The Future of Technology January 2008 Melanie Swan MS Futures Group Palo Alto, CA 415-505-4426 [email_address] http//www.melanieswan.com

Summary Growth paradigms are not just linear and exponential, most importantly they are discontinuous The realm of technology is no longer discrete, technology is imbuing other areas with exponential and discontinuous change Computation (hardware and software) outlook: Moore’s Law improvements likely to continue unabated in hardware; software faces challenges Next fifty years: linear and exponential growth and possibly a discontinuous change with greater impact than the Internet Image: Fausto de Martini

Growth paradigms are not just linear and exponential, most importantly they are discontinuous

The realm of technology is no longer discrete, technology is imbuing other areas with exponential and discontinuous change

Computation (hardware and software) outlook: Moore’s Law improvements likely to continue unabated in hardware; software faces challenges

Next fifty years: linear and exponential growth and possibly a discontinuous change with greater impact than the Internet

Paradigms of growth and change Linear Economic, demographic, life span phenomena Exponential Technology: processors, memory, storage, communications, Facebook applications Discontinuous Plane, car, radio, wars, radar, nuclear weapons, satellites, computers, Internet, globalization Impossible to predict Evaluate rapid transition time and doubling capability Cascading technology advances from adjacent areas Exponential Discontinuous Linear

Linear

Economic, demographic, life span phenomena

Exponential

Technology: processors, memory, storage, communications, Facebook applications

Discontinuous

Plane, car, radio, wars, radar, nuclear weapons, satellites, computers, Internet, globalization

Impossible to predict

Evaluate rapid transition time and doubling capability

Cascading technology advances from adjacent areas

What will be the next Internet? The future depends on which coming revolution occurs first Artificial Intelligence Molecular Nanotechnology Anti-aging Therapies Metaverse Technologies Quantum Computing Robotics Intelligence Augmentation Personalized Medicine Affordable Space Launch Fabbing Synthetic Biology

The future depends on which coming revolution occurs first

Evolution of computation Future of computing New materials 3d circuits Quantum computing Molecular electronics Optical computing DNA computing Electro-mechanical Relay Vacuum tube Transistor Integrated circuit ? Source: Ray Kurzweil, http://www.KurzweilAI.net/pps/ACC2005/

Future of computing

New materials

3d circuits

Quantum computing

Molecular electronics

Optical computing

DNA computing

Extensibility of Moore’s Law Source: Ray Kurzweil, http://www.KurzweilAI.net/pps/ACC2005/ Transistors per microprocessor Penryn 45 nm, 410-800m transistors Core 2 65 nm, 291m transistors

Current semiconductor advancements Source: http://www.siliconvalleysleuth.com/2007/01/a_look_inside_i.html Standard Silicon Transistor High-k + Metal Gate Transistor Historical semiconductors 65nm+ Intel Penryn 45nm chip, shipping fall 2007 Metal Gate High-k Insulator Silicon substrate Drain Drain Source Source Silicon substrate SiO 2 Insulator

ITRS semiconductor roadmap leads the way Source: http://download.intel.com/technology/silicon/Paolo_Semicon_West_071904.pdf 2009 32 nm 2009, 22 nm 2011, molecular manufacturing needed for 10 nm

32 nm 2009, 22 nm 2011, molecular manufacturing needed for 10 nm

Software remains challenging Abstract, difficult to measure Doubling each 6-10 years Wirth’s law: “Software gets slower faster than hardware gets faster ” Failure of large projects (FAA, CIA) 19 m programmers worldwide in 2010 1 Possible improvements Open source vs. proprietary systems Interoperability testing Standards, reusable modules Web 2.0 software for the enterprise Software to write software 1 Source: http://www.itfacts.biz/index.php?id=P8481 Lady Ada Lovelace

Abstract, difficult to measure

Doubling each 6-10 years

Wirth’s law: “Software gets slower faster than hardware gets faster ”

Failure of large projects (FAA, CIA)

19 m programmers worldwide in 2010 1

Possible improvements

Open source vs. proprietary systems

Interoperability testing

Standards, reusable modules

Web 2.0 software for the enterprise

Software to write software

Arms race for the future of intelligence 1 Source: Fastest Supercomputer, November 2007, http://www.top500.org/system/8968 2 Source: http://paula.univ.gda.pl/~dokgrk/bre01.html An estimated 20,000 trillion IPS and 1,000 TB memory 2 Limited operational/build knowledge Slow upgrade cycles: 10,000 year evolutionary adaptations Massively parallel architecture Understands flexible, fuzzy language General purpose problem solving, works fine in new situations Nucleotide chassis, no backup possible Blue Gene/L 596 teraFLOPS (>596 trillion IPS) and 74 TB memory 1 Unlimited operational/build knowledge Quick upgrade cycles: performance capability doubling every 18 months Linear, Von Neumann architecture Understands rigid language Special purpose problem solving (Deep Blue, Chinook, ATMs, fraud detection) Metal chassis, easy to backup Human Machine

An estimated 20,000 trillion IPS and 1,000 TB memory 2

Limited operational/build knowledge

Slow upgrade cycles: 10,000 year evolutionary adaptations

Massively parallel architecture

Understands flexible, fuzzy language

General purpose problem solving, works fine in new situations

Nucleotide chassis, no backup possible

Blue Gene/L 596 teraFLOPS (>596 trillion IPS) and 74 TB memory 1

Unlimited operational/build knowledge

Quick upgrade cycles: performance capability doubling every 18 months

Linear, Von Neumann architecture

Understands rigid language

Special purpose problem solving (Deep Blue, Chinook, ATMs, fraud detection)

