelligence 1 Source: Fastest Supercomputer, November 2007, http://www.top500.org/system/8968 2 Source: http://paula.univ.gda.pl/~dokgrk/bre01.html <ul><li>An estimated 20,000 trillion IPS and 1,000 TB memory 2 </li></ul><ul><li>Limited operational/build knowledge </li></ul><ul><li>Slow upgrade cycles: 10,000 year evolutionary adaptations </li></ul><ul><li>Massively parallel architecture </li></ul><ul><li>Understands flexible, fuzzy language </li></ul><ul><li>General purpose problem solving, works fine in new situations </li></ul><ul><li>Nucleotide chassis, no backup possible </li></ul><ul><li>Blue Gene/L 596 teraFLOPS (>596 trillion IPS) and 74 TB memory 1 </li></ul><ul><li>Unlimited operational/build knowledge </li></ul><ul><li>Quick upgrade cycles: performance capability doubling every 18 months </li></ul><ul><li>Linear, Von Neumann architecture </li></ul><ul><li>Understands rigid language </li></ul><ul><li>Special purpose problem solving (Deep Blue, Chinook, ATMs, fraud detection) </li></ul><ul><li>Metal chassis, easy to backup </li></ul>Human Machine
    11. 11. Artificial intelligence: current status <ul><li>Approaches </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Symbolic, statistical, evolutionary algorithms, learning algorithms, mechanistic, hybrid </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Current initiatives </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Narrow AI: DARPA, corporate </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Strong AI: startups </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Nearer-term applications </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Auditory, visual, transportation </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Format </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Robotic </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Distributed </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Virtual </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Non-corporeal </li></ul></ul>DGC: Boss, 2007
    12. 12. Molecular nanotechnology <ul><li>Definition </li></ul><ul><ul><li>3D atomically precise placement </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Scale </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Human hair: 80,000 nm </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Limit of human vision: 10,000 nm </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Virus: 50 nm, DNA: 2 nm </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Atom 0.1 nm </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Tools </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Microscopy </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Mills, motors </li></ul></ul>Image sources: http://www.imm.org, http://www.rfreitas.com, http://www.foresight.org, http://www.e-drexler.org
    13. 13. Fabbing <ul><li>Community fabs </li></ul><ul><ul><li>MIT Fab Labs </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Make, TechShop </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Personal 3d printing </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Fab@Home, RepRap, Evil </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Personal manufacturing </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Ponoko </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Fabjectory </li></ul></ul>Cornell Fab@Home RepRap Evil Labs Fabjectory
    14. 14. Biotechnology <ul><li>Biology: information science </li></ul><ul><li>Genomics </li></ul><ul><ul><li>DNA Sequencing </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>DNA Synthesizing </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Variation: SNPs </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Proteomics, other “-omics” </li></ul>Sources: http://www.economist.com/background/displaystory.cfm?story_id=7854314, http://www.molsci.org/%7Ercarlson/Carlson_Pace_and_Prolif.pdf DNA Synthesizer Variation: SNP
    15. 15. Anti-aging and radical life extension <ul><li>Aging is a pathology </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Immortality is not hubristic and unnatural </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Aubrey de Grey: Strategies for Engineered Negligible Senescence (SENS) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Nucleic and mitochondrial mutations </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Intracellular and extracellular junk </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Cell loss and senescence </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Extracellular crosslinks </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Solutions and escape velocity </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Mutation anti-suppressors </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Bioremediation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Cell strengthening </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Real age estimation tests </li></ul>U.S. Life Expectancy, 1850 – 2050e 83 77 69 50 39 http://www.realage.com http://gosset.wharton.upenn.edu/mortality/perl/CalcForm.html Research to repair and reverse the damage of aging The Methuselah Foundation Source: http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0005140.html Source: http://earthtrends.wri.org/text/population-health/variable-379.html
    16. 16. Metaverse technologies <ul><li>Demand for streaming video, data visualization, simulation and 3D data display </li></ul><ul><li>Detailed reality capture </li></ul><ul><li>Augmented reality </li></ul><ul><li>Blended reality </li></ul><ul><li>Alternate reality </li></ul><ul><li>Virtual worlds </li></ul><ul><li>Virtual reality 2.0 </li></ul>Wild Divine NTT’s Aromatic Display IBM’s Virtual NOC LAX Air Traffic Data 3D Stock Charts Heads-up Display Data Overlay Blended Reality Conference Google Earth GPS Life-logging rig
    17. 17. Affordable space launch <ul><li>Government </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Regular missions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>New participants </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Spaceport development </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Commercial </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Rocket launch </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Space elevator </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Prizes </li></ul><ul><ul><li>NASA Centennial Challenges </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>X Prize Foundation </li></ul></ul>China’s Chang’e-1 Space Elevator and Climber Competition SpaceX Spaceport America, NM Google Lunar X Prize Space-based Solar Power Virgin Galactic
    18. 18. What will be the next Internet? <ul><li>The future depends on which coming revolution occurs first </li></ul>Artificial Intelligence Molecular Nanotechnology Anti-aging Therapies Metaverse Technologies Quantum Computing Robotics Intelligence Augmentation Personalized Medicine Affordable Space Launch Fabbing Synthetic Biology
    19. 19. Summary <ul><li>Growth paradigms are not just linear and exponential, most importantly they are discontinuous </li></ul><ul><li>The realm of technology is no longer discrete, technology is imbuing other areas with exponential and discontinuous change </li></ul><ul><li>Computation (hardware and software) outlook: Moore’s Law improvements likely to continue unabated in hardware; software faces challenges </li></ul><ul><li>Next fifty years: linear and exponential growth and possibly a discontinuous change with greater impact than the Internet </li></ul>
    20. 20. Thank you Melanie Swan MS Futures Group Palo Alto, CA 415-505-4426 [email_address] http//www.melanieswan.com Slides: http//www.melanieswan.com/presentations Provided under an open source Creative Commons 3.0 license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/

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