Metal chassis, easy to backup

Artificial intelligence: current status Approaches Symbolic, statistical, evolutionary algorithms, learning algorithms, mechanistic, hybrid Current initiatives Narrow AI: DARPA, corporate Strong AI: startups Nearer-term applications Auditory, visual, transportation Format Robotic Distributed Virtual Non-corporeal DGC: Boss, 2007

Approaches

Symbolic, statistical, evolutionary algorithms, learning algorithms, mechanistic, hybrid

Current initiatives

Narrow AI: DARPA, corporate

Strong AI: startups

Nearer-term applications

Auditory, visual, transportation

Format

Robotic

Distributed

Virtual

Non-corporeal

Molecular nanotechnology Definition 3D atomically precise placement Scale Human hair: 80,000 nm Limit of human vision: 10,000 nm Virus: 50 nm, DNA: 2 nm Atom 0.1 nm Tools Microscopy Mills, motors Image sources: http://www.imm.org, http://www.rfreitas.com, http://www.foresight.org, http://www.e-drexler.org

Definition

3D atomically precise placement

Scale

Human hair: 80,000 nm

Limit of human vision: 10,000 nm

Virus: 50 nm, DNA: 2 nm

Atom 0.1 nm

Tools

Microscopy

Mills, motors

Fabbing Community fabs MIT Fab Labs Make, TechShop Personal 3d printing Fab@Home, RepRap, Evil Personal manufacturing Ponoko Fabjectory Cornell Fab@Home RepRap Evil Labs Fabjectory

Community fabs

MIT Fab Labs

Make, TechShop

Personal 3d printing

Fab@Home, RepRap, Evil

Personal manufacturing

Ponoko

Fabjectory

Biotechnology Biology: information science Genomics DNA Sequencing DNA Synthesizing Variation: SNPs Proteomics, other “-omics” Sources: http://www.economist.com/background/displaystory.cfm?story_id=7854314, http://www.molsci.org/%7Ercarlson/Carlson_Pace_and_Prolif.pdf DNA Synthesizer Variation: SNP

Biology: information science

Genomics

DNA Sequencing

DNA Synthesizing

Variation: SNPs

Proteomics, other “-omics”

Anti-aging and radical life extension Aging is a pathology Immortality is not hubristic and unnatural Aubrey de Grey: Strategies for Engineered Negligible Senescence (SENS) Nucleic and mitochondrial mutations Intracellular and extracellular junk Cell loss and senescence Extracellular crosslinks Solutions and escape velocity Mutation anti-suppressors Bioremediation Cell strengthening Real age estimation tests U.S. Life Expectancy, 1850 – 2050e 83 77 69 50 39 http://www.realage.com http://gosset.wharton.upenn.edu/mortality/perl/CalcForm.html Research to repair and reverse the damage of aging The Methuselah Foundation Source: http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0005140.html Source: http://earthtrends.wri.org/text/population-health/variable-379.html

Aging is a pathology

Immortality is not hubristic and unnatural

Aubrey de Grey: Strategies for Engineered Negligible Senescence (SENS)

Nucleic and mitochondrial mutations

Intracellular and extracellular junk

Cell loss and senescence

Extracellular crosslinks

Solutions and escape velocity

Mutation anti-suppressors

Bioremediation

Cell strengthening

Real age estimation tests

Metaverse technologies Demand for streaming video, data visualization, simulation and 3D data display Detailed reality capture Augmented reality Blended reality Alternate reality Virtual worlds Virtual reality 2.0 Wild Divine NTT’s Aromatic Display IBM’s Virtual NOC LAX Air Traffic Data 3D Stock Charts Heads-up Display Data Overlay Blended Reality Conference Google Earth GPS Life-logging rig

Demand for streaming video, data visualization, simulation and 3D data display

Detailed reality capture

Augmented reality

Blended reality

Alternate reality

Virtual worlds

Virtual reality 2.0

Affordable space launch Government Regular missions New participants Spaceport development Commercial Rocket launch Space elevator Prizes NASA Centennial Challenges X Prize Foundation China’s Chang’e-1 Space Elevator and Climber Competition SpaceX Spaceport America, NM Google Lunar X Prize Space-based Solar Power Virgin Galactic

Government

Regular missions

New participants

Spaceport development

Commercial

Rocket launch

Space elevator

Prizes

NASA Centennial Challenges

X Prize Foundation

What will be the next Internet? The future depends on which coming revolution occurs first Artificial Intelligence Molecular Nanotechnology Anti-aging Therapies Metaverse Technologies Quantum Computing Robotics Intelligence Augmentation Personalized Medicine Affordable Space Launch Fabbing Synthetic Biology

The future depends on which coming revolution occurs first

Summary Growth paradigms are not just linear and exponential, most importantly they are discontinuous The realm of technology is no longer discrete, technology is imbuing other areas with exponential and discontinuous change Computation (hardware and software) outlook: Moore’s Law improvements likely to continue unabated in hardware; software faces challenges Next fifty years: linear and exponential growth and possibly a discontinuous change with greater impact than the Internet

Growth paradigms are not just linear and exponential, most importantly they are discontinuous

The realm of technology is no longer discrete, technology is imbuing other areas with exponential and discontinuous change

Computation (hardware and software) outlook: Moore’s Law improvements likely to continue unabated in hardware; software faces challenges

Next fifty years: linear and exponential growth and possibly a discontinuous change with greater impact than the Internet

Thank you Melanie Swan MS Futures Group Palo Alto, CA 415-505-4426 [email_address] http//www.melanieswan.com Slides: http//www.melanieswan.com/presentations Provided under an open source Creative Commons 3.0 license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